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Author Topic: The markets are rigged  (Read 687 times)
jjjfff
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December 26, 2018, 02:32:02 PM
 #1

If you've read any stock market literature then you've likely heard of "The Random Walk" and similar texts.

Basically the idea is that the markets are chaotic. You know the old story of how air moved by a butterfly in Tokyo become a thunderstorm in Los Angeles?

It turns out markets are NOT chaotic at all. In fact, it's quite the contrary. The markets are rigged.

While ups and downs seem kind of random in the short term, in the long term you can see that markets are absolutely linear and predictable.

Have a look at this 30+ year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30.



Does anything strike you as odd in this image?

Note the red line I drew on the chart.

It doesn't matter what happens, the FED keeps printing money and the markets are ALWAYS rising linearly.

2008 subprime crisis, 1999 dotcom bubble? Doesn't matter. Right after these maket turbulences, the trend resumes because the FED simply prints more money.

Doesn't it seem strange to you that a "random" walk has such a linear trend over 30 years?

It'd be expected if this trend happened over a few weeks or months. But over 30 years? 3 decades of almost linear growth?

The crashes happened and bubbles burst, but the linear pattern returned to its trend. How?

How come major market turmoil didn't completely shift this long term trend?

It doesn't matter what happens, the US can print money using its power projection in the world. Every single time there was a crisis after abandoning the gold standard in the early 1970's, the FED simply printed more money and pumped the markets back artificially.

But shouldn't this cause inflation? Monetary inflation, yes. Price inflation? Well, here's the catch: they don't print this money for YOU! They print this money for bankers. That way you can't spend any of this money, but bankers bought more and more equities in the stock market.

Thus, the FED simply keeps printing money to keep the stock market growth linear. No matter what happens in the short term, in the long term the markets are completely controlled by the FED.

But you and others who put their money into savings are simply being robbed. Banks buy all the equities using their free printed money while you save up and work 9-5 for decades to build savings. It's a ponzi scheme, new blood, new generations keep working more and more and more to buy a fraction of what people could buy 30 years ago. Banks keep printing money and robbing 99.9% of the world's population who work for a little over a dozen people.

It's phony capitalism. The markets are rigged and 7 billion people on this planet pay the bill for a dozen people controlling the banks.


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December 26, 2018, 05:21:40 PM
Merited by Foxpup (2)
 #2

So many people claim that "the markets are rigged". Yet, they are unable to provide any kind of evidence, they can't show how the markets are rigged, and they can't show who is rigging the markets.

If you are going to claim that the markets are rigged, then I want to see some evidence so that I can agree or disagree. I'm not going to just take your word for it. Oh, and "everybody knows the markets are rigged" is not evidence.

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December 26, 2018, 09:52:33 PM
 #3

So many people claim that "the markets are rigged". Yet, they are unable to provide any kind of evidence, they can't show how the markets are rigged, and they can't show who is rigging the markets.

If you are going to claim that the markets are rigged, then I want to see some evidence so that I can agree or disagree. I'm not going to just take your word for it. Oh, and "everybody knows the markets are rigged" is not evidence.

I presented the linear trend in the chart. You can access this chart on investing.com I didn't make it up.

How can a random process have an underlying linear trend? Impossible.

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December 26, 2018, 11:22:38 PM
 #4

This is a very common thing, I am not too worried about this problem and I choose to remain silent and continue to monitor market conditions. there can't be a big event without anyone playing behind it.

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December 27, 2018, 05:36:56 AM
 #5

So many people claim that "the markets are rigged". Yet, they are unable to provide any kind of evidence, they can't show how the markets are rigged, and they can't show who is rigging the markets.

If you are going to claim that the markets are rigged, then I want to see some evidence so that I can agree or disagree. I'm not going to just take your word for it. Oh, and "everybody knows the markets are rigged" is not evidence.

Well it's up for anyone to speculate on since we don't have any way to tell whether a certain someone or group of people are manipulating the market because of crypto's anonymity. Though if you think about it another way, if you have enough resources to sway the market to your favor, wouldn't you do it? And there are such people with enough assets to do it.

