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Author Topic: Well the 2018 btc diff jumps are over so what will 2019 bring us?  (Read 8160 times)
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November 26, 2019, 04:42:45 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2019, 02:53:47 AM by frodocooper
Merited by philipma1957 (2), frodocooper (2)
 #501

Can you share that spreadsheet?

It's a bit of a mess, but here it is.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/isoxgejptkopbkw/Mining_Calcs.xlsx?dl=0
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November 26, 2019, 05:04:49 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2019, 02:54:06 AM by frodocooper
Merited by philipma1957 (2)
 #502

I will send you some merit. In a  bit from main account.
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November 26, 2019, 05:47:57 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2019, 02:54:41 AM by frodocooper
 #503

Sending the gear back to China is not an option for me, i have to take full responsibility for whatever happens , but I still give it a try i guess.

phill look at this

https://i.imgur.com/yLF9J1u.jpg

The weekly candle closed last night, you see those wicks on the 20 moving average? it simply implies that there is a ton of hashrate coming online whenever we go to that level, not only that,  the candle closed above the 5 moving average, this shows that more gears will be coming online, I highly doubt the -2% showing on diff.cryptothis.com unless price falls back and stays around the 6k region before the next adjustment, the chart also suggests that in 2-3 weeks we will go to a new ATH as far as the network hashrate is concerned, and that will after the following adjustment.

the price chart looks the exact opposite tho, this could help keep the hashrate flat for a while, but not enough to bring it down IMO.

Yarrrrrr Matey, in the hull of every sunken ship is a room full of charts.....Arrrrr.
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November 26, 2019, 06:11:34 PM
Last edit: November 27, 2019, 02:55:13 AM by frodocooper
 #504

Yarrrrrr Matey, in the hull of every sunken ship is a room full of charts.....Arrrrr.

I will have a bit of that  rum you are drinking. Roll Eyes

I am of the opinion  moores law is past  we won't  2x computing power  every 2 years. (wtf do I know a guess is as good)

I also think  all of cryptocurrency is at a turning point  this ½ ing is very important due to the reward to tx fee  ratio change.

there was a time we did 50 btc to 0.05   that is 1000 to 1 ratio.

now we will do  6.25 to 1  this is  an important  change

click and see for the last 90 days we did from .5 to 1.5 for most days

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees.html#3m

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 26, 2019, 08:11:49 PM
 #505

we want low price low hasrate so when price goes up we rich. So please Mikey. Make the charts work in our favor!

It's easy , I will  turn off my 800 megawat farm , and you sell your 500,000 BTC and your wish will come true in no time  Roll Eyes

I am of the opinion  moores law is past  we won't  2x computing power  every 2 years. (wtf do I know a guess is as good)

True, Moore is a bit of a jerk  Shocked , in fact 2x is past already, also mining related stuff are a bit different than the average computing thing, if you take S9 and S17 and run Moore's law on it, the 2x will not apply , but this is not what the law is all about, the main point is that technology improvement can only go to one direction, which is UP , slow or fast is what we can find out when the time has passed.

My guess is, Bitmain are already working on a beast for post halving period, let's chill and find out.

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November 27, 2019, 04:31:09 AM
 #506

still dropping down to -5%

but it is early.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 27, 2019, 12:48:18 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 10:54:16 AM by frodocooper
 #507

This early in the Epoch, the ranges are fairly wide. -5 / -3 % range est. Of course this will tighten up as we approach the end. My observations are that these early ranges and %'s are subject to dramatic changes. Which, stands to reason as the greater weight of the aggregate of solved Blocks smooths out the Delta of the wave.

$6,100 BTC is the new $3,100 BTC.
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November 27, 2019, 01:27:11 PM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 10:55:35 AM by frodocooper
Merited by stompix (1)
 #508

Latest Block:   605594  (7 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   94.3849%  (795 / 842.30 expected, 47.3 behind)

Current Difficulty:   12973235968799.78XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12261901616952 and 12513586739983

Next Difficulty Change:   between -5.4831% and -3.5431%

Previous Retarget:   last Thursday at 11:57 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 6, 2019 at 12:36 AM  (in 8d 16h 16m 27s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 6, 2019 at 7:56 AM  (in 8d 23h 36m 23s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 12h 39m 24s and 14d 19h 59m 21s

price is around 7200  It would be nice to see a drop to a diff of 12.2 or 12.3

hash rate for last year

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#1y

hash rate for last 2 years

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html#2y

have no close comparison to all time chart.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

but we still went up just not at a crazy mad dog pace.  Those days of diff and hash moving 2x 3x  in a year will not be as often.

