Bitcoin Bottomed out ? TA analysis.

[mikeywith]

 before you start reading. if you think TA is useless, gtfo now because this is going to be painful to read.

if you believe in TA and history repeating itself on the chart, jump in this could be very interesting.


I made a few posts regarding Bitcoin price prediction, with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA ( this line goes to those who say TA is bullshit but didn't gtfo   ) > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.100

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Ok b.s aside  let us first start with analyzing the big picture of bitcoin, and why do i think that we have either bottomed out or just about to bottom out.

I will be combining a few a technical views, some of which i have mentioned before.

1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



the chart you looking at is the BLX, it has the longest data you can possibly find, the first candle goes to first of July 2010.

looking at the chart, we can clearly see that the 50 MA was never closed below and price did have a wick going under but not a single monthly close below.

while the current monthly candle have not really touched the MA which is why i think we could possible have make another slightly lower low with a wick that can go to as low as 2000$ but the monthly candle has to close above 2900$ for this 50 moving average to be valid.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart



almost the same look of the monthly 50 MA, except that on this weekly chart we did actually touch the 200MA and bounce right of it, you can also see that the 200 weekly moving average has never had a single weekly close below it, price did have a wick but not a close, and this suggest that if we were going to go down again to touch the monthly 50 moving on the monthly then price will come up fast enough before a weekly close.

3- The 2800-3100 is a major support/resistance level.



this price level has acted as both support and resistance level for about 105 days during last year. for 105 days it was the only critical line on site level that traders had their buys and sells around, it held the almost 35% drop in Aug 2017 and price surged from there.

 many traders have been setting their long positions at around the area, which justifies the recent pump, as many traders think that we bottomed out and are trying to enter as early as the can.

4- The Stotcastic RSI on the monthly chart



 the Stochastic RSI is at as low as the bottom of 2014 ranging at around 0.24 , while we still need to see a cross to confirm the start of an up trend , and since is is a monthly chart so another 500-1000$ drop from the latest low won't have much of an impact on the monthly layout which indicates an over sold market that is ready to change bullish.


5- The RSI on the monthly chart




The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.


6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart

 

sorry about the dark black ground on this one.

nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end.


7- The lack of support below this level.



The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

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Now giving the fact that these analysis are based on large time frames, so the results will only confirm in months from now, saying we could have bottomed out does not mean you look at the hourly chart and say why are we dropping , the chart on the small time frame still looks as bearish as hell, so if you are a day trader then you should be following the current trend to place your positions, but if you are a long term trader then you should be only using any potential dip to buy so you can level up a good average price of your holdings.

it makes 0 sense to sell now if you are planning to hold for so long, i expect the price to test the 5k region and then make another leg down, this can be a good change to short and then to re enter the sub 3k as most likely every bottom has to be tested twice before making a V shape to the upside.

also keep in mind that the end of bearish trend does not mean the start of a bull run, it usually means a few months of consolidation between the bottom and the last high of the last leg down , which in our case if we were to assume 3k to be the bottom then the siedways market will be between 6k and 3k which can last from a few months to a whole a year before breaking the 6k and going on a bull run that will mark new ATHs.

long story short, buy around 3k , sell around 6k  until once of those levels are broken then you act accordingly. if you don't know how to trade,and you failed to sell at 5.7k then don't sell now, the room to the upside now is more than that to the downside.

This is not a financial advice, trade safe. follow the trend.






 

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[bitserve]

Very good analysis, thanks!

[pixie85]

I don't know why people are waiting for that wick below 50MA so much. Usually in such setup when every noob trader is telling you to wait for the capitulation candle with long wick to invest it can never happen because every trader will try to outsmart the others and put orders higher to be sure to catch that wick right below 3000 dollars. It will build an impenetrable wall of orders that in time will go closer towards 3000.

[mikeywith]

I don't know why people are waiting for that wick below 50MA so much. Usually in such setup when every noob trader is telling you to wait for the capitulation candle with long wick to invest it can never happen because every trader will try to outsmart the others and put orders higher to be sure to catch that wick right below 3000 dollars. It will build an impenetrable wall of orders that in time will go closer towards 3000.

how did you come up to the conclusion that anybody said you should wait for a wick to enter?

[exstasie]

Very rigorous analysis. Thank you!

The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.

One note about the above. Inherently, the value of this indicator analysis (and in fact the same goes for the historical Stoch and Ichimoku comparisons) depends on the long term uptrend continuing. We are essentially assuming "this is a correction to a trend which will continue, and we are reaching historical reversal levels." I think that's a solid analysis, but there is a distinct and perhaps even significant possibility that the overall trend will reverse into a bearish super-cycle. In that case, RSI and Stochs can grind the ground for many months on end during strong downtrending.

The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

I think it's important to emphasize the weekly candle close. There can definitely be a liquidity event that causes a temporary move below the $3,000 support zone. The key is that bulls buy it up quickly and we wick back above support.

Great analysis Mike. It's great to have another analyst on the forum!

[mikeywith]

One note about the above. Inherently, the value of this indicator analysis (and in fact the same goes for the historical Stoch and Ichimoku comparisons) depends on the long term uptrend continuing. We are essentially assuming "this is a correction to a trend which will continue, and we are reaching historical reversal levels." I think that's a solid analysis, but there is a distinct and perhaps even significant possibility that the overall trend will reverse into a bearish super-cycle. In that case, RSI and Stochs can grind the ground for many months on end during strong downtrending.

yes indeed, we could enter into a very long bearish trend, the RSI and the Stoch themselves are not my favorite indicators at all, i use them as an extra indication just because some other traders do, and many traders rely generally on divergences on those indicators, so when you have the stoch at a very low level,even with price continuing to the downside, the speed will differently has to decrease/slow down and that will show on the RSI ,MACD and the Stoch and will create whatever refer to as a bullish-divergence which many traders count on.

and again this is mind game, you want to try and look at the charts from as many points of view as possible, to hopefully join the crowd by making the same decision as they do , and by crowd i mean the money crowd not the people crowd that usually end up losing.

I think it's important to emphasize the weekly candle close. There can definitely be a liquidity event that causes a temporary move below the $3,000 support zone. The key is that bulls buy it up quickly and we wick back above support.

Great analysis Mike. It's great to have another analyst on the forum!

indeed focusing on the weekly close as well as the monthly close are always the most important, people place their long term traders on the hour chart and when things go south they blame the whales for manipulating the market when almost all the signs are there.

thanks for the feedback, would be great to see some of your analysis too.

happy holidays.

[WinslowIII]

My analysis is this: bitcoin is either going to nothing or $100k+ by end of 2021. There's no gray areas with this asset.

[buwaytress]

I take a big interest in TA, but not as gospel truth. There's of course a lot to take from charts and history, and I don't dismiss any of it, except perhaps from those 2010/11 periods where I feel price and volume is irrelevant as placed only in the hands of the few - even if they did set the market up.

As exstacie said, just because this is the ground doesn't mean a reversal will happen. I'm well ready and have been for a while for RSI to flitter around these levels, and MAs to just taper off for a really long time.

My analysis is this: bitcoin is either going to nothing or $100k+ by end of 2021. There's no gray areas with this asset.

That's always been my "analysis", based on maybe nothing but circumstancial evidence... that Bitcoin has no bottom or ceiling and is as likely to go as high as we can't imagine, as it is as low as no one can expect. There is no grey, nor black or white.

[greensheep]

Good long term analysis.
As sometimes it is mentioned, there is not enough volume for this to be capitulation, I think it is possible for this to be the bottom.
Capitulation could indeed still come after a retest of the 5.8-6K region and test below 3 K briefly.
Either way the bottom will need to be retested.

Regarding the volume during capitulations, it could be considered that during previous bottoms, coins were worth less and thus more coins were owned by individuals.
Which then could dump more coins at once which led to more volume.

[wuvdoll]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

The biggest example we can give for this happened just a month ago when Craig Wright sold off about 8 thousand bitcoins all at once, now which type of TA could have predicted something like that, bitcoin price went down 10%+ in half an hour and TA couldn't calculate that. Hence, yeah on a regular day TA is great and would definitely work on calculating correct prices if no outside involvement happens but it is BS when something major like that happens.

[BitHodler]

The biggest example we can give for this happened just a month ago when Craig Wright sold off about 8 thousand bitcoins all at once, now which type of TA could have predicted something like that, bitcoin price went down 10%+ in half an hour and TA couldn't calculate that.

I find it very hard to believe that you know how many coins CSW dumped on the market, and more precisely said, I find it harder to believe that you can point out that he has dumped coins to begin with.

