Mining Giant Bitmain Posts $500 Million Loss in IPO Financial Filing

[mich]

Mining Giant Bitmain Posts $500 Million Loss in IPO Financial Filing

https://www.coindesk.com/mining-giant-bitmain-posts-500-million-loss-in-ipo-financial-filing

Mining hardware giant Bitmain lost about $500 million in the third quarter of 2018 amid an overall bearish market for cryptocurrency, CoinDesk has learned.

The Beijing-based company recently provided an update on its financial results to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx), which is reviewing Bitmain’s application for an initial public offering (IPO) first filed in September.

The update showed Bitmain earned around $500 million in the first nine months of last year, on slightly over $3 billion of revenues, according to a source familiar with the situation. The filing, which is not public, does not break down the results by quarter.

However, Bitmain previously disclosed it had grossed profits of $1 billion in the first half of 2018. Subtracting that from a $500 million profit for the first nine months leaves it with a net loss of roughly $500 million for the third quarter.

The company had also previously reported $2.8 billion of revenues for the first half, so the $3 billion figure for the first nine months works out to third-quarter revenues of just about $200 million.

(Bitmain only needs to provide the nine-month figures at this stage under HKEx rules, which say that listing applicants can be no more than six months behind on reporting.)

These are the first precise figures to show the company’s reversal of fortune following the significant growth in revenues and profits over the past several years documented in the IPO application filed in late September.

Bitmain declined to comment for this article, citing its pending IPO application.

However, Bitmain had already signaled it had fallen on harder times with layoffs and office closures around the world beginning at the end of the last year that affected almost every unit of the company. Its main businesses are manufacturing mining equipment and operating mining farms and pools – activities that have broadly suffered from the slump in crypto prices.

Hit to portfolio

Further, the update provided to HKEx showed Bitmain’s crypto holdings dropped in value from more than $800 million as of June 30 to less than $700 million at the end of the third quarter, the source said. This decline of more than $100 million over three months reflected the overall drop in market prices over that period.

The company’s IPO application, filed in late September, indicated that Bitmain mainly held bitcoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, litecoin and dash, although it did not provide a breakdown of how much it held of each asset.

Since Sept. 30, all of the cryptos mentioned in that filing declined by more than 50 percent, according to CoinMarketCap.

In particular, the price of bitcoin cash, which forked off the original bitcoin network in 2017 with Bitmain’s support, declined by over 70 percent.

The nine-month financial update will not be revealed to the public unless Bitmain can proceed to a listing hearing with approvals from the HKEx before the six-month window closes on Mar. 26, the source said.

And it remains an open question whether that will happen, since, as previously reported, the HKEx is hesitant to approve applications from cryptocurrency mining equipment makers due to uncertainties about the sustainability of their profits.

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[romero121]

Loss is true, because the market of each and every cryptocurrency got affected with the bear market. Bitmain being the giant in the mining equipments production they also might have faced with the problem. Once the market turned bearish the demand for mining dropped big and the same might have reflected in their business revenue apart from the revenue they made through the market capitalization and IPO. As they are the sole supporters of bitcoin cash hard fork the market fall would've affected the revenue large scale.

[pooya87]

well keeping a dying shitcoin (ie. bcash) takes a lot of money. they need to throw man power, hashing power, money at exchanges for pumping purposes,... and it may not look it but all of these things cost a lot of money. and they have been doing it for over a year now and with bitcoin price declining their main source of revenue has also been decreasing so they didn't have as much money to cover those costs.

[Steamtyme]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it appears to be a bit misleading.

At the end of the 9 months are they not still ahead by 500 Million. So while it was a loss of 500 in that quarter they are still posting a profit up to that point. Something else to note about these numbers is, they were pushing a lot of R&D costs at the time. This can be seen with the launch and delivery of the S15 and T15 models that have been shipped out and delivered.

They have also recently announced the next chip design for their S17 and T17 models. These initial up front costs will hurt the bottom line everytime. All of this coupled with this

well keeping a dying shitcoin (ie. bcash) takes a lot of money.

Makes sense why they would have had a couple rough quarters.

[miningd]

I heard their IPO application was canceled, are they still doing this?

