Interesting reads on future of Bitcoin price

[satb]

A couple of interesting reads on Bitcoin future price:

University of Cambridge UK - 2ND GLOBAL CRYPTOASSET BENCHMARKING STUDY

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf

Their ending note was:

Statements proclaiming the death of the cryptoasset industry have been made after every global
ecosystem bubble. While it is true that the 2017 bubble was the largest in Bitcoin’s history, the market
capitalisation of both Bitcoin and the cryptoasset ecosystem still exceeds its January 2017 levels –-
prior to the start of the bubble. This report has shown that the speculation of the death of the market
and ecosystem has been greatly exaggerated, and so it seems likely that the future expansion plans of
industry participants will, at most, be delayed.


The State of Bitcoin Long-Term Value Potential & Analysis

https://bit.ly/2UQBL95

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[butka]

Thanks for sharing this. The second article provides real wealth of bitcoin related information. There are many interesting points (like comparing the volatility of gold with the volatility of bitcoin), but what I found especially interesting is this:

Its censorship-resistant nature provides an attractive alternative to the private offshore banking system currently estimated to hold ~$8 trillion for individuals.

I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

[satb]

Thanks for sharing this. The second article provides real wealth of bitcoin related information. There are many interesting points (like comparing the volatility of gold with the volatility of bitcoin), but what I found especially interesting is this:

Its censorship-resistant nature provides an attractive alternative to the private offshore banking system currently estimated to hold ~$8 trillion for individuals.

I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

Agree.  It's a massive untapped market.  Even if a small percentage of of these users used Bitcoin as an alternative to private offshore banking system would substantially increase BTC USD value (and also save vast amounts on private bank fees); they'll actually own their private keys rather than putting their trust in a central authority, free from censorship/sanctions etc.

The gold market is another $trillions untapped potential, BTC is more divisible and portable than gold as a store of value to name a few of its strength.

[gentlemand]

I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

I don't think it's going to make many inroads into that until the need to move in and out of fiat is reduced.

Crypto/fiat interactions are pretty much the only stick governments have to wield and they're going to get ever more uptight about it, way more so than conventional banking. If a bank or broker asked for the shit Bitstamp do they'd be publicly shamed.

No one will want to put their child slavery profits into BTC if they find it's effectively trapped in there with no way of converting it.

[sorrysteve1]

Thanks for sharing this. The second article provides real wealth of bitcoin related information. There are many interesting points (like comparing the volatility of gold with the volatility of bitcoin), but what I found especially interesting is this:

Its censorship-resistant nature provides an attractive alternative to the private offshore banking system currently estimated to hold ~$8 trillion for individuals.

I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

Agree.  It's a massive untapped market.  Even if a small percentage of of these users used Bitcoin as an alternative to private offshore banking system would substantially increase BTC USD value (and also save vast amounts on private bank fees); they'll actually own their private keys rather than putting their trust in a central authority, free from censorship/sanctions etc.

The gold market is another $trillions untapped potential, BTC is more divisible and portable than gold as a store of value to name a few of its strength.

Gold is a proven store of value whereas bitcoin is not. People would be foolish to move millions or billions of dollars in to something that is not yet proven and there's no real demand for. It may happen one day but it is not going to be for a long long time. BTC will need to be around for a few generations before that happens. That is my expectation.

[NeuroticFish]

This report has shown that the speculation of the death of the market and ecosystem has been greatly exaggerated, and so it seems likely that the future expansion plans of industry participants will, at most, be delayed.

They are pretty good at stating the obvious. On the other hand, the not-really-believers in Bitcoin and crypto may need this kind of reassurance that their investments may not be as badly doomed as the spawns of the speculators want to let them believe. Heck, maybe even some of the believers may need that.

[Theb]

The fact that we are having this mini bull runs and price rallies (which we are currently having right now) shows that Bitcoin is not dead yet, if BTC was ever a bubble BTC will be done after within the first quarter of 2018 but in this case it isn't. We are having at present a year long bear market and it is looking to continue in 2019 but the market is just showing the qualities of what a bear market looks like it doesn't show anything really related to a "death" of a market. What we are seeing now is the media only taking advantage of the situation and the fear of the people in order to create juicy headlines they will know will have many readers.

[1Referee]

On the other hand, the not-really-believers in Bitcoin and crypto may need this kind of reassurance that their investments may not be as badly doomed as the spawns of the speculators want to let them believe. Heck, maybe even some of the believers may need that.