People act like the Bcash gang tanked the market by dumping large numbers of coins on the market, yet no one can point me to any factual information about their addresses.

If you don't know their addresses, you don't know whether they dumped or not. It's way more likely that investors have tanked the price down to where it was a week ago than these Bcash fraudsters.

[exstasie]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

That doesn't discount the value of TA at all. It just means Bitcoin trends more strongly than other markets. Recognizing trends is one of the primary uses of TA. If anything, this makes employing it in Bitcoin more useful than other markets.

Most of the people ridiculing TA just made (or followed) a few bad predictions and use that as the basis for their ridicule. They never actually learned the value of TA or how to properly employ it.

[mikeywith]

TA is definitely BS when it comes to bitcoin. The trouble is not that TA is a valid way to calculate bottoms and even tops and anything in between, it definitely calculates stuff very precisely, the BS part comes from the fact that whenever something major happens in bitcoin the price moves very quickly without caring about what the TA shows.

That doesn't discount the value of TA at all. It just means Bitcoin trends more strongly than other markets. Recognizing trends is one of the primary uses of TA. If anything, this makes employing it in Bitcoin more useful than other markets.

Most of the people ridiculing TA just made (or followed) a few bad predictions and use that as the basis for their ridicule. They never actually learned the value of TA or how to properly employ it.

These Hodl MOON boys will never understand what are you trying to explain them, I am done trying to educate anybody who is not willing to learn. let them sit there in the dark crying and asking when moon? when lambo? 

[1Referee]

People act like the Bcash gang tanked the market by dumping large numbers of coins on the market, yet no one can point me to any factual information about their addresses.

I think it's safe to say that Bitmain and Roger did everything they could to artificially peg their shitcoin to 5-10-15-20% of Bitcoin's value to such degree, that they have burned through most of their Bitcoin holdings in the process. Bitmain's Bitcoin holdings have shown a massive decline when they publicly shared their coin balances.

Not sure when they show their next most recent balance sheet, but it will bring in more clarity in terms of what happened with their Bitcoin holdings. I bet their BCash holdings will be near 1.5 million by now, which is crazy if you think about it. If this continues, they not only own most of the hashrate and nodes, but also the coins in circulation.

Classic centralized piece of shit coin.

[mikeywith]

here is an update of the current situation for those intraday traders > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.msg48868678#msg48868678

[el kaka22]

Bitcoin seems like on a bull trajectory even during it going down. When there was a bear market the price went down but it went down much quicker. Right now when we hit 4200 dollars it dropped to 3800 or so even higher, last time it went down from 4200 it went down all the way to 3400 even less. Which tells me it is really difficult to sell right now and even when a lot of people sell they are not overpowering the buy orders.

Hence, I think bitcoin will be fine in 2019, this is a good example of why 2019 will be a year of bull, maybe we will not hit 20 thousand dollars at all, maybe for another couple years we will not see those type of prices, however we will certainly go between 4-10 thousand dollars for this year, sometimes it will go up and sometimes it will have these small falls but in the end it will certainly be higher than what it is today.

[okala]

Very good analysis and more grace to you airborne. Technically I believe that bitcoin has bottom out and follow the analysis that you have made I think we should not expect bitcoin will not go below $3000. That means now should be the best time for us to invest into the market.

[mikeywith]

Very good analysis and more grace to you airborne. Technically I believe that bitcoin has bottom out and follow the analysis that you have made I think we should not expect bitcoin will not go below $3000. That means now should be the best time for us to invest into the market.

we can still dip more tho, but if it' for long term plan, then indeed it's a good time IMO

[mikeywith]

The monthly candle is going to close in 6 days, very important to watch whether we manage to close below the 50MA on the monthly or not, watch the 200 weekly MA as well, a close below the 200 will most likely confirm a close below 50MA on monthly, and therefore the TA would be invalidated and we will be looking at at another potential bottom.

as far as the current price goes , everything still looks in place, the sings leaning to this being the bottom, it will remain valid unless we see a close as mentioned above.

[figmentofmyass]

The monthly candle is going to close in 6 days, very important to watch whether we manage to close below the 50MA on the monthly or not, watch the 200 weekly MA as well, a close below the 200 will most likely confirm a close below 50MA on monthly, and therefore the TA would be invalidated and we will be looking at at another potential bottom.

as far as the current price goes , everything still looks in place, the sings leaning to this being the bottom, it will remain valid unless we see a close as mentioned above.

thanks for the update.

i'm also leaning towards the same conclusion, but markets sure have a way of making us doubt ourselves, don't they?

shorts are pretty low and the market is really choppy in general, so i'm on the sidelines until i see an obvious uptrend to ride. fingers crossed that we don't see any sustained candle closing below the 200wma/$3k area.

[Wind_FURY]

My theory.

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

I believe the smarter traders, who are ahead of everyone, are starting to accumulate, before everyone has full knowledge of the situation that the best time to buy might be now.

[figmentofmyass]

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

i don't think everyone is waiting for a capitulation. some traders and especially old timers, yeah, but not everyone.

you may be right that too many people are expecting new lows right now. but that may just mean a relief rally or short squeeze is coming. it doesn't necessarily mean the downtrend is over. market sentiment is fluid and will keep adjusting to price action. we could bounce to $5k and everyone might turn bullish. and then we might be headed for capitulation.

[fabiorem]

The same kind of analysis was made when it was in the 6000s. People thought it was the bottom, because it sidelined there for months. And here we are, looking at the 3000s.

So, I dont think we bottomed. However, I also dont think we will be in this bear market forever, like some believe.

If this year is to be a repetition of 2015, price could be in the 3000s for the most part of the year, with some ups and downs. Price recovery will be slow, not only because of the cycle, but also due to the participation of Wall Street and other "legitimate" investors in the scene. They try to tame every asset they touch, and bitcoin is a very wild asset.

[STT]

Its the role of markets to even out volatility, thats the job they are paid to do really.   Capitalism in theory is about personal profit but the ironic benefit to society is it provides a service, in this case a more reliable price should be the result.

The big bears say thats not possible and they believe the supply of Bitcoin is endless, that doesn't exactly make sense though.   Some of their ideas are just based off the concept of copyright but this is a flaw in the wider world anyway.   Russia, China even India has been illegally copying various patented medicines and mass producing them regardless of apparent world trade laws and restrictions.
  Long story short, the finance view of the world is far from 20/20 and they can easily be wrong here.    Stuff like XRP I have zero faith in as the development and production is not open ended, its biased to the company.   So long as BTC is productive basis for trade then 3000 can be the bottom price, development can determine price more then the speculators

2015 roughly as I remember it, alot of fuss around the halvening (more of a false dawn in exact terms).   Some now think thats it again for a possible timing to buy.

[exstasie]

The same kind of analysis was made when it was in the 6000s. People thought it was the bottom, because it sidelined there for months. And here we are, looking at the 3000s.

So, I dont think we bottomed. However, I also dont think we will be in this bear market forever, like some believe.

If this year is to be a repetition of 2015, price could be in the 3000s for the most part of the year, with some ups and downs.

If 2019 = 2015, then the low $3,000s are probably like the low $200s. Not the ultimate low, but the bottom of the long term accumulation range. We should be prepared for a gut wrenching plunge below the range lows in a final capitulation. In fact, it happened twice in 2015: capitulation in January and a retest in August. Hopefully that'll end with a Wyckoff Spring or V-bottom that helps confirm the end of the bear market.

It's hard to be any more specific than that.  I think the old saying "history doesn't repeat but it often rhymes" applies here.

[Wind_FURY]

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

i don't think everyone is waiting for a capitulation. some traders and especially old timers, yeah, but not everyone.

Then would you agree that the right time to start accumulating is now?

you may be right that too many people are expecting new lows right now. but that may just mean a relief rally or short squeeze is coming.

My point is, the act of waiting, while doing nothing at the same time, will cause the holders not to "capitulate".

it doesn't necessarily mean the downtrend is over. market sentiment is fluid and will keep adjusting to price action. we could bounce to $5k and everyone might turn bullish. and then we might be headed for capitulation.

Yes, because the whalecummulators might not be done with their own accumulation. If the plebs pump, they dump. They don't want to be disturbed.

Tinfoil hats on.

[adaseb]

Even though hind-sight is 20-20, we all could see the $6K breaking due to the fact that everybody assumed it was the bottom and everybody assumed that it "must" go up in November 2017 since November is usually a very bullish bitcoin month, sentlement was very bullish back then. Many people took leverage positions and were pretty much liquidated unless they only took a 1x long or added to their balances.

