Bitcoin Forum
September 23, 2019, 06:50:52 PM *
News: If you like a topic and you see an orange "bump" link, click it. More info.
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 »  All
  Print  
Author Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us?  (Read 5013 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (1 post by 1 user deleted.)
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 03, 2019, 01:11:45 PM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 12:04:52 AM by frodocooper
 #61

You can't tell the diff change in a day or even 3 days.
A single day of blocks it purely random noise.
A few days of blocks is still pretty random.
Even the 2016 block diff change is an estimate and not very reliable.

The difficulty calculations on ALL sites are ALL based on blocks found - and blocks found are random.

e.g. what is the chance that a day of blocks will be 5% faster than expected but the network hash rate hasn't changed at all:
expected = ~144
5% faster = ~151
So what's the chance of getting 151 blocks average 95% diff?
CDF[Erl] 151 0.95 gives: 0.274871 so it's not rare.

Day by day  is for action more then anything else.
long term charts from last March clearly show what has happened. Net work was flooded by bitmain's sales of the cheap s9's  till diff and price crashed.  Yes I know  prices were dropping  but bitmain simply fueled the fire by dumping s9's cheaply.

my day to day interest is more peaked then it used to be due to the many s9's on the market that can be switch from 9.5 th to 13.0 th in under 1 minute.

I run the trends a long time  when I see a trend about to happen.  I started the first of these 2 threads on oct 4 2018  which was the highest diff ever.

we are yet to reach that number.  But we all know  with better gear and a bounce in price we will go higher in diff.

I was of the opinion it may be very quick since s9's can go from 9.5 to 13.5 quickly.

below is a 13 month chart from bitcoinwisdom


I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
1569264652
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569264652

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569264652
Reply with quote  #2

1569264652
Report to moderator
1569264652
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569264652

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569264652
Reply with quote  #2

1569264652
Report to moderator
1569264652
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569264652

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569264652
Reply with quote  #2

1569264652
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1569264652
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569264652

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569264652
Reply with quote  #2

1569264652
Report to moderator
1569264652
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1569264652

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1569264652
Reply with quote  #2

1569264652
Report to moderator
Sundance_
Newbie
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 14
Merit: 6


View Profile
April 04, 2019, 11:23:38 AM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 11:39:15 AM by frodocooper
Merited by frodocooper (2), philipma1957 (1)
 #62

As I've read more interviews of execs & attended more talks/pitches in the mining industry I've found that quite a few public faces really don't know what they are doing. I imagine this is counterbalanced by all the competent miners that stay quiet, maybe not. I think a lot of dormant hash rate is the incompetent people who've switched off machines because of poor planning rather than those mining on the lower switch. This distinction is important because in the latter case (the case you mention) hash rate can go up 36% in a minute whereas in my projection it takes quite some time to get hooked back up when profitable.

Do you really think so many miners are on this lower hashrate setting? My thinking is backed by my somewhat researched opinion that the competent miners also have <5 cents & are the majority of the network & and so are still mostly chugging a way full hog, at this price/difficulty. The loss of hashrate is all in unplugged machines & not underjuiced one, I think.
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 04, 2019, 01:02:25 PM
Last edit: April 04, 2019, 11:12:09 PM by frodocooper
 #63

As I've read more interviews of execs & attended more talks/pitches in the mining industry I've found that quite a few public faces really don't know what they are doing. I imagine this is counterbalanced by all the competent miners that stay quiet, maybe not. I think a lot of dormant hash rate is the incompetent people who've switched off machines because of poor planning rather than those mining on the lower switch. This distinction is important because in the latter case (the case you mention) hash rate can go up 36% in a minute whereas in my projection it takes quite some time to get hooked back up when profitable.

Do you really think so many miners are on this lower hashrate setting? My thinking is backed by my somewhat researched opinion that the competent miners also have <5 cents & are the majority of the network & and so are still mostly chugging a way full hog, at this price/difficulty. The loss of hashrate is all in unplugged machines & not underjuiced one, I think.