[darklus123]

I don't know if I should be happy about the news or not lol. It is because I am actually thinking that if the bearish market will continue then it will cause more damages to bitmain that they have to cure every single day. Then they will start to shutdown by that said this can be a great opportunity to small time miners as they might be able to step in to the holes that the bitmain are currently facing

[dothebeats]

I heard their IPO application was canceled, are they still doing this?

No news or official statements were released from Bitmain itself, so [/i]I think[/i] they might proceed with the IPO still even with the 'bad luck' they've faced on 2018.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it appears to be a bit misleading.

At the end of the 9 months are they not still ahead by 500 Million. So while it was a loss of 500 in that quarter they are still posting a profit up to that point. Something else to note about these numbers is, they were pushing a lot of R&D costs at the time. This can be seen with the launch and delivery of the S15 and T15 models that have been shipped out and delivered.

They have also recently announced the next chip design for their S17 and T17 models. These initial up front costs will hurt the bottom line everytime. All of this coupled with this

R&D really takes a huge price off of a company's profit, though once complete and applied on next products with improved capabilities and specifications, it pays off big time. This is true on every company on the tech industry and not just Bitmain, so I guess their newer line of miners are the reason for a huge chunk of losses on 2018, but see this getting turned around once the first batches are shipped.

[RamBahadur.Gurung]

well keeping a dying shitcoin (ie. bcash) takes a lot of money. they need to throw man power, hashing power, money at exchanges for pumping purposes,... and it may not look it but all of these things cost a lot of money. and they have been doing it for over a year now and with bitcoin price declining their main source of revenue has also been decreasing so they didn't have as much money to cover those costs.

Too early to blame everything on BCH. That coin is getting so insignificant nowadays..

[Steamtyme]

R&D really takes a huge price off of a company's profit, though once complete and applied on next products with improved capabilities and specifications, it pays off big time. This is true on every company on the tech industry and not just Bitmain, so I guess their newer line of miners are the reason for a huge chunk of losses on 2018, but see this getting turned around once the first batches are shipped.

Agreed, with their current Miner already back on top for efficiency they'll be raking in the BTC/Cash pretty quick. If this next Chip design hits specs as well, they'll be back to flooding the market. Obviously time will tell on the reliability of those machines but at least in the short term their investment in the design is over, and it's time to show some strong returns. It would be interesting to see how things look after Q1 2019, this way even if Q4 2018 was shit (likely with the BCH drama), they'll have some hardware sales helping offset this. I'm guessing this time they'll report right up to the day as opposed to leaving a quarter for the next time. That is if they want the IPO to gain traction.

Not to mention they pulled in a bunch of people with their re-branded cloud mining.

[stompix]

Maybe I'm reading this wrong but it appears to be a bit misleading.

At the end of the 9 months are they not still ahead by 500 Million. So while it was a loss of 500 in that quarter they are still posting a profit up to that point.

September ended with BTC at 6500 and Bshit at (lol, had to double check ) at 550$.
So if they did lose 500 in the 3rd probably it's way above 750 or even 1 billion for Q4.

What matters is the long run and if they did start loosing that much probably the entire profit has evaporated till now.

Something else to note about these numbers is, they were pushing a lot of R&D costs at the time. This can be seen with the launch and delivery of the S15 and T15 models that have been shipped out and delivered.

The s15 was announced in November and it took Bitmain more than two years to launch a new miner, so I really doubt they had spent most of the money on research and development just 4 months earlier.

Probably they had it ready for production even at the start of the year.

Second, I doubt the booming sales for it, the hash rate shows that prices have made a serious dent in miner sales (we're at August levels right now).

[e-coinomist]

The company’s IPO application, filed in late September, indicated that Bitmain mainly held bitcoin, bitcoin cash, ethereum, litecoin and dash, although it did not provide a breakdown of how much it held of each asset.

That's not true I've seen a breakdown of these asset somewhere, has been a huge discussion, but cannot locate website inside browser's history right now. Damn technology!

[bitfocus]

I thought Bitmain postponed their IPO! and the loss is a real big amount!

