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Author Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us?  (Read 1717 times)
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philipma1957
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April 13, 2019, 01:59:26 AM
Last edit: April 13, 2019, 02:37:48 AM by frodocooper
 #81

Europe long suffered vat on miners, 17%
USA got cheap no tax for years now has very high tax 27.6%.
China has  good power cost and no high tax on gear. Plus they make the gear and shipping cost is low.

China still has a good edge to mine.

I actually think the high USA tax and the High Europe Tax slow down hash rate growth.  I would have ordered more m10's 2 or 3 at a time  vs 1 at a time.
Many in the states would have done the same.
Many in Europe would have done the same.

I think it is an economical uneven playing field that makes for the complaining.

But in terms of growth of mining trump tax started mining  growth shrank.

The correlation is almost a perfect match.

trump tax in sept 2018
growth drop in oct 2018

The best example is 15 used s9s with power supplies = 3000

Set with braiins they can do 10.05 th and 815 watts.

So 15 do 150th and 12.3kwatts

While 3 new s17 cost 9k due to trump tax in USA.

They do 150th. And use 7.0 kwatts

So you are 6k in the hole. To save 5.3 kwatts.

That is about 3800 kwatts a month or 46000kwatts a year at 5 cent power I save 2300 in power

Even if I am doing 10 cent power I save 4600 but I spent 6k. Would have been 4.5k with no trump tax.

So any large USA player is not going to rush to buy the newer gear. They will seek cheap power and cheap s9 gear.

I would argue that trump tax has really been a huge factor preventing growth.

May be the best for,all of us that it still stays at 27.6%.

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April 13, 2019, 06:25:59 AM
Last edit: April 13, 2019, 10:53:40 AM by frodocooper
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 #82

Europe long suffered vat on miners, 17%...

Actually for most of Europe it has been and still is at or above 20%  Angry



But it has played a major part in why it is hard to make it mining in the EU. That and the high electricity costs.

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April 13, 2019, 11:17:47 AM
 #83

Actually for most of Europe it has been and still is at or above 20%  Angry

There are ways to avoid paying high import taxes in Europe Smiley
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April 13, 2019, 11:32:51 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2019, 12:08:28 AM by frodocooper
 #84

There are ways to avoid paying high import taxes in Europe Smiley

That are illegal.

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April 13, 2019, 11:50:43 AM
Last edit: April 16, 2019, 12:08:48 AM by frodocooper
 #85

There are ways to avoid paying high import taxes in Europe Smiley

And as Kano said, all are illegal which is why your more detailed post was deleted by the mods.

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April 13, 2019, 03:36:59 PM
Last edit: April 16, 2019, 12:09:03 AM by frodocooper
 #86

That are illegal.

And as Kano said, all are illegal which is why your more detailed post was deleted by the mods.

Got it, sorry for that. I was just explaining it for educational purposes, but learned the lesson, thanks!
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April 13, 2019, 03:56:56 PM
Last edit: April 16, 2019, 12:09:29 AM by frodocooper
 #87

Got it, sorry for that. I was just explaining it for educational purposes, but learned the lesson, thanks!

Don't worry, but some things can not be spelled out as it would leave the forum vulnerable to action against it.

I have had more then one person tell me they  want to avoid trump tax  of 27.6%  by any means  possible.
I tell them it is not worth the risk as it can be found out far too easily. Fines and confiscation would make it a mess.

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April 15, 2019, 09:57:53 PM
 #88

Anybody else notice that bitcoinwisdom appears to be "stuck" again? It's last recorded difficulty change was supposedly March 24th. I am sure that's "stale" or we are looking at a huge drop in difficulty coming up.
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April 15, 2019, 10:28:28 PM
 #89

Anybody else notice that bitcoinwisdom appears to be "stuck" again? It's last recorded difficulty change was supposedly March 24th. I am sure that's "stale" or we are looking at a huge drop in difficulty coming up.

Yep.  Using http://bitcoin-difficulty.com/ until it comes back online.

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philipma1957
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April 15, 2019, 11:05:21 PM
Last edit: April 16, 2019, 12:10:10 AM by frodocooper
 #90

I switched to diff.cryptothis.com about April 4

I think bitcoinwisdom stopped charts about March 26 or 27

Well  it will be easy to get this answer as coins are at 5038  and diff  has not moved much at all.  Which indicates you are correct.

case in point

Current Pace:   99.6980%  (1655 / 1660.01 expected, 5.01 behind)   < this is less after price jump
Current Difficulty:   6379265451411.053XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6360256655466 and 6360864417297
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.2980% and -0.2885%< as is this
Previous Retarget:   March 23, 2019 at 8:24 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Saturday at 9:23 PM  (in 2d 12h 18m 58s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Saturday at 9:25 PM  (in 2d 12h 20m 56s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 0h 59m 6s and 14d 1h 1m 3s

the above makes your post look very good.

it also is nice for me as a miner.