If that's the case, then we'll be back to square one as soon as these public figures talk crap about Bitcoin, because if people take the positive talk for granted without thinking, they'll do so too when it's not so positive. It's not a good basis and will translate into getting rekkt eventually.

I'm however glad that more and more people start to look into the fundamentals and what LN actually is. Some of them even went ahead and played with it and ordered physical plug-and-play nodes. Based on that I'm a little bit more optimistic about who we are dealing with here, and that there is actual interest in the fundamentals from people other than the hardcore Bitcoiners.

Time is all we need, and currently we have that time, and plenty of it. It's as always people rushing to see that adoption take place.

[eddie13]

University of Cambridge UK - 2ND GLOBAL CRYPTOASSET BENCHMARKING STUDY

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf

Thanks for that! I just pent an hour or so going through it.
It was a very good analysis from an instution's point of view and it shows that crypto advancement is trucking along as usual. Despite the fall in the price the ecosystem continues.

The only thing I really didn't like about it is that they conflate the potential harm of POW in terms of CO2 which to me is just BS propaganda.
I surely believe that POW can contribute to more real pollution, such as smog and toxins released into the environment from spills and chemical waste dumping, but CO2 is neither of these and is of no concern.

[Bonsaiav]

Statements proclaiming the death of the cryptoasset industry have been made after every global
ecosystem bubble.

You are right, even as far as I know these reports often come from them or people who have never been involved with bitcoin/cryptocurrency, meaning they are only spectators (government or other bitcoin haters).

This report has shown that the speculation of the death of the market
and ecosystem has been greatly exaggerated,

However it's unfortunate, it turns out that their negative reports and statements published in a number of media are often trusted by bitcoin users, without thinking about the truth.

[exstasie]

Statements proclaiming the death of the cryptoasset industry have been made after every global ecosystem bubble. While it is true that the 2017 bubble was the largest in Bitcoin’s history, the market capitalisation of both Bitcoin and the cryptoasset ecosystem still exceeds its January 2017 levels –-prior to the start of the bubble. This report has shown that the speculation of the death of the market and ecosystem has been greatly exaggerated, and so it seems likely that the future expansion plans of industry participants will, at most, be delayed.

It's really interesting to watch this cycle play out again after experiencing the 2013 bubble. It's like déjà vu. The incredibly bearish sentiment and despair, the proclamations about double-digit and single-digit prices, my own gut-wrenching fears.....it's all the same. But as much as it feels like we're going to $0, the chart still looks so bullish when you zoom out to the 1-month candles and take an overview of the historical chart.

Its censorship-resistant nature provides an attractive alternative to the private offshore banking system currently estimated to hold ~$8 trillion for individuals.

It's nice to see some recognition for this vital use case in academia. Slowly but surely, Bitcoin's importance is becoming undeniable.

[NeuroticFish]

On the other hand, the not-really-believers in Bitcoin and crypto may need this kind of reassurance that their investments may not be as badly doomed as the spawns of the speculators want to let them believe. Heck, maybe even some of the believers may need that.

If that's the case, then we'll be back to square one as soon as these public figures talk crap about Bitcoin, because if people take the positive talk for granted without thinking, they'll do so too when it's not so positive. It's not a good basis and will translate into getting rekkt eventually.

I'm however glad that more and more people start to look into the fundamentals and what LN actually is. Some of them even went ahead and played with it and ordered physical plug-and-play nodes. Based on that I'm a little bit more optimistic about who we are dealing with here, and that there is actual interest in the fundamentals from people other than the hardcore Bitcoiners.

Time is all we need, and currently we have that time, and plenty of it. It's as always people rushing to see that adoption take place.

It's not so much about "without thinking". It's about "what if they're right". I mean that for every real good news there are 1000 Bitcoin obituaries. It's.. tiring...
More good news, with data, are always welcome.

But you are right. In the same way many tend to sell at the bottom, they get caught by FOMO and buy at the top. Manipulation works in both ways. And only when more and more people get a better view of the technology behind Bitcoin and they start to understand how big are the advances in the last year, only then the quantity of manipulation attempts by news and posts will start to decrease significantly (because it will not fool anybody and it will not worth investing in that).