Right now however its the opposite. Looking at the forum and most trollboxes everybody is extremely bearish on ETH and BTC. They are expecting $20 ETH and $1000 BTC. And they are also shorting the bottom and if we start an acceleration anytime in the next couple of weeks it might lead to a huge short squeeze to the $5000-$6000 area.

When we get there its hit and miss what will happen. It will either reverse and head back down, or we might get a huge cup and handle or it will engulf the area and we might be heading to $7000. Only time will tell.

[figmentofmyass]

Then would you agree that the right time to start accumulating is now?

if we're talking about building a long term position, i think it's prudent to wait for signs of accumulation first. i've never seen a chart like this immediately erupt into a parabolic bull market. there should be lots of time left. nobody should be desperate to buy right now.

[davis196]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

[wuvdoll]

if we're talking about building a long term position, i think it's prudent to wait for signs of accumulation first. i've never seen a chart like this immediately erupt into a parabolic bull market. there should be lots of time left. nobody should be desperate to buy right now.

No, this must be a right time for building long term positions. I am sure no indicator will show the beginning of a new trend well in advance and for those who do now want to miss out this steep bottom prices then may start buying some right away. Technical indicators may start showing signals about trend reversal only after bitcoin prices entering and sustaining above $5000 levels. Also, buying now is a non-technical one hence we should not go for "all-in", buying partial and then adding up later kind of plan will work with current markets for any long term investor.

Moreover, it is being frequently emphasized here : for a long term investors, all the times are good to buy. With respect to current market prices, this may be a life time opportunity to buy bitcoins under $4000 and we may never see prices trading under $4k levels forever here after. I am very much sure on this.

[exstasie]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

I've been looking for a leg up to $5,000+ for a while, but I mainly see it as a shorting opportunity. Support from 2018 ($5,700+) should be resistance now, as well as the 200-day and 20-week MAs.

I'm open to the idea that December 2018 was the bottom, but bulls need to carve out a bottom over months. In the meantime, selling the top of this new range should be lucrative for the next several months.

[omonuyak]

Very in depth technical analysis.All the people that were predicting a 1500 USD btc price during the winter have to read this.There will be a massive price recovery during the spring.By massive,I mean the price will recover to around 5000 USD,which is pretty good.I don't expect a "10K USD or more" btc price this year.

That is truth and I strongly believe that bitcoin will recover above $10,000  before end of this year December.  The market however is currently moving in side ways and if you keep watching over the market you will understand that bitcoin is going to recover maybe around July or August.

[STT]

I dont agree that everyone thought 6000 had to be the bottom and that mass assumption is why market tested it.     I'm not sure 10,000 now as a recovery can be justified either, whats probably true for determining pricing is what level serves the greatest number of people and the market overall as a purpose.    So I'm thinking of housing where for a long time people pointed to how it always gained value over years however this is forgetting buyers needs relative to their earnings and what price is best for them.

If like in housing we need those buyers to have a lower price in order that BTC as a product continues to grow overall in population, in development and potential for its utility then its going to keep moving towards the price that gains the most buyers.     Its really upto that driving force to tell us where are you most involved and wanting to use BTC, our worries on numbers is just a dimension measured after market as a whole is most comfortable and ready again for crypto to fit their needs.   I think it is partly time and development tbh


As far as TA then its most easily observable relative to the 200 week average and measure strength maybe FIB levels from there

[mikeywith]

wait for a break-out , go long. set TP and SL .

[bustedsynx]

We just have to wait until March 1 and if Bitcoin breaks the $3,700 resistance levels. However, it's a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin breaks down to $3000 or below briefly. It's like waiting for the last of the weak whale hands to fall.

[Wind_FURY]

My theory.

Everyone is waiting for a capitulation that will not come anymore, including the "weak hands" who would have, or should have caused the capitulation. Everyone is wiser, and more experienced now.

I believe the smarter traders, who are ahead of everyone, are starting to accumulate, before everyone has full knowledge of the situation that the best time to buy might be now.

My theory could be proven right. Everyone waiting for a capitulation followed by a "surging rally" will be waiting in vain. Yes, like the song.

I believe the people trading the market are too smart for that now.

[gabmen]

We just have to wait until March 1 and if Bitcoin breaks the $3,700 resistance levels. However, it's a 50/50 chance that Bitcoin breaks down to $3000 or below briefly. It's like waiting for the last of the weak whale hands to fall.

We've been waiting for that for more than a year now dude. It may have already bottomed out or it may still take a plunge, it'll be very difficult to know even with the most constructive ta. I've grown tired of the btc drama and decided to just let it move where it wants. I'll just be flexible lol.

[mikeywith]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49710747#msg49710747

read it, let me know what you guys think.

[buwaytress]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5105680.msg49710747#msg49710747

read it, let me know what you guys think.

I've already just lost a bet today on Fairlay (for BTC to have touched $4k by 15th Feb 2019), was fully expecting to lose even when I took it in Dec though (the 5/1 was more like a consolation since it meant I couldn't get more coins at cheap price).

I think your theory has been shared by a lot of people, and has stood for a while. I still think we have yet to see the lows of the year, so I'm not 100% sure your bottoming out theory fits with that expectation of further lows, but I actually think it's not the worse time to buy now.

[jhongzjhong]

update : i still think we have bottomed, tho i also think it's too early to buy now, a flat market is about to take over for a few months "assuming we bottomed". i made a whole topic explaining my theory on why do I think that regadless of wether we have bottomed or not, to me, it's not the best time to buy BTC yet.

I followed all your Technical Analysis thread it seems to be true, I personally don't think the possible happen ahead because I don't want to get discouraged about happening the market. Only a few good news I wanted to read but when I saw your TA I am enlightened now and captured ideas in calculating the market price. Indeed, very informative tho.

[1Referee]

I've grown tired of the btc drama and decided to just let it move where it wants. I'll just be flexible lol.

That's pretty understandable with so many TA charts floating through social media.

It's also impossible to read any crypto related news outlet without being subjected to some random hillbilly TA. I think the main problem isn't so much all these predictions, but the desperation of holding a bag full of expensive coins people want to see pump for once. For most people the crypto market is their first investment sort of experience, so they literally have no clue what's happening here.

In the end, if you're not here to trade, or use Bitcoin, or do whatever else with your time to earn Bitcoin, your stay in the crypto market is boring and a waste of time. There just isn't a way to put it differently.

[Capt00]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

[pooya87]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough.

historically whenever bitcoin enters a certain trend that lasts a long time, people get stuck in that trend even if it comes to an end. right now you may not see the end of bear market so i will give you another example. the bull market in 2017. when it lasted a long time, a lot of people got stuck in it to the point where they didn't want to accept the end of it and were still looking for a new ATH. like Tom Lee or Mcafee insisting on ATH by the end of 2018. now we have the same thing  but in reverse where people want a new ATL and can't accept the reversal and won't until price is at least 50% higher than current price.

[Bezobraznike]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

    We all learned here that the best time for buying is bottom. Now everyone wish to buy when Bitcoin hit`s the bottom.
I don`t bother with trading, I don`t bother with waiting bottom. I buy when I can cause I believe in this market in long-term.
Not all crypto-currencies will rise, so I`m careful when I invest. I choose, I buy and I wait. It`s my long-term plan.

[jhongzjhong]

  We all learned here that the best time for buying is bottom. Now everyone wish to buy when Bitcoin hit`s the bottom.
I don`t bother with trading, I don`t bother with waiting bottom. I buy when I can cause I believe in this market in long-term.
Not all crypto-currencies will rise, so I`m careful when I invest. I choose, I buy and I wait. It`s my long-term plan.

That's the reason why the OP has a Technical Analysis to guide us and have an idea when a possible time of the bottom line to buy. Because investing needs a perfect time to buy trusted coins and in my own, I don't trust altcoins, I give priority on Bitcoin investment and followed by top 5 altcoins in long term purposes. As far as I know, altcoins price were swinging up when the Bitcoin price up.
Anyone of us has a perspective view on the market analysis so if what your's I do respect.

[gabmen]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

    We all learned here that the best time for buying is bottom. Now everyone wish to buy when Bitcoin hit`s the bottom.
I don`t bother with trading, I don`t bother with waiting bottom. I buy when I can cause I believe in this market in long-term.
Not all crypto-currencies will rise, so I`m careful when I invest. I choose, I buy and I wait. It`s my long-term plan.

It's just right not to bother with waiting for the bottom because we wouldn't know when that will come. I agree with your strategy of buying whenever you can at this stage since i believe there's little room for a decline anymore. It's just important that people know how to manage the risk they'll take.