Well  it will be easy to get this answer as coins are at 5038  and diff  has not moved much at all.  Which indicates you are correct.

case in point

Current Pace:   99.6980%  (1655 / 1660.01 expected, 5.01 behind)   < this is less after price jump
Current Difficulty:   6379265451411.053XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6360256655466 and 6360864417297
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2980% and -0.2885%< as is this
Previous Retarget:   March 23, 2019 at 8:24 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 9:23 PM  (in 2d 12h 18m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:25 PM  (in 2d 12h 20m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 59m 6s and 14d 1h 1m 3s

the above makes your post look very good.

it also is nice for me as a miner.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
stompix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190
Merit: 1138



View Profile
April 05, 2019, 02:44:18 PM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 12:20:12 AM by frodocooper
Merited by suchmoon (9), frodocooper (1)
 #64

Four days since the price jump and the hashrate estimates haven't moved an inch from before April 1st.

Quote
Latest Block:   570332  (4 minutes ago)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4484% and +0.4527%

This, in my opinion, means that:
- people who have enough energy available don't have spare equipment (previously cost prohibitive) to put it online
- the abandoned inefficient equipment from small miners, even with 20% revenue increase is still not attractive
- the number of s9 and other semi-efficient gear that has been put offline and can be turned back is insignificant compared to the gear online
- new and more efficient gear sales are down and not making a dent

I guess this is pretty logic but...what I don't understand is what has happened with that 8 exahash of mining power from the peak in October
It is safe to assume that close to 1/5 of the mining gear back then is still unprofitable to mine below 6k?

philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 05, 2019, 02:55:58 PM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 12:20:37 AM by frodocooper
 #65

Well  some guesses would be  large farms surrendered and gave up the ghost.

And many people at 10 cent power or higher  can't justify it.

at lowest braiins setting the s9 does 10000 at 810 watts which loses about 1 cent a day at 10 cent power.

The mighty m10 set to 21 th doing 1265 watts earns 1.03 a day at 10 cent power.
The s15 set to lowest power does 19th at 910 watts earns about 1.28 a day  at 10 cent power

So basically every miner over 10 cents is still out of the game.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 06, 2019, 10:18:39 PM
Last edit: April 07, 2019, 11:40:09 PM by frodocooper
 #66

12 blocks left

Latest Block:   570515  (13 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   100.0304%  (2004 / 2003.39 expected, 0.61 ahead)
Current Difficulty:   6379265451411.053XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6381419199609 and 6381419275946
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.0338% and +0.0338%
Previous Retarget:   March 23, 2019 at 8:24 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Today at 8:18 PM  (in 0d 1h 59m 57s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Today at 8:18 PM  (in 0d 1h 59m 57s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 13d 23h 53m 51s and 13d 23h 53m 51s

A shot at 0% nice.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2912
Merit: 1193


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
April 06, 2019, 10:37:59 PM
Last edit: April 06, 2019, 11:16:35 PM by kano
 #67

Well, it would be described as: the implementation uses only 2015 of the 2016 blocks per diff change to calculate the new diff.
Technically it's a bug (by satoshi), but it's the rule in effect since the start and would be a hard fork to change it, so it will probably never change.

Edit: https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/pow.cpp#L41

Edit2: an older version https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/v0.9.2rc2/src/main.cpp#L1260
that matches what appears to be the original code:
https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blame/5b721607b1057df4dfe97f80d235ed372312f398/main.cpp#L840

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
Discord support invite at https://kano.is/ Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 06, 2019, 10:47:57 PM
 #68

The good news is with 8 or 9 to go.

8 due to the bug   we are very close to 0%  So worst case is we smoke the last 8 in 15 minutes and do about +1%

Best case is we get some really long blocks 1 hour plus  and drop to -2%

Considering coins jumped close to 20 % 4100 to 5000  the last 2 weeks were very good to us miners.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1876
Merit: 1044


View Profile
April 07, 2019, 05:56:17 AM
 #69

It seems to suggest that equipment can't just be turned on so easily.
Steamtyme
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 770
Merit: 1192



View Profile WWW
April 07, 2019, 11:51:16 AM
Merited by stompix (1), frodocooper (1)
 #70

Four days since the price jump and the hashrate estimates haven't moved an inch from before April 1st.

