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Author Topic: How many months left until recession?  (Read 230 times)
eaLiTy
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August 04, 2019, 08:52:09 PM
 #21

I don't think those economies will collapse. There will be some recession but not a collapse. Safe haven currency and treasuries will be the best things to store your money in, I believe.
There is nothing wrong in having a belief but we have seen global recession in the past and how the so called save heavens collapsed in the past, so you cannot completely neglect the fact that even the strongest economies right now could collapse, if you take the US economy the debt is increasing at an alarming rate, so basically there is no safe heaven and safe bonds that we could trust entirely, but one thing you cannot predict is the exact time about a recession and if predicting that is so easy, people would have taken precautions in the past and we all know what happened.



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August 04, 2019, 08:54:44 PM
 #22

I found this picture on reddit. Now it is clear to me why Trump wanted interest rate to decline more. He will have slim chances for re election if recession hit already this year. Sadly recession this or next year will not help Bitcoin at all. We might even see new bottom.



The S&P 500 was just making new ATHs last week, so let's not jump to conclusions yet. A lot needs to happen before we can pronounce the beginning of a recession. It could be next year. It could be three years out. Preferably, it'll wait until after Bitcoin's next bull cycle completes, like next year or 2021, because I agree a deep recession and crash in the equity markets would be bad news for Bitcoin.

this really means nothing. stocks are pumped by cheap money all around the globe for the last couple of years. the next recession will be very very hard. but as you already have said no one can predict when it will start. money can be printed for a long long time.  Roll Eyes

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August 04, 2019, 11:03:53 PM
 #23

I think the first proper sign of a recession that's about to kick in, is the US stock market to deflate. Gold has seen a decent increase lately, but it's more a technical rally than a rally driven by fear or uncertainty.

The thing here is that people keep saying that we're close to a recession (for like two years now), but so far we have only seen the US stock market indicate the opposite and make higher highs.

Another thing is that people are too easily convinced that it will help Bitcoin reach new highs and therefore hope we will go through a recession. I rather don't see a recession kick in because that will have nasty side effects.

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August 05, 2019, 09:08:35 AM
 #24

That's a good topic you raised there. Trump wanted to reduce the interest rates and as I know Fed did it a couple of days ago. But if you think about it, BTC was made especially for times like crisis. How will it meet the crisis, no one knows. It was created after the crisis of 2008. But will people really store their money in Bitcoin if the economy will fall? I doubt they will. Probably it will be USD, CHF, and JPY as always

It is unlikely Bitcoin is going to prosper in an all-out economic crisis or even meltdown

It is an effective hedge against minor currency devaluations in not so important countries (think Venezuela here), but if the major economies like those of the US, EU and China are going to suffer in a major way (and probably crash one after another in a domino-like sequence), all speculative assets will invariably hit the canvas. In such tumultuous times investors always move their capital to less risky assets (and Bitcoin is not one of them)

I don't think those economies will collapse. There will be some recession but not a collapse. Safe haven currency and treasuries will be the best things to store your money in, I believe

I don't particularly believe in that myself

But did anyone believe in the WWI on the eve of it? No one actually did or wanted that war (well, mostly) but it still happened. I mean things may escalate quickly and get out of control pretty fast. But even if major economies just go deep into recession in a semi-controllable way, the rest of the world will be writhing in pain and agony, as always. How and to what degree Bitcoin will be affected is largely unknown as we haven't yet been there. We have yet to find out how things are going to play out with cryptocurrencies if a new 2008 is to come

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August 05, 2019, 02:02:21 PM
 #25

I found this picture on reddit. Now it is clear to me why Trump wanted interest rate to decline more. He will have slim chances for re election if recession hit already this year. Sadly recession this or next year will not help Bitcoin at all. We might even see new bottom.

[im g]https://i.redd.it/6nibh2pkz3e31.png[/img]
What kind of recession are you expecting to happen, you think countries will still watch till they plunge into recession, when we talk of recession now, we don’t have to generalize it again, there can never be generally recession, it has been how many years now that people has been talking about recession, and yet we are not seeing any, is that not supposed to send signal already that many countries are already doing everything possible to avoid recession.

If they can guard against recession, then we should not expect any recession to happen. In my country, we already have our own recession silently which not many people knew about it and we are over already, so as some countries have had theirs at low key, so which recession are you then expecting that would make the world?




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August 05, 2019, 02:59:44 PM
 #26

Isn't it much more worrying the interest didn't reach it's precious high before they start reducing it again? I see a overall decline in peaks, doesn't that mean the economic boom was less strong than the previous one?

Yes, they have little firepower to fight recession. Many believe this will be the last recession and after it economists will forget about Keynes and revive Hayek. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d0nERTFo-Sk Economy is not as strong as in early 2000 because recession of 2008 was never really cured.


As somebody said: when everyone talks about upcoming crisis - there will be no crisis, but when everyone forgets about it - crisis will come. I might be quoting it wrong, but I also believe that nowadays as literally everyone knows about economic problems, everyone is prepared and tries to mitigate it - there is little chance of significant recession occurring. Temporary minor decline - possible, but not recession. And surely the countdown is not for months, but rather for few years.

When you have no weapons to fight it does not matter much if you know the enemy is at the gates. Just look at the graph. Normal interest rates should be from 2-5% and crisis used to start when were above 5%. Now are at 2% and in Europe at zero.

"Normal interest rates" - that's the issue with such logic. What used to be normal decades ago - not anymore, what was normal ages ago - not anymore. So the case with interest rates. So who said low interest rates are bad? Books or academicians? Well I guess if they would be so successful in economic planning and management - they would be the ones running the current economy Wink People live and predict collapse and recession already for at least 3-4 years as I remember. Every year new prophets come with their prediction of soon to collapse markets. But we just continue to see ATHs. So isn't is the new normal? If you wanna argue the interest rates then yes, the system itself is designed in such a way that credit collapses and grows will occur, but not necessarily because of too low or too high interest rates. There need to be many other factors to come into play (productivity, unemployment, social factors, and many others), or just one a major one (such as Lehman was, and now everyone expects Deutsche to be), but until then - prophets will continue forecasting recessions in the next X months/years, but nothing will change significantly without major disruption, as long as everything keeps going the way it is.
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August 06, 2019, 03:59:15 PM
Last edit: August 06, 2019, 04:36:04 PM by Febo
 #27

I found this picture on reddit. Now it is clear to me why Trump wanted interest rate to decline more. He will have slim chances for re election if recession hit already this year. Sadly recession this or next year will not help Bitcoin at all. We might even see new bottom.


What kind of recession are you expecting to happen, you think countries will still watch till they plunge into recession, when we talk of recession now, we don’t have to generalize it again, there can never be generally recession, it has been how many years now that people has been talking about recession, and yet we are not seeing any, is that not supposed to send signal already that many countries are already doing everything possible to avoid recession.

If they can guard against recession, then we should not expect any recession to happen. In my country, we already have our own recession silently which not many people knew about it and we are over already, so as some countries have had theirs at low key, so which recession are you then expecting that would make the world?

I dont know what kind. For sure global with China and USA leading it. Last recession was weak since it ignored China and China made it much easier for everyone else. It is gonna be huge. And there will be nothing to fight it.  And when they will want to bail out banks a year or two latter some political parties will oppose to it and start factorizing Bitcoin.

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