[susuberuang]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

    We all learned here that the best time for buying is bottom. Now everyone wish to buy when Bitcoin hit`s the bottom.
I don`t bother with trading, I don`t bother with waiting bottom. I buy when I can cause I believe in this market in long-term.
Not all crypto-currencies will rise, so I`m careful when I invest. I choose, I buy and I wait. It`s my long-term plan.

It's just right not to bother with waiting for the bottom because we wouldn't know when that will come. I agree with your strategy of buying whenever you can at this stage since i believe there's little room for a decline anymore. It's just important that people know how to manage the risk they'll take.

I think no matter how hard you try to predict the cryptocurrency price movements at the exchange place, it will never be 100% accurate, surely prices will have different movements and the risk is that you can get stuck at expensive prices or you can get a lot of profit if you are lucky .

[numismatist]

1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



the chart you looking at is the BLX, it has the longest data you can possibly find, the first candle goes to first of July 2010.

looking at the chart, we can clearly see that the 50 MA was never closed below and price did have a wick going under but not a single monthly close below.

Interesting observation. So a double bottom touching the 50 MA can be awaited. Since adoption isn't exactly in an ever accellerating state I would try a 55 MA or something, longer time periodes.

7- The lack of support below this level.


The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

This is psychology, not TA. If the bulls can be shaken out by a drop below support, well what to say. If it can, it will just happen like that. "Capitulation" beeing the key.

[numismatist]

URL of BLX charts?

[mikeywith]

This is psychology, not TA.

TA is psychology , if it was math, it would work all the time.

URL of BLX charts?

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BLX/?exchange=BNC

[STT]

Not even about psychology to me, to me it is maths because its about probability not certainties.  If you know a bit of maths you could possibly improve your chances on some fairground games, with that understanding.  This possibility for TA has been there for centuries if we talk about the commodity futures, this I think predates stock trading.   If the harvest comes in well, the price of wheat or whatever would fall greatly but if crops fail then the price booms.   To say the chart or TA done on it was incorrect just because price and fundamentals moved it through resistance or support is not really right, it can be that unlikely events occur and price goes with it.

If people dont like TA then its fair enough, it never offers a sure thing but a profit can be made by knowing when a trend is broken and the action isnt a blip but likely to continue.   Like we had a bit of spike today up and then back down again, it seems to be about the 50 day moving average.   Will it close above that, would be more interesting to see this happening and its been stuck to it like a fly on the ceiling for over a week now.

[exstasie]

Not even about psychology to me, to me it is maths because its about probability not certainties.  If you know a bit of maths you could possibly improve your chances on some fairground games, with that understanding.

Sure but these are separate things. Understanding probability is crucial to being a successful trader, but IMO it really helps to understand the market psychology underlying price moves too. It puts everything into context and keeps one patient enough to wait for the right trading conditions. Market psychology tends to repeat. It's cyclical in nature, which can be exploited as a trader.

[Vaskiy]

Bitcoin has bottomed the value, and now the travel towards the top has begun. All have been sitting tight for that for over a year now man. It might have officially bottomed out or it might at present take a dive, it'll be hard to know even with the most productive, I've become sick of the btc dramatization and chose to simply give it a chance to move where it needs. I'll simply be adaptable lol.

[samcrypto]

Bitcoin has bottomed the value, and now the travel towards the top has begun. All have been sitting tight for that for over a year now man. It might have officially bottomed out or it might at present take a dive, it'll be hard to know even with the most productive, I've become sick of the btc dramatization and chose to simply give it a chance to move where it needs. I'll simply be adaptable lol.

Looking at bitcoin and eth now, i think the bottomed of the market was already hit and its time now to slowly recover from a big loss. This kind of dramatic trend traumatized many newbies, i hope they will comeback and make good investment.

[fabiorem]

Are we out already? I see the price is going to 4k.

Or is it another suckers rally?

[e-coinomist]

Not even about psychology to me, to me it is maths because its about probability not certainties.  If you know a bit of maths you could possibly improve your chances on some fairground games, with that understanding.  This possibility for TA has been there for centuries if we talk about the commodity futures, this I think predates stock trading.

Closer approaching numbers than opinions, so more math than psychology. Fibonacci was no psychologist, but a mathematician. You can always paint from scratch coming to reproduceable conclusions.

However. What about these Fibonacci Tools that I seldom see used for BTC? What about Fibonacci Arcs? What makes me wounder the most ist why are Fibonacci Arcs never shown anywhere inside this forum.
The situation we got today equals an impact crater surface so how to apply an Arc for this short term recovery?



My mood: Still bearish. Just a spring season recovery seems possible. Overall, that's fundamental analysis ... miners cannot sell below production costs, so have to hodl. This situation cannot last forever.

[figmentofmyass]

Are we out already? I see the price is going to 4k.

Or is it another suckers rally?

sucker's rally. looks to me like wave C in a typical ABC pattern.

there's still lots of upside left though. we've only just seen the first leg up and will probably pull back soon. anyone looking to exit shorts or open longs should seriously think about doing so on the next pullback.

[guoyu78]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

Although everyone know that bitcoin is already trading in its lowest price and there are very low chances that bitcoin price will come down any more, but still they feel reluctant for investment and waiting for some more time in fact they are waiting some good news which can surely boost the bitcoin price and I am sure that once bitcoin price will start increasing people will surely join the market and which will give a very good support to the market.

I can see the bitcoin price to bounce back to $10k in next few months.

[STT]

It cant be called a suckers rally when its risen over 10% like this, thats too much to act like it was just a random blip that reversed back down immediately.   Plenty times that will happen but this time its got some legs.
Easy way to avoid that possibility or feeling is not to hold all from bottom to top and always take some profits.   Ideally the profits should exceed the original stake so you no longer able to lose anything, keep examining but I think this move is a readjustment of the range heading upto 4500 as a medium term top and then 6000 is just a maybe as a final target for this overall move.   Sometimes there is secondary booster rockets to the rally and its acts on some news or buying most werent that aware of but I'm not sure of the news exactly to match.   Most of the time it has to go round the block a few times

[Idrisu]

before you start reading. if you think TA is useless, gtfo now because this is going to be painful to read.

if you believe in TA and history repeating itself on the chart, jump in this could be very interesting.


I made a few posts regarding Bitcoin price prediction, with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA ( this line goes to those who say TA is bullshit but didn't gtfo   ) > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5071613.100

-------------------------------------------------

Ok b.s aside  let us first start with analyzing the big picture of bitcoin, and why do i think that we have either bottomed out or just about to bottom out.

I will be combining a few a technical views, some of which i have mentioned before.

1- 50 Moving Average on the monthly chart.



the chart you looking at is the BLX, it has the longest data you can possibly find, the first candle goes to first of July 2010.

looking at the chart, we can clearly see that the 50 MA was never closed below and price did have a wick going under but not a single monthly close below.

while the current monthly candle have not really touched the MA which is why i think we could possible have make another slightly lower low with a wick that can go to as low as 2000$ but the monthly candle has to close above 2900$ for this 50 moving average to be valid.

2- 200 Moving Average on the weekly chart



almost the same look of the monthly 50 MA, except that on this weekly chart we did actually touch the 200MA and bounce right of it, you can also see that the 200 weekly moving average has never had a single weekly close below it, price did have a wick but not a close, and this suggest that if we were going to go down again to touch the monthly 50 moving on the monthly then price will come up fast enough before a weekly close.

3- The 2800-3100 is a major support/resistance level.



this price level has acted as both support and resistance level for about 105 days during last year. for 105 days it was the only critical line on site level that traders had their buys and sells around, it held the almost 35% drop in Aug 2017 and price surged from there.

 many traders have been setting their long positions at around the area, which justifies the recent pump, as many traders think that we bottomed out and are trying to enter as early as the can.

4- The Stotcastic RSI on the monthly chart



 the Stochastic RSI is at as low as the bottom of 2014 ranging at around 0.24 , while we still need to see a cross to confirm the start of an up trend , and since is is a monthly chart so another 500-1000$ drop from the latest low won't have much of an impact on the monthly layout which indicates an over sold market that is ready to change bullish.


5- The RSI on the monthly chart




The current value of the RSI is 45 while the last bear market had a bottomed out at 44, this only indicates that there is no much room for more dips, and the bottom should be there or just around the corner.


6- The ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart

 

sorry about the dark black ground on this one.

nothing much to say about this, it's clear that every time the red cloud appears, the bear market get's closer to end.


7- The lack of support below this level.



