Line in the sand {thread for price predictions}

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Ok I reset the poll again, this time the poll sentiment mismatched BTC markets.   Not many votes but those that were voting didnt expect a rise and definitely not of this size.    In fact we had bullish accumulation around upto 4000 and it broke upwards as we saw for a 20% gain.    This can fail many times before it breaks up, but this time it did manage it.
I mentioned the possibility but didnt predict it, it didnt fall back at all like I thought


I'll try not to close or reset the poll before April end unless we get another a break of range as I explain below.   Vote what happens next





Ok so this is daily bars, it dont get more basic then this really.    Closing out today April 3rd with a gain or green bar after such a rise is definitely bullish.   We'll have to watch if this occurs but its a good start
So the lines there are old Fib lines which should have some influence, yesterday the lower line formed some support to a retracting price and we rose back overnight.
I'm expecting this upper range after the break up to be between 4700 and 5200 range.   So bearish at top of range and more bullish with a stop loss at the lower line.

The yellow declining line at the bottom is the 200 Day average.   Still in decline gives us a heads up not to get carried away and a proper bull move takes time to fully form

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I guess more speed or something required ?

We got a big bar on April 2nd after staging above the 4000 area just beforehand, so it was being held back but also bullish at that time.

Poll was bullish so correct -




Right now I got another line in the sand to draw which is about 7800.    So trading below here would help break this upper formation in the price.    If we can hold 7800 as an area of support then it might keep trying to break upwards past 8200.
Looking for direction out of this box or range of recent prices.


I will reset the poll again for votes which way we break

 Closing out today April 3rd with a gain or green bar after such a rise is definitely bullish.   We'll have to watch if this occurs but its a good start

So here the april 2nd price held as bullish support

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Right now I got another line in the sand to draw which is about 7800.    So trading below here would help break this upper formation in the price.

So this happened pretty fast, as Asia trading opened we failed in efforts to break up and traded below 7800 before falling to 7200 area which is the trading objective for this support failing.   7200 is an old stronger trading line and is being bought.
Theres a great big pin going down to 6600 which closed the hour back above 7200 which is the important part for predicting future movement.   I dont have any immediate responce for what it will do next but likely market needs to digest this move and decide on this 7200 area short vs longer term.  Longer term pricing, daily and weekly bars are always stronger

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Heres a couple of charts thrown down fast just to see which way this move might split up or down.    Right this second we have a bounce from the 2 day average price, the blue line on this chart :




On a short time period, we are looking for a lower high to give benefit to the bearish take on this short term pullback -

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Still in the same area, still a bit of a drift downwards I think.    We're top of a channel and this chart speculates it will form some top for at least today with perhaps bottom of the channel a target



So thats 10,250 roughly.   Hardly a great fall and still part of this daily up and down.    The ideal bearish scenario is to lose this channel where as last low we see it caught the bottom and recovered.    Blue line 8 day, for a bet down we need stay below this on 4hr closing bar I think and obviously the daily trend is nearby.

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^^^ We're out of that channel, its no longer has us on an ascent upwards.   So we cruised sideways and just this moment are going down again.     

I'm here once again to post a simple chart with an idea, if we are to break this series of red bars as markets always tries to prove everyone wrong and will attempt to do so.   Here is the Line in the Sand, 10,200 or higher look again for some recovery or attempt upwards.   A retest of previous support would be a good natural move, Asia might get bullish who knows what happens

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I'm posting a 1 minute bar chart, this data is not always there later on so I like to have a record and this thread is for short term predictions so it seems to fit that I post it here:



The 50 day average is right around here just below the price but the trend shown in the picture is the small idea for a bullish recovery from September lows onwards.   We have remained sub 10k for a while but mostly imo negative sentiment and again today seen selling losing the 200 day average.    
   The line in the sand to watch the tide today is roughly these lows imo, if we can close lower and also lose 50 day average I think its a good indication of continuing weakness likely to repeat in the price.

I voted bullish because I dont judge there is enough to push past the trend,  that alone can mean we gain for a few days possibly.  Not outright bullish but up anyway

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Some resistance levels to measure progress in BTC till we hit Friday.   Its so close to the weekend now its not a bad guess that we are neutral to bullish till Monday, or sideways basically.    
   1hr bars, blue is 2 day average and orange is 8 day.    As we remain above the 8 day I go on history of price being quite bullish medium term while we keep that momentum & vice versa.