Bitcoin Price Defends $3.5K After Cboe Pulls ETF Proposal

[mich]

Bitcoin Price Defends $3.5K After Cboe Pulls ETF Proposal
https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-defends-3-5k-after-cboe-pulls-etf-proposal

With bitcoin (BTC) showing resilience to negative news flow, a strong bullish move is looking increasingly likely.

On Wednesday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) BZX equity exchange withdrew its request for a rule change by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that would have allowed it to list a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) backed by VanEck and SolidX.

The market narrative with respect to the ETF is that its approval could trigger the next bull run in the leading cryptocurrency by market value. Moreover, in the past, markets have responded negatively to delays or rejections in ETF approval.

The latest ETF withdrawal, however, has barely moved the needle for BTC’s price. The cryptocurrency continues to trade in a sideways manner above the crucial support at $3,500.

The calm response to the bearish news could be considered a sign of seller exhaustion – more so, as the primary trend is still bearish. As a result, the cryptocurrency could soon end the 14-day-long consolidation with a bullish breakout.

Further, the Cboe ETF – first filed with the SEC in June 2018 – had experienced several delays in the past. As a result, the bar of expectation was set low and was likely priced in by traders.

As of writing, BTC is changing hands at $3,540 on Bitstamp, representing a 0.70 percent drop on a 24-hour basis.

On the daily chart, BTC has created a descending triangle, which comprises a horizontal line connecting a strong support level and a falling trendline representing lower highs.

A UTC close above the upper edge of the triangle, currently at $3,630, would confirm the breakout and could yield a rally to the psychological resistance of $4,000.

The odds of the bull breakout look good, as the ETF news failed to embolden the bears and gold is feeling the pull of gravity (as discussed yesterday, BTC and gold look to be inversely related).


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    BTC’s defense of $3,500 amid the bearish news flow likely indicates seller exhaustion. As a result, the prospects of cryptocurrency witnessing a triangle breakout on the daily chart are high. A bull breakout, if confirmed, would expose resistance lined up at $4,000.

    A triangle breakdown – i.e. a close below $3,470 – would validate the bearish setup on the weekly chart and increase the odds of a drop to the December low of $3,122.

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[avikz]

Can you please remind me if the CBOE one was the physical one? because if the ETF proposed was the physical one, then it is definitely a sad news. Otherwise it is the reason to cheer. Because in physical ETF, actual bitcoin will be traded but in a synthetic ETF, only bitcoin futures will be traded which will bring no impact to the market other than increasing the numbers of speculators. So please tell me if the CBOE one was the physical one.

[FatBen]

I don't know if it just only me but I really didn't care much about the ETF proposal... If BTC rode from cents to 20K without the ETF proposal in view then we are still good.

[Ranly123]

I don't know if it just only me but I really didn't care much about the ETF proposal... If BTC rode from cents to 20K without the ETF proposal in view then we are still good.

That's right, Bitcoin started from 0 without ETF but stil rise up to $20k. These only means that even without the ETF proposals Bitcoin would still be on the go for another bullrun.

[sunsilk]

That's right, Bitcoin started from 0 without ETF but stil rise up to $20k. These only means that even without the ETF proposals Bitcoin would still be on the go for another bullrun.

This is what I'm about to say. Bitcoin made to its all time high without the help of any ETF proposal/approval. It's likely that few years from now bitcoin will go on bull run as usual through strong mass adoption.

I don't know if it just only me but I really didn't care much about the ETF proposal... If BTC rode from cents to 20K without the ETF proposal in view then we are still good.

I don't care also with ETF but majority is very positive to it because they just think that it's the only way to see another bull run. It's the only help that bitcoin can get to make its price up again.

[biskitop]

it seems like the bull run will really be delayed, for the time being ETF is still not received and still waiting until February again.

[joniboini]

it seems like the bull run will really be delayed, for the time being ETF is still not received and still waiting until February again.