The bulls know for sure this support is a do or die, as we certainly have no sort of support below this until 900-1100$ , with only a minor weak support that has been tested only once, technically that support line is as good as not there, therefore the need for defending this area and to never have a weekly candle close below 2900 is very important for the bulls.

-----------------------------------------------------------------


Now giving the fact that these analysis are based on large time frames, so the results will only confirm in months from now, saying we could have bottomed out does not mean you look at the hourly chart and say why are we dropping , the chart on the small time frame still looks as bearish as hell, so if you are a day trader then you should be following the current trend to place your positions, but if you are a long term trader then you should be only using any potential dip to buy so you can level up a good average price of your holdings.

it makes 0 sense to sell now if you are planning to hold for so long, i expect the price to test the 5k region and then make another leg down, this can be a good change to short and then to re enter the sub 3k as most likely every bottom has to be tested twice before making a V shape to the upside.

also keep in mind that the end of bearish trend does not mean the start of a bull run, it usually means a few months of consolidation between the bottom and the last high of the last leg down , which in our case if we were to assume 3k to be the bottom then the siedways market will be between 6k and 3k which can last from a few months to a whole a year before breaking the 6k and going on a bull run that will mark new ATHs.

long story short, buy around 3k , sell around 6k  until once of those levels are broken then you act accordingly. if you don't know how to trade,and you failed to sell at 5.7k then don't sell now, the room to the upside now is more than that to the downside.

This is not a financial advice, trade safe. follow the trend.






 

It is a great analysis you have made here and I think we were in the bottom in December 2018. Most of the technical analysis indicators point to that and it is those with long standing knowledge on the market and it behavior that will understand this.

[sirohige]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

[joshy23]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

Trying to wait for the bottom will only caused a delayed for your investment to prosper, starting to buy and wait will results to a good position after
some time, as many things can happen after this long bearish trend has been replaced by the new bull market, preparing your mindset to take the
jumped and risk for better results.

[michellee]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

I think they can wait for a while to buy bitcoin because I think after the price makes the high price, it will go down for a while, so that is the best time to them to buy bitcoin. But if they miss that time, then I don't know if they will see a low price again except if there is a flash dump that might happen in anytime.

[mikeywith]

I think they can wait for a while to buy bitcoin because I think after the price makes the high price, it will go down for a while, so that is the best time to them to buy bitcoin.

this is the likely scenario,  what most people don't understand about market shifts is that it has to be slow and it takes time, so the moment they  see bitcoin rising 300$ they think this the cheapest it will be, they jump in , prices drop, they sell for loss, rinse and repeat.

or the worse scenario is, they buy now, a few months later, price is back at where they bough or lower, they give up, sell , and then bull run starts.

[toknormal]

with no bragging what so ever, i managed to sell before the collapse, re-bought very close to the last low, thanks to TA

Just about everybody sold something "at the top" and bought something "a the bottom".

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

[STT]

I dont think he should have to sell absolutely everything, that sounds like an overally risky gamble based strategy.   From what I've seen people only have to be right in general to do very well, trying to time the exact top and bottom is a bit of a fallacy.    The reason for that might be that volume is not highest at the peak price, it thins out which is why it looks sharp on the graph as there is not enough buyers there to keep the price.  
Once its spiked up then others following recognise and tend to join into the sell, it gathers momentum and so on.   On the more positive side, that can happen with the bottom where its not really recognised by many and quite a few are exhausted by the move and got their heads on the desks or hands as literally they gave up.  

  Its ironic I guess, actually trying to be one of the few at the top or bottom is not a sensible target and I try to learn or recognise that joining into a trend is actually healthy.    Forming good instincts is all I hope for really, as I think this will make me far better off then that lucky gamble win scenario imo

[mikeywith]

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

sold everything at the break down from 5700$ , but did i go all in  at the exact bottom? indeed not,  this is not how trading work, you short and long bitcoin to generate more btc whenever the chance presents itself, i do not care where the bottom is, it's irrelevant, i would buy more btc if we go above 6k than if we head to 3k , for a hodler, it's stupid , for a trader it makes sense that you follow the trend.  these are two different things that you shouldn't be mixing together.

[jozymens7]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

[shesheboy]

Why are you guys waiting for the bitcoin to go down? If you can actually go now and invest, learn how to trade and that's enough. Blockchain is booming and these days you will see that it will grow. It seems pretty good TA but I didn't convince that there's a bottomed and I think we already reached that. Good job for the analysis and it is very informative, as well.

many people wait for the price of bitcoin to fall because they want to buy at a cheap price, but for now it will never happen again because in 2020 there will be a halving day event that might make the price to rise very expensive.

Anything can possibly happen because cryptocurrency are still volatile  .  2020 is still a long year and no one can guarantee that halving can improve the growth of the coins  .   its hard to say this but the truth is that there is no bottom price limit for all the cryptos  . they can all drop until they hit zero  depending on the mood on the investors and hodlers  .

[exstasie]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

We really don't know if the market bottomed out yet or not. Maybe, maybe not. Top callers and bottom callers get slaughtered by the market, always. Good TA always waits for confirmation.

So the bottom may very well be in, but wise traders will continue betting on the long term bear trend until it's confirmed over. It's the only sensible way to approach the market as a trader. That means selling into the current rally with the expectation of revisiting the $3,000s or lower.

[toknormal]

The question is, did you sell your entire stash and re-buy it at the bottom ? That would be the measure of "faith in TA"  

sold everything at the break down from 5700$

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

[mikeywith]

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

5,700$ is the top now, you can only dream to be able to sell it for that price, and based on your comment i can only assume that you don't know shit about trading, shorting btc at 5700$ and taking profit at 3k area is a ton of profit, btc fell  almost 50% from that level, if i was to re-buy now i would have  1.5BTC for each 1 BTC sold at 5.7k , let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

[Wind_FURY]

That's practically the bottom given that the top was $19,500. So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

5,700$ is the top now, you can only dream to be able to sell it for that price, and based on your comment i can only assume that you don't know shit about trading, shorting btc at 5700$ and taking profit at 3k area is a ton of profit, btc fell  almost 50% from that level, if i was to re-buy now i would have  1.5BTC for each 1 BTC sold at 5.7k , let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

Ok, you know a lot of shit about trading. But what would be more profitable if I want to make some money from the Bitcoin market today, your active day trading strategy, or the HODL?

[Sanitough]

Many TAs said the market has not bottomed out yet. The same way happened when the bear market started so IMO, there are no perfect predictions about bullish or bear trends. The trends come at their own comfortable time and sometimes, the activities of some of the TAs kesps the market sinking.

That's just them feeling expert and knows the future, but the fact is they are wrong most of the time.
When more and more people are agreeing to the price whatever TA is that, it will reflect to the public's perception and in that way, whales can abuse us.
What's the use of TA if the market is still under the manipulation of the whale, they don't need any indicator, they just do what they want.

[1Referee]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.

[fabiorem]

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

I have noticed that, too. It seems we are having higher lows, instead of lower highs. It looks like a reversal, but it is going slowly, giving us time to prepare. I think it is safe to buy in small amounts, right now, but with some orders at lower prices, in case it falls more.

Another thing I noticed is that a certain exchange (cant recall which one, right now) have increased the margin trading for its users. Maybe it is a sign that people are losing interest in it, and want to accumulate, instead of margin trading.

[LUCKMCFLY]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

If anything, if this ascending triangle we're in breaks out, shorters will very likely be rekt just as hard longers were rekt seeing the price tank from $6000 to where we are right now. Bullish market people expect higher prices, bearish market people expect lower prices. I don't blame people for being conservative, but there is no point in exaggerating this whole situation.

I totally agree with you, although I am not in favor of believing in the triangles, but I can say that in the market phase we are, the Strong Hands are going to have to raise the price to try the offer, and obviously the triangle will break upwards, but the logic and understanding of the market that goes much further, will indicate that it will go down, because simply the Strong Hands need to take profits after those movements, since they will not allow themselves to lose. Then the triangle breaks, but then the fall will be brutal, obviously at that moment the analysis is will invalidated.

[exstasie]

let alone buying at 3.2k. if you think that both 5700$ and 3200$ are bottoms then you need a brain check.

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily. Back then (above $6000) we settled lower high after lower high within a descending triangle, and we kep testing the same support levels over and over again. Right now we're doing the exact opposite. Higher lows and we keep testing the upper resistance levels between $4000-$4300.

We can't discard $3,200 yet; it's a weekly pivot at historical support (200-week MA).

However there's been no sign yet that it's actually a bottom. We haven't been able to a form a higher high on the weekly chart since 2017 and that's still true today. With no such recovery and no high volume capitulation at the bottom, there's just no reason to put much stock in the December low. It's probably just a local bottom like the September 2014 pivot.......more blood to come.

