Today is 365 days since the last ATH

[eminemcookie]

Historically that period hasn't been too long. Even in 2014/15 it was only a few months of sideways before the market started to increase. People also forget that the market shouldn't only be considered to be bullish again once we reach an ATH. As soon as the price starts increasing from 3k upwards that is the beginning of something positive.

In 2015, it was more than a few months of sideways. We hit the bottom in the second week of January. We didn't break the sideways range until the fourth week of October when the market finally made a higher high.

There's no reason to consider $3K the bottom yet. This could be a dead cat bounce. We'll only be able to tell in hindsight after the confirmation of an uptrend. That comes later (hopefully).

I apologize, you are correct. I was not here for that time and somehow each time I've looked at the graph I've seen it bottoming out not long before recovering. Not sure how that's possible because I've looked at it numerous times, either way, again I apologize for the misinformation.

Knowing that it could be a long time before we break the 3-4k range if that is the true bottom. Although I suspect that a lot of people will argue that the bottom was around 6k and this has been a reverse bubble.

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[timerland]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

[eminemcookie]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

Even a period of stability and sideways movement would be a win given the recent trend. I am a little suspect of how the price so quickly moved away from the sideways range of $6000 amidst all of the BCH nonsense and now the market is recovering BCHABC is going along with it. I haven't verified this but maybe some hash power has been moved from ABC to BTC because ABC are winning the hashing war?

[Febo]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

Even a period of stability and sideways movement would be a win given the recent trend. I am a little suspect of how the price so quickly moved away from the sideways range of $6000.

It moved away quickly because bottom was not reach yet. Once we will find bottom period of stability will start that will last from 6-12 months.

[Wilhelm]

It feels like a month or two ago... 365 days ... I'm getting old fast 

[Danslip]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

Even a period of stability and sideways movement would be a win given the recent trend. I am a little suspect of how the price so quickly moved away from the sideways range of $6000 amidst all of the BCH nonsense and now the market is recovering BCHABC is going along with it. I haven't verified this but maybe some hash power has been moved from ABC to BTC because ABC are winning the hashing war?

Stable growth and steady performance is reasonable for mentioned conclusions. Trend is not going upward forever, market partcipants are more likely following big money flow. So hash power is just a detail in this ocean and there are so many alternatives in this sector to BCH nonsense.

[Slow death]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

for now we have to forget these words: "ATH" and "bull run" because it seems to me that they are words that we will not see happen in the next months or even the next 2 years, we still need a lot of demand and for this we need big investors and we need that governments regulate bitcoin and that they are advantageous regulations for bitcoin because that brings more demand. I, for example, have a lot of headaches to buy bitcoin and pay a lot of fees, but if my country had regulated bitcoin and the banks made it easier to buy bitcoins, I would buy bitcoin very easily

[harizen]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

Rather than to think how long bear market will lasts or when that expected bull run will happened, Im just focusing on my usual chores in accumulating btc's while at the same taking advantage of any price trend on the way.

No one knows what will happened so questions like that is really not making sense to me. It will just result in lots of confusions on what we really gonna do.

With the bear market that lasted for quiet long period now, people should now, at least, know how to deal on it.

[South Park]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

Even if we give the same name to any instance in which the market goes down, bear markets are different in intensity and duration, to me this will be one of the most difficult bear markets to endure since it has been huge in terms of the losses we had to endure and it is also going to last a very long time since I believe just as you do that the bull market will not appear until 2020.

[gabmen]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

Even if we give the same name to any instance in which the market goes down, bear markets are different in intensity and duration, to me this will be one of the most difficult bear markets to endure since it has been huge in terms of the losses we had to endure and it is also going to last a very long time since I believe just as you do that the bull market will not appear until 2020.

Well it's been a very long year though it's ironic that a decent positive movement started a year after btc's meteoric rise. I agree that this by far won't take us that  much upwards but i won't complain for any positive movement.

[eminemcookie]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

I think that it's quite realistic that prices will continue to dip, or move sideways for the next few weeks/months.

Even though prices are extremely low right now, and I don't expect it to go much lower within this bear market due to the demand for cheap coins from institutions and individual investors below the $3k level, I think that there is still some way to go before we can safely say that a trend reversal is going to happen any time soon.

I also don't think that this current bullish rally will really last at all.