[BrewMaster]

I don't know if I should be happy about the news or not lol. It is because I am actually thinking that if the bearish market will continue then it will cause more damages to bitmain that they have to cure every single day. Then they will start to shutdown by that said this can be a great opportunity to small time miners as they might be able to step in to the holes that the bitmain are currently facing

Bitmain is not some investment company, portolio crap or something like that to be damaged because of "bear market"!!! Bitmain is selling mining equipment, has mining farm and mining pools and a couple of other ways of earning money and they don't exactly rely on market being bull or bear!

and they won't shut down! it is always the small miners with higher electricity cost that shut down and leave the room for big mining farms. and don't forget that bitmain is mainly a mining POOL that these small miners are connecting to.

[btyco]

That is their own fault for supporting a pointless fork to create 2 shitcoins. Always stick to bitcoin, that is not just for investors but miners as well. Bitmain found out the hard way

[BitBustah]

This really isn't a huge deal, look at all the mega companies that have posted huge losses only to become stronger.  Amazon went years without having a profit and now they are one of the biggest companies in the world.  I know people make fun of bitmain for going heavy into Bitcoin Cash but they are still the dominant force in this business.

[X7]

It's a sad state of affairs, to be honest. One of the largest mining operations on the planet is now in this unfortunate position. The social game theory elements which have played out have shown bitcoin to be quite resistant though.

Even under the harshest conditions, with one of its largest players securing the network turning somewhat rogue. It still going strong no downtime.

[kxz1498]

Bitmain can blame themselves for trying to get BCH to the next level. They sold off 70% of their BTC stock just to stay above water and held the BCH. Thank you bitmain for this crypto winter.

[prasad87]

Bitmain can blame themselves for trying to get BCH to the next level. They sold off 70% of their BTC stock just to stay above water and held the BCH. Thank you bitmain for this crypto winter.

You can be an angry zealot all you want, but Jihan's support for Bitcoin as originally intended by the whitepaper has nothing to do with Bitmain's losses. Bitmain is a mining company, nobody is buying miners during a bear market and their personal mining operations are also significantly less profitable. They were overleveraged on crypto - that's the main issue. But cutting down staff should be sufficient.

Here's some more news - https://chainbulletin.com/bitmain-announces-its-new-and-improved-7nm-mining-chip/
TL;DR - old mining machines will become obsolete, and Bitmain will make enormous profits again this year - since the new miners will be 100% their creation, the competition is pathetic and Bitmain whether we like it or not (I don't) is a monopoly in a huge niche.

[Artemis3]

With the announcement of the S17/T17, and the sales from current S15/T15, if they stick to selling machines and stop with the nonsense (Ie. BCH) which is apparently their intention by moving Jihan Wu out of his position, they could recover and then be in a better position to try the IPO again.

They saw some competition from the likes of MicroBT, whom I'm still waiting to see if they deliver their promise of a 7nm asic.

There is also their involvement in computing asics for AI applications, not sure where that will lead to.

And they also made their own SoC

Bitmain SoC Support Coming To Linux 5.1 - Sophon ARMv8 + RISC-V Chip For Deep Learning

[franky1]

first of all profits and losses sheets of revenue do not declare unsold investments
they would however declare income from goods services / sold shares/sold investments

so numbers of revenue has nothing to do with coins HELD. but more so to do with fiat generated through mining/selling asics and costs of doing such

so talking about coin HOLDINGS is irrelevant

also. seems the article cant do maths

"However, Bitmain previously disclosed it had grossed profits of $1 billion in the first half of 2018. Subtracting that from a $500 million profit for the first nine months leaves it with a net loss of roughly $500 million for the third quarter."

2018 q1: +500 selling s9
2018 q2: +500 selling s9
2018 q3:  -500 designing s15
= still + 500

i would say with selling s9's in q4 and s15 in q4 the q4 would be a + number too

so article and forums topic seems to want to subtly imply a loss (subliminally hinting/worded) as an overall loss
but.. where reality is they just used SOME income of q1-2,  to spend on outgoings in q3 and still had money left over

think about it.
imagine you get $500 one week. $500 second week. then you have to buy groceries and rent the third week. would you go to your spouse and say "i declare a $500 loss." or would you say "i stil have $500 after 3 weeks"

as for the s17 next range of asics.
in q2-3 i was expecting that q4 to show high hashrate rise. but yea doing some maths on the mining cost of s15 vs s9 ther wasnt much between them so when they sold off most their s9 and replaced them with only a moderate amount of s15 that didnt show a large hashrate rise. butif these s17's are going to show a significant difference compared to s9's then maybe 2019's future will show sharper hashrate rise upon release of s17. as it appears that people were more interested in s9's in 2018.