I don't think so. In fact, ETF withdrawal doesn't affect market movement at all (at least up to this point). Looks like people were never expecting ETF to happen and so this news doesn't bring any new sentiment to the market. Most likely we will go sideways for the next few months before we can see new price action.

You can also check this analysis which argues that we're at the bottom[1], so there should not be any sudden price movement even though fundamental looks bleak or great.
[1] https://medium.com/@renato_shira/bitcoin-bottom-is-in-35ff1e2b9403

[exstasie]

The latest ETF withdrawal, however, has barely moved the needle for BTC’s price. The cryptocurrency continues to trade in a sideways manner above the crucial support at $3,500.

The calm response to the bearish news could be considered a sign of seller exhaustion – more so, as the primary trend is still bearish. As a result, the cryptocurrency could soon end the 14-day-long consolidation with a bullish breakout.

I'm leaning in this direction myself. When the market is bearish and supply is strong, sellers tend to react strongly to bad news. Seeing no reaction at all to this news indicates seller exhaustion.

That doesn't mean the bear market is over, but it does mean a correction back up to $5K is still possible (and maybe even likely).

[Commitments]

Almost at new year bitcoin price still keep on $3,5k and never could raised to higher price, will be the dark year for bitcoin or not, we will wait what happen at bitcoin in this year, will be lower or higher.

[bangkit tri]

The latest ETF withdrawal, however, has barely moved the needle for BTC’s price. The cryptocurrency continues to trade in a sideways manner above the crucial support at $3,500.

The calm response to the bearish news could be considered a sign of seller exhaustion – more so, as the primary trend is still bearish. As a result, the cryptocurrency could soon end the 14-day-long consolidation with a bullish breakout.

I'm leaning in this direction myself. When the market is bearish and supply is strong, sellers tend to react strongly to bad news. Seeing no reaction at all to this news indicates seller exhaustion.

That doesn't mean the bear market is over, but it does mean a correction back up to $5K is still possible (and maybe even likely).

technically, bitcoin broke the price of $ 5000, and currently still in a bearish position, it is possible for a correction to occur, if it cannot break the price of $ 5000, then I think the price will come back down again

[Jating]

I think everyone should differentiate withdrawal from rejection. When we say withdrawal, it means the CBoE will just re-apply if everything settles down in the side of US government. A eventual rejection will dose all hopes and that might have a negative effect on the price.

Right now the withdrawal doesn't mean anything for investors though, that's why their no significant dent on the price, imho.

[amrulshare]

I just thought that in 2019 the media news and the Proposal ETF did not have a negative impact on the value of Bitcoin. This shows that Bitcoin has a brighter future and is likely to start in 2019 that many positive things will happen!

[Lucius]

Can you please remind me if the CBOE one was the physical one? because if the ETF proposed was the physical one, then it is definitely a sad news. Otherwise it is the reason to cheer. Because in physical ETF, actual bitcoin will be traded but in a synthetic ETF, only bitcoin futures will be traded which will bring no impact to the market other than increasing the numbers of speculators. So please tell me if the CBOE one was the physical one.

It was physical ETF, there was a lot of writing about that on the forum and even you comment regarding that : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4693319.0

There is no need to celebrate or be too worried about this news, simply is not the time for BTC ETF, regardless of type. To get some things in order as SEC ask, we will need to wait few more years, but that does not mean that there will not be new attempts this year for BTC ETF.

[Kemarit]

I think everyone should differentiate withdrawal from rejection. When we say withdrawal, it means the CBoE will just re-apply if everything settles down in the side of US government. A eventual rejection will dose all hopes and that might have a negative effect on the price.

Or possibly that people are no longer interested on the news per se. I'm sure that majority will agree that its very tiring waiting for positive news about the whole ETF drama for the last couple of years.

Right now the withdrawal doesn't mean anything for investors though, that's why their no significant dent on the price, imho.