There is usually a period of relative stability before the recovery happens, in a bear market. I don't think we're at that stage yet. And if you look back to 2014, which is similar (obviously not going to be exactly the same) to what is happening right now, the bear market did go on for nearly two years. I expect a similar timeframe for recovery. 2020's halving could coincide with a potential cycle reversal for sure in that regard.

Even a period of stability and sideways movement would be a win given the recent trend. I am a little suspect of how the price so quickly moved away from the sideways range of $6000.

It moved away quickly because bottom was not reach yet. Once we will find bottom period of stability will start that will last from 6-12 months.

Well evidently, but you would suspect that after 3+ months stuck in a narrow range that the price would move slowly in one direction, not halve in a short period of time.

Stable growth and steady performance is reasonable for mentioned conclusions. Trend is not going upward forever, market partcipants are more likely following big money flow. So hash power is just a detail in this ocean and there are so many alternatives in this sector to BCH nonsense.

But it's the knock-on of BCH, I don't believe it was solely responsible for the crash or this small recovery but I think they had a big part to play because they're so dominant in bitcoin mining.

[BitHodler]

But it's the knock-on of BCH, I don't believe it was solely responsible for the crash or this small recovery but I think they had a big part to play because they're so dominant in bitcoin mining.

It could have been a combination of factors. If you think about it, a heavily marketed hash war everywhere on social media, difficulty adjustment around the corner, then you'll be able to understand that there is room for fear to creep in.

The ABC chain at one point had like ~9EX and SV like ~4 while both combined before the split didn't even top 3EX. That's the disadvantage if you have multiple large parties competing for the same hashrate.

Overall, checkpoints made sure that neither of the sides had to continue stealing hashrate from people mining BTC. I wonder what will happen with the lawsuits against Roger and Bitmain. Wouldn't surprise me if faketoshi is stimulating it.

[eminemcookie]

But it's the knock-on of BCH, I don't believe it was solely responsible for the crash or this small recovery but I think they had a big part to play because they're so dominant in bitcoin mining.

It could have been a combination of factors. If you think about it, a heavily marketed hash war everywhere on social media, difficulty adjustment around the corner, then you'll be able to understand that there is room for fear to creep in.

The ABC chain at one point had like ~9EX and SV like ~4 while both combined before the split didn't even top 3EX. That's the disadvantage if you have multiple large parties competing for the same hashrate.

Overall, checkpoints made sure that neither of the sides had to continue stealing hashrate from people mining BTC. I wonder what will happen with the lawsuits against Roger and Bitmain. Wouldn't surprise me if faketoshi is stimulating it.

Wouldn't surprise me at all if CSW is behind it, they both seem fairly determined to war it nearly all costs and something has to give. With the amount of hash rate that has been diverted towards it it's easy to see why that might have had some sort of influence on bitcoin's price.

[figmentofmyass]

Well evidently, but you would suspect that after 3+ months stuck in a narrow range that the price would move slowly in one direction, not halve in a short period of time.

in my experience, it's just the opposite. when price is trading in a tight and well-defined range, it's extremely obvious to the market when a new trend has begun. this results in a strong "thrust" as everyone piles in or out of the market at the same time.

the more time spent ranging, the more explosive the move can be too. this is probably because the more time that goes by, the more positions accumulate and the more stop orders get placed outside the range.

[eminemcookie]

Well evidently, but you would suspect that after 3+ months stuck in a narrow range that the price would move slowly in one direction, not halve in a short period of time.

in my experience, it's just the opposite. when price is trading in a tight and well-defined range, it's extremely obvious to the market when a new trend has begun. this results in a strong "thrust" as everyone piles in or out of the market at the same time.

the more time spent ranging, the more explosive the move can be too. this is probably because the more time that goes by, the more positions accumulate and the more stop orders get placed outside the range.

I guess the fear of loss or the fear of missing out has a lot to do with it. Because it takes a large push to break that range it could often times end up pushing the price direction one way or another. Thank you for the insight, I never really looked at that side of it before.

[myohmy81]

Is a year of time enough for the bear market? Or, will the price drops by the next couple of months?
Personally, I think that this is not the end of the bear market, and we will have to wait until 2020 for the bull run.

It seems that everything has change after those bull run that has been followed with a long year of bearish which until now we can't predict when this bearish will end. Will we go up as we seen some progress or this will look for another bottom? It's unpredictable market and the only consistent here is to keep our patience to wait for the market recovery. Bull run will happens if the market is ready to buckle-up to the new all time high...which will happen at the right time.

[hatshepsut93]

People always seem to forget the bit between the end of the bear market and the start of any bullishness. That may well be the longest most dispiriting period. And that's when most people give up or businesses go bust as interest dwindles massively.

The downward slope is always filled with delusion and hope. We've had a million bottoms called which means people were still paying close attention. Once they drift away it'll mean the cycle is complete and then it's no man's land until it picks up again

This is why I believe 2019 will not bring us a new bull run, we'll probably just spend most of it at some relatively narrow price level with only occasional pump/dump. 2020 is a good candidate for the start of new bullish cycle because of the halvening, but it will also be long, the next ATH might not be reached till 2021.

Bitcoin is full of first-time investors who don't understand that investining is all about patiently waiting for your seeds to sprout, it's not some "get rich quick" thin when you buy something and then get a lambo after a few months. There's nothing bad or wrong with having long bear markets.

[peter0425]

[.. snip..]

This is why I believe 2019 will not bring us a new bull run, we'll probably just spend most of it at some relatively narrow price level with only occasional pump/dump. 2020 is a good candidate for the start of new bullish cycle because of the halvening, but it will also be long, the next ATH might not be reached till 2021.

Bitcoin is full of first-time investors who don't understand that investining is all about patiently waiting for your seeds to sprout, it's not some "get rich quick" thin when you buy something and then get a lambo after a few months. There's nothing bad or wrong with having long bear markets.

As far as I can remember, it took at least four months after the last block halving to break from the sideways pattern that year. I'm not saying that we will see the same after the 2020 halving, but it could be months again before we can finally see a bull run.

I also agree that 2019 will just be a accumulation period and the price could only go as high as $6k with occasional pump. What could really change the market is the halving itself so we need to really wait if everyone is really serious in making a huge money.

[Febo]

[.. snip..]

This is why I believe 2019 will not bring us a new bull run, we'll probably just spend most of it at some relatively narrow price level with only occasional pump/dump. 2020 is a good candidate for the start of new bullish cycle because of the halvening, but it will also be long, the next ATH might not be reached till 2021.

Bitcoin is full of first-time investors who don't understand that investining is all about patiently waiting for your seeds to sprout, it's not some "get rich quick" thin when you buy something and then get a lambo after a few months. There's nothing bad or wrong with having long bear markets.

As far as I can remember, it took at least four months after the last block halving to break from the sideways pattern that year. I'm not saying that we will see the same after the 2020 halving, but it could be months again before we can finally see a bull run.

I also agree that 2019 will just be a accumulation period and the price could only go as high as $6k with occasional pump. What could really change the market is the halving itself so we need to really wait if everyone is really serious in making a huge money.

Bitcoin price started growing in October 2015. That is more then half year before halving. This time it will start earlier. 

[exstasie]

People always seem to forget the bit between the end of the bear market and the start of any bullishness. That may well be the longest most dispiriting period. And that's when most people give up or businesses go bust as interest dwindles massively.

The downward slope is always filled with delusion and hope. We've had a million bottoms called which means people were still paying close attention. Once they drift away it'll mean the cycle is complete and then it's no man's land until it picks up again

This is why I believe 2019 will not bring us a new bull run, we'll probably just spend most of it at some relatively narrow price level with only occasional pump/dump. 2020 is a good candidate for the start of new bullish cycle because of the halvening, but it will also be long, the next ATH might not be reached till 2021.

Bitcoin is full of first-time investors who don't understand that investining is all about patiently waiting for your seeds to sprout, it's not some "get rich quick" thin when you buy something and then get a lambo after a few months. There's nothing bad or wrong with having long bear markets.

I think 2021 is a good bet for the next bubble. 2019 = the quiet year where everyone still thinks Bitcoin is dead. 2020 = 2016 redux, a sideways/upwards grind that confounds bears like frogs in boiling water.

You can get rich quick if you know how to recognize the buildup to a parabolic trend and you understand altcoin cycles. Most of the bull market gains occur near the end, when the market turns parabolic and eventually ends in a blow-off top. This is how all of Bitcoin's past bull markets have gone. The last bull began in late 2015, but the biggest gains were compressed into the May-December 2018 period.

First-time investors don't understand this stuff though. They mostly just buy tops based on greed and sell bottoms out of fear.