[pooya87]

well keeping a dying shitcoin (ie. bcash) takes a lot of money. they need to throw man power, hashing power, money at exchanges for pumping purposes,... and it may not look it but all of these things cost a lot of money. and they have been doing it for over a year now and with bitcoin price declining their main source of revenue has also been decreasing so they didn't have as much money to cover those costs.

Too early to blame everything on BCH. That coin is getting so insignificant nowadays..

i am not blaming anything on BCH, i am saying those who created BCH and spend money on keeping it alive and pumping it lost a lot of money.
and why do you think it is  too early? it has already bee a year and a half of wasting money which is more than enough time to destroy any company let alone a company like bitmain which has been balls deep in BCH.

[Steamtyme]

~snipped my quoted text~

September ended with BTC at 6500 and Bshit at (lol, had to double check ) at 550$.
So if they did lose 500 in the 3rd probably it's way above 750 or even 1 billion for Q4.
What matters is the long run and if they did start loosing that much probably the entire profit has evaporated till now.

~snipped my quoted text~

The s15 was announced in November and it took Bitmain more than two years to launch a new miner, so I really doubt they had spent most of the money on research and development just 4 months earlier.
Probably they had it ready for production even at the start of the year.
Second, I doubt the booming sales for it, the hash rate shows that prices have made a serious dent in miner sales (we're at August levels right now).

As far as their losses for Q4 they could still afford to hemorage another 500 Million and break even on the year. If they ended the year at break even with 2 efficient chip designs that blow the competition out of the water they're starting ahead in 2019. We'll just have to wait and see in their next filing how Q4 went. While I don't doubt they were struggling with liquidity for a bit, I think there sales team cut the right deals/discounts at the right time to being an influx of cash in.

It may have been 2 years to launch a completely new design, but they did continuously tweak/rebrand that previous model. Also they sat at the top of efficiency for that chip size as far as they were concerned so no need to redesign what's working. It was really only early 2018 that any of the hardware companies started pushing for 7nm designs, the S15/T15 chips themselves were announced in September, so that Q3 could have been a lot of the first run costs. Here we are just as few months later and they have another chip launch.

I do think hardware sales still picked up for them, while people weren't expanding and growing as fast they were still upgrading to newer more efficient models while prices are low. Hashrate is a hard indicator in the hardware sales, as a lot of people/mines tried to hold on as long as they could last year in hopes the market turn was around the corner.

also. seems the article cant do maths

think about it.
imagine you get $500 one week. $500 second week. then you have to buy groceries and rent the third week. would you go to your spouse and say "i declare a $500 loss." or would you say "i stil have $500 after 3 weeks"

Okay glad I wasn't the only one reading it that way.  Love the example

[franky1]

Okay glad I wasn't the only one reading it that way.  Love the example

coindesk is owned by DCG. which funds blockstream and other companies which have a certain idea of how bitcoin should be.

another thing about DCG is they own BTCC..
and yet here is the funny.
BTCC has virtually disappeared. but you dont hear news about it. big BTCC names like samson mow. shifted from BTCC to blockstream and coindesk has been very quiet about the strip down and shut down of BTCC.
bobby lee is now concentrating on the convention/conference organisation circuit that ar usualy dirctly or indirectly funded by coindesk(dcg)

so that might help explain why you were reading a coindesk article that was trying to influence readers to suggest bitmain was in trouble, when it wasnt. as there has been ongoing social drama between the two

anyway
bitmain continued to make s15, and now funding to make s17. if they were in trouble they would have gone and 'done a BTCC'. but instead bitmain are just carrying on doing what they do each year.

in my eyes coindesk and DCG are butt-hurt that they invested into the wrong pool company

[stompix]

~

As far as their losses for Q4 they could still afford to hemorage another 500 Million and break even on the year. If they ended the year at break even with 2 efficient chip designs that blow the competition out of the water they're starting ahead in 2019. We'll just have to wait and see in their next filing how Q4 went. While I don't doubt they were struggling with liquidity for a bit, I think there sales team cut the right deals/discounts at the right time to being an influx of cash in.

