ichimoku cloud says 3100$ is the cheapest bitcoin will ever be

[butka]

as far as how the ichimoku works, i know exactly how it does, as far as am concern the red cloud represents tremendous resistance ahead which is obvious,

Yes, that was my point. I have no argument with the rest of your analysis. I'm also tired of this bear market and I wish bitcoin were shooting up through the cloud as soon as possible. But I'm also trying to be as objective as possible.

being under the cloud does not mean an extended or never ending bear market.

No it doesn't. Let's hope it will reverse soon.

[exstasie]

Makes sense.

Recovery will be slow and painful.

It has to be. I'm a big believer in max pain theory, the idea that markets tend to go where they'll cause the most pain for the most people. It's the nature of short squeezes and long squeezes.

There's no way the bulls can just get bailed out with immediate recovery and bull run. That's way too easy. The newbies who still believe that's possible are going to be forced to sell near the bottom repeatedly as the market whipsaws and squeezes both weak hands and late shorters.

[1Referee]

I'm also tired of this bear market and I wish bitcoin were shooting up through the cloud as soon as possible. But I'm also trying to be as objective as possible.

I'm not cheering because of how shit this market looks now, but because of how people who shouldn't be here are being shaken out. It also stimulates people to focus on the technical side of Bitcoin now the market isn't pumping, which is another benefit of a bear market. People come to sense now, which in my opinion is very important because it results in appreciation for what Bitcoin fundamentally stands for instead of its parabolic increases.

The main difference is that back in the 2014/2015 bear market the fundamentals were negligible because of how there wasn't much to focus on. That's different now. We're seeing actual progress which we could only dream of back then. I'm happy.

[kelz1]

Is it called a cloud chart because you look at it and see anything you want to see! The bear market is not completely over, every time there is a flash of green it comes crashing down again. The red days will be here soon

[mikeywith]

Is it called a cloud chart because you look at it and see anything you want to see! The bear market is not completely over, every time there is a flash of green it comes crashing down again. The red days will be here soon

yes I agree with you, 100% , my chart is pure bullshit drawing based on nothing but wishful thinking, so can you post a picture of the crystal ball that told you the bear market is not completely over?

I have no problem with having a healthy discussion based on TA as this is a TA thread where random thoughts and prediction are OFF-TOPIC.

you can't sell btc at 3k and then troll everyone who says btc is going up  , if you have a chart , post away. if not then put me on ignore list and move on with your life.

thanks

[Adriano2010]

No one can say 100% that 3100$ is the last cheapest price and never again bitcoin will go much lower than that, but as we see now bitcoin is over 4100$ and this can only be a sign before bull run start, anyway i will hold until i will see at least 30,000$ for 1BTC

[rodalutor]

Well so far so good on that prediction. $4000 was just broken a short while ago. Still it's going to be a long way until bitcoin is clear of any potential new lows in this market. We saw how quickly the price fell from $6000 when it eventually did fall. Let's hope the cloud is right.

Yes it's good to see the market right now from last week, BTC is going great and it needs to be continued for a while . Something is better than nothing I was likely to sell my coins after a long wait but I have changed my mind now to hodl for few more days.

I would strongly suggest not to sell any long term holdings at this point. The price as this suggests is not likely to hit lower than $3100. With a past ATH of $20000 there's much more to lose at this point by selling than there is to gain.

[mikeywith]

I would strongly suggest not to sell any long term holdings at this point. The price as this suggests is not likely to hit lower than $3100. With a past ATH of $20000 there's much more to lose at this point by selling than there is to gain.

agreed , but you realize that someone has to sell for someone else to buy ? why do you think the rich get richer and whales get bigger while average joe enters the market and end up broke ? because they wait too long to buy and when they do, price starts to crash, and again they make the same mistake by waiting so long and then sell and over sold market at the very wrong time.

one does not really need to be a pro trader to understand that buying at 3k or 4k for the long term is a golden chance given the risk/reward ratio. but to someone who day trade, and ready to change their mind as the market does, it is okay to sell at any point because you will buy again soon. but for a hodler or a very long term trader, you can't sell the market after 85% crash, it is just stupid.

[rodalutor]

I would strongly suggest not to sell any long term holdings at this point. The price as this suggests is not likely to hit lower than $3100. With a past ATH of $20000 there's much more to lose at this point by selling than there is to gain.

agreed , but you realize that someone has to sell for someone else to buy ? why do you think the rich get richer and whales get bigger while average joe enters the market and end up broke ? because they wait too long to buy and when they do, price starts to crash, and again they make the same mistake by waiting so long and then sell and over sold market at the very wrong time.

one does not really need to be a pro trader to understand that buying at 3k or 4k for the long term is a golden chance given the risk/reward ratio. but to someone who day trade, and ready to change their mind as the market does, it is okay to sell at any point because you will buy again soon. but for a hodler or a very long term trader, you can't sell the market after 85% crash, it is just stupid.

Right, I'm aware of that. Just trying to spare this one poor soul from making the mistake that many others will make or have already made. I've learned a lot myself through the last bull run and now in this bearish market but the real fundamentals should be fairly easy for most people to grasp. I think the biggest mistake is most people invest too much without really knowing what they're investing in. That mistake leads to many more mistakes.

[mikeywith]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5088650.0

this is an update, a combined analysis on bitcoin bottom.

[pabpete]

I would like to believe that the technical analysis always works. I know that it is very useful in short periods of time - a few hours, a maximum of a few days. Unfortunately, long cycles on the cryptocurrency market are different from the behavior in large markets, where technical analysis works. I hope that when the crypto market cap grows a dozen or so times it will be a useful instrument for longer periods of time.