Definitely they can reapply again in the future, but I would assume that it will be the rest results just like the rest of previous Bitcoin EFT proposal, - a rejection.

[Huskarls]

it seems like the bull run will really be delayed, for the time being ETF is still not received and still waiting until February again.

I don't think so. In fact, ETF withdrawal doesn't affect market movement at all (at least up to this point). Looks like people were never expecting ETF to happen and so this news doesn't bring any new sentiment to the market. Most likely we will go sideways for the next few months before we can see new price action.

You can also check this analysis which argues that we're at the bottom[1], so there should not be any sudden price movement even though fundamental looks bleak or great.
[1] https://medium.com/@renato_shira/bitcoin-bottom-is-in-35ff1e2b9403

since Q4 2018, the ETF has been awaited to wait until it continues to experience a continuous delay until now. Where it also has an impact on the market until we have reached the bottom point like your statement. There is even a high probability that the market will decline if there is no clarity about ETF.

[davis196]

This is a good move.Withdrawing a proposal that was about to be rejected anyway.There is a lot of frustation and disappointment in the crypto world,since last year's bull run,so it would be a lot easier for the SEC to reject the proposal.In a bull run,market hype,optimistic situation regarding btc,the SEC will face higher pressure to approve the ETF.We are waiting for that moment to come.

[deisik]

That doesn't mean the bear market is over, but it does mean a correction back up to $5K is still possible (and maybe even likely)

A lot of people are waiting for that rebound to come about

This is our new ceiling, get used to it. When Bitcoin fell below 12k in earnest (after a few short-lived rebounds), many folks here were saying that it would be a new ceiling. And it came to be. Now our new ceiling seems to be at 5k. Whenever price is going to come close to this mark, there will be a massive resistance as people will be selling what they bought just below 6k (which was a support a couple months ago) in an effort to get rid of their bags even at a small loss (or not so small)

The bottom line is that there are still a lot of sellers in the market despite the price looking "stable". But if they are not going to sell at current prices, it doesn't mean that they won't when the price rises to their break-even point. These are the weak hands that everyone talks about and thinks that they have already been shaken out. They haven't

[crzy]

it seems like the bull run will really be delayed, for the time being ETF is still not received and still waiting until February again.

Do we really need this one? I think we can still pump without this and if you can see the market don’t react negatively on this. I mean, ETF is good but if its going to be delayed it doesn’t mean the market can’t go up anymore we just need to wait for the right time and be positive always.

[hatshepsut93]

Remember how in the last year the price was dropping when ETF's got rejected? Now one of the most promising ETF's got called off, and no one cares, the price didn't even flinch. The market is getting more and more rational, people don't FOMO or panic because of the news, this is good. The less volatile and sensitive Bitcoin is, the more valuable it becomes. Price volatility has been and still is a major flaw of Bitcoin.

[wuvdoll]

This was something I did not really expected. I mean I knew bitcoin ETF proposal may not get accepted and market would react to it but maybe withdrawing from contention was different. I believed only two options existed, either ETF would get accepted or it would get rejected, I did not think about this option at all.

To my assumptions if the ETF got accepted the price of bitcoin would have gone up and if the ETF got rejected it would have gone down, now that they are not even a thing the price didn't move, its closer to getting rejected than getting accepted so it should have gone down but apparently people didn't even care about it that much which I am not sure if its good or not. Now we know what happens when ETF doesn't happen, it happened before when it got rejected the price didn't move but does that also mean price will not go up when one day it gets accepted? If that's the case that is not good for any of us.

[exstasie]

Remember how in the last year the price was dropping when ETF's got rejected? Now one of the most promising ETF's got called off, and no one cares, the price didn't even flinch. The market is getting more and more rational, people don't FOMO or panic because of the news, this is good. The less volatile and sensitive Bitcoin is, the more valuable it becomes. Price volatility has been and still is a major flaw of Bitcoin.