It may have been 2 years to launch a completely new design, but they did continuously tweak/rebrand that previous model. Also they sat at the top of efficiency for that chip size as far as they were concerned so no need to redesign what's working. It was really only early 2018 that any of the hardware companies started pushing for 7nm designs, the S15/T15 chips themselves were announced in September, so that Q3 could have been a lot of the first run costs. Here we are just as few months later and they have another chip launch.

And exactly the launch of the BM1397 that is going to "outclass" as they say the not even 6 month old BM1391 is one reason I think it's not the R&D costs alone that made a 500 million hole or if indeed that's the case prepare for another larger one.
If the costs for the 1391 were to blame for the deficit in Q3 the newly launched 1397 will also leave its mark in the Q4 as it would make simply no sense to develop them both in Q3, wouldn't it?

And...the 500 is losses, not costs for R&D so this has not only taken in all the profits from other activities but it has dug a hole, and now they are most likely going to experience lower profits from mining (probably only half) and around the same development costs.

Would the same miners that stayed away from the s9 or the competition (the m10 for example) in September buy now when profits are at an all-time low and drive up income from mining gear sales?
Not really seeing anything like in the hashrate....

[r1s2g3]

For so gigant companies 500 millions is really little money, they even dont care about this lose, I think.

Every company is concerned with loss and bitmain should be no exception.
Their BCH drama hit themselves as well as the price of BTC and hashrate of BTC. It will be interesting to see how their power efficient new asic miner will turn the game for them as well as btc price. 

[Steamtyme]

And exactly the launch of the BM1397 that is going to "outclass" as they say the not even 6 month old BM1391 is one reason I think it's not the R&D costs alone that made a 500 million hole or if indeed that's the case prepare for another larger one.
If the costs for the 1391 were to blame for the deficit in Q3 the newly launched 1397 will also leave its mark in the Q4 as it would make simply no sense to develop them both in Q3, wouldn't it?

It definitely could. Hard to say how they went about trying to achive their most efficient design. They may have ran the R&D simultaneously, or started on the next design immediately after the last. All I'm saying with this is that it would have been a huge chunk of upfront cost, and a very likely factor in the difference between profits and loss between quarters last year.

And...the 500 is losses, not costs for R&D so this has not only taken in all the profits from other activities but it has dug a hole, and now they are most likely going to experience lower profits from mining (probably only half) and around the same development costs.

You right, everything slowed last year slowly and steadily as far as hardware and mining profits. What is surprising is that all the way into October apart from 1 Diff adjustment it was rising. This had to take a tole on them as much as everyone else; but they still were pulling in a good amount of revenue from their pools and cloud mining business. They are well diversified to earn any way they can off people. For whatever reason people still point miners there for daily payouts, and rent hash off them, it just wasn't enough to overcome their total expenses; whatever they were.

Would the same miners that stayed away from the s9 or the competition (the m10 for example) in September buy now when profits are at an all-time low and drive up income from mining gear sales?
Not really seeing anything like in the hashrate....

They would I think. Hashrate follows the market so we have been in a pretty steady decline for a while, this has made mining more profitable than it was in September of last year. So all of this gear is looking good right now, so much so that some competitors had begun to raise prices. The big boost to Bitmain at the moment is that they sent out a ton of coupons hoping to push a massive amount of hardware sales starting Feb 26. assuming BTC stays below 4400$ (can't recall for sure). They also have BitDeer cloud mining running hard since December, they have different tiers for what Gen miner you run and charge the maintenance fee based on that. This gives them the ability to possibly earn off the maintenance fee by actually using the efficient gear and charging for the inefficient.


When it comes down to it it's hard to know how the actually account for their held/stored coins; or when they dump some to raise liquid capital. They may be in no trouble at all and simply pull from a reserve when they need the cash. Like I said before it will be interesting to see what their next couple fillings look like.


While poking around it looks like Canaan decided to try for an IPO in NY, they let the HK application lapse. There was next to no information about it from the little I read but that's another one to watch in the coming months.

[stompix]

~.

You right, everything slowed last year slowly and steadily as far as hardware and mining profits. What is surprising is that all the way into October apart from 1 Diff adjustment it was rising.

This shows just how productive bitcoin become after the jump and the lack of miners on the market.
ETH managed to reach a stability point even with the insane increase after about 6 months of GPUs shortage, for BTC it was still profitable even with jack up prices (I remember something over 1200 for an s9???)