[davis196]

Nothing new here.The cryptocurrency industry won't die,but the major crypto projects will be delayed.
I don't need to read a Cambridge study in order to know this.I already know it.
OP,what's that bit.ly link and why do you have to shorten it?Do you wanna count the number of clicks on it?
I don't trust bit.ly links...

[Pursuer]

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf

the link says "can not be found"!

While it is true that the 2017 bubble was the largest in Bitcoin’s history,

was it really the biggest bubble?
note that being a big bubble is not about being in the highest price but having actual big BUBBLE. I personally consider $10k to $20k a bubble which means it really wasn't that big. in fact it can be considered one of the smallest bubbles. even if you consider current price as the bottom and take the 80% drop as the bubble burst (which it really isn't true) that still doesn't make it the "biggest" because we have had bigger bubbles in the past.

the market capitalisation of both Bitcoin and the cryptoasset ecosystem still exceeds its January 2017 levels –-

I am sure this will happen for bitcoin but it will not happen for at least 80% of the altcoins and the rest of 20% will have an extremely hard time to reach their previous ATH because most of them have already lost their place in the market and are being replaced by newer altcoins.

[Last of the V8s]

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf

[Lucius]

We have some discussion few days ago on this subject, but it seems Press board is not so popular among forum users. It is interesting that data for this survey come from 180 cryptoasset companies and individuals from 47 countries around the world. Although some may not agree that this data actually show something what we do not know, but it's interesting to read that there is a large dose of optimism despite the fact that we are in bear market.

Check this thread for original source link : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5084680.0

[satb]

Nothing new here.The cryptocurrency industry won't die,but the major crypto projects will be delayed.
I don't need to read a Cambridge study in order to know this.I already know it.
OP,what's that bit.ly link and why do you have to shorten it?Do you wanna count the number of clicks on it?
I don't trust bit.ly links...

Hi, it was a long link so I shortened it.  You can click the full link below:

https://www.delphidigital.io/bitcoin?_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8IraJTjnpr65COninE_hjrBUKWh0qWDcY1Os_jFzbz3BxVK-V7XoayOPg6WyZPqexlWpniNzbdqtv5DgK33agJpLdOfg&_hsmi=68372760&utm_campaign=Market%20Report&utm_content=68372760&utm_medium=email&utm_source=hs_email

[satb]

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf

the link says "can not be found"!

--snip--

Try this cached one:

https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:Ju4h1fzJrKEJ:https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/alternative-finance/downloads/2018-ccaf-2nd-global-cryptoasset-benchmarking.pdf+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk

[b3j0]

it seems that the article is very interesting to read. the bubble in 2017 is the biggest to date, but I'm still very confident in the next few years there will be a much bigger bubble. maybe around the next 2-3 years.

[el kaka22]

Mark Twain once said "the reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated". This reading really reminded me of that. I think rumours that the market is dead is really just exaggerated, we are still here and crypto is still standing strong.

There is no way bitcoin could "die", it is a p2p financial currency that will never die. Of course there are times it drops like hell and it looks like the price will not recover and all that but remind yourself that during 2014 bull run we reached 1400 and than dropped to 250, it took years to recover but we are over double that amount currently. That is why never give up on your crypto dreams, invest to forget. That way when the price goes back up again you will have a lot of crypto that worth a lot of fiat in exchange.

[sorrysteve1]

While it is true that the 2017 bubble was the largest in Bitcoin’s history,

was it really the biggest bubble?
note that being a big bubble is not about being in the highest price but having actual big BUBBLE. I personally consider $10k to $20k a bubble which means it really wasn't that big. in fact it can be considered one of the smallest bubbles. even if you consider current price as the bottom and take the 80% drop as the bubble burst (which it really isn't true) that still doesn't make it the "biggest" because we have had bigger bubbles in the past.

the market capitalisation of both Bitcoin and the cryptoasset ecosystem still exceeds its January 2017 levels –-

I am sure this will happen for bitcoin but it will not happen for at least 80% of the altcoins and the rest of 20% will have an extremely hard time to reach their previous ATH because most of them have already lost their place in the market and are being replaced by newer altcoins.

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble. I think one of the most important things is not something that even can be quantified, but the effect the bubble had on the market. With hindsight you may be able to measure this based on how long there is from bubble burst to a new ATH but I'm not even sure that is fully accurate. To my mind 2014 was a bigger bubble due to the shear influence it had on the market.