2009 to 2010     12 m    to 10 m         no increase just too small to work the numbers
2010 to 2011     10 m    to 125g        1250x  increase due to adoption and gpus
2011 to 2012     125g    to  8.9th       71x  increase
2012 to 2013     8.9th    to 21.16th    2.377x increase   small increase as not real tech boost
2013 to 2014     21.16th to 11.83ph   559x increase    due to asics  and oct-nov bull run
2014 to 2015     11.83p to   310 p      26.2x increase   due to better asics

2015 to 2016     310 p    to 822p         2.65x increase
2016 to 2017     822p    to  2536p       3.08x increase
2017 to 2018     2.536e to  14.32e      5.64x increase
2018 to 2019    14.32e to   40.51e      2.62x increase
2019 to 2020    40.51e to    100?          2.468 ? increase

all this is from working this hashrate chart info https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html

note I separate    2009 to 2015 from  2015 to 2020

since factors of 10x in a year don't happen from 2015 on.

Yeah hash rate and diff can move up  and do trend up  overall from 2009 to 2020

but my gut tells me

that 2009 to 2015   over  2,989,573,925 to 1 hashrate increase
that 2015 to 2020   over           297 to 1  hashrate increase

translates  to   2020 to 2025       under 20 to 1 hash rate increase

with possible years of negative hashrate tossed in

So I do think mikeywith is partially correct that in the long run diff moves upwards

I am just not so sure  that  we continue the pace we did  in 2015 to 2020  which is about 3.12x a year

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 27, 2019, 05:30:29 PM
 #509

but my gut tells me

 that 2009 to 2015   over  2,989,573,925 to 1 hashrate increase
 that 2015 to 2020   over           297 to 1  hashrate increase

translates  to   2020 to 2025       under 20 to 1 hash rate increase  

with possible years of negative hashrate tossed in

I would not say as low as 20 but not too much over 50.

In my opinion that would come from
a) small gain in efficiency of miners (2/3)
b) the price will be the mule for this bringing in a probable x5 to x10
c) there is still the small gap that makes mining profitable even now, so I assume even with no price increase and no efficiency there is still room.
Last October we were doing 60exa with older gear at 3k, we're at 7k and barely touch 100exa with far better gear.

I see that bitmain is dumping gear again, s9 at 100$? how much more of this they have in stock?
I have a constant itch telling me to get one just for fun

True, Moore is a bit of a jerk  Shocked

I'm still waiting for my 40tb drive that was supposed to be available in 2016  Grin

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November 28, 2019, 01:31:20 AM
 #510

FWIW I think Moore's right . The likes Intel and bitmain just test that extra time. I'm sure bitmain has 200TH miners running 3000 watts right now.
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November 28, 2019, 02:33:25 AM
Last edit: November 28, 2019, 10:57:33 AM by frodocooper
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)
 #511

FWIW I think Moore's right . The likes Intel and bitmain just test that extra time. I'm sure bitmain has 200TH miners running 3000 watts right now.

Pipe dream  and I hate them. But I look at the gasoline engine  yeah you can fuck with it.  Make it somewhat better but at a certain point  you get to 97 %  of what it can do.

then the law of diminishing returns come into play.

If I were to bet on moore's law vs the law of diminishing returns I am betting against moore's law

... Moore's law is an observation and projection of a historical trend. It is an empirical relationship and not a physical or natural law. Although the rate held steady from 1975 until around 2012, the rate was faster during the first decade. In general, it is not logically sound to extrapolate from the historical growth rate into the indefinite future. For example, the 2010 update to the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors predicted that growth would slow around 2013,[22] and in 2015, Gordon Moore foresaw that the rate of progress would reach saturation: "I see Moore's law dying here in the next decade or so."

... The law of diminishing returns is a fundamental principle of economics.[1] It plays a central role in production theory.[3]

My predictions  on diff + hashrate  now lean towards " the law of diminishing returns" no longer to "moore's law"

it is why I broke up hashrate

in the 2009-2015 section and the 2015 to 2020 section

next section is the 2020 - 2025  and it will be less the 2015-2020

2,989,573,925 to 1
297 to 1

20 to 1 is my guess  from 2020 to 2025  with at least 1 negative year in diff/hashrate  due to moore's law shifting into the law of diminishing returns

this is good for a long term miner as the arms(asics) race will lessen.
this is bad for a builder of gear as sales will change.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 28, 2019, 03:38:36 AM
 #512

I could argue, it's the same thing as a to b. Adding variables creates theory.  but simple game theory indicates to me these days the only real winners are asic manufacturers. We are all chumps for the time being. I think that if you dont have the latest and greatest equipment and list the equipment as soon as you hit ROI  your out of the game.  (You have a dreamy situation)

Personally I think we are nearing floor I'm gonna acquire until we peak.  (My bet April will bring ATH)  peak diff, rock bottom prices? If history repeats when people are unplugging it's time to buy...buy btc , buy asics, buy buy buy!
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November 28, 2019, 10:56:39 PM
 #513

FWIW I think Moore's right . The likes Intel and bitmain just test that extra time. I'm sure bitmain has 200TH miners running 3000 watts right now.

I need to smoke a whole farm of weed to be remotely close to believing your "assumption" Grin

in fact many electronic manufacturers think that Moore's law is nothing but history and that includes Nvidia CEO , the x2 every 2 years is in fact dead, and it's gets harder and harder as they move on, this indeed does not completely negate the obvious truth that there will always be enough room for improvement, but still  15w per th as you imagine is simply impossible for the time being.

