Bitcoin Market Analysis (Price Action).

[Faysal Fahad]

Hello BTC community;

I’m doing my trading based on Price Action strategy mainly & here is my thinking on BTCUSD right now:



According to the weekly chart; now we are in a range (between 4116.64 to 3247.81) after a long impulsive bearish move (from the level of 6306.91). The general rule of the trading market is: impulsive -->Corrective (range)--> then again impulsive.



So, I’ll not surprised if the market breaks nearest support level  2915.5! On the other hand, buyers need to make initial movements if they wanna start a bullish trend here; based on the daily chart 4116.64 is very vital level. Without breaking this level, there is no way to establish a bullish trend.

If the market breaks support level then the next support level will be 1975-1853.
Thank you; 

[Herbert2020]

drawing two arrows going in opposite directions is barely an analysis

and regarding the drop i have to say they don't come out of nowhere. at this point there needs to be another strong negative reason for it to drop otherwise it can not. and the support is not at $2915, but instead at $3000 because of the psychological barrier more than anything else and if that is broken we might either see a panic that can drop the price to low levels that you said or we might see a FOMO (another form of panic but in buying direction) like previous times that people see a lower price and start a buying frenzy in which case price can start rising up even and not go any lower than $2900

[Faysal Fahad]

the support is not at $2915, but instead at $3000 because of the psychological barrier more than anything else.

Well; I basically marked the S/R levels based on the market chart, but I got your point. Sometimes, it's true.

[piebeyb]

You're giving us all 2 analysis options where prices will go in which direction, whether it's going up or down is something interesting in trading, so how are we going now, as long as the support of buying $ 6000 doesn't work and under $ 4000 doesn't produce support buys high, then where support buys very high and is awaited by all traders, if we touch below $ 2000 I think that's where they wait for the support to buy very high, thank you for your analysis, respect

[Magkirap]

Hello BTC community;

I’m doing my trading based on Price Action strategy mainly & here is my thinking on BTCUSD right now:



According to the weekly chart; now we are in a range (between 4116.64 to 3247.81) after a long impulsive bearish move (from the level of 6306.91). The general rule of the trading market is: impulsive -->Corrective (range)--> then again impulsive.



So, I’ll not surprised if the market breaks nearest support level  2915.5! On the other hand, buyers need to make initial movements if they wanna start a bullish trend here; based on the daily chart 4116.64 is very vital level. Without breaking this level, there is no way to establish a bullish trend.

If the market breaks support level then the next support level will be 1975-1853.
Thank you; 

It's hard to determine if the price of bitcoin will go down or go up. I think $5000 per bitcoin is still unpredictable because as now the price is around $3200. Your analysis about the price of bitcoin will might hit but I think right now the $5000 price of bitcoin is very impossible to hit.

[Faysal Fahad]

You're giving us all 2 analysis options where prices will go in which direction, whether it's going up or down is something interesting in trading, so how are we going now, as long as the support of buying $ 6000 doesn't work and under $ 4000 doesn't produce support buys high, then where support buys very high and is awaited by all traders, if we touch below $ 2000 I think that's where they wait for the support to buy very high, thank you for your analysis, respect

Basically, Day trading or short term trading till now tough here; only long term trading can help. I guess, using all of the major support levels with a little trade volume (based on traders capital) is a wise decision, instead of targeting any particular level or area. Since I'm optimistic about the future of BTC.

 

[Red-Apple]

You're giving us all 2 analysis options where prices will go in which direction, whether it's going up or down is something interesting in trading, so how are we going now, as long as the support of buying $ 6000 doesn't work and under $ 4000 doesn't produce support buys high, then where support buys very high and is awaited by all traders, if we touch below $ 2000 I think that's where they wait for the support to buy very high, thank you for your analysis, respect

Basically, Day trading or short term trading till now tough here; only long term trading can help. I guess, using all of the major support levels with a little trade volume (based on traders capital) is a wise decision, instead of targeting any particular level or area. Since I'm optimistic about the future of BTC.

i think these days only, the trading bitcoin is the hardest of all times. because it will either stay the same stable phase with little changes which makes profit making small or non-existent or it can make a sudden move in either direction which is unpredictable by the way, and that makes it impossible to make any decisions at this point.
i believe that is the main reason for lower volumes too. everyone is waiting for that signal to make their moves.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Basically, Day trading or short term trading till now tough here; only long term trading can help. I guess, using all of the major support levels with a little trade volume (based on traders capital) is a wise decision, instead of targeting any particular level or area. Since I'm optimistic about the future of BTC.