Quote
Latest Block:   570332  (4 minutes ago)
Next Difficulty Change:   between +0.4484% and +0.4527%

This, in my opinion, means that:
- people who have enough energy available don't have spare equipment (previously cost prohibitive) to put it online
- the abandoned inefficient equipment from small miners, even with 20% revenue increase is still not attractive
- the number of s9 and other semi-efficient gear that has been put offline and can be turned back is insignificant compared to the gear online
- new and more efficient gear sales are down and not making a dent

I guess this is pretty logic but...what I don't understand is what has happened with that 8 exahash of mining power from the peak in October
It is safe to assume that close to 1/5 of the mining gear back then is still unprofitable to mine below 6k?

I've always assumed on the way up it would take us 2-3 Difficulty adjustments to feel the effects of a significant price increase. I think the difference between where we are now and where we were then is just that, we are on the way up right now. This has a couple of obstacles to overcome:

1 - A lot of the equipment probably needs to be set up again. I don't imagine many farms just left everything connected hoping to turn it back on. Especially with steadily improved gear having been available since October 2018
2- Do they still have the equipment. I've seen a lot of hardware up for sale usually in the 100's or 1000's of pieces. If no one bought it to make a go in very low cost power regions it is still likely palatalized in a warehouse.
3- Are they still operational. We have seen a few companies struggle or fold since January 2018. In the meantime, they aren't being replaced in the same regions at the same rates so these spaces just might not exist at the moment.

Coming into the peak hashrate we were also still holding steady above 6k USD. So some of these locations may have been holding off at pulling the pin in operations. Especially with the odd spike showing promise the price might stabilize there. It obviously didn't forcing some tough decisions.

Even without the price movement the new hardware being released is going to push the network hashrate and difficulty up past that peak hashrate. Probably by mid September maybe into October, just depends on how much hardware is released each batch.

TheYankeesWin!
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 445
Merit: 257


View Profile
April 07, 2019, 01:06:41 PM
Last edit: April 07, 2019, 11:42:37 PM by frodocooper
 #71

What is really interesting is the numbers for the first 12 hours of this jump.
We are down by more then 6%.

Latest Block:   570601  (16 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   92.0153%  (74 / 80.42 expected, 6.42 behind) <<< Look at this early number!
Current Difficulty:   6393023717201.863XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5898815997270 and 6354656244553
Next Difficulty Change:   between -7.7304% and -0.6001%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 7:41 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 20, 2019 at 9:47 PM  (in 13d 12h 41m 51s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 22, 2019 at 12:50 AM  (in 14d 15h 45m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 2h 6m 4s and 15d 5h 9m 24s
philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 07, 2019, 01:57:33 PM
Last edit: April 07, 2019, 11:43:27 PM by frodocooper
 #72

@ yankees it is an amazing number.  It is early but it looks like a large farm has shut down.

Latest Block:   570615  (28 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   85.5688%  (88 / 102.84 expected, 14.84 behind)  <<< this is a 14.4% hash drop!
Current Difficulty:   6393023717201.863XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 5482247370787 and 6303594403213
Next Difficulty Change:   between -14.2464% and -1.3989%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 7:41 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   April 21, 2019 at 12:31 AM  (in 13d 11h 41m 56s)
Next Retarget (latest):   April 23, 2019 at 4:21 AM  (in 15d 15h 31m 35s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 50m 20s and 16d 8h 40m 0s

This drop is too big!

Well we are only into this jump about 16 hours.

But  a 20 % rise in coin price followed by a 0% diff then -15% diff drop is too good to be true.

Something is up.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
mikeywith
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 532
Merit: 1214


be constructive or S.T.F.U


View Profile
April 08, 2019, 01:57:33 AM
 #73

rainy season (monsoons) in china is about there, April and May should have some spikes in difficulty, hydroelectricity  rates are dirt cheap in a few provinces in china now about 0.1 rmb per kwh that's less than 1.5 cents so i think some old gears might start kicking in.

qctechno_isback
Member
**
Offline Offline

Activity: 90
Merit: 14


View Profile
April 10, 2019, 12:19:28 AM
 #74

China news : https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cryptocurrency/china-says-it-wants-to-eliminate-bitcoin-mining-idUSKCN1RL0C4

Maybe FUD, not the first time BTC have been banned
stompix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1190
Merit: 1138



View Profile
April 10, 2019, 09:15:58 AM
Last edit: April 10, 2019, 10:13:37 AM by frodocooper
 #75


Partially correct because we still have to see China actually banning bitcoin Tongue.

