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Author Topic: [2019-02-15] Countdown begins for new BTC ETF  (Read 261 times)
setifien19
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February 15, 2019, 06:37:24 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2019, 06:49:33 PM by setifien19
 #1

Is it the end of that boring story
Quote
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it was beginning its review of a bitcoin ETF rule change proposal filed by NYSE Arca and Bitwise Asset Management on Feb. 11, and the proposal itself was published in the Federal Register on Feb. 15, meaning the regulator has 45 days to make its initial decision on whether to approve, reject or extend the proposal.
Full article on coindesk
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February 15, 2019, 07:06:09 PM
 #2

Is it the end of that boring story

end?

this story will only end on the day that there are many approved ETFs, and this can take many months or may take many years. Anyway there are still many years for bitcoin and surely in some year we will see some bitcoin ETF being approved. I just do not understand why these SEC guys take so many months to make a decision?

While the SEC has published the VanEck/SolidX proposal on its website, this one has yet to appear in the Federal Register, meaning the clock has not yet started for this ETF.

we will see a decision at the end of the year


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setifien19
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February 15, 2019, 07:28:54 PM
 #3

end?
Of extending it
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February 15, 2019, 10:07:50 PM
 #4

we will see a decision at the end of the year
Decision is already known. It's going to be wiped off the table. The SEC is just doing its thing as regulator to make it appear that they are giving it a fair shot and look into the application(s) without a bias against Bitcoin.

There is absolutely no way any of the ETF applicants can do anything to change the SECs mind this year. The problems they see and continue to delay and reject these ETFs for need years worth of development and growth.

I find it way more likely that we'll be seeing an asian ETF pop up, and IIRC, there was an article I read about an ETF in Japan that's now pending approval. We'll see where this goes, but I'm more optimistic here....

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February 16, 2019, 02:47:38 AM
 #5

I find it way more likely that we'll be seeing an asian ETF pop up, and IIRC, there was an article I read about an ETF in Japan that's now pending approval. We'll see where this goes, but I'm more optimistic here....

If we're talking about another country, Swiss already have it, don't they? Something called ETP from Amun. But this is not hyped so there's no effect on Bitcoin price (even though some famous news media cover it). I'm starting to get tired out from this narrative that's being repeated, might as well deny it for good, and we can forget it forever.

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February 16, 2019, 04:21:04 AM
 #6

we will see a decision at the end of the year
Decision is already known. It's going to be wiped off the table. The SEC is just doing its thing as regulator to make it appear that they are giving it a fair shot and look into the application(s) without a bias against Bitcoin.

There is absolutely no way any of the ETF applicants can do anything to change the SECs mind this year. The problems they see and continue to delay and reject these ETFs for need years worth of development and growth.

I find it way more likely that we'll be seeing an asian ETF pop up, and IIRC, there was an article I read about an ETF in Japan that's now pending approval. We'll see where this goes, but I'm more optimistic here....

I have the same feeling regarding this ETF thing. Though it is always good to hope for its eventual approval especially since it is still the USA market that is driving the whole Bitcoin ecosystem but we know that this may not be happening this year as the same situations and conditions which the SEC objected and got concerned on are still existing today. However, this is one thing that even the pessimists are hoping they can be wrong as the ETF can be a big help in pushing the Bitcoin agenda to as many institutions as possible.
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February 16, 2019, 06:11:45 AM
 #7

I find it way more likely that we'll be seeing an asian ETF pop up, and IIRC, there was an article I read about an ETF in Japan that's now pending approval. We'll see where this goes, but I'm more optimistic here....

that seems doubtful to me. the rumors about the FSA considering an ETF were false. they put those rumors to bed last month:

Quote
There is no such fact that we are considering approving ETFs which track crypto-assets at present. We are not currently considering approving them.

and unlike the CFTC, the FSA has also rejected the idea of bitcoin futures as well:

Quote
Japan’s financial regulator is in no hurry to follow the U.S. and enable the listing of futures contracts linked to cryptocurrencies, according to a senior Financial Services Agency official with direct knowledge of the matter.

The FSA has had internal discussions and currently sees no need for law changes required to allow such products, the official said, asking not to be identified in accordance with the agency’s policy.

didn't sweden have one of the first regulated markets with that ETN? maybe we'll see an ETF launch there.

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February 16, 2019, 12:07:15 PM
 #8

didn't sweden have one of the first regulated markets with that ETN? maybe we'll see an ETF launch there.

The silly thing is no one will give a shit if an ETF pops up anywhere other than America. For some reason people want their American Daddy to endorse them, not some joke continent like Europe or Asia.


