Predicting a bull/bear run

[deandree]

Few months ago I built a tool to see if there is any correlation and/or time delay between pump starting on one exchange and price change in others. My conclusion was that there is almost 0 difference and 0 chance to use this for profit, unless you are looking at  milliseconds and have a very fast bot close to exchanges. You have to keep in mind there are thousands of bots looking at each exchange in any point in time, so you can't take advantage of this if you are trading manually. Even if you have a good bot, you have to be a top top player in this.

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[Capt.Morris]

tool and bots are a fair in real time judgement, I see a bear market but tools may say a bull for a short period of time.

[Harlot]

It doesn't guarantee that the price change in one exchange will also happen in direct proportion to other exchanges. I have observed it in the past some exchanges' prices always jumps wilder than other smaller exchanges so it is really hard to based your decision on such price movements. I even also see sometimes that even when the price jumps on another exchange the other prices of some exchange don't even move at all even after 20-30 seconds.

[Ewinsane]

Suppose he is playing on Bitstamp one day.
Then big price changes happen on Bitstamp, and in very short time those changes propagate to other exchanges, right?

But i am sure they propagate with some delay, maybe 30 seconds, so that if you trade on a minor exchange, you have all the time to take measures before the big change propagates to the exchange you are using.

It is always good to look into negative side before trying anything which will be involving with your hard earned money.
I'm giving you two scenarios where you may get failed with your observation :

1. There are multiple major exchanges, hence you cannot be sure a tide of new trend will always be happening where you are watching. It may or may not happen where you are watching. I guess, incorporating a bot for watching a sudden change may help in this regard.

2. Some buy or sell may not sustain within an exchange also. It means, if bitcoin is pumped in bitstamp and you are buying in a some small exchange and then you are waiting for others to rush-in. But, there will be a chances in bitstamp itself prices are getting dumped. It means a sudden wave may get neutralized within an exchange also.

[cryptocrusher]

The price levels out across most smaller exchanges within minutes or seconds to major movements because of arbitrage, there's little to learn from it and that's the only real way to profit from it, it is now largely dominated by bots however.

[Baby Dragon]

Actually, no one can predict if next year there will be another bull run or bear market. However, we most expect in bull run which we can gain and regain income and losses. I expecting for another bull for this coming 2019 and many experts say that it will happen again so do not lose our hope for this bull run.

[btcdevil]

As much i know predicting a bull / bear run can not be done , who ever is predicting is just a guess work and if it goes correct it is good , if you always trade in practical way then ithink even in 2019 we will bear trend for some months.

[naidray]

As much i know predicting a bull / bear run can not be done , who ever is predicting is just a guess work and if it goes correct it is good , if you always trade in practical way then ithink even in 2019 we will bear trend for some months.

I guess you are forgetting completely about technical analysis which involves lot of trading tools and strategies. Yes, you can predict the direction of market using technical tools even if you are unable to predict the exact price levels. But, OP here is stating about predicting an upcoming movement in small exchanges based on bitstamp and other major exchanges. It may be possible in some occasions and cannot be sure it will work for all 100% of times. Just like any other strategies.

Predicting the direction of a market is involved lots of criteria and factors. When everything will be meeting and satisfied then there will be chances for accurate predictions. But we cannot be sure that each and every parameter will be met all the times so that we can be sure about accurate prediction.

[Ucy]

Interesting question.
I don't know if the time difference is very noticeable. Change in Price seems to be simultaneous across exchange  maybe with slight difference.   
Perhaps you are looking for arbitrage trading opportunity?

You could monitor the price of Bitcoin on multiple exchanges at thesame time (with TabTrader) to see things for yourself.
 

Orderbook should kind of help keep the price from moving ahead of others.

[leowonderful]

It's pretty hard to predict patterns in crypto trading, and as a general rule, I usually only trade confirmed/complete patterns as trading without them is essentially just gambling. You're never going to be quickest to predict a bear or bull run, but what you can do is ride patterns that are already happening and make your profits there. It's worked for me so far in in these volatile markets, and it's generally not difficult to find such patterns.

[nydiacaskey01]

A bull run is being initiated by the market manipulators, and manipulation is designed to be unnoticed in any possible way. So, prediction remains the level of how you knew the risks from the very beginning you learned to trade. I dont know, but what you have suggested is very difficult to invistigate. I'd rather depend on the TA's as it helps me alot on following todays up and down trends

Nope its not initiated by manipulators. Like what happened last year, its not initiated by manipulators. There's always a reason why there's a bull run, there is something that will trigger a bull run. It's the market that will make the bull run again and complete the momentum to consider it as a bull run. Few days ago, price of BTC jumped 32% in 72 hours if the momentum continued and reached another ATH, that could have been a bull run.

[therhslv]

in my opinion the predictions of the bear / bull run only have a success percentage of 55%, because 45% is another factor that influences the big news, whether good or bad, it still affects, and is added with whales if they start playing their role

Actually i think its way less than that . Reading graph is just a guessing based on past actions , i would say by reading graph you can make odds on your favor by less than 10% , no more Maybe if we had marketcap of trillions on crypto then by reading graphs you had a chance of 55% , because currently its so hard to read / guess because of big volatility

[richminded]

Actually, no one can predict if next year there will be another bull run or bear market. However, we most expect in bull run which we can gain and regain income and losses. I expecting for another bull for this coming 2019 and many experts say that it will happen again so do not lose our hope for this bull run.

Despite of the dump market this year many investors are still believe that 2019 will deliver a good run to us and hoping that the bull will appear again. Predictions is not accurate, we can say whatever price we wanted to say but there is no assurance for that one, so its better to predict without any expectations.