[mikeywith]

You can't possibly discard $3200 that easily.

i think you have missed understood my statement, maybe if you read it in context it will make more sense, that statement was a response to that guy who said selling at 5.7k  and buying at 3.2k is more or like

So you sold at the bottom and bought at the bottom ? Nice !  

he thinks that selling at 5.7k was selling at bottom, but anyway i know he doesn't know shit, so no point re-explaining anything.

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway  ?

[exstasie]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

[adaseb]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.

[Pursuer]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway  ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250 or even go lower to $100, it never did and I had a large loss.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

[exstasie]

i indeed do not discard 3200$ , by the way doesn't this whole topic go against me "discarding" 3200$ anyway   ?

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

I was around during the 2014-2015 bear market and it was pretty similiar to what we have right now. Basically there was lots of positive news out regarding Cryptos in the news reports. There was lots of positive developements.

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

Yes indeed. There are a couple key differences this time though. For one thing, sentiment doesn't seem to have hit despair levels like we saw back then. People are turning bullish off any $200 pump. There's still lots of hope in the air.

I agree about the low volumes, but another key difference was the high volume at the January 2015 bottom, which marked the lowest point of the bear market. We still haven't seen a similar event this time around to help confirm the bottom is really in:

[mikeywith]

What probability would you give? I'd say 50-50 (at best) if I'm being honest. The lack of V-bottom, the lack of volume on the "recovery".....and based on the similarity to the 2014 market, we have to leave open a strong possibility that we'll plunge below the 200-week MA rather than just hovering above it. I'm leaning towards a painful dip below the December bottom. Fingers crossed that we see a classic recovery off that.

TA wise i'd say it's well over 70% that we have bottomed, but the fact that everyone and their mother is thinking so makes it look like we have not, i don't like to see the majority of people being optimistic , most think that buying bitcoin at 3k is the deal of their lives, nothing TA based but this fact alone makes me worry, market bottoms are not supposed to work this way, as long as i still see people calling for bottom it's safe to assume that we could very likely fall from here.

but i also don't really care, and so shouldn't anybody else, as long as you don't treat bitcoin like a lottery ticket then you will always be on the winning side, let's just work with that we got now.

here is what we know.

the mid-low 3k is a strong support.
the mid low 4k is a strong resistance.
the mid-high 5k is the strongest resistance ahead that will likely never break for at least Q2,Q3 2019  even if this is the bottom.
be it the bottom or not, we should expect a very low volume, side ways for days/weeks followed by a spike or a dip of 300-500$ from time to time.

i expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4  2019 should be much more interesting.

[figmentofmyass]

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.

[joy99]

I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.

[Ipwich]

I wouldn't call for bitcoin's bottom out because right now in traders/investors want to take their profits, they will just selling and take their profits and then back to our 33.3K again. This is how they a]keep doing us so I don't trust the market and its price movement beause some people can choose to destroy the market.

Do you mean 3.3K? Well, who really knows, if they are selling I'm sure there are only the whales who are doing that.
Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

Let the whales do their thing, they'll be tired bringing the price down eventually, next thing will happen is a price uptrend. s

[buwaytress]

However price still kept going lower and lower. Volumes were very low. Retail interest was dying off. Miners were selling all their gear. People were basically expecting double digit Bitcoin and were going to buy at $100, however it never happened.

I don't really agree with your second paragraph specially since there has never been any evidence to support that. I clearly remember people becoming bored with the market and newbies who wanted to become rich lost their hope but I don't remember seeing any hashrate drops (which you said miners selling their gear) specially since price was very stable during the $2xx time and mining profit was as stable as the price.

it didn't drop significantly but like 2011, the hash rate plateaued during the bear market. i don't have any sources in front of me, but i remember hearing some stories of miners liquidating their operations in late 2014 or early 2015 because of the bear market. when you consider that businesses of scale like bitmain were taking over the market at that time, there were likely lots of smaller and more marginal operations being forced out of business.

Actually, I do recall reading similar stories about that period. Unfortunately, this doesn't seem to have evidenced itself in the historical charts I've seen about hashrate. Or if it did, it pales in comparison to the drop we saw last year. Like you said too, Bitmain's problems are the other big indicator that it's a lot more severe this time around.

OP, utxo analysis released recently is also indicating bottom is near... Seller exhaustion and accumulation the indicators. Let's see. 1 month left before q1 is over.

[mikeywith]

Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70%  down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.

[LeGaulois]

Majority of the investors already sold at higher $10K and take profit, some bought when the price dump and they are still holding it now, so if they will sell, it's like they are doing a suicide mission.

and how do you exactly know that the "majority of investors sold at higher 10k?" this is rather an thought of speculation, giving that we are 70%  down from 10k it doesn't seem like majority sold at 10k.

He's half right, I wouldn't say it's the majority but there are sure a lot of folks who left the market. At 20k-15k-10k I have no idea but the market has been cleaned a lot. Maybe something not bad in the end since only people who believe in the cryptos uses will stay (generally speaking I mean)

expect the coming 6 months to be slow as fuck, Q4  2019 should be much more interesting.

+1 I find the market boring recently

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@LeGaulois - Slow moving, sideways markets are great for accumulating. Don’t complain about great opportunities to gobble up cheap coins.

We all know where this market is going eventually so let’s have some patience

[LeGaulois]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

[2chase]

I can say with confidence that Bitcoin has long been no longer like ordinary money. The current political situation on the planet is something that has a much greater impact on Bitcoin than technical analysis. That is why technical analysis to predict the price of Bitcoin is possible only for short periods of time.

[mikeywith]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

assuming we have bottomed, then you "might" see  those numbers by end of 2019, maybe Nov / Dec .

it's very likely that we will be ranging between 3 and sub 4k range till then, hardly possibly anything above 5k, now all of this assuming we have already bottomed, things will take longer if we have not.

[LeGaulois]

I've been waiting for years so I can wait a little longer. It's just that I miss the good old days with 10% ups/downs, a little bit of boost will give a little excitement too. Not a lot, something about $7k-$8k, it's too long since we're crawling in the $3k-$4k range.

assuming we have bottomed, then you "might" see  those numbers by end of 2019, maybe Nov / Dec .

it's very likely that we will be ranging between 3 and sub 4k range till then, hardly possibly anything above 5k, now all of this assuming we have already bottomed, things will take longer if we have not.

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

[mikeywith]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

[hotimbineh]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals, because we are still optimistic that bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

[Sanitough]

$7k-$8k would be a good scenario for the end of the year, I don't ask for more. But look at the market currently, it lacks some good signals (whatever it is, good news, optimism,...) and it has less interest. It needs just some sparks here and there, I am sure it will be enough to "make Bitcoin great again!"

goods news = bear market about to hit

it has always been this way, the fact that we see less good news and more bad news alone is good, it might not make sense, but you can look at the charts, compare it with news timing, it's almost always the same case, people talk about btc dying and going to 0 = bull run soon and vise versa.

and i still do think that 7-8k is doable by year end, but the fomo won't kick in by then, the biggest fomo of btc history will be pass 20k .

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals, because we are still optimistic that bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

7-8k is very conservative as prediction, if the bear will be over this year,  we can easily get back to $6,000.
I don't know but my prediction this year is we are going higher than 7-8k , probably we will reach $10,000 this year, which is 50% of the ATH last 2017.

[mikeywith]

bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

well assuming we have bottomed then most likely we will go way pass 7-8k in 2020, assuming we haven't bottomed then 7-8 won't happen anywhere before 2021. the next coming months should be give is a clear signal of what to expect for 2020, i think by June we will have enough data to confirm the outcome.

[Kelvinid]

bitcoin will rise at 7k-8k but not now I'm sure this will happen in 2020 because 2019 is a line market to gradually increase small pumps

well assuming we have bottomed then most likely we will go way pass 7-8k in 2020, assuming we haven't bottomed then 7-8 won't happen anywhere before 2021. the next coming months should be give is a clear signal of what to expect for 2020, i think by June we will have enough data to confirm the outcome.

It only be happen if the trend will continue to rallying going up but thinking how it fluctuates, we still not get high percentage for its continuous pumps. Last 2017 it started to rise by second quarter and hoping it will happen this year again even though not just like of 2017 event but at least we could see some inclining activities around.

[STT]

all forum members certainly don't care about the negative news from some sites and individuals

I would not say all, theres still quite alot of speculators who use leverage to participate in the market and thats naturally going to make the price flakey and unstable until pricing can find a sure footing to rise up past resistance.   We have to break through ceilings that have set from previous support lost, old buyers who just waited or left a sell order at their buy price have to be passed on the way back up.