There is absolutely no way any of the ETF applicants can do anything to change the SECs mind this year. The problems they see and continue to delay and reject these ETFs for need years worth of development and growth.

I wonder how much one of these applications costs. The applicant and the SEC are basically helpless. Neither can bring about the conditions to make one viable. That's down to thousands of factors beyond their control.
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February 16, 2019, 01:32:26 PM
 #9

Amen on that note of approval that all these people so want from Uncle Sam. It's really strange for me to still consider the conflicting logics of waiting for someone's approval to get something that's available out there, free to own and free to use.

But just to stoke the fires for stoking sake, and forgive me for not clicking that link as it doesn't seem related, but while everyone's waiting for Daddy's validation, isn't Crypto Mom's insistence that this "plain English" guide coming what everyone should be looking forward to first?

Because if that guidance also shows SEC exclusion, then maybe some eager rabbits can go forth and Bitcoin without Daddy's blessing.

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February 17, 2019, 06:45:36 AM
 #10



I really want to think that the SEC is like parents who says no to his child's outing but because they won't stop asking for it, they eventually say yes. I hope that it works the same with this ETF drama. But then again, their government is still in a total mess thanks to their wall-obsessed leader but who cares.
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February 17, 2019, 03:38:32 PM
 #11

~
I really want to think that the SEC is like parents ...

To me they are more like the scalded dog that fears cold water.

The SEC screwed up big time with Bernard Madoff's fraud scheme:


On December 10, 2008, Madoff's sons told authorities that their father had confessed to them that the asset management unit of his firm was a massive Ponzi scheme, and quoted him as saying that it was "one big lie". The following day, FBI agents arrested Madoff and charged him with one count of securities fraud. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had previously conducted multiple investigations into his business practices but had not uncovered the massive fraud.

And we are talking about the fraud that was estimated to be worth $64.8 billion. No wonder they are being overcautious now.

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February 17, 2019, 05:10:58 PM
 #12

With the above in mind we should ask an important question. If they failed to prevent the biggest ponzi scheme in history, is there a reason why this institution should still exist? They are obviously unable to assess the risk and properly audit companies, what is their purpose then? We could argue that the only thing they are doing is slowing down the progress, going against free market structures, making companies lose money and time because these applications aren't free. They cost them every time and a rejection means they will have to reapply and lose more money. Is the only purpose of the sec to delay everything as much as possible and earn money for the government? Or maybe to act as a deterrent? Watch out fraudsters we are here and there's a chance we'll see what you're doing and fine you! But if you're legit we may also fine you, we need nice cars and houses. They're like that bouncer at the gate that you have to bribe or confuse by making up a good story.
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February 17, 2019, 09:02:02 PM
 #13

With the above in mind we should ask an important question. If they failed to prevent the biggest ponzi scheme in history, is there a reason why this institution should still exist? They are obviously unable to assess the risk and properly audit companies, what is their purpose then?

i'm not really in favor of nanny state regulators, but i'll play devil's advocate for a moment.

it's important to point out that madoff didn't claim to run a hedge fund or any sort of public mutual fund. his clients deposited their money into brokerage accounts and he was directing the trades. these types of investors don't have SEC protection.

the SEC mostly responds to complaints, and complaints usually arise when investors lose money. madoff's investors weren't losing money and weren't complaining and no obvious legal violations were occurring. (not until it all came crashing down)

i don't see a legit comparison between that and public offerings that are under direct SEC oversight. i don't have a big problem with the SEC shutting frauds like this down: https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2018/lr24081.htm

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February 17, 2019, 09:52:11 PM
 #14

I really want to think that the SEC is like parents who says no to his child's outing but because they won't stop asking for it, they eventually say yes. I hope that it works the same with this ETF drama. But then again, their government is still in a total mess thanks to their wall-obsessed leader but who cares.

The SEC will say yes eventually, but the 'child' needs to grow and become mature enough to enter a world where the big boys stack their billions.

Every rejection/delay means a better understanding of what the SEC wants, and thus a major step forwards. People assume rejections/delays are bad, but it's actually the opposite, because if you know what they are looking for, and actively work to take away their doubts, you're closer to an approval than before.

People see the SEC as an evil entity, but it's not. They have a $4 trillion market to protect. Bitcoin is nothing. Why would they allow it to enter that market to begin with? They don't need a Bitcoin ETF, it's people here that want them to approve an ETF hoping that the price will pump hard.
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February 18, 2019, 06:22:19 AM
 #15

People see the SEC as an evil entity, but it's not. They have a $4 trillion market to protect. Bitcoin is nothing. Why would they allow it to enter that market to begin with? They don't need a Bitcoin ETF, it's people here that want them to approve an ETF hoping that the price will pump hard.

