Betting Diary - Trying out different betting systems every week

[buwaytress]

Good luck, buddy. I've seen your performance in the pools so I daresay you know how to make them picks! I've started my own system for about 3 months now, going on ambitious parlays or extreme underdog picks... mostly above 3.5x bets, usually much more.

It's definitely for fun, but I believe also in discipline if you really want results long term (I'm doing currently 1% or less of bankroll!).

Why not just back the picks you are confident in and where the odds are really good? I think 2-legged parlays at any rate should be at least above 3/1 to be "worth it". My favourite is to pick a game I feel the bookies underestimate and parlay it with a 1.2-1.5x "sure win". My problem is usually I like 3 or 4 legs and there's where I fail haha.

So I like your 3rd pick. Wolves should win this, but Newcastle might be the "smart" pick for 5/1 with new players (if they play!).

This is interesting. I remember Joca starting something similar and it was exciting. You do need to mention how much bankroll you're starting with and what's your end goal is. Watching this thread regardless.

I think I followed that, couple of months or max 3 months back was it? $10 to $1000 challenge it was (x10). I think he lost $7 or 8 times before the challenge just stopped, putting everything down on 1.x odds doesn't make it for me.

[Trofo]

Good luck, buddy. I've seen your performance in the pools so I daresay you know how to make them picks! I've started my own system for about 3 months now, going on ambitious parlays or extreme underdog picks... mostly above 3.5x bets, usually much more.

Thank you for kind words.

Furthermore, I see the appeal of finding value bets and betting on underdogs. I will definitely try that for one week strategy. Maybe even next weak. I just have to find way to try to make it work with such small bank (self restricted for testing purposes).

No luck today. Paire had a breakout after loosing first set 7:6. I knew that it would end poorly after seeing the first set go to decider. Usually you want to see decider when betting over gems on match, but not in the case of "mentally unstable" players.

[buwaytress]

Good luck, buddy. I've seen your performance in the pools so I daresay you know how to make them picks! I've started my own system for about 3 months now, going on ambitious parlays or extreme underdog picks... mostly above 3.5x bets, usually much more.

Thank you for kind words.

Furthermore, I see the appeal of finding value bets and betting on underdogs. I will definitely try that for one week strategy. Maybe even next weak. I just have to find way to try to make it work with such small bank (self restricted for testing purposes).

No luck today. Paire had a breakout after loosing first set 7:6. I knew that it would end poorly after seeing the first set go to decider. Usually you want to see decider when betting over gems on match, but not in the case of "mentally unstable" players.

Can't wait to see your next CL picks Don't worry about losing... strategies need a lot of time to see effectiveness (or lack of). So much variance in sports, too.

Of course, bookies generally know what they're doing (they have to, I guess with teams of statisticians and analysts haha), so you can lose money quickly if you keep going for impossible victories... that said, this season I've already had several decent wins... 1 big win affords me even >10 losing streaks! Newcastle beating City was 17/1. United drawing Burnley and parlaying 2 other expected 1.8/9 wins got me 28/1. It's not a strategy that can show results quickly though, and still needs discipline!

And I was ALMOST right about the value bet of Newcastle 5/1 too, but Wolves got their last-minute equaliser!

[Trofo]

Week 1 - Day 4

We have come low enough that it doesen't make sense to split the bank anymore. I am betting whole bank on two CL games today.

Man UTD to win @ 2.4
Man UTD is in good form and PSG is missing several key players (Neymar, Cavani, Meunier). Man Utd simply has to win this. I see this game as open one with probable score of 3:1 for Man UTD. I am also playing this one for big fiat stake as 1x @ 1.4 but that isn't part of this topic/test. I also wanted to play both to score & over 2.5 goals but decided against. Should be great game, can't wait for it to start.

Roma - Porto under 4 goals @ 1.35
Porto is missing two key strikers and this is only first leg. I am expecting a low scoring encounter. Probably only a goal or two in this one.

Total Stake: 0.003 | Total Odds: 3.24  


@buwaytress
Now you know one of my picks for today and you can possibly guess the other   Best of luck in CL pool.

[aoluain]

Bit of a bummer with the last two picks.

Does it matter what system you play with? In the end you have to pick
the winning side. Hopefully a system holds for something and your
picks turn to winners starting with UTD.

[buwaytress]

@Trofo: shame on the last game. I actually got both predictions right in our pool... though 2 others got exact scores, so they're smarter than even my wildest guess! Also won a Fenerbahce/Roma parlay at just over 5/1, but doesn't really mean much as I didn't take the extra risk last night.

Key players missing for PSG seemed only to give the backups time to shine but no one could foresee both Lingard and Martial injured before half time. I like Mata but he wasn't the right pick for this game, he couldn't contain the attacks and Sanchez just looked so lost. The goals in Rome all came in final 3rd too, totally missed all of them as I watched all the goals at Old Trafford.

[Lucius]

I did not watch the game Manchester UTD - PSG, but it seems that was very sharp and nervous match from both sides because 11 yellow cards and 1 red card are given in this game. It is maybe easy to say now, but Man UTD clear win would not be my main pick, for reason PSG is on other side. But I admit that I would bet on both to score, or more then 2 goals on game - so I'd definitely lose.

Like I've already written, such strategies are not something that can be long-term favorable, and they end with 0.00 in bank in most cases. But one postive thing is that now new strategy can be tested.

[aoluain]

I don't normally watch soccer but based on this thread I looked
in on the game a few times. I think the fact that PSG were missing
two big players in Neymar and Cavani missing it was worth a bet
on a MAN-UTD win.