I wouldn't get too used to it. It could just be a short term aberration from the norm. It might just indicate that sellers are exhausted after the crash from $6K, or it might just mean the market had already priced in an ETF rejection.

For all we know, more significant bad news will trigger a real selloff.

[Agapelove]

I don't know if it just only me but I really didn't care much about the ETF proposal... If BTC rode from cents to 20K without the ETF proposal in view then we are still good.

That's right, Bitcoin started from 0 without ETF but stil rise up to $20k. These only means that even without the ETF proposals Bitcoin would still be on the go for another bullrun.

Agree! Bitcoin investors are numb about any bitcoin ETF disapproval or postponement. Bitcoin will eventually find its way to go mainstream adoption as time goes by. As soon as we shifted back our focus on the development of the technology rather than focusing on investment.

[3core]

All I can say is that Bitcoin showing resilience to negative news flow is just a proof that Bitcoin doesn't need The ETF to thrive again, if the ETF supposed to be very influential bon Bitcoin, its delays after all this while should have showed significant impact on Bitcoin price.

[susuberuang]

currently there are still those who hold bitcoin at a price of $ 3.5k if there are no supporters and anchors of bitcoin prices then it seems that the price of bitcoin could potentially fall deeper because there is no good news that occurs when there are ETF proposals, because many traders also disapprove This ETF.

[owlman]

It seems to me that the SEC decision, regarding ETF-Bitcoin, is attached too much importance and nobody knows how a positive decision would affect the cryptocurrency market. I hope that the recovery of the market does not depend only on the SEC and its decisions.

[ecnalubma]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season.

[deisik]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season

The answer to this question should be pretty obvious

People are not so much pro-decentralization as they are pro-profit deep inside. In other words, they would easily exchange a little bit of decentralization for a little bit of profits. That's the reason why we care so much about SEC decisions as their attitude directly affects our profit potential, either way. Then again, you yourself talk about prices and rewards, not adoption and use, which is telling

[horrifiedx1]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season.

of course the government plays an important role in regulating its community, so that policies from them are needed to encourage the growth of cryptocurrency. moreover US, where the power has an influence on other countries in the world. they seemed to appear in front of each sector, moreover economic things

[BitBustah]

All I can say is that Bitcoin showing resilience to negative news flow is just a proof that Bitcoin doesn't need The ETF to thrive again, if the ETF supposed to be very influential bon Bitcoin, its delays after all this while should have showed significant impact on Bitcoin price.

The news shows little correlation with price action.  I've seen bitcoin drop many times on good news and the opposite as well. The best move is to just buy and hold and not try to time the dips and try to sell the pumps and buy back in cheaper.

[BitHodler]

For all we know, more significant bad news will trigger a real selloff.

You think? I don't see how any bad news will affect the market, because it's going down anyway. People blame it on bad news, because that's what they do, but the news isn't behind the declining prices.

I'm sure that you remember how people first blamed South Korea for the price to go down, then social media ad bans, anti ICO regulations, bans, and so forth. It's literally news for the masses, the most useless news there is.

If we're due for one last dump to shake out noobs and get rich quick crypto funds, then it will happen out of nothing, when no one expects it, because that's how you make sure that they will hate Bitcoin and crypto and dump.

[Idrisu]

Very sad I am hearing this for the first time.  ETF should be the reason for the next bull but if cboe has withdraw it means bitcoin has to survive by itself.  The market is seriously bearish and that is why it could not goes down more than expected.  I believe that something positive will come up this year.

[exstasie]

For all we know, more significant bad news will trigger a real selloff.

You think? I don't see how any bad news will affect the market, because it's going down anyway. People blame it on bad news, because that's what they do, but the news isn't behind the declining prices.