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November 29, 2019, 02:50:25 AM
Last edit: November 30, 2019, 03:01:35 AM by frodocooper
 #514

Not sure it ever reaches 15 watts maybe maybe not.

But if  the s17 pro can do 36 watts at 40th and mine does this.  It can tweak to 30 watts.  This number buries everyone there is.  Sooo the economic need for a better s17 pro does not exist.

The s9 came out in april 2016  it did 110 watts  a th.  it can do 90 watts a th.

We did not see better miners on the s9 in public until the dragonmint t1  which  could do 85 watts in spring of 2018.

So 2 years to better the s9.  And those dragonmint miners broke often.  In summer of 2018  m10 and t2 24t came out they were better then the s9 and pretty durable.

So bitmain got the s-11 the s15 in fall of 2018 and the killer the s17 pro in spring of  2019.

I do not look to see a better s17 pro  until  inno or whatsminer or avalon put out something that clearly beats the s17 pro.

BTW just got back from my yearly 200 mile round trip thanksgiving dinner trip  lots of food and I am home safe and sound.

Happy Thanksgiving to any and all that celebrate it.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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November 29, 2019, 04:45:44 PM
 #515


Both inno and MicroBT are a long way behind bitmain, i don't think bitmain will ever have to rush into making a much more efficient gear from where they already at with S17 pro , for the next couple months i guess their primary goal would be reducing the manufacturing cost for these gears while all other manufacturers continue to get beaten up, so to sum up  200th on 3000w is just wishful thinking.

Happy Thanksgiving phill, go get yourself some tasty food.

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December 06, 2019, 03:49:20 PM
Last edit: December 07, 2019, 03:17:38 AM by frodocooper
 #516

food was good, trip was lite traffic very surprised at that.

diff is still neg. and we have about six days to go.

price went to 7700.

Diff is as follows

Latest Block:   606086  (17 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.4643%  (1287 / 1334.17 expected, 47.17 behind)

Current Difficulty:   12973235968799.78XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12525588969767 and 12582359565660
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.4505% and -3.0129%
Previous Retarget:   November 21, 2019 at 11:57 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:39 PM  (in 5d 4h 20m 34s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Friday at 12:16 AM  (in 5d 5h 57m 11s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 10h 42m 18s and 14d 12h 18m 55s

Latest Block:   606257  (3 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   96.5750%  (1458 / 1509.71 expected, 51.71 behind)

Current Difficulty:   12973235968799.78XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12538672830227 and 12570932461779
Next Difficulty Change:   between -3.3497% and -3.1010%
Previous Retarget:   November 21, 2019 at 11:57 AM
Next Retarget (earliest):   Thursday at 10:57 PM  (in 3d 23h 23m 7s)
Next Retarget (latest):   Thursday at 11:52 PM  (in 4d 0h 17m 53s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 11h 0m 11s and 14d 11h 54m 58s

Still hanging in there around -3%

we are at 7340 usd.

90 blocks to go.and we are -1%. price is 7330 usd.

so an early Christmas present 🎁 for us miners.

we jumped  from 12973235968799.78 down to 12876842089682.48   about -.75%.

Latest Block:   606926  (19 minutes ago)

Current Pace:   91.9087%  (111 / 120.77 expected, 9.77 behind)

Current Difficulty:   12876842089682.48XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 12060966934562 and 12784232701696
Next Difficulty Change:   between -6.3360% and -0.7192%
Previous Retarget:   Yesterday at 2:39 PM
Next Retarget (earliest):   December 19, 2019 at 5:49 PM  (in 13d 7h 2m 20s)
Next Retarget (latest):   December 20, 2019 at 8:14 PM  (in 14d 9h 27m 5s)
Projected Epoch Length:   between 14d 3h 10m 3s and 15d 5h 34m 48s

very early numbers for now are good.

coins at  7392

so far so good.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 07, 2019, 01:35:48 AM
 #517

The flood of units coming ashore this month is not only large in volume but these machines are monsters. If I had to bet I'd say there is a pretty good jump coming.
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December 07, 2019, 04:03:06 AM
 #518

Yeah whatsminer is shipping a lot of gear in Jan.

They also are making a m30s doing 88th and 3350 watts.  a true monster.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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December 07, 2019, 03:44:25 PM
Last edit: December 09, 2019, 03:33:32 AM by frodocooper
 #519

I just saw that yesterday Phil. Wow...I'm not familiar with the Whatsminer production capacity. Do they make and sell enough Miners to make a mark on BTC diff movements?
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December 07, 2019, 05:02:12 PM
Last edit: December 09, 2019, 03:33:50 AM by frodocooper
 #520

Yes they should deliver over 20eh of gear in Dec and Jan

the ceo made this claim.

if true  it was based on m20 and m20s  not m30 or m30s.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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