This is all just normal markets but BTC still has alot of doubt in it and I dont think leverage helps fight this as the hot money will just flee and sell when tested.   A proper bottom price is found when some attempt to force price down to shake out people but there is no takers.    A bear will sometimes bluff attack an enemy its unsure of to assess the risk rather then take the actual fight, we have alot bluff bear attacks that arent especially real and it probably takes real holders to stand their ground and hold anyway.    Genuine usage helps alot

The whole 4500 to 6000 is a battleground.   Right now we just staging the fight to get to 4500 and that might take till summer for all I know

Eventually out of the blue right after most days had barely any trading activity it just kept going up and up. I remember shorting at $300 because I assumed it would go back down to $200-$250

I'm sure I sold some around then and assumed it was not doing much.   The hype of halvening meant it fell a little and nobody thought much of the idea of a bottom there.

[mikeywith]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

[adaseb]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

You should post some updates charts, especially the 200 SMA weekly. Basically since we had a huge rally in the last 200 weeks the 200SMA price keeps increasing every week that goes by. Currently its at $3448, when you made this thread back in December it was at $3220.

Now depending how much chop we keep getting for the next few months, price can go nowhere and it might reach $3900 for the 200 SMA weekly and it can easily break it while the $3100 might still hold.

[iv4n]

Here is an update regarding the OP.

up to this moment, more signals are starting to appear on the charts are suggest we have already bottomed.

everything mentioned in this analysis will be invalidated if we close below both 200SMA on the weekly and 50SMA on the monthly, as well as the  major support area that still sits around 2700-3200. these now are the major bottom-guide-line , this is pretty much all we have from history data.

a close below 2700$ is a probably a fall to 1100$  or 1800$ at best case scenario although that is a very week support.


so what do we do now ?

we stay calm, relax. do not rush to sell should price dip fast below support areas, wait for at least a daily candle, we are closer to the bottom than ever, some shaking out will happen, many people will fold right before the bull run, DO NOT RUSH,DO NOT FOMO, relax and watch only the daily chart for now, do not stress yourself with small time frames, nothing major is going to happen, we will probably have this slow market around for months, a few wicks can happen here and there, do not fall for it, and when you see a clear sign for another waterfall, do not sit there and wait, dump it while you can.

What to do now? If you truly believe that this is bottom sell what you can and buy more bitcoins, if you aren`t sure than wait with what you have and buy something extra if you can afford it. I will share one nice picture I saw the other day, you judge it for yourself:

What you think, does he regret his decision now?

[exstasie]

What to do now? If you truly believe that this is bottom sell what you can and buy more bitcoins, if you aren`t sure than wait with what you have and buy something extra if you can afford it. I will share one nice picture I saw the other day, you judge it for yourself:

What you think, does he regret his decision now?

If he never bought back, sure.

At the time, it was an excellent sell though. From there, Bitcoin fell all the way to $2 over the next several months. Selling $14 and buying back a year later at $5-7 after price stabilized and broke the 2011 downtrend = $$$. That's the best way to trade this market. Don't worry about tops and bottoms, just trade the trend.

[2chase]

I do not really hope for classical technical analysis when it comes to Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is no longer an ordinary financial asset, now its fate depends on world political change much more than on technical analysis. Technical analysis has not shown us the real situation for a long time.

[mikeywith]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

[Japinat]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

Now that it seems we are in the bull run, we might heard again john mcafee shilling some of the coins.
This guy had some success in the past and gain a of followers on his pump game, but it was a pump and dump, and in the end, he didn't have
to risk any amount of money just to make good money.

[omonuyak]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

That is why it is good for speculators to comeout with analysis in backing up of what they are telling us.  I think we are going to have good days in days to come and for me I am really seeing positive outlook in all things.

[Ipwich]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

That is why it is good for speculators to comeout with analysis in backing up of what they are telling us.  I think we are going to have good days in days to come and for me I am really seeing positive outlook in all things.

I believe in OP that Bitcoin has Bottomed out, and that made me so confident going forward because I know I survive until BTC bottomed out.
It's my goal to ensure good profit and holding for long term is still my best way of achieving it, I'm just glad that there are people who shares their opinion about crypto and they are bullish as well.

[LeGaulois]

The value has lost something like $200 or $300 in just one day which makes me think that despite analyses, predictions or statistics there is currently something unnatural that is causing this volatility that doesn't fit with the current market, the BTC value and/or other things.
I mean, we currently have a volatility rate that we had before when Bitcoin went from $15k to $20k (for example).

[lionheart78]

The value has lost something like $200 or $300 in just one day which makes me think that despite analyses, predictions or statistics there is currently something unnatural that is causing this volatility that doesn't fit with the current market, the BTC value and/or other things.
I mean, we currently have a volatility rate that we had before when Bitcoin went from $15k to $20k (for example).

It is already given that during a certain period, Bitcoin fluctuates.  People trade, buy and sell, other plays the market playing along within the support level and resistance.  I hope that you are right about seeing the pattern towards $15k to $20k. and somehow the news about China planning to ban cryto mining won't affect the market.  This kind of news somehow plays as a wild card and often times make the TA and technical predictions to fail.

[figmentofmyass]

These analysis were posted  almost 4 months ago , i am looking at present charts and damn, it's like looking in a mirror.

it's amazing how many answers are in the charts yet many people chose to listen to the news and john mcafee.

I would love to revisit this topic by year end and see how far did we move from these analysis.

you think we have formed the top of this rally? looks like we're gonna close with a bearish engulfing on the daily.

i was hoping to tag at least $5600 but we're at the point where this is liable to dump at any time. it's been a good ride into this resistance.....

[mikeywith]

you think we have formed the top of this rally? looks like we're gonna close with a bearish engulfing on the daily.

i was hoping to tag at least $5600 but we're at the point where this is liable to dump at any time. it's been a good ride into this resistance.....

not sure if you are following my other thread > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5125728.40

I have mentioned that we were going very likely going to have a rally to the 50SMA which we almost hit , only 2.77% off.

i have also mentioned this

if you entered at the weekly close then you are now at decent profit, move your SL to break even, and start taking profits slowly.

we can very likely test 5600$ but i would exist all long positions and probably enter short positions at 5450$.

price went to as high as 5490$ , 5450 was the perfect place to at least close long potions if you are not into shorting.


we can very likely still touch the 5600$ mark or even have a wick through to 5700$  but the problem with this area in particular is the lack of support. 4600$ is the nearest reasonable support therefore it makes no sense to risk 800$ on the way down for that 150$ on the way up.

but as i type price is at 5080$ so that risk wise is almost equal, if i was still in any long positions  a close below 4590$ would be my SL and the last top 5490$ would be my TP.


i am in shorts potions now, entered at 5450$ , slowly locking in profit despite the fact that the signs are leaning towards a bigger correction to the downside.

[mikeywith]

so, Has Bitcoin Bottomed out ? or are you still waiting for 2k?  

meanwhile, I am watching for a break out on this triangle, gotta be a good move I suppose, don't miss out  !

[STT]

I was thinking also its something of a crossroads, not a time to really stand in the way whichever way it breaks.    Btw 200 weekly and 50 monthly should be fairly close as there is roughly 4 weeks in a month, they are quite near to similar price averages

I'm waiting for daily channel to break, as of yet its mostly threatened to break upwards not downwards; July 2nd low was the best attempt.    It cant be called a failure but at least some of the people in the price were wanting more to build when its only waved up and down for over a fortnight, just that can lead some to sell.   I dont know it leads to a sell but thats really the power move I would expect rather then upwards directly from here.



Any trader wants volatility for the profit of the movement, but dont think thats a reason by itself.    If it were then 6000 would be a good move and its the year average and very familiar bottom pricing to previous sells

[mikeywith]

The possiblity of breaking this channel to the upside is more likely than not, my only concern as of now is that gravestone doji, it clearly shows that the bears are very strong from 12k to 14k , a dozen of sell orders must be there, it is unlikely that we can break it on first attempt.

The other problem is, the next sell-off might continue a bit lower, but overall on an up trend like this one, it is always wiser to bet on the upside.

[Febo]

so, Has Bitcoin Bottomed out ? or are you still waiting for 2k?  