They have somewhat banned exchanges, they might ban businesses that are focused on mining as I doubt they will go after home users but they will not ban usage. Not at the pace, they have shown n the last years.

Also, NYT strikes again...
China, a Major Bitcoin Source, Considers Moving Against It
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/09/business/bitcoin-china-ban.html

The article sounds like we might see a cut in BTC production Tongue.

But still, the difficulty doesn't seem to care about anything, not the price, nor the "ban".

Latest Block:   571009  (15 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.4968%  (482 / 489.36 expected, 7.36 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6393023717201.863XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6299774335500 and 6353430246773
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4586% and -0.6193%

1% is less than some serious luck can change the prediction.

NotFuzzyWarm
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1932
Merit: 1327


Evil beware: We have waffles!


View Profile
April 12, 2019, 02:14:35 AM
Last edit: April 12, 2019, 07:18:18 AM by NotFuzzyWarm
Merited by frodocooper (1)
 #76

As always, FUD folks seem to be ignoring what is actually being said and instead focus on their opinion of what is said.

The China's National Development and Reform Commission has NOT said BTC could be banned. What they said is, "If the move is approved, local governments in China will be prohibited from supporting makers of Bitcoin and other digital currencies through subsidies or other benefits."

Not giving tax breaks or subsidies is very different from banning something.

For bitcoin to succeed the community must police itself - Joshua Zipkin aka Joshua Alexander leaked AMT A1 miner skype chats
How a miner mfgr SHOULD operate: HaggsFIN trip to Canaan My info useful? Donations welcome! 1Fuzzyk398kDWVjuC5qPX5v6CjSkvbgAbd
-Support Sidehacks miner development. Donations to:   1BURGERAXHH6Yi6LRybRJK7ybEm5m5HwTr
windjc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1876
Merit: 1044


View Profile
April 12, 2019, 06:34:00 AM
 #77

As always, FUD folks seem to be ignoring what is actually being said and instead focus on their opinion of what is said.

The China's National Development and Reform Commission has NOT said BTC could be banned. What they said is, "If the move is approved, local governments in China will be prohibited from supporting makers of Bitcoin and other digital currencies through subsidies or other benefits."

Not giving tax breaks or subsidies is very different from banning something.

Thanks for bringing a touch of sanity to the discussion. As someone that has seen China ban bitcoin 54958 times since 2012, I always know its a fake story. But rarely do I get to see the real story.
Steamtyme
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 770
Merit: 1192



View Profile WWW
April 12, 2019, 01:30:42 PM
 #78

I'm not sure how ownership of the powerplants is handled in China. It would be interesting if this extended to power costs. It wouldn't be a sweeping change but might eliminate the option of running some less efficient gear.

It would be interesting to know if it was common practice to provide things like tax breaks for farms, that would also be eliminated.

philipma1957
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 1894



View Profile
April 12, 2019, 02:24:30 PM
 #79

I'm not sure how ownership of the powerplants is handled in China. It would be interesting if this extended to power costs. It wouldn't be a sweeping change but might eliminate the option of running some less efficient gear.

It would be interesting to know if it was common practice to provide things like tax breaks for farms, that would also be eliminated.

Charge them 6 cents a kwatt Grin

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
kano
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2912
Merit: 1193


Linux since 1997 RedHat 4


View Profile
April 13, 2019, 12:46:19 AM
 #80

Meh, I don't get the reason for all this mostly off topic discussion - the only on topic part of it is the effect it *might* have on diff - which at this point is a completely unknown factor and no discussion will make any roadway into that unless something does actually change in China - which is pretty unlikely given the history of such FUD discussions where it has never really had any effect in the past.

But you get people rampaging on the forums when the people in the US have to pay more for miners due to a tax.
But then you get people saying how they want it to be harder for people in China to mine ... actually sounds pretty much full on racists to me.

Pool: https://kano.is Here on Bitcointalk: Forum BTC: 1KanoPb8cKYqNrswjaA8cRDk4FAS9eDMLU
Discord support invite at https://kano.is/ Majority developer of the ckpool code
Help keep Bitcoin secure by mining on pools with full block verification on all blocks - and NO empty blocks!
Pages: « 1 2 3 [4] 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 »  All
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!