I have read that Mbappe has scored 22 goals this season and is
more than Cavani or Neymar.

so time to move to a new system!

[Trofo]

Obviously I underestimated the quality of PSG side quite badly. That 1X in fiat hurt me much more than this bet which was part of strategy testing. I'll give it a bit of thought and start with new strategy after I get money from sig campaign. Should be Friday I believe. If you guys have some ideas, which could work or be interesting with stake of only 0.006 BTC, let me know.

[xWolfx]

Thank you for kind words.

Furthermore, I see the appeal of finding value bets and betting on underdogs. I will definitely try that for one week strategy. Maybe even next weak. I just have to find way to try to make it work with such small bank (self restricted for testing purposes).

No luck today. Paire had a breakout after loosing first set 7:6. I knew that it would end poorly after seeing the first set go to decider. Usually you want to see decider when betting over gems on match, but not in the case of "mentally unstable" players.

Oh yeah make sure to split your bets so you can bet a lot more times with the amount of money you are going to spend, that is definitely the best way to go to have fun yourself and possibly have more chances of winning. Since the more you do it the more possibilities of figuring out better strategies to try out in the future.

[aoluain]

Do you mean bet with smaller amounts over a wider spread of games in
order to create a better average rather than as the OP was doing spliting
the pot in half and betting on 1 or 2 games?

[imstillthebest]

Oh yeah make sure to split your bets so you can bet a lot more times with the amount of money you are going to spend, that is definitely the best way to go to have fun yourself and possibly have more chances of winning. Since the more you do it the more possibilities of figuring out better strategies to try out in the future.

i didnt know that gambling can also be diversify because at first i thought that diversifying funds was only possible for investing and on trading . the only problem is that the fee's you will spend will be double because most gambling sites are only built with single type of games , that is  why you need to deposit again your funds on other gambling websites .

[big_daddy]

What do you think about this bet today?

FC Viktoria Plzen - GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Draw No Bet - GNK Dinamo Zagreb
@1.81

[Trofo]

I think Dinamo has good chance of getting positive result today. I will probably play x2 or dinamo to score. I always pick regular win or double chance. I don't have good reason for it but I just don't like to see draw no bet on my ticket 

[big_daddy]

I think Dinamo has good chance of getting positive result today. I will probably play x2 or dinamo to score. I always pick regular win or double chance. I don't have good reason for it but I just don't like to see draw no bet on my ticket 

good game yesterday it was
from 1 to 2 first/second half, it's something smelly here, maybe el Maminjo has some fingers in this jar 

[Trofo]

I think Dinamo has good chance of getting positive result today. I will probably play x2 or dinamo to score. I always pick regular win or double chance. I don't have good reason for it but I just don't like to see draw no bet on my ticket 

good game yesterday it was
from 1 to 2 first/second half, it's something smelly here, maybe el Maminjo has some fingers in this jar 

Quite possible. Maybe he needs more money for some lawyers wages. If you guys don't know what we are talking about here, don't worry it is local Croatian reference.

[Trofo]

Week 2

This week I will play only single games with odds of at least 1.5. I will start with wagering 50% of the bank on every tip. If it goes well I will probably start putting 33% or 25%. Risk management is awful but I can't be bothered to place bet smaller then 0.003 BTC  

RB Leipzig to win @1,7
Studgart is in big problems and RB Leipzig should have quite an easy match here. H2H is also very match in favor of the visitors.

Hoffenheim-Hannover  both to score @1,7
Maybe I should have played both to score and over 2.5 goals here but decided on a little safer bet. Hoffenheim is playing very attacking football and I expect result like 3:1 here. They also conceded goals in almost every match this season.

[Ucy]

It is interesting to see that you are doing fine with your strategy.
Would you encourage other gamblers to try this out.
Hopefully it becomes something we coud copy someday?

[big_daddy]

Week 2

This week I will play only single games with odds of at least 1.5. I will start with wagering 50% of the bank on every tip. If it goes well I will probably start putting 33% or 25%. Risk management is awful but I can't be bothered to place bet smaller then 0.003 BTC  

RB Leipzig to win @1,7
Studgart is in big problems and RB Leipzig should have quite an easy match here. H2H is also very match in favor of the visitors.

Hoffenheim-Hannover  both to score @1,7
Maybe I should have played both to score and over 2.5 goals here but decided on a little safer bet. Hoffenheim is playing very attacking football and I expect result like 3:1 here. They also conceded goals in almost every match this season.

I will follow you on this one adding Rijeka - Hajduk both to score @1.85 (edit: using price boost @1.91)
Both teams has weak defense and on todays adriatic derby will be a max offensive on both sides

[Trofo]

RB Leipzig to win @1,7
Studgart is in big problems and RB Leipzig should have quite an easy match here. H2H is also very match in favor of the visitors.

Hoffenheim-Hannover  both to score @1,7
Maybe I should have played both to score and over 2.5 goals here but decided on a little safer bet. Hoffenheim is playing very attacking football and I expect result like 3:1 here. They also conceded goals in almost every match this season.

Yesterday I had one good and one bad tip which resulted in a current bank of 0.0051

Week 2 | Day 2

Valencia - Espanyol -> Valencia to win @ 1,8 | Stake 0.0026BTC
Valencia is playing much better in recent weeks and Espanyol is terrible in away games. This should be an easy win for home side.

Spal Ferara - Fiorentina -> Fiorentina to win @2,30 | Stake 0.0025BTC
This one is a little bit more risky but I expect Fiorentina to get all the points today. Usually I skip the early games because they are full of surprises. Let's hope this one will go as expected

I wanted also to play villareal - Sevilla -> draw but made that bet only in fiat so I am not showing it here