Bad news isn't behind declining prices, but it definitely catalyzes selloffs. Consider the selloffs that followed the Bitfinex hack or the Mt Gox shutdown, or all those times "the PBOC banned Bitcoin!" I'm big on technical analysis and I've always taken the position that these market moves were going to happen anyway eventually. But it's obvious that major news can help trigger strong supply/demand that was already waiting in the wings.

This is why during bull markets, bad news has virtually no effect. Demand is simply too strong. It's during bear markets that bad news matters, because demand is so weak and the market is looking for any reason or catalyst to sell off.

[1Referee]

Very sad I am hearing this for the first time.  ETF should be the reason for the next bull but if cboe has withdraw it means bitcoin has to survive by itself.

Lol. You make it sound like Bitcoin desperately needs an ETF, which isn't the case. We went up to where we are without futures, ETF's, Bakkt, etc, and we can do the same again without them. People just think they are important because they want the price to finally go back up, but it doesn't work like that. Without the market having found a bottom nothing will help you initiate a bull run.

Bitcoin's most bullish development is how Lightning is growing, and in the long term it will boost Bitcoin's adoption in the most favorable possible way. Use is what we need, not more institutions thinking that Bitcoin is an interesting short term bet, then dump it to secure profits causing a massive decline in price. They don't care about Bitcoin, they just want their profits.

[Jating]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season

The answer to this question should be pretty obvious

People are no so much pro-decentralization as they are pro-profit deep inside. In other words, they would easily exchange a little bit of decentralization for a little bit of profits. That's the reason why we care so much about SEC decisions as their attitude directly affects our profit potential, either way. Then again, you yourself talk about prices and rewards, not adoption and use, which is telling

Gone are the days of pure bitcoin maximalist and underground anarchist saying f*** government and banking system. Now crypto has been overrun by businessman, wealthy elitist and wanted to make money out of thin air in this market. Bitcoin now is touted as the best investment platform, but totally forgot the original vision of Satoshi which is a P2P system without any 3rd party in the middle.

That's why their attitude is really pushing for the approval of ETF's so that they will take advantage of the market once lots of noobs FOMO again.

[deisik]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season

The answer to this question should be pretty obvious

People are no so much pro-decentralization as they are pro-profit deep inside. In other words, they would easily exchange a little bit of decentralization for a little bit of profits. That's the reason why we care so much about SEC decisions as their attitude directly affects our profit potential, either way. Then again, you yourself talk about prices and rewards, not adoption and use, which is telling

Gone are the days of pure bitcoin maximalist and underground anarchist saying f*** government and banking system. Now crypto has been overrun by businessman, wealthy elitist and wanted to make money out of thin air in this market. Bitcoin now is touted as the best investment platform, but totally forgot the original vision of Satoshi which is a P2P system without any 3rd party in the middle.

That's why their attitude is really pushing for the approval of ETF's so that they will take advantage of the market once lots of noobs FOMO again

That's my point exactly

However, people who claim that they stick to their guns, i.e. to Satoshi's true vision, turn out to be even greater elitists and profit-oriented blokes wanting "to make money out of thin air in this market" than what you would expect from an average businessman, huh. In fact, it can be said that "pure bitcoin maximalists and underground anarchists" turned out to be not much better than the rest of the pack or maybe even worse if we consider their impact on Bitcoin's development these days

[STT]

Can you please remind me if the CBOE one was the physical one? because if the ETF proposed was the physical one, then it is definitely a sad news. Otherwise it is the reason to cheer. Because in physical ETF, actual bitcoin will be traded but in a synthetic ETF, only bitcoin futures will be traded which will bring no impact to the market other than increasing the numbers of speculators. So please tell me if the CBOE one was the physical one.

This proposal was by CBOE futures to be contained in an ETF which would be a similar system to how people can trade various agriculture commodities without actually getting involved in storage fees for vast warehouses of the product.    Its the most basic long term justification for markets like these, that can facilitate trading of a product by people entirely unconnected to the originating commodity.  