[exstasie]

I would like to believe that the technical analysis always works. I know that it is very useful in short periods of time - a few hours, a maximum of a few days. Unfortunately, long cycles on the cryptocurrency market are different from the behavior in large markets, where technical analysis works. I hope that when the crypto market cap grows a dozen or so times it will be a useful instrument for longer periods of time.

I don't think this is a problem for Bitcoin and the larger coins. There is sufficient market liquidity such that all classical TA applies to Bitcoin just as it does to stock indices or commodities.

The long term is actually much easier to analyze than shorter term (day trading) time frames. Over short periods, the noise-to-signal ratio is very high. I find that signals based on 1-day or 1-week candlesticks are very reliable in Bitcoin.

Also, TA will never always work. It's not a crystal ball. It helps you know when reversals are occurring, when to cut losses, when trends are being established, etc. but it's inherently about hedging risks and probabilities. There is no 100% successful method.

[Pursuer]

I would like to believe that the technical analysis always works. I know that it is very useful in short periods of time - a few hours, a maximum of a few days. Unfortunately, long cycles on the cryptocurrency market are different from the behavior in large markets, where technical analysis works. I hope that when the crypto market cap grows a dozen or so times it will be a useful instrument for longer periods of time.

I don't think this is a problem for Bitcoin and the larger coins. There is sufficient market liquidity such that all classical TA applies to Bitcoin just as it does to stock indices or commodities.

The long term is actually much easier to analyze than shorter term (day trading) time frames. Over short periods, the noise-to-signal ratio is very high. I find that signals based on 1-day or 1-week candlesticks are very reliable in Bitcoin.

Also, TA will never always work. It's not a crystal ball. It helps you know when reversals are occurring, when to cut losses, when trends are being established, etc. but it's inherently about hedging risks and probabilities. There is no 100% successful method.

I agree with what you are saying but with the addition that if for example TA works 80% of the times in other markets like stocks market then it means TA only works 50% in bitcoin market because of the size of the market and the severity of the manipulation that exists here.
here I chose 80 and 50 numbers arbitrarily but the point is that effectiveness of TA is reduced in bitcoin market to a point where most of the times it raises the question of why bother with it.

[Oasisman]

I would like to believe that the technical analysis always works. I know that it is very useful in short periods of time - a few hours, a maximum of a few days. Unfortunately, long cycles on the cryptocurrency market are different from the behavior in large markets, where technical analysis works. I hope that when the crypto market cap grows a dozen or so times it will be a useful instrument for longer periods of time.

Also, TA will never always work. It's not a crystal ball. It helps you know when reversals are occurring, when to cut losses, when trends are being established, etc. but it's inherently about hedging risks and probabilities. There is no 100% successful method.

I second to this. TA's role is just to guide us along the trading journey (just like what you have mentioned above). We know how volatile the market is and we dont have the definite idea on what or how the fellow traders do their trading. This is also the reason why there is market manipulation, to minimize the risk of lossing the whales investment.

[glowing10]

I too believe that this could be the lowest for the next couple of years if not for permanent it may be. But those who were smart people had being saying that keep on buying on the dips as market will eventually rise and will give you returns on your investment. Those who had invested today would have made money and rest would have lost this opportunity.

[pinoyden]

I too believe that this could be the lowest for the next couple of years if not for permanent it may be. But those who were smart people had being saying that keep on buying on the dips as market will eventually rise and will give you returns on your investment. Those who had invested today would have made money and rest would have lost this opportunity.

Theres nothing wrong in believing but you must also be aware that not all news are legit .  we are on a new world where internet and being online can now be easily accesible in which anyone can do whatever they want no matter it is for fun or for destroying others .

And if the rumors were real , then why i still see that btc price is going down ? Hmmm ... 

Oh well   . btc can surely recover in the future no matter how hard it falls  .  so lets not worry too much in regard with price but instead let us hoard and accumulate more   .

[mikeywith]

I agree with what you are saying but with the addition that if for example TA works 80% of the times in other markets like stocks market then it means TA only works 50% in bitcoin market because of the size of the market and the severity of the manipulation that exists here.
here I chose 80 and 50 numbers arbitrarily but the point is that effectiveness of TA is reduced in bitcoin market to a point where most of the times it raises the question of why bother with it.

if TA does not work, then could please kindly tell us what does ? what do you place your entries and exists on?

[Question123]

But in the future it will decrease lower for sure. But right now we need to focus to up the value of the bitcoin no negtive will be entertain for this now only positive for the price of the bitcoin. I hope price will really increase not down.

[1Referee]

if TA does not work, then could please kindly tell us what does ? what do you place your entries and exists on?

He didn't say it doesn't work, he just referred to the fact that there isn't always a point in trying to bet on a certain market movement, which makes sense, especially after how the $5800 level was broken and the market really needed to find a point to calm down at, which it seems to have, for now.

Based on his view on TA he is not all that active with trading, so it's likely based on long term fundamentals rather than short term bets on the direction of the market.

Admittedly, regardless of it being a guess, it's always better to trade based on an educated guess rather than a blind guess like most of the people here do. I think it's safe to say that TA, especially in the last year or so, has turned into a meme sort of thingy due to all the clowns on social media selling signals and memberships.

[STT]

But in the future it will decrease lower for sure.

Which is completely oppisite to the thread title but with no input as to why you think that lol

The reason more simply put then this magic cloud stuff is moving averages and because its easily understood this might make it a similar correlating strong factor behind this area being the very lowest.

I had never considered this but the moving 200 week average is at these prices apparently.   I never consider that but true enough look back and this MA has marked near bottom pricing over the long term average trend which overall has been up.

Doesnt mean it has to be always correct, just to date its been that way and its a very easy thing to just mention an average which allows many participants in observation of that rise over time