Some are still waiting. But they dont even expect it this year but only mid next year. It almost sounds like trolling.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg51741555#msg51741555

[STT]

I agree its better to go with a bullish bet with a trend that has clearly resembled upwards for so long, its not the first time I've heard that over the years.   Expecting a trend break is going against the odds.    You might well be right going on this news which I just spotted, generally when they are wanting to ban BTC its completely ironic and a sign of its growing usage

[mikeywith]

generally when they are wanting to ban BTC its completely ironic and a sign of its growing usage

Technical analysis aside, if you want to be on the winning side, avoid everything the news tell you, when the news are bad, it's a great chance to buy bitcoin, I can almost exactly predict where this rally is going to stop, the new ATH will be right about when everyone and their grandmother start talking about ETF and how the world is just about to adopt BTC and get rid of all the dollar bills , when you hear that shit, go short   , as of now, the news are not so great, which is a very bullish sign as you mentioned, but also they are not as bad, so this rally might be a bit slow.

[exstasie]

The possiblity of breaking this channel to the upside is more likely than not, my only concern as of now is that gravestone doji, it clearly shows that the bears are very strong from 12k to 14k , a dozen of sell orders must be there, it is unlikely that we can break it on first attempt.

The gravestone/shooting star setup was worrisome but the market never established a real reversal signal, since we never closed below the body of the doji. The dip below the 20-day MA was bought up hard. Now we've formed a higher high to break the short term downtrend too.

I could see the market chopping around for a couple weeks longer before going into full bull mode again, but this all looks very constructive for  bullish continuation.

[WinslowIII]

The possiblity of breaking this channel to the upside is more likely than not, my only concern as of now is that gravestone doji, it clearly shows that the bears are very strong from 12k to 14k , a dozen of sell orders must be there, it is unlikely that we can break it on first attempt.

The gravestone/shooting star setup was worrisome but the market never established a real reversal signal, since we never closed below the body of the doji. The dip below the 20-day MA was bought up hard. Now we've formed a higher high to break the short term downtrend too.

I could see the market chopping around for a couple weeks longer before going into full bull mode again, but this all looks very constructive for  bullish continuation.

You spend way too much time studying technicals and not enough time understanding how GD fucked the fiat based economies have become. The debt crisis is coming - bitcoin would have zero value if the world economies weren't in serious trouble.  This was Buffet's mistake, he was assuming that we weren't fucked. If he were right, his conclusions would have been spot on.

[mikeywith]

I could see the market chopping around for a couple weeks longer

I won't be surprised if that happen, by looking at start of the rally of  2015, after the first mini rally and right after we broke above the ichimoku cloud price went into a sideways market for nearly 200 days, but evidence show that this year momentum is faster (we ignored the second bottom) we tend to fast forward a few movements, so 200 days might not be it for this run, but a few weeks of sideways makes a lot of sense, it also gives the trend a lot more health/power to run further.

[exstasie]

The gravestone/shooting star setup was worrisome but the market never established a real reversal signal, since we never closed below the body of the doji. The dip below the 20-day MA was bought up hard. Now we've formed a higher high to break the short term downtrend too.

I could see the market chopping around for a couple weeks longer before going into full bull mode again, but this all looks very constructive for  bullish continuation.

You spend way too much time studying technicals and not enough time understanding how GD fucked the fiat based economies have become.

What good would it do me to dwell on that?

I make a living off trading. Riding the waves puts bread on my table so TA is much more interesting to me. I've already reached all my BTC accumulation goals so I'm not selling away my future by trading. I'm just here trying to churn out them dirty fiat profits.

[WinslowIII]

The gravestone/shooting star setup was worrisome but the market never established a real reversal signal, since we never closed below the body of the doji. The dip below the 20-day MA was bought up hard. Now we've formed a higher high to break the short term downtrend too.

I could see the market chopping around for a couple weeks longer before going into full bull mode again, but this all looks very constructive for  bullish continuation.

You spend way too much time studying technicals and not enough time understanding how GD fucked the fiat based economies have become.

What good would it do me to dwell on that?

I make a living off trading. Riding the waves puts bread on my table so TA is much more interesting to me. I've already reached all my BTC accumulation goals so I'm not selling away my future by trading. I'm just here trying to churn out them dirty fiat profits.

You gamble for a living then? short term bitcoin trading might as well be playing blackjack at the casino.

[exstasie]

You spend way too much time studying technicals and not enough time understanding how GD fucked the fiat based economies have become.

What good would it do me to dwell on that?

I make a living off trading. Riding the waves puts bread on my table so TA is much more interesting to me. I've already reached all my BTC accumulation goals so I'm not selling away my future by trading. I'm just here trying to churn out them dirty fiat profits.

You gamble for a living then? short term bitcoin trading might as well be playing blackjack at the casino.

I would liken it more to playing poker than blackjack. I'm taking other people's money in EV+ situations, not playing against the house with bad odds. You might consider it gambling but I've been successful at it for several years. To each his own.

[mikeywith]

I almost forgot I made this bitcoin bottom analysis more than 2 years ago, It has been a wild journey ever since, I believe in a few months I shall be posting another analysis on how bitcoin has likely topped, interesting times ahead, I take this chance to praise everyone (myself included  ) for staying strong when the majority of people were in panic mode, it's easy now to look back and say, oh, it was obvious and simple! since 2 years have passed and the price moved from 3k to over 50k, but it was certainly not easy then.

Those who were strong enough to enter when all the media and 90% of everyone around them was telling them BTC was going to zero, congratulations you deserve to own bitcoin when everyone wants to buy it for 50k.

[fadhilz123]

I almost forgot I made this bitcoin bottom analysis more than 2 years ago, It has been a wild journey ever since, I believe in a few months I shall be posting another analysis on how bitcoin has likely topped, interesting times ahead, I take this chance to praise everyone (myself included  ) for staying strong when the majority of people were in panic mode, it's easy now to look back and say, oh, it was obvious and simple! since 2 years have passed and the price moved from 3k to over 50k, but it was certainly not easy then.

Those who were strong enough to enter when all the media and 90% of everyone around them was telling them BTC was going to zero, congratulations you deserve to own bitcoin when everyone wants to buy it for 50k.

I join in Cryptocurrency in 2017 and start to buy my First Bitcoin, When Bullrun comes and my asset grow to a value that I could never imagine then I believe that this coin is a future investment and the price will continue moon

Because I don't have enough knowledge and my mind keeps saying "will to the moon", so I keep hold it until I regret my decision. After that, I start to learn about the chart and I know that we cant to always moon, Big correction will happen after Bullrun

Keep sharing your prediction and knowledge sir, I will be faithfully waiting for your predictions

[fadhilz123]

Big correction for Bitcoin and Altcoins, but I don't see any new analysis from you. I think your thread will so helpful for many people.
When you will update about the condition of the market?? I prepare to buy now, but I think more bearish will come, What do you think?

[mapsfly]

Big correction for Bitcoin and Altcoins, but I don't see any new analysis from you. I think your thread will so helpful for many people.
When you will update about the condition of the market?? I prepare to buy now, but I think more bearish will come, What do you think?

really?
It can go down to 40k or up to 100k soon

its at 44k and your super worried about some small downside from here when there is massive upside ahead.

you should be happy you had cash on the sideline and can now enter here

[MCobian]

I think Bitcoin support is very strong at $ 45k, falling several times to $ 44k but it doesn't last long to get back to $ 45k again. It is likely that
the Bitcoin price is now at its bottom and the recommendation to buy Bitcoin is now. I am optimistic that in the next few days the Bitcoin price
should go up to a price of $ 50k, if this is achieved I can be sure the Bitcoin price will continue to go up to a price of $ 58k. So now is the perfect
time to buy Bitcoin.

[STT]

Bit of a legendary thread this one, good timing call and yea that was a nasty period around end of 2018.   The lows could have lasted alot longer in theory, my current TA is we are consolidating and recently beat a negative trend  Highs are capped in aspirations but seems best to remain optimistic so long as we remain above 48k and you are right not everyone likes TA but its a good guide not an absolute yes or no more probable outcomes imo.

[Arkann]

I think Bitcoin support is very strong at $ 45k, falling several times to $ 44k but it doesn't last long to get back to $ 45k again. It is likely that
the Bitcoin price is now at its bottom and the recommendation to buy Bitcoin is now. I am optimistic that in the next few days the Bitcoin price
should go up to a price of $ 50k, if this is achieved I can be sure the Bitcoin price will continue to go up to a price of $ 58k. So now is the perfect
time to buy Bitcoin.

In any case, Bitcoin is an alternative and quite valuable asset compared to other assets and the constant attraction of large capital strengthens the position of bitcoin. I am sure that the owners of large investment portfolios are not interested in the fall of bitcoin and will use all kinds of leverage to support this asset. Therefore, I am sure that the only way for Bitcoin is upward direction, of course allowing small corrections.