You're doing the current market an injustice saying it only exceeds January 2017 levels. The marketcap at the turn of 2017 was under 20bn, bitcoin being the only coin with a marketcap over 1bn. The overall market has still grown massively since then.

[exstasie]

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble.

What matters is price. It seems like price growth in percentage terms ought to be the defining factor for bubble magnitude. That actually gives us meaningful information to distinguish between bubble cycles.

Total market cap completely distorts things because it's a function of total supply (for all coins). The majority of supply is never traded on the market and therefore shouldn't be factored into "growth." We're talking about lost coins, inactive coins, and especially large pre-mines and token issuer holdings. Using these as huge multipliers for price really exaggerates the total value of the market to the point where the numbers are useless.

Which bubble was largest depends where you measure the bottom from. 2011 appears significantly larger than 2013, which appears significantly larger than 2017. Each bubble seems to be getting smaller in terms of relative growth.

[sorrysteve1]

In terms of marketcap decrease it's by far the largest but I agree that shouldn't be the only measure of what constitute's the biggest bubble.

What matters is price. It seems like price growth in percentage terms ought to be the defining factor for bubble magnitude. That actually gives us meaningful information to distinguish between bubble cycles.

Total market cap completely distorts things because it's a function of total supply (for all coins). The majority of supply is never traded on the market and therefore shouldn't be factored into "growth." We're talking about lost coins, inactive coins, and especially large pre-mines and token issuer holdings. Using these as huge multipliers for price really exaggerates the total value of the market to the point where the numbers are useless.

Which bubble was largest depends where you measure the bottom from. 2011 appears significantly larger than 2013, which appears significantly larger than 2017. Each bubble seems to be getting smaller in terms of relative growth.

Price distorts things in a different way to marketcap however because it discounts the fact that a movement of price at a higher level is more significant in terms of the conditions that go in to making it possible. From an investment point of view it's easy to look at price alone but to say that the price moving from $1-$10 is the same as $1000-$10,000 is not true. I don't feel there is any clear answer to how to define the size of a bubble because every measure will have its advantages and disadvantages.

[magneto]

I think this is overall, a very fair judgement on the recent developments in the bitcoin markets.

There was obviously a huge bubble in the year 2017, which is why this bear market has emerged as prices corrected over the last year. But as the article suggested, there is absolutely no cause for concern simply because a bear market is present. All that it means is that short term sentiment will be negative, and that rallies will be rare.

But in terms of long term adoption, and BTC's use in various fields, I honestly do not think that bitcoin will be affected that much at all. Institutions are going to still come in regardless of whether the market is bullish or bearish (perhaps bearish markets present them with even better buying opportunities), and adoption is still going to continue increasing.

I wonder to what degree people are aware that bitcoin is such an alternative? I guess they are not really aware. It is a huge space that one day bitcoin could potentially disrupt.

I don't think it's going to make many inroads into that until the need to move in and out of fiat is reduced.

Crypto/fiat interactions are pretty much the only stick governments have to wield and they're going to get ever more uptight about it, way more so than conventional banking. If a bank or broker asked for the shit Bitstamp do they'd be publicly shamed.

No one will want to put their child slavery profits into BTC if they find it's effectively trapped in there with no way of converting it.

Interesting take. I do feel like that in the future, as regulations tighten with crypto to fiat (or vice versa) transactions, people are going to shift to dealing exclusively in crypto. Services/goods will be priced and denominated in crypto, as opposed to pricing in fiat and being paid with crypto.

[Kevin77]

I have a theory for bitcoins future that probably every single person on earth would agree on. Its a vague expectation and in reality is not something that could hugely affect anyone ever. I think bitcoin will definitely go up eventually, if you ask around there is not a single person in the world that believes bitcoin will stay at this price, no one says "will bitcoin go up" they say "when will bitcoin go up", maybe it will be 2020, maybe it will be this January, maybe its right now, who knows but it will certainly go up.

When it goes up there will be a natural barrier for it, lets say it will be 100k dollars (made up number) it will go there quicker and reach to that level eventually however after that it will stuck to the inflation, the price will still swing one way or another but won't be changing too much, it will only go up slowly because inflation affects it and dollar worths less in value over years so bitcoin will worth more but not as quickly as we have seen.

So, basically price will eventually go up and up again, reach a point where it will be stuck, slowly increase and decreas minimally forever.