They would I think. Hashrate follows the market so we have been in a pretty steady decline for a while, this has made mining more profitable than it was in September of last year. So all of this gear is looking good right now, so much so that some competitors had begun to raise prices. The big boost to Bitmain at the moment is that they sent out a ton of coupons hoping to push a massive amount of hardware sales starting Feb 26. assuming BTC stays below 4400$ (can't recall for sure).

I'm keeping an eye on the whole mining stuff from the side but I simply can't make the final push to go into mining again.
I'm getting energy at 6c/kwh at home, I might be able to get enough for 3 or 4 s15 at my parent's farm for 4c/kwh and on top no Trump tax, lols.

But still, when I look at those 500 days of ROI, taking into account a miner is worth ~1600 so if it goes bum...that's half a BTC thrown away. And if you think big, there are a lot of other stuff that can go wrong, costs, people, contracts headaches after headaches.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think that bitmain is going to go kaput in the next year, just that their model of gluing some components on a motherboard mining with it 3 months then selling it for 5 times the price and making millions with no bumps it's over.

[franky1]

Hashrate follows the market

actually. the market follows the hashrate.

take 2013
asics hit the market in october of 2013... market rises

take 2018
next gen asics announced.. so selling off of old s9's dirt cheap in october. less hashpower. means those left get biggr slice of th reward pie. meaning they profit more meaning they sell more.. thus novembers price decline

..
what you need to separate is the mindsets of certain people.
smart mining groups plan a year in advance. they dont react to price drama. they contract their electrical costs in, a year ahead with calculated predictable rises included. they buy /make asics at set schedules. they sell coins OTC based on contracted amounts/prices. thus market prices doesnt affect business much(though they can take advantage of market prices using excess coins)

its the small home/basement/garage hobbiests that react to markets. by 'pool jumping' depending on most profitable coin of the day

if you look at the pools as a whole and compare the market prices. you see the smart pools thats hashrate averages have a smoother change.. the dumb pools usually have no smooth change and just all over the place.
this is why BTCC didnt last. they were market followers. based mainly due to them being management of home/hobbiests

[Wind_FURY]

Okay glad I wasn't the only one reading it that way.  Love the example

coindesk is owned by DCG. which funds blockstream and other companies which have a certain idea of how bitcoin should be.

another thing about DCG is they own BTCC..
and yet here is the funny.
BTCC has virtually disappeared. but you dont hear news about it. big BTCC names like samson mow. shifted from BTCC to blockstream and coindesk has been very quiet about the strip down and shut down of BTCC.
bobby lee is now concentrating on the convention/conference organisation circuit that ar usualy dirctly or indirectly funded by coindesk(dcg)

That's irrelevant. The Digital Currency Group has invested in many cryptocurrency companies, that sometimes they're in competition with one another. BTCC has shut down, so what? There are others.

so that might help explain why you were reading a coindesk article that was trying to influence readers to suggest bitmain was in trouble, when it wasnt. as there has been ongoing social drama between the two

anyway
bitmain continued to make s15, and now funding to make s17. if they were in trouble they would have gone and 'done a BTCC'. but instead bitmain are just carrying on doing what they do each year.

in my eyes coindesk and DCG are butt-hurt that they invested into the wrong pool company

Then why doesn't Bitmain file libel charges if the news is not based on facts?

Plus wait for the 4th quarter financial report.

[stompix]

Hashrate follows the market

actually. the market follows the hashrate.

I can totally see the correlation!

That's irrelevant. The Digital Currency Group has invested in many cryptocurrency companies, that sometimes they're in competition with one another. BTCC has shut down, so what? There are others.

How old is that picture?

BtcJam? Hashplex?

[franky1]

Hashrate follows the market

actually. the market follows the hashrate.

I can totally see the correlation!