 
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December 27, 2018, 05:52:22 AM
Merited by Foxpup (2)
 #6

Banks buy all the equities using their free printed money while you save up and work 9-5 for decades to build savings.
So in other words, it would be extremely smart to buy index funds with those savings.  Seems to me you're saying the markets are rigged in such a way that an average person can make money in stocks.

I assume that chart isn't adjusted for inflation.  Do you have data that shows what it would look like when the DJIA is adjusted for inflation?  

Also, I'd like to point out that the companies that comprise the DJIA can be added or deleted to make the average look better.  The list of DJIA corporations today looks a hell of a lot different than it did when the DJIA was created, and you can check this link to see what I'm talking about.  That doesn't mean the market is rigged, though, just that the indexes can be tweaked to buff them up.

Edit:  Just found this article, haven't read the whole thing yet, but it does have some interesting charts.  Looks like the 1989-present graph isn't quite as linear as OP presented it, but the explosion that happened around the end of the gold standard certainly does look real.

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December 27, 2018, 08:12:14 AM
 #7

But, we are still having a balanced system like balanced economical situations where if you hard work you will find your needed things. Governments are ready to give free money and all facilities to corporate and banks whereas they will not give free money to their citizen. Because, that will make them lazy which will be leading to collapse of entire economy.

For example, corporate are getting lots of benefits from government to set up a business, and then they will be providing job opportunity to common people based on that business. It is like they are giving opportunity for the people to prove their hard-working capabilities, those who are all finding chances to prove themselves with their hard work, getting their rewards. In this we cannot blame the government for giving all benefits for setting up that job opportunity.

Governments or banks may print money without having proper reserve for that. But, they should not distribute that money freely to their citizen. They may use that money for providing job opportunities for their citizen. This is the basic rule to keep the system intact. When all the people in a country will be getting all their needs without any big efforts then their economic system will collapse. This has been proved right with many countries'scenarios like they are simply printing money still they are able to manage it accordingly.

Markets and our economic systems are probably rigged but we cannot do anything about that because it needs to be like this otherwise it will lead to imbalances of systems.

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December 27, 2018, 08:13:34 AM
 #8

So many people claim that "the markets are rigged". Yet, they are unable to provide any kind of evidence, they can't show how the markets are rigged, and they can't show who is rigging the markets.

If you are going to claim that the markets are rigged, then I want to see some evidence so that I can agree or disagree. I'm not going to just take your word for it. Oh, and "everybody knows the markets are rigged" is not evidence.

I presented the linear trend in the chart. You can access this chart on investing.com I didn't make it up.

How can a random process have an underlying linear trend? Impossible.

Obviously, it is not as random or chaotic as you expect it to be. That doesn't mean it is "rigged". The weather has recognizable patterns and is even predictable to a small degree. Is it "rigged", too?

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December 27, 2018, 10:04:24 AM
 #9

Rigged is actually part of the game, as long as there is money involved, greedy people will find a using their power to rigged the market in their favor.
Being a trader, you should also have the mind of a gambler, it's similar in sports gambler where there is a fixed game, and that is rigged but if you were able to put your money at the right side, you won't complain.




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December 27, 2018, 11:18:04 AM
 #10

Rigged or manipulated it doesnt really matter, we are powerless really
to prove it with certainty. I dont know anything of worth about stock
Markets but I would have thought that the natural progression would
be an upwards trend. For me the important movements are the ones
above and below that red line.
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December 27, 2018, 12:22:12 PM
 #11

If you've read any stock market literature then you've likely heard of "The Random Walk" and similar texts.

Basically the idea is that the markets are chaotic. You know the old story of how air moved by a butterfly in Tokyo become a thunderstorm in Los Angeles?

It turns out markets are NOT chaotic at all. In fact, it's quite the contrary. The markets are rigged.

While ups and downs seem kind of random in the short term, in the long term you can see that markets are absolutely linear and predictable.

Have a look at this 30+ year chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average 30.



Does anything strike you as odd in this image?

Note the red line I drew on the chart.

It doesn't matter what happens, the FED keeps printing money and the markets are ALWAYS rising linearly.

2008 subprime crisis, 1999 dotcom bubble? Doesn't matter. Right after these maket turbulences, the trend resumes because the FED simply prints more money.

Doesn't it seem strange to you that a "random" walk has such a linear trend over 30 years?

It'd be expected if this trend happened over a few weeks or months. But over 30 years? 3 decades of almost linear growth?

The crashes happened and bubbles burst, but the linear pattern returned to its trend. How?

How come major market turmoil didn't completely shift this long term trend?

It doesn't matter what happens, the US can print money using its power projection in the world. Every single time there was a crisis after abandoning the gold standard in the early 1970's, the FED simply printed more money and pumped the markets back artificially.

But shouldn't this cause inflation? Monetary inflation, yes. Price inflation? Well, here's the catch: they don't print this money for YOU! They print this money for bankers. That way you can't spend any of this money, but bankers bought more and more equities in the stock market.

Thus, the FED simply keeps printing money to keep the stock market growth linear. No matter what happens in the short term, in the long term the markets are completely controlled by the FED.

But you and others who put their money into savings are simply being robbed. Banks buy all the equities using their free printed money while you save up and work 9-5 for decades to build savings. It's a ponzi scheme, new blood, new generations keep working more and more and more to buy a fraction of what people could buy 30 years ago. Banks keep printing money and robbing 99.9% of the world's population who work for a little over a dozen people.

It's phony capitalism. The markets are rigged and 7 billion people on this planet pay the bill for a dozen people controlling the banks.



It has to be like that because a lot of big people want to gain a lot of it. And anyone who knows how to play the game is at the higher chance of getting rich and when small fries only needs to follow their footsteps.
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December 27, 2018, 01:31:14 PM
 #12

If you've read any stock market literature then you've likely heard of "The Random Walk" and similar texts.

Basically the idea is that the markets are chaotic. You know the old story of how air moved by a butterfly in Tokyo become a thunderstorm in Los Angeles?


Chaotic and random are very different things. Randomness means that a result can not be predicted with certainty, chaotic means that the result is very hard to predict because of very complex relations.

Markets are obviously not random because humans are not random. But they exhibit chaotic behavior, especially on small scale, because there's a big number of people involved and it's impossible to predict their decisions at one given moment.

But in the long run markets are driven by fundamental factors, like in your example the American economy growth throughout the decades, so naturally the DJIA is growing too. Bitcoin is a new and successful technology, so it grew a lot since its inception. No need to seek some conspiracies to explain their price.

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December 27, 2018, 01:55:53 PM
 #13

If you've read any stock market literature then you've likely heard of "The Random Walk" and similar texts.

Basically the idea is that the markets are chaotic. You know the old story of how air moved by a butterfly in Tokyo become a thunderstorm in Los Angeles?


Chaotic and random are very different things. Randomness means that a result can not be predicted with certainty, chaotic means that the result is very hard to predict because of very complex relations.

Markets are obviously not random because humans are not random. But they exhibit chaotic behavior, especially on small scale, because there's a big number of people involved and it's impossible to predict their decisions at one given moment.

But in the long run markets are driven by fundamental factors, like in your example the American economy growth throughout the decades, so naturally the DJIA is growing too. Bitcoin is a new and successful technology, so it grew a lot since its inception. No need to seek some conspiracies to explain their price.


 We can take your above post as it is. Often time we been seing a lot of speculation about the market which manipulated by Whales or insider transaction could bring one prime stock to the grown..but we have no factual based on the said speculation. More often than that is just negative views against the market. If the US stock market goes down it can be because of the war trade with china.

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Indamuck
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December 27, 2018, 02:05:26 PM
 #14

The government has to continually pump the stock market as most people have their savings in stocks.  The country would be in chaos if it crashed drastically as most people would go broke over night.  Something is going to give though, I don't think the USD will continue to be the world currency within the next 5-10 years.
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December 27, 2018, 02:12:48 PM
 #15

Markets are kinda rigged but not in the way you think. The difference of why the line is always going up is that companies in those dow jones type calculations are always the best companies, so if a company is losing a lot of money and going down than the next company that makes profit takes its place and makes the chart go up, there are times when everything falls of course but the reason why its not just a straight line or why it keeps going up is that the best companies are in these calculations and that means they always have the most profitable going higher type of deals going on in them.

There is no "rigged" calculation, its just the way it has been forever and that is why it goes up higher. Of course the rigged part is that these companies are forced to make profits each quarter or the investors will take their money out and put it on the next big thing and companies do every accounting trick in their power to show profits they can to look like they are alright until bankruptcy hits them.

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December 27, 2018, 03:06:37 PM
 #16

Does anything strike you as odd in this image?

Note the red line I drew on the chart.
Indeed, it does strike me as very odd that you drew a straight line on a linear chart instead of a logarithmic one, thus implying that the Dow was negative prior to 1984 (for reference, it was not).

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December 27, 2018, 07:29:54 PM
 #17

The government has to continually pump the stock market as most people have their savings in stocks.  The country would be in chaos if it crashed drastically as most people would go broke over night.  Something is going to give though, I don't think the USD will continue to be the world currency within the next 5-10 years.

Sadly you're probably correct. Although what you describe in the first sentence is all but capitalism (governments pumping the stock market).

Does anything strike you as odd in this image?

Note the red line I drew on the chart.
Indeed, it does strike me as very odd that you drew a straight line on a linear chart instead of a logarithmic one, thus implying that the Dow was negative prior to 1984 (for reference, it was not).

I didn't intend to imply that. The reason I don't show prior to 1984 is because the investing.com chart only went so far.

This present day system began in 1970 IIRC, not on 1984.

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December 27, 2018, 07:32:49 PM
 #18

Indeed, it does strike me as very odd that you drew a straight line on a linear chart instead of a logarithmic one, thus implying that the Dow was negative prior to 1984 (for reference, it was not).
Yeah, and I'd also like to read a response from OP (or anyone) to the post I made in this thread pointing out that the chart is not inflation-adjusted--but meanwhile, OP has begun a new thread ranting about how the Fed is rigging the markets.  Makes me wonder if OP really wants a discussion on this or not. 

But hey, this is Economics, right?  The section that's almost as bad as Bitcoin Discussion, where very few people read posts.

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December 27, 2018, 07:37:59 PM
 #19

Indeed, it does strike me as very odd that you drew a straight line on a linear chart instead of a logarithmic one, thus implying that the Dow was negative prior to 1984 (for reference, it was not).
Yeah, and I'd also like to read a response from OP (or anyone) to the post I made in this thread pointing out that the chart is not inflation-adjusted--but meanwhile, OP has begun a new thread ranting about how the Fed is rigging the markets.  Makes me wonder if OP really wants a discussion on this or not.  

But hey, this is Economics, right?  The section that's almost as bad as Bitcoin Discussion, where very few people read posts.

Sorry if I didn't reply to your earlier question.

Adjusting the chart for inflation would only lower the slope of the linear trend. My point is not the % gain (the slope). It's about it being linear!

The whole point of this thread is to point out that the FED and the fractional reserve system simply manipulate the stock market at will to keep it a straight line.

What I mean by "the markets are rigged" is that it's not a random walk, it's not chaotic, it's none of these things. The markets are completely controlled by the FED as shown in the 30+ year trend. The FED's true mission is to keep that linear behavior on that chart. That's my point.

If you adjust every price on the composite index used for that chart (the Dow) for inflation, you'll get a lower slope, that's all. Will not change the point I tried to make.


EDITED: The reason I opened the other thread is because yesterday we saw the greatest pump EVER on US markets. And today we see a dump. So we have these two new facts.

This new information adds to the point I'm trying to make: the banks control the markets at will. There is 200+ trillion dollars out there printed by the FED (unpayable debt) that is used to do whatever they want to the markets. They can crash it, pump it, dump it, what ever.

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December 27, 2018, 07:51:45 PM
 #20

Yes, the rigging market is a sign that a breakout should be expected.  I could remember that in forex when we see rigging price we keep looking for the pin bar or morning star formations in other to be able to invest in a right to and good prices.
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