I think it would have been a good thing, I'm not a farmer but Iam part of a society that uses and relies on the use of wheat so maybe I want to be bullish on that product from afar and an ETF allows that.  Similarly BTC is a product that has a global range to it and should be feasible as a product to hedge but unfortunately they are not going ahead with that idea immediately it seems ?    Answer was due around Feb 2019 so I guess it was not going to be approved so they withdrew to reformulate an idea with a better chance perhaps

[Sithara007]

By now ETF rejections should not have any impact on the exchange rates.

[andriarto]

Investors are immune too much for this dramas which no surprise the market didn't dip that much what happen is opposite. We are pro decentralization but why are we so much affected by a centralized authority specially the US SEC decisions? On which there is no guarantee that upon approval the price will skyrocket again, I can feel the organic growth but due to manipulators its hard to achieve rewards during this season

The answer to this question should be pretty obvious

People are no so much pro-decentralization as they are pro-profit deep inside. In other words, they would easily exchange a little bit of decentralization for a little bit of profits. That's the reason why we care so much about SEC decisions as their attitude directly affects our profit potential, either way. Then again, you yourself talk about prices and rewards, not adoption and use, which is telling

Gone are the days of pure bitcoin maximalist and underground anarchist saying f*** government and banking system. Now crypto has been overrun by businessman, wealthy elitist and wanted to make money out of thin air in this market. Bitcoin now is touted as the best investment platform, but totally forgot the original vision of Satoshi which is a P2P system without any 3rd party in the middle.

That's why their attitude is really pushing for the approval of ETF's so that they will take advantage of the market once lots of noobs FOMO again

That's my point exactly

However, people who claim that they stick to their guns, i.e. to Satoshi's true vision, turn out to be even greater elitists and profit-oriented blokes wanting "to make money out of thin air in this market" than what you would expect from an average businessman, huh. In fact, it can be said that "pure bitcoin maximalists and underground anarchists" turned out to be not much better than the rest of the pack or maybe even worse if we consider their impact on Bitcoin's development these days

I just realized, indeed the essence of this time is that people enter the world of cryptocurrency, to double their money. but they were wrong when at the beginning of 2018 prices fell and many lost their money. this year there are many people who only focus on the price of bitcoin to increase dramatically, of course this makes it different from the initial purpose of bitcoin

[Kakmakr]

I think most investors know that this application will be filed again after the government shutdown has been resolved. They wanted to avoid a scenario where the SEC just had to rush a possible denial of the application, based on the Feb 27 deadline.

They might even hope if they do not push the SEC into a corner to meet the deadline, that they would be more willing to approve the application.  <It also gives them an opportunity to streamline the application> 

https://www.coindesk.com/cboe-withdraws-proposal-for-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf

[davinchi]

Exactly my thoughts, if you force them to give an answer right away they would probably say no to be on the safe side, they are on a shutdown and they have bigger problems to deal with right now than accepting a bitcoin ETF, hence withdrawing seems like the right idea since that would give SEC some breathing room and show bitcoins understanding of the situation and when everything is fixed on the shutdown part (we still don't know when it will be solved) they can reapply for the ETF and that way we will have more time and will wait for it to be solved and so forth. That still looks like the simplest solution to this problem (shutdown of the government). Hence I think this probably took the possibility of ETF getting accepted higher with a smart move on the perfect time.

[romero121]

Once ETF was processed as a way to manipulate the market by the largest volume holders. During those days people feared about the market, but scenarios changed as users have understood better about the market. As the ETF is pulled off nothing big happend in the market. This has made the people stay active in the market without any FOMO.

[Renaldi blackspadeteam]

I don't care about ETFs, because in the past the price of bitcoin was more than $ 18K + without ETFs, there are many factors that have lowered the price of Bitcoin but most importantly the price of bitcoin will never drop to 0, so don't be afraid of bitcoin investment, I believe Bitcoin will continues to grow with the passage of time, this is enough to pump back the price of bitcoin from time to time