UNDERLYING VALUE is not "market price"
when YOU see the market price all you are seeing is the speculative bubbles that sit above the water line of a bath tub. your not seeing the underlying water line

how ever during low speculation/bubble periods where you get to see the waterline beneath. its much clearer to see the mining:market dynamics at play.


take the OCTOBER'13 hashrate rise, and THEN the market rise
take the OCTOBR'18 hashrate curve down, and THEN the market dip
there are multiple other examples over the years. but if you just want to look at the market speculative prices.. then ill save the explanation for another time when you might b ready to go beyond the basics

[stompix]

take the OCTOBER'13 hashrate rise, and THEN the market rise
take the OCTOBR'18 hashrate curve down, and THEN the market dip
there are multiple other examples over the years. but if you just want to look at the market speculative prices.. then ill save the explanation for another time when you might b ready to go beyond the basics

Let's take two arbitrary single value points and let's draw a final conclusion, ignoring a two-year continuous graph that screams otherwise.
Totally legit!

Besides, stop pulling things out of you know what!

Let's analyze the October 2018 scenario:
Between October 04 and 18 the hashrate dropped 3.65%, the price went up 0.68%.

I'm having trouble understanding who is following who when things are going in the opposite way.  

Also interesting how you managed to find as an example exactly the beginning of the hashwar between shitcash and fakeshitcash when massive amounts of hashing power were diverted to those chains. You really have an obsession with those

[DeathAngel]

I don’t think anybody will have sympathy for them. They got into bed with Ver, sold loads of bitcoin to support their shitcoin. They deserve everything they get.

[bdbabiak77]

They are responsible for the wounding of crypto in many ways. I doubt their death would be mourned.

[franky1]

take the OCTOBER'13 hashrate rise, and THEN the market rise
take the OCTOBR'18 hashrate curve down, and THEN the market dip
there are multiple other examples over the years. but if you just want to look at the market speculative prices.. then ill save the explanation for another time when you might b ready to go beyond the basics

Let's take two arbitrary single value points and let's draw a final conclusion, ignoring a two-year continuous graph that screams otherwise.
Totally legit!

Besides, stop pulling things out of you know what!

Let's analyze the October 2018 scenario:
Between October 04 and 18 the hashrate dropped 3.65%, the price went up 0.68%.

I'm having trouble understanding who is following who when things are going in the opposite way.  

Also interesting how you managed to find as an example exactly the beginning of the hashwar between shitcash and fakeshitcash when massive amounts of hashing power were diverted to those chains. You really have an obsession with those

firstly your thinking hashrate of day X affects day X of market top price.  if you knew the basics you would know thats never gonna be the case anyway
secondly your only looking at the market from the point of view of the top prices. your not even thinking about underline value support. and it seems like something you cant get your head around.
thirdly your not actually taking the numbers and drawing your own charts.
fourthly you are not thinking about cause/reaction

i tried to give you 2 small examples and then see if ud bother doing some actual research (shows keen interest) but instead you just wanna take a 2 second glance and then form an opinion. meaning the point aint that important to you so not much point in me spending time spoon feeding you about the mining:market dynamics and the layers of value/speculation.

but it aint just me that knows of the mining:markt dynamics. it even goes back as far as hal finney talking about it in the early days of bitcoin.
and even further back in regards to other assets.
her is a little hint. cost of creation(ull learn things lik the summer 2018 mining cost:bitcoin market underlying bottomline value)

and by the way. the altcoin drama is just that. altcoin... and drama. if you bothered to check and do some resarch you would find that the altcoin drama is a later story line used as the weak excuse after thought to PRETEND to be cause of X event. purely to drum up fake fame by altcoin dramatists pretending they are influencers. when in reality thy are late to the party gatcrashers who then just want to take selfies to pretend they had a great time organising the party. rather than the reality of them being uninvited gatecrashers that are insignificant

any way. there was no massive ramp up of hashpower january2018, followed by a hashpower correction in the spring

[Wind_FURY]

That's irrelevant. The Digital Currency Group has invested in many cryptocurrency companies, that sometimes they're in competition with one another. BTCC has shut down, so what? There are others.

How old is that picture?

BtcJam? Hashplex?

It must be very old. It's showing BTCC which has already shutdown.

Given that context, the Digital Currency Group are just investing in everything that they believe has potential, like any other VC.

But franky1 is making a narrative that DCG = the Bilderberg Group.

[stompix]

<>
any way. there was no massive ramp up of hashpower january2018, followed by a hashpower correction in the spring

franky1, I keep telling you, stay away from discussion mining cause every time you end up in a bad position

2018-01-02  1931136454487
2018-01-24  2227847638503
2018-02-01  2603077300218

Yeah, 34% in a month is by no way ramp up.../s

And that sping correction, I guess that 100% increase till May was another "correction".