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April 17, 2019, 10:25:39 PM
Last edit: April 18, 2019, 04:09:57 AM by frodocooper
 #91

Numbers are slowing down dropping just a little bit

Latest Block:   572081  (4 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   98.5847%  (1554 / 1576.31 expected, 22.31 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6393023717201.863XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6303429245520 and 6308071986272
Next Difficulty Change:   between -1.4014% and -1.3288%
Previous Retarget:   April 6, 2019 at 7:41 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 12:15 AM  (in 3d 5h 51m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 12:30 AM  (in 3d 6h 6m 19s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 4h 34m 13s and 14d 4h 49m 25s
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April 18, 2019, 01:48:53 AM
Last edit: Today at 01:23:54 AM by frodocooper
 #92

Next Retarget (earliest):   Sunday at 12:15 AM  (in 3d 5h 51m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Sunday at 12:30 AM  (in 3d 6h 6m 19s)

Heh, there's a > 22% chance of that being wrong ... yeah most sites aren't very accurate ...

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April 18, 2019, 06:13:00 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:24:14 AM by frodocooper
 #93

Does www.bitcoinwisdom.io have charts?
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April 19, 2019, 09:24:25 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:25:20 AM by frodocooper
 #94

Does www.bitcoinwisdom.io have charts?

they have price charts but no difficulty chart and no profit calculators that I can find.



about 165 blocks to go

still negative

Latest Block:   572378  (10 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   99.6142%  (1851 / 1858.17 expected, 7.17 behind)
Current Difficulty:   6393023717201.863XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6369121978353 and 6369281492959
Next Difficulty Change:   between -0.3739% and -0.3714%

Previous Retarget:   April 6, 2019 at 7:41 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Tomorrow at 8:59 PM  (in 1d 3h 35m 52s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Tomorrow at 8:59 PM  (in 1d 3h 36m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 1h 17m 32s and 14d 1h 18m 4s

I will take 2 more weeks of the same diff Grin

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April 19, 2019, 10:49:01 PM
 #95

btc.com also has it as a small drop tomorrow.

Best guess it's going to be about the same +/- 1% for the next one also.
With it finally being warmer here in the US I think a lot of "space heaters" are getting shut off.

I had been running an R4 at night in the main room of the condo up until last week. That's off.
The T9s in the warehouse have run for a few hours here and there in the AM to take the chill out.

If I am doing it that way I would have to assume others are too. So even though the more efficient gear is showing up the older stuff is shutting down.

I started another thread this morning about 110V mining slowly going away too. That will probably take away some of the small home / hobby miners over the next few months.
Yes it was pointed out to me that the A1041 can be powered by 110V but most of the others cant.

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April 19, 2019, 11:05:59 PM
 #96

That's promising.  Still most of this nex gen gear hasn't shipped out, or has been small batches. What are we 3 weeks away from the S17 from batch 1 and 2 shipping out?

I am kind of curious though how many large farms upgraded to say an S15 series or something comparable and aren't eager to update again. It would be nice to have some idea of how many units sell in each release by any company.

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April 20, 2019, 12:40:04 AM
Last edit: Today at 01:26:36 AM by frodocooper
 #97

If you are big 1000 s9's  and at

4 cents  the s9 set to 9500gh and 780 watts  earns  60 cents a day

actually more viabtc is paying at 102% with no variance

If I had 1000 s9's set to 13000 gh  and 1200 watts

they earn 71.65 cents a day actually more at viabtc

so turning all those s9's down to the low setting saves 420 x 1000 = 420000 watts

it lets you buy  420000/2800 = 150 s17's  

and you have 1000 x 9.5 th or 9.5 ph  plus 52 th x 150 =  7.8 ph  that is a net of  17.3 ph  with same power footprint

and you did 13 th x 1000 =  13 ph

so just a partial upgrade and you move from 13 ph to 17.3 ph with same power foot print

so if ½ the network is at 4 cents  17.3/13 =  33 percent jump x ½ =  16.5%  jump is possible  in the next 3 months.

That is with a stable price.

I would think shipping will start on monday the day after easter for the s17's.

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April 20, 2019, 12:33:58 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:26:51 AM by frodocooper
 #98

It is still a good number about -0.9%  with 85 blocks to go.  

Has anyone received an s17 ship notice?  Bitmain has April 20 to April 30 as ship date for the s17's that sold out.  This would show up in the next jump if shipped on time. So if Phil is correct with the 16.5%  difficulty move coming over next 3 months next jump should show us something. I think  he is wrong and we will do more like +25%  in May, June, and July maybe more like 30% if you put in August.
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April 20, 2019, 12:55:28 PM
Last edit: Today at 01:27:34 AM by frodocooper
 #99

Here we are today
Note screen shots are from blockchain.com



our all time peak is below



We will pass this peak in the summer.

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April 20, 2019, 05:25:53 PM
 #100

So this mornings been a little weird. We are looking at -2 ish, according to fork.lol

When I was checking the Network hashrate, about 1/3 appears to have dropped off in the last couple of hours. Looks like similar dips happened April 14th and 13th. It'll be a day or so before we get a better picture of it, I just find it weird to see such drastic dips occur.

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