 

Well then just buy and hold for long time. It is obvious that bitcoin price is going nowhere unless any major accident (which I have no idea) happen. I am considering to buy whenever I have spare fiats. Not interested in trading. Don't give it an extra push when you can not take the load.

[kryptqnick]

drawing two arrows going in opposite directions is barely an analysis

and regarding the drop i have to say they don't come out of nowhere. at this point there needs to be another strong negative reason for it to drop otherwise it can not.

Yeah, I also found it funny how Bitcoin can either go up to $5k something or below $3k  IMO the price analysis thing does not make much sense even when the arrow points in one direction, though. As for the drops, I am with you on this matter. When the price was overhyped, it was going down because of minor things like social networks banning crypto ads or Asian countries regulating and almost banning ICOs. The $6k position was given up after the Faketoshi started doing crazy stuff and made Bitcoin SV. Something equally terrible should happen to make the price go down even more. Perhaps if Bakkt fails, this could be enough, but not some pseudo-experts saying bitcoin is worthless and stuff.

[davis196]

drawing two arrows going in opposite directions is barely an analysis

and regarding the drop i have to say they don't come out of nowhere. at this point there needs to be another strong negative reason for it to drop otherwise it can not.

Yeah, I also found it funny how Bitcoin can either go up to $5k something or below $3k  IMO the price analysis thing does not make much sense even when the arrow points in one direction, though. As for the drops, I am with you on this matter. When the price was overhyped, it was going down because of minor things like social networks banning crypto ads or Asian countries regulating and almost banning ICOs. The $6k position was given up after the Faketoshi started doing crazy stuff and made Bitcoin SV. Something equally terrible should happen to make the price go down even more. Perhaps if Bakkt fails, this could be enough, but not some pseudo-experts saying bitcoin is worthless and stuff.

The Bakkt failure is expected by the market and It shouldn't be considered as a surprise.Therefore,I don't think that the bitcoin price would crash because of the Bakkt project failure.I didn't understand OP's price analysis and why the bitcoin price should go to 5791 USD,but hey,price analysis is a learning process and the OP has to gain more knowledge and improve by practice.

[semobo]

Basically, Day trading or short term trading till now tough here; only long term trading can help. I guess, using all of the major support levels with a little trade volume (based on traders capital) is a wise decision, instead of targeting any particular level or area. Since I'm optimistic about the future of BTC.

 

Well then just buy and hold for long time. It is obvious that bitcoin price is going nowhere unless any major accident (which I have no idea) happen. I am considering to buy whenever I have spare fiats. Not interested in trading. Don't give it an extra push when you can not take the load.

More people needed of your kind to bring the bullish trend here,traders also one of the reason why we are in the bearish trend so stop trading and your wish for short term profits if you want to make profits in long term with the bitcoin.

[1Referee]

traders also one of the reason why we are in the bearish trend so stop trading and your wish for short term profits if you want to make profits in long term with the bitcoin.

That makes no sense. Traders just follow the trend, and the trend has been bearish for quite a long period of time, and it may continue to be like this for a couple of more months.

I get it that people are sick and tired of this bear market, but there is no point blaming a specific group of people for doing something that allows them to make profit. They just utilize the trend that's presented to them, so even if they didn't trade, the market would still tank. Accept the reality.

It really seems that people don't acknowledge the fact that we're going through a bear market. Be happy that you aren't going through a lengthy legacy bear market, because you would be pissed as fuck.

[semobo]

traders also one of the reason why we are in the bearish trend so stop trading and your wish for short term profits if you want to make profits in long term with the bitcoin.

That makes no sense. Traders just follow the trend, and the trend has been bearish for quite a long period of time, and it may continue to be like this for a couple of more months.

I get it that people are sick and tired of this bear market, but there is no point blaming a specific group of people for doing something that allows them to make profit. They just utilize the trend that's presented to them, so even if they didn't trade, the market would still tank. Accept the reality.

It really seems that people don't acknowledge the fact that we're going through a bear market. Be happy that you aren't going through a lengthy legacy bear market, because you would be pissed as fuck.

If the traders who are doing it as profession making every opportunity to make money,then the chances of getting recovered will get slower right.But the trend may follow for few more months but long term investment on bitcoin by everyone will ignite the fire needed for the bull to run.

[STT]

Marking a range is reasonable basic TA however I would point out that a good resistance level is formed by more then one point of contact.   The most likely support or resistance will come from multiple previous times a price has closed at that point.

The strongest line I've seen longer term was that 200 week moving average which I didnt even know about beforehand, roughly 3300 and still rising amazingly .

Shorter term we are stuck under 8 day average so it has to build above that to be called positive I think

[buwaytress]

drawing two arrows going in opposite directions is barely an analysis

and regarding the drop i have to say they don't come out of nowhere. at this point there needs to be another strong negative reason for it to drop otherwise it can not. and the support is not at $2915, but instead at $3000 because of the psychological barrier more than anything else and if that is broken we might either see a panic that can drop the price to low levels that you said or we might see a FOMO (another form of panic but in buying direction) like previous times that people see a lower price and start a buying frenzy in which case price can start rising up even and not go any lower than $2900

Sorry to have to agree with this, but I'm not sure there's any value to adding yet another set of charts showing the same arbitrary support lines and pointing out that we're headed either here or there.

Do feel these smouldering low volumes are going to lead to a spike or two soon, but probably just over double digits either way. The upper 5.9k limit's unlikely in the same timeframe, I think another drop's imminent, and we won't need that strong negative reason actually. 3k is the next psychological line, and if that gives way, stomach in our throats!

[Kemarit]

I think another drop's imminent, and we won't need that strong negative reason actually. 3k is the next psychological line, and if that gives way, stomach in our throats!

I don't know but I have a feeling that we may have reached the bottom, but I wouldn't be surprised if we break the resistance around $3k. So far it is holding good and strong but if it's breach then I'm expecting another massive drop, it might a price that we don't want to see, but we should be strong to face the reality. Others might say its catastrophic but it maybe the final capitulation that we all have been waiting for.

[Faysal Fahad]

Hello My Community; I’m back!

Here is my prediction! Please, don’t be panic if you are concern according to the recent sell moves! According to the BTCUSD chart context on H4 the current support zone is very vital; if we get anything like pin bar pattern that would be really great for the buy site! I believe, buyers are monitoring this zone so carefully!

I see, the previous support zone (@6870.40) behaved almost similar as this one @7553.38; so it’s very possible we are going to see the same flow I mean, bullish continuation!

On the other hand, if market breaks this support level then the market can test the recent-past support level!
Happy trading.

[Faysal Fahad]

You're giving us all 2 analysis options where prices will go in which direction, whether it's going up or down is something interesting in trading,

Because; there is nothing like 100% in trading, it’s all about probabilities! 

[STT]

Welcome back, always glad to see people talk through a chart view and we progress in a view of the market and hopefully add some accuracy and confidence to ideas for the trend.

Here is my short term take and where I think it needs to beat to turn back bullish.  



From left to right the moving average at the start shows 8 day roughly, losing that as momentum support bought us back to the bottom edge of a channel upwards.  We have recently failed that and so I expect 8000 to cap price for now unless we are to regain more bullish price movements.   I'm thinking a short with a stoploss is fairly reasonable

Because; there is nothing like 100% in trading, it’s all about probabilities!

I agree its about identifying areas of significance, a basic view given is less negative then an overly ambitious declaration that over states confidence in a prediction

[figmentofmyass]

I see, the previous support zone (@6870.40) behaved almost similar as this one @7553.38; so it’s very possible we are going to see the same flow I mean, bullish continuation!

so this is based mostly on the 4h candle? admittedly it's a bullish candle (a hammer doji) but i bet it's only a local bottom, after which a bounce will follow, and then further downtrending.

bears made a strong move below the 20dma and we can see a lower high / lower low trend on the daily chart now. if we trade back into the $8000s like your chart shows, it will be a good opportunity to sell tbh.

[el kaka22]

What charts do not tell you that this drop was caused by someone selling over 200 million dollars in bitcoin and the market had to buy that out which dropped the price insanely fast. That wasn't on the chart, you can't predict that.

How could you foresee someone selling over 200 million dollars in bitcoin to market prices when you look at a chart ? Impossible to assume and that is why bitcoin is never done via charts, you can't predict what will happen looking at the charts and draw some lines on it.

Bitcoin is something that is done via just regular old whales doing whatever they want and getting what they want back from it. Dude managed to sell so much coins but also after the price dropped he managed to get back almost the same amount of bitcoins for far cheaper as well, all proven via blockchain watching and the price is lower however he has a ton of dollars with the same amount of bitcoins thanks to this move, that's it.

[Faysal Fahad]

Hello Community; till now Buyers controlling this support zone! Very soon (maybe) we are going to see impulsive bullish candles! (for more details, just follow my previous chart)

[JeffBrad12]

Hello Community; till now Buyers controlling this support zone! Very soon (maybe) we are going to see impulsive bullish candles! (for more details, just follow my previous chart)

Bitcoin has already surpassed 8k resistance point again and it looks like we will see another reversal trend from the bearish to the bullish.
I just try to put 8.9k as the next resistance point to the bullish trend of bitcoin.

Good news is needed to make bitcoin can break 9k rate in the future.

[pooya87]

Bitcoin has already surpassed 8k resistance point again and it looks like we will see another reversal trend from the bearish to the bullish.
I just try to put 8.9k as the next resistance point to the bullish trend of bitcoin.

Good news is needed to make bitcoin can break 9k rate in the future.

bitcoin has not been bearish ever since price went above $4000 although may users insist on staying bearish themselves and go against the tide. other than that we are only seeing a very simply correction here which has nothing to do with being bearish.
as for $9k, i don't think we need any kind of news at all. we are headed that way and it will be broken with time.

[omonuyak]

Bitcoin has already surpassed 8k resistance point again and it looks like we will see another reversal trend from the bearish to the bullish.
I just try to put 8.9k as the next resistance point to the bullish trend of bitcoin.

Good news is needed to make bitcoin can break 9k rate in the future.

bitcoin has not been bearish ever since price went above $4000 although may users insist on staying bearish themselves and go against the tide. other than that we are only seeing a very simply correction here which has nothing to do with being bearish.
as for $9k, i don't think we need any kind of news at all. we are headed that way and it will be broken with time.

Because of the way some people come into cryptocurrencies trading, they always thinking that when the market is bullish, it should be going up continuously without a little corrections along the line and when that is happening we would began to see comments on how the bullish trend has ended, the market is bearish now and so Fort and so on. People need to know that corrections most take place on both bearish and bullish market.

[BitHodler]

People need to know that corrections most take place on both bearish and bullish market.

Exactly. Most people unfortunately do not understand this and continue to see corrections as a negative event. Instead of buying the dips they wait for a massive pump and then buy the top. Makes sense, right? 

I sold a bit too early and would love to be presented an opportunity to buy them back. I'm better off just doing what I'm good at instead of trading, which is being a firm hodler.

All indicators that used to make sense no longer do, which reminds me of the 2017 bull run where people were wrong calling top at every $500-$1000 increase. Hodlers were the real winners while many traders sucked balls.

[Kemarit]

Bitcoin has already surpassed 8k resistance point again and it looks like we will see another reversal trend from the bearish to the bullish.
I just try to put 8.9k as the next resistance point to the bullish trend of bitcoin.

Good news is needed to make bitcoin can break 9k rate in the future.

bitcoin has not been bearish ever since price went above $4000 although may users insist on staying bearish themselves and go against the tide. other than that we are only seeing a very simply correction here which has nothing to do with being bearish.
as for $9k, i don't think we need any kind of news at all. we are headed that way and it will be broken with time.

I think it was around February when we see that we are slowly getting into the bullish zone already. But still most of the crypto 'experts' says that we are still in the bearish cycle and then that April surge was the final push to get out of it and now we are hovering above $8+++ now. Although I thought that we will see some pullback, but I was proving wrong again. As for that 5 digits, let the market run on it's normal course, if there is a positive news then good. However, it's inevitable sooner or later the market will breach the $9000-$10000, even without any news at all.

[pooya87]

Bitcoin has already surpassed 8k resistance point again and it looks like we will see another reversal trend from the bearish to the bullish.
I just try to put 8.9k as the next resistance point to the bullish trend of bitcoin.

Good news is needed to make bitcoin can break 9k rate in the future.

bitcoin has not been bearish ever since price went above $4000 although may users insist on staying bearish themselves and go against the tide. other than that we are only seeing a very simply correction here which has nothing to do with being bearish.
as for $9k, i don't think we need any kind of news at all. we are headed that way and it will be broken with time.

I think it was around February when we see that we are slowly getting into the bullish zone already. But still most of the crypto 'experts' says that we are still in the bearish cycle and then that April surge was the final push to get out of it and now we are hovering above $8+++ now. Although I thought that we will see some pullback, but I was proving wrong again. As for that 5 digits, let the market run on it's normal course, if there is a positive news then good. However, it's inevitable sooner or later the market will breach the $9000-$10000, even without any news at all.

we had a rather nice pull back though. as i said in the other topic (expecting drop to $6000) a correction is a must whenever we see a big rise like this but a correction is very different from a crash so we should really try to figure the differences out. for instance a drop down to $7500 was the correction and that kept the market and the rise healthy anything lower than that would have been unhealthy in the other direction! the same way we consider a big rise a bubble, we should also consider a big drop another type of bubble and both are equally unhealthy and unstable.

my point is that you weren't wrong about the pull back, you were only wrong about the size of it.

[exstasie]

Shorts are mooning along with the price. On Bitfinex, they've risen 30% from the low a week ago. This is a good sign for continued upward pressure.

Price is moving very freely at the moment. All those big red candles from late May to early June? Above this $8,700-$8,800 zone, those candles represent trapped sellers. More gas in the tank. Bullish.

[BitHodler]

Shorts are mooning along with the price. On Bitfinex, they've risen 30% from the low a week ago. This is a good sign for continued upward pressure.

Do you think the current setup might trigger a massive short squeeze? We haven't had one of these in a long time--all we have had so far were mini short squeezes due to the relatively neutral short/long ratio.

I still think that the psychological $10k mark will result in a brutal selloff the moment we're about to test it for the first time. Going from 4 figure to 5 figure prices is such an important difference psychologically that I expect fierce resistance.

The only thing I find a bit doubtful is that the volumes are heavily lagging behind despite the rush up we have gone through in the last couple of days. People are either waiting for a big move or it's largely thin bot activity we see happen.

[figmentofmyass]

I still think that the psychological $10k mark will result in a brutal selloff the moment we're about to test it for the first time. Going from 4 figure to 5 figure prices is such an important difference psychologically that I expect fierce resistance.

that seems intuitive, but it's also probably what everyone is expecting. just like the $6k "resistance" everyone expected, it might go like a hot knife through warm butter.

part of me thinks that bears blew their wad on the $8000s. this bear trap lasted for weeks, and we're only $800 from $10k. i think there's too much pent up buying pressure to reverse there now. higher!