Bull Run or Dead Cat Bouncing ?

[raven7886]

I am not smart enough to know the difference between a bull run or a dead cat bouncing in these type of markets. I know what they are but I can't really tell them apart while I am in them, some time needs to pass before I can actually see what happened and call it what it is. However right now there is a trouble with how horrible people look at bitcoin and are really just resentful towards it because of the price which means whenever people feel like they can sell bitcoin, they will.

This means the price will take sometime before it can actually have a good bull run uninterrupted. This one "seems" like a dead cat bouncing to me not because of any technical details but because if you check bitcointalk and reddit people call its a fake out and this market is run by people so whatever they say eventually becomes reality.

[thecodebear]

There is zero chance the bull run is start already. Last cycle it took like 9 or 10 months after the price stopped dropping for the bull run to start. Right now we're only a few days out from the current bottom. This is just volatility along the bottom, bouncing off an oversold position. Expect 3000s and 4000s for at least several months to come.

[Wilhelm]

I find this a too steep climb.
Looks like the people dumping are buying back with profit.
Looks like it will soon correct again and then stabilize.

[figmentofmyass]

My short-term prediction for the next Bull run, would be Q1 of 2019. I base this prediction on the expectation that the SEC might approve the first Bitcoin ETF and that it would inevitably push up the demand for bitcoins. We are currently seeing a lot of financial institutions preparing for something big and I think they too anticipate a possible approval of the first Bitcoin ETF.

that seems too early to me. after such a long and brutal bear market, it would be very surprising to see a bull market emerge so quickly. the change from bear to bull is usually slow.

i'm not sure most of the institutions expect ETF approval. goldman and morgan stanley are clearing futures and will launch their own. bakkt and nasdaq are pursuing futures too. citi is looking into a different type of security called a DAR.

i'm personally bearish on the idea of ETF approval. after seeing what clayton and others have said, it just seems futile to expect much.

[RodeoX]

A "dead cat ounce" can only be determined after a STOCK has collapsed to zero.  Cats don't bounce back to life. It is a dip or correction or fall, but not a dead cat bounce.

[exstasie]

A "dead cat ounce" can only be determined after a STOCK has collapsed to zero.  Cats don't bounce back to life. It is a dip or correction or fall, but not a dead cat bounce.

That's not the conventional definition. A "dead cat bounce" just means a temporary recovery before a downtrend continues. I'm not sure what you call a stock that's collapsed to zero. The closest thing I can think of is a speculative bubble asset, like with tulip mania. "Dead cat bounce" doesn't imply that though.

[WinslowIII]

I am not smart enough to know the difference between a bull run or a dead cat bouncing in these type of markets. I know what they are but I can't really tell them apart while I am in them, some time needs to pass before I can actually see what happened and call it what it is. However right now there is a trouble with how horrible people look at bitcoin and are really just resentful towards it because of the price which means whenever people feel like they can sell bitcoin, they will.

This means the price will take sometime before it can actually have a good bull run uninterrupted. This one "seems" like a dead cat bouncing to me not because of any technical details but because if you check bitcointalk and reddit people call its a fake out and this market is run by people so whatever they say eventually becomes reality.

In this case it isn't hard to tell. The next halving is way too far away for this to be a bull run starting, and there isn't any other reason for a bull run to start. So that leaves the other option you mentioned, a dead cat bounce.

[Baofeng]

I am not smart enough to know the difference between a bull run or a dead cat bouncing in these type of markets. I know what they are but I can't really tell them apart while I am in them, some time needs to pass before I can actually see what happened and call it what it is. However right now there is a trouble with how horrible people look at bitcoin and are really just resentful towards it because of the price which means whenever people feel like they can sell bitcoin, they will.

This means the price will take sometime before it can actually have a good bull run uninterrupted. This one "seems" like a dead cat bouncing to me not because of any technical details but because if you check bitcointalk and reddit people call its a fake out and this market is run by people so whatever they say eventually becomes reality.

In this case it isn't hard to tell. The next halving is way too far away for this to be a bull run starting, and there isn't any other reason for a bull run to start. So that leaves the other option you mentioned, a dead cat bounce.

Let's forget the block halving because is way too far (2020). If you look at the sudden spike, the mental barrier is $3800 but bitcoin just steamroll that price and easily broke $4K as well. I think there's a lot of FOMO right now but I would agree that this is too early to say that we are having a bull run mentality. I wouldn't say that this is a dead cat bounce as well. Maybe this is just the start of another side way patterns up to the Q1 of next year.

[exstasie]

In this case it isn't hard to tell. The next halving is way too far away for this to be a bull run starting, and there isn't any other reason for a bull run to start. So that leaves the other option you mentioned, a dead cat bounce.

I think it's technically a dead cat bounce. But there's a lot of ambiguity with that term. Most people assume it means "doom, price is going much lower." If we're near the beginning of an accumulation phase, that's not necessarily true.

We should expect the lows to be retested and undercut following this bounce, probably sometime in early to mid 2019. But often times these moves end up quickly rejected and we get "spring"-like action.

Here's an example. Right now, I believe we are currently in "AR":

[WinslowIII]

I am not smart enough to know the difference between a bull run or a dead cat bouncing in these type of markets. I know what they are but I can't really tell them apart while I am in them, some time needs to pass before I can actually see what happened and call it what it is. However right now there is a trouble with how horrible people look at bitcoin and are really just resentful towards it because of the price which means whenever people feel like they can sell bitcoin, they will.

This means the price will take sometime before it can actually have a good bull run uninterrupted. This one "seems" like a dead cat bouncing to me not because of any technical details but because if you check bitcointalk and reddit people call its a fake out and this market is run by people so whatever they say eventually becomes reality.

In this case it isn't hard to tell. The next halving is way too far away for this to be a bull run starting, and there isn't any other reason for a bull run to start. So that leaves the other option you mentioned, a dead cat bounce.

Let's forget the block halving because is way too far (2020). If you look at the sudden spike, the mental barrier is $3800 but bitcoin just steamroll that price and easily broke $4K as well. I think there's a lot of FOMO right now but I would agree that this is too early to say that we are having a bull run mentality. I wouldn't say that this is a dead cat bounce as well. Maybe this is just the start of another side way patterns up to the Q1 of next year.

Just a couple weeks ago the price was in the $6k range FOR MONTHS. Of course we are due for a bounce. Straight down doesn't work any more than straight up does.

[STT]

bull run=
2016 $300^
2017 $900^
2018 $3200^

I remember the 2016 one because I sold a few months later.   It was a mistake (its not like I have tons of assets) because after a bottom like that it generally rolls upwards and all I had to do was have some patience.   I dont know if I would say this point is that area or not but even if it was the same you cant expect anyone to be happy or that optimistic for maybe 6 months
Even without a new low people will keep on with the same troll comments and negativity most likely because its perceived to have lost vs the highs.    

was the bottom because it was close to the mining costs.

I didnt think mining costs were fixed, thats what I heard.   I mean the industry overall, I guess some businesses have set their price point needed too high.   But I would also guess there is some out there with some renewable power source who can survive a lower price.
The difficulty should adjust downwards if miners are being squeezed out, its a scenario thats been anticipated or so far as I know.    Efficiency always counts, theres no doubt on that and its going to be a factor in every industry

[Clark05]

Bull run started I think and it is still good to us because in the year 2019 only we need is a little push to other investor to go back again and to those who are willing to invest to the bitcoin. Next year we expect the more and better price than today.

[WinslowIII]

People thinking this is the start of a bull run to $100k are funny. Just a couple weeks ago we had stable $6ks for months, and you are wondering what a literal overnight free fall to $3ks followed by a move to $4k is. C'mon, we will see $2ks or less before the next bull starts (if it starts).

[figmentofmyass]

personally i use the mining cost/market dynamic numbers to help find the bottomline support which has been a good guide for years of knowing the bottom.

i assume it doesn't work too well since miners follow price. cheaper coins = lower profitability = unprofitable miners shut down. more profitable miners don't necessarily take their place either---that's why we just had 3 consecutive downward difficulty retargets totalling 32% of the hashrate.

a couple months ago, you were saying $6000 was the bottom because of mining costs!

[WinslowIII]

The shitcoins btc cash and sv are way up compared to the bitcoin bounce - so what do we take from that?

[Yamifoud]

Bull run started I think and it is still good to us because in the year 2019 only we need is a little push to other investor to go back again and to those who are willing to invest to the bitcoin. Next year we expect the more and better price than today.

We hope so but we can't neglect also that dumps happen along the way. The uptrend prices we saw is somewhat an encouraging to the investors and bring back their trust. Adding more capital will give huge help in the market and to help its recovery. We just give a weeks or a month to see if this trend will continue.

[fabiorem]

Dead cat bouncing, no doubt.

[bitbunnny]

Dead cat bouncing, no doubt.

I would say neither.
This small increase still isn't the sign of bull run, this is too early to say. But that doesn't mean Bitcoin is dead or that will die.
Anyway, current small growth is encouraging trend but it remains to see if this will last and how far this will take us because there is still possibility for price to bounce back again. To my opinion nothing big will happen before the next year so we have to stay patient.

[Febo]

Bull Run or Dead Cat Bouncing ?

What is happening now is a correction. Bitcoin price was decreasing sharply for whole month. So it was expected sooner or latter to correct. If we reached bottom few days ago that is another story.

[arpon11]

Opinions on Recent Market Upswing

Bull Run




OR



Dead Cat Bouncing




 

I think it is bull run and not the other way.  When bitcoin when down below $3300 last week Friday many of us were saying that bitcoin will not rise to $4000 before end of this year but we can see that this week a lone bitcoin has move significantly and adding almost $800 in just a week is very significant.  Traders that invested last week Friday are now in good profits because of the current bullish trend.  I believe that if we actually want to makes money in 2019 , we should invest now because though we would be having some corrections along the way I think it will be more of bullish than bearish.