~

It must be very old. It's showing BTCC which has already shutdown.
Given that context, the Digital Currency Group are just investing in everything that they believe has potential, like any other VC.

Better stop posting it, not because is not irrelevant or totally outdated but I see some names there that trigger really bad memories, and probably I'm not the only one.  

[franky1]

<>
any way. there was no massive ramp up of hashpower january2018, followed by a hashpower correction in the spring

franky1, I keep telling you, stay away from discussion mining cause every time you end up in a bad position

2018-01-02  1931136454487
2018-01-24  2227847638503
2018-02-01  2603077300218

Yeah, 34% in a month is by no way ramp up.../s

And that sping correction, I guess that 100% increase till May was another "correction".

10%-15% a fortnight is not 'massive ramp up..
also the market ramped up from $5k-$20k in winter (400%)
mining didnt ramp up 400%

stompix. is was you that said hashpower followed market
so if market was
 /\
/  \_/\_/\
             \
then mining would be
   /|
_/ |__/|_/|
                \
you would see mining volitile up and down when market ups and downs. and for instance when market goes down in november. the mining would go down in november december(reactionary)
however mining has been a smooth curve up. and when mining went down in OCTOBER(BEFORE)..the market went down in november(AFTER)..

anyway. it might be worth you looking into mining costs and think about mining:market.
where by if its cheaper to mine people mine, if its cheaper to market they will market. people will always be thinking about the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin.

it might be worth you looking not at ATH market. but bottomline support/resistance. and you start to notice something.
it might be worth you investigating/researching the OTC/contract mining contracts and other things

but yea if you think looking at 2 charts where mining IS NOT following market proves your point that mining is following market.. makes no sense.

hint. dont try being a trend anal. especially when your thoughts of mining follows markets is false.. and even when you use to charts to try proving it. the charts themselves dont show a trend which you try to imply (they look nothing alike)
try technical analysis of costs of acquisition(mining:market cost)

but have a nice day

[stompix]

10%-15% a fortnight is not 'massive ramp up..

Yeah, 10%-15% isn't a big deal...
If we talk about how much nonsense you can add to a post or how many chocolate bars you can eat in an afternoon but...

That 15% in 14 days was about 3 million TH, or 200000 S9 added.
Percentage is relevant only if we talk about the same initial point, when the global hashrate will reach 100 yottahash a 1% increase would mean we would have to build a hundred nuclear reactors for that, but...meh..it's just 1%, we have seen better.

it might be worth you looking not at ATH market. but bottomline support/resistance. and you start to notice something.

It might be worth when you stop looking at a single point and follow at least one year or even better two years graph.

We had a bear market in 2014, hashrate went up
We have a bear market since 2017, hashrate is still going up

And this went on for years!!! not for a few days chosen randomly so they can fit your theory.

[franky1]

It might be worth when you stop looking at a single point and follow at least one year or even better two years graph.

We had a bear market in 2014, hashrate went up
We have a bear market since 2017, hashrate is still going up

And this went on for years!!! not for a few days chosen randomly so they can fit your theory.

your making my point for me.

YOU said that mining reacts to markets... you just disproved yourself with your own words

i have not just taken a single point.. i took 365 points of hashrate per year
calulated the mining cost

i took the points of market price BOTTOMLINES
and charted it out

and done so for multiple years. i also looked at relevant real world events that affect things.
it was YOU that just looked at 2 charts which were not based on cheapest cost of acquisition
it was you that displayed those 2 basic charts which didnt show a pattern of mining following market.
yet then you insinuated it did based on 2 charts that show the exact opposite

my chart data based on cost of acquisition went back for years with thousands of data points and calculations.

i only mentioned 2 examples just to avoid waffling. because if u were interested in researching and learning more about it. then your free to. no point in throwing out loads of data if all you wanna do is just pok the bear for social drama.

but hey
ill say it again. try to calculate the cost of mining and the bottomline price support (not the daily high market)

anyway.. thanks for your sideline off topic poke which as usual from certain people turns things away from proving a network point into just trying to poke at franky(boring pointless replies to evade actually staying ontopