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Author Topic: NBA 2019-2020 betting  (Read 33682 times)
Harkorede
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February 17, 2019, 11:49:02 PM
 #361

Hey guys, I hope y'all are doing well and OP his taking his time off to come back after the All Stars Games with a bang!

I'm not a fan of over or under betting as far as the NBA is concerned, I prefer money line or point spread per quarter bet to over or under bets, I'll try my lock today in the Team Lebron vs Team Giannis match today,
I'll be going for 4 bets in total..

Team LeBron - 1 in first quarter @ 1.83
1st Quarter total points - Under 80 @ 1.87

Team LeBron - 2.5 in 1st Half @ 1.87
Total points - Over 310.5 @ 1.63

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February 18, 2019, 12:45:58 AM
 #362

Hey guys, I hope y'all are doing well and OP his taking his time off to come back after the All Stars Games with a bang!

I'm not a fan of over or under betting as far as the NBA is concerned, I prefer money line or point spread per quarter bet to over or under bets, I'll try my lock today in the Team Lebron vs Team Giannis match today,
I'll be going for 4 bets in total..

Team LeBron - 1 in first quarter @ 1.83
1st Quarter total points - Under 80 @ 1.87

Team LeBron - 2.5 in 1st Half @ 1.87
Total points - Over 310.5 @ 1.63


Good luck on your pick tonight mate, hoping you'll win them all.
You are good in quarter betting so I guess you will once again nail this one.
I'm gonna be watching this game and maybe I'll try to bet a little amount, just for fun.

Team Lebron here but I'm tempted to put on Giannis with the point spread, anyway good luck again.

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Harkorede
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February 18, 2019, 06:21:59 AM
 #363

Good luck on your pick tonight mate, hoping you'll win them all.
You are good in quarter betting so I guess you will once again nail this one.
I'm gonna be watching this game and maybe I'll try to bet a little amount, just for fun.

Team Lebron here but I'm tempted to put on Giannis with the point spread, anyway good luck again.

Thanks bud,
Not so good this time, I think, Lol. I could only win one the 4 bets, Team LeBron fell asleep in the first quarter but went ahead to win every other single quarter  Shocked
I just couldn't wait for the the all stars games to be over with already Smiley

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February 18, 2019, 06:34:43 AM
 #364

Good luck on your pick tonight mate, hoping you'll win them all.
You are good in quarter betting so I guess you will once again nail this one.
I'm gonna be watching this game and maybe I'll try to bet a little amount, just for fun.

Team Lebron here but I'm tempted to put on Giannis with the point spread, anyway good luck again.

Thanks bud,
Not so good this time, I think, Lol. I could only win one the 4 bets, Team LeBron fell asleep in the first quarter but went ahead to win every other single quarter  Shocked
I just couldn't wait for the the all stars games to be over with already Smiley
The first q and the first half bet loss due to a slow performance of Team Lebron.
They were able to come back in the 3rd quarter and it was easy for them to do it, though Lebron was not shooting well but Durant, Klay, and Lillard
all made a great contribution to win the game, better luck next time mate, will be back to the reality soon.

 
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February 18, 2019, 06:45:42 AM
Merited by Sanitough (1)
 #365


Total points - Over 310.5 @ 1.63


Wow, these are terrible, but simply terrible odds!
You realize you lost 37% of your stakes when you accepted 1.63 - when people like you accept these bets they turn gambling into a sucker's game, seriously ... how could you accept 1.63? That's just terrible ... even if it won - betting on low odds like this will annihilate your bankroll/deposits sooner than later ...

When you bet over/under you need to take 1.90 minimum, if not more ... and if you bookie doesn't have it - look for another one who does.

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February 18, 2019, 07:18:33 AM
 #366

~snip~
+1

Good point mate, if you can choose an odds of at least 2, you just need to maintain of at least 51% winning rate in order to be profitable in sports.

It's achievable only provided that you are using a fixed amount in betting, thus, bankroll management plays a vital rule for this to succeed.

 
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February 18, 2019, 07:40:52 AM
 #367


Total points - Over 310.5 @ 1.63


Wow, these are terrible, but simply terrible odds!
You realize you lost 37% of your stakes when you accepted 1.63 - when people like you accept these bets they turn gambling into a sucker's game, seriously ... how could you accept 1.63? That's just terrible ... even if it won - betting on low odds like this will annihilate your bankroll/deposits sooner than later ...

When you bet over/under you need to take 1.90 minimum, if not more ... and if you bookie doesn't have it - look for another one who does.

I think you are overreacting here. The Spread for even odds(1.91x) was 315 points. He is betting at lower odds to have a better chance to win the bet. First know what the spread is before reacting to the odds. The game ended with 342 points, so an easy win.

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February 18, 2019, 07:47:28 AM
 #368


I think you are overreacting here. The Spread for even odds(1.91x) was 315 points. He is betting at lower odds to have a better chance to win the bet. First know what the spread is before reacting to the odds. The game ended with 342 points, so an easy win.

The opening odds were 311, not 315.
I did look at the numbers many hours before it even started.
So I do know what the spread was, and just letting him know, regardless of what he bets on - it's better to get higher odds than risk it like this, especially in the NBA where teasers are mainly losers' bets.

The only way to profit "long term" is either - not to gamble at all - or - take only EVEN odds or 1.90 minimum, otherwise the bankroll is destined to get wiped out.

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February 18, 2019, 10:19:46 AM
Last edit: February 18, 2019, 10:33:48 AM by Harkorede
 #369

You realize you lost 37% of your stakes when you accepted 1.63 - when people like you accept these bets they turn gambling into a sucker's game, seriously ... how could you accept 1.63? That's just terrible ... even if it won - betting on low odds like this will annihilate your bankroll/deposits sooner than later ...

When you bet over/under you need to take 1.90 minimum, if not more ... and if you bookie doesn't have it - look for another one who does.


Do you mean there would have been a bookie that'd have offered that same over 310.5 ?!  As far as I can tell, as at the time I placed the bet that what was the the best I could get, I did check a couple of websites.

The only way to profit "long term" is either - not to gamble at all - or - take only EVEN odds or 1.90 minimum, otherwise the bankroll is destined to get wiped out.


I guess you're probably not as knowledgeable as I think or we just seem to have different perspectives about odds, why are the Odds there ? Isn't it about the likelihood of event to occurr ?!
You mean I'd have to take Odds of 1.9 or always regardless of my view about the outcome of an event simply because of my Bankroll ? Maybe I'm indeed terrible but I'd rather keep going for Odds of ~ 1.40 - ~ 1.70 when I think I have a relatively high chance of winning rather than taking higher odds with no chance I could win.




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February 18, 2019, 12:26:25 PM
 #370

Get-Paid is correct. If yall want to take profit long-term you have to up these odds.

1.4 - 1.7 simply not gonna cut it and good luck with "relatively high chance of winning".  Smiley

Here's an example of a 60% win rate with odds around 1.5 - 1.7. Let's say your bankroll is $200 and you place 10 single bets each $20.

Quote
1. $20 x 1.5 = $30 winner
2. $20 x 1.6 = $32 winner
3. $20 x 1.7 = $34 winner
4. $20 x 1.6 = $32 winner
5. $20 x 1.7 = $34 winner
6. $20 x 1.7 = $34 winner
7. $20 x 1.6 = $32 loser
8. $20 x 1.7 = $34 loser
9. $20 x 1.6 = $32 loser
10. $20 x 1.7 = $34 loser

Your 60% win rate sitting comfy $196.

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February 18, 2019, 12:50:29 PM
 #371

Isn't it about the likelihood of event to occurr ?!


No, it's not.
If you had believed the game would go UNDER you could have had UNDER 319 for 1.64:
https://www.oddsportal.com/basketball/usa/nba/team-lebron-team-giannis-xneZl3Je/#over-under;1;319.00;0

Does that mean that 1.64 increases the "likelihood of that event to occur"? No.

Sometimes games end near the line and "buying a point" might be worth it, but you can never know when it would happen and by placing 1.60 bets you are killing your bankroll.

Even taking UNDER 330 in the All Star game, in live ... would have been a losing bet ... the fact the initial line was 315 and you get live line of 330 doesn't necessarily mean it would be "under".

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February 18, 2019, 02:11:33 PM
 #372

Snip..

Agreed!
But what does 1.90 gives you if have win 50% of your bets ?
He's ideology his based or most likely profitable for someone with a fixed bankroll.
His idea from my perspective means taking higher risks for better payout.


Isn't it about the likelihood of event to occurr ?!


No, it's not.

Even taking UNDER 330 in the All Star game, in live ... would have been a losing bet ... the fact the initial line was 315 and you get live line of 330 doesn't necessarily mean it would be "under".

I'm not saying a low odd simply means or necessarily mean it would happen.

If it's not about likelihood why was the initial line drastically different from other NBA games, or why doesn't every NBA come with similar odds or line at 315 or there about ?

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February 19, 2019, 01:43:22 AM
 #373

Odds are created for a reason, they show different odds based on the winning percentage but only on the public perception.
Bookmakers are really smart in making odds and even if there are odds like 1.50 it still does not guarantee that we will win all the time, I know
people who gamble in sports all the time will understand that based on their experience.

Me, personally, I stopped taking low odds, I'd rather 2.00 over or will consider 1.90 because I don't need to win a lot to be profitable.
However, this still depends on our own perception, we are gamblers and we are responsible for our own decision.

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February 19, 2019, 03:19:01 AM
 #374

Odds are created for a reason, they show different odds based on the winning percentage but only on the public perception.
Bookmakers are really smart in making odds and even if there are odds like 1.50 it still does not guarantee that we will win all the time, I know
people who gamble in sports all the time will understand that based on their experience.

Me, personally, I stopped taking low odds, I'd rather 2.00 over or will consider 1.90 because I don't need to win a lot to be profitable.
However, this still depends on our own perception, we are gamblers and we are responsible for our own decision.

I agree with that buds, different gamblers have their own insight regarding to this matter, good example as it may, low odds never guarantee gamblers
to win, though some edge might show that's why bookmakers provide this and entic gamblers to play with it, site owners are very wise in regards with
selections of games, they well manage how to segregate betting odds.

That's the main reason why I'm tailing OP, as he have a same outlook regarding to this matter, it'll be for the gamblers to decide about high or low odds.
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February 19, 2019, 04:34:47 AM
 #375

Anyone with some plays for when the NBA resumes on THURSDAY?
I see MIL and GSW at home being possible options depending on the point spreads but both play well at home.

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February 19, 2019, 04:53:55 AM
 #376

Anyone with some plays for when the NBA resumes on THURSDAY?
I see MIL and GSW at home being possible options depending on the point spreads but both play well at home.


I'm looking forward to the OP's pick on this tho, I think both the 76ers and Rockets matches caught my attention more but as you've said, I'm looking forward to what the points spread will be available at.

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February 19, 2019, 05:07:30 AM
 #377

Anyone with some plays for when the NBA resumes on THURSDAY?
I see MIL and GSW at home being possible options depending on the point spreads but both play well at home.


I'm looking forward to the OP's pick on this tho, I think both the 76ers and Rockets matches caught my attention more but as you've said, I'm looking forward to what the points spread will be available at.

For awhile, let's stop thinking about NBA though.
I'm sure OP will be right on time, it's time to enjoy now as when it resumes we will start making money here again.
A friendly reminder, OP is on 2 winning streak, at this situation I would not hesitate to ride on his next pick.

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February 19, 2019, 05:29:27 AM
 #378

Anyone with some plays for when the NBA resumes on THURSDAY?
I see MIL and GSW at home being possible options depending on the point spreads but both play well at home.


Cavs Suns total right now (way early) is 219 pts.
Seems too much for these 2 teams who barely know how to score.

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February 19, 2019, 05:37:56 AM
 #379

Anyone with some plays for when the NBA resumes on THURSDAY?
I see MIL and GSW at home being possible options depending on the point spreads but both play well at home.


Cavs Suns total right now (way early) is 219 pts.
Seems too much for these 2 teams who barely know how to score.

I disagree, Based on the stats in their last 2 games, the average score is 225.5.
They are considered as the worst teams in the NBA now, and they can score of course, they just loss because of their lack of defense.
So this 2 teams playing against each other might easily hit the over, you can bet on OT as well if you like, it's possible that it will be a close game.




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February 19, 2019, 01:11:01 PM
 #380

I'm back again to check the thread and looking for stadus' picks again.

When you are going to give your picks again stadus? everyone is waiting for you here.

I'm looking forward to the OP's pick on this tho
Not just for that match but for all of these matches that he can predict. Stadus is online today and let's wait if he's going to give some picks that we can also follow.

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