You're exactly correct, though nobody wants to hear this. A couple weeks back one of the SEC commissioners had this to say about their role and why it was important for them to take their time on making a decision:

"Getting the stamp of approval from the deepest and most liquid capital markets in the world is hard, and it should be.. Once we put the stamp of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission on an investment, once we make it available to everyday mom and pop investors, we are taking risks that Americans can get hurt…

The case that we had before us last year involving the Winklevoss trust, in my view, was not a difficult case… So there you had a situation where the risk for manipulation and for people getting hurt was enormous. The liquidity issues in the market were very serious… Eventually, do I think someone will satisfy the standards that we’ve laid out there? I hope so, yes, and I think so.” – Robert J Jackson, SEC Commissioner

https://www.rollcall.com/news/congress/the-future-holds-cryptocurrency-based-funds-says-secs-jackson

It does sound like they are optimistic on an ETF's eventual prospects, but when the approval date will happen, who knows...

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February 23, 2019, 06:50:33 AM
 #16

Is it the end of that boring story

end?

this story will only end on the day that there are many approved ETFs, and this can take many months or may take many years. Anyway there are still many years for bitcoin and surely in some year we will see some bitcoin ETF being approved. I just do not understand why these SEC guys take so many months to make a decision?

While the SEC has published the VanEck/SolidX proposal on its website, this one has yet to appear in the Federal Register, meaning the clock has not yet started for this ETF.

we will see a decision at the end of the year

As long as bitcoin ETF proposals are creating some hype in the bitcoin market,this story won't end.
I don't think that the SEC is going to approve any bitcoin ETF proposal ever.They need solid proofs that the crypto markets aren't manipulated by anyone(exchanges platforms,miners,whales).It's almost impossible to get such proof.


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Vaskiy
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February 23, 2019, 06:46:49 PM
 #17

Is it the end of that boring story

end?

this story will only end on the day that there are many approved ETFs, and this can take many months or may take many years. Anyway there are still many years for bitcoin and surely in some year we will see some bitcoin ETF being approved. I just do not understand why these SEC guys take so many months to make a decision?

While the SEC has published the VanEck/SolidX proposal on its website, this one has yet to appear in the Federal Register, meaning the clock has not yet started for this ETF.

we will see a decision at the end of the year

As long as bitcoin ETF proposals are creating some hype in the bitcoin market,this story won't end.
I don't think that the SEC is going to approve any bitcoin ETF proposal ever.They need solid proofs that the crypto markets aren't manipulated by anyone(exchanges platforms,miners,whales).It's almost impossible to get such proof.
Everytime this gets postponed, let's expect at least this time can get good decision on the ETF By SEC. As mentioned every time when the ETF comes into discussion automatically there will be some price manipulation in the market. This time too the same can happen, we need to be aware of the same and should react accordingly.


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February 23, 2019, 11:08:50 PM
 #18

As mentioned every time when the ETF comes into discussion automatically there will be some price manipulation in the market.
I don't think the market is still valuing an ETF anymore, because if it did, it would have reacted to VanEck and SolidX withdrawing their proposal, and I'm actually happy with that.

The market has been played long enough based on empty ETF speculation. It worked at the very beginning, but when even average joes start to notice movements based on ETF news, you can be sure that it stops working.

Fundamental growth is what we should be paying attention to, and not something like an ETF that won't be approved in the coming two or so years. The SEC has been more than clear. Accept it....

BSV is not the real Bcash. Bcash is the real Bcash.
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February 24, 2019, 03:26:22 AM
 #19

As mentioned every time when the ETF comes into discussion automatically there will be some price manipulation in the market.
I don't think the market is still valuing an ETF anymore, because if it did, it would have reacted to VanEck and SolidX withdrawing their proposal, and I'm actually happy with that.

I'm seeing this narrative still being used in crypto channel group though. I think most people have realized by now that ETF won't likely to happen so that event is not really unexpected. However, any positive progress about ETF will likely fuel another run of speculation (by positive = acceptance is near or something similar). I also think weak hands no longer watch the market, so probably there are more holders than traders.


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February 24, 2019, 08:56:29 AM
 #20

The one thing that still needs to be solved is the global manipulation of the price. How can these Bitcoin ETFs cancel out the global manipulation of the price? <Well, they will have to use local exchanges as their benchmark price indicator and simply ignore external manipulation>

The SEC used that as an excuse to deny all previous submissions <even though Gold and Silver prices are being manipulated globally by syndicates> I think it is OK for them, if they can identify these syndicates with their surveillance software on their platforms or to hide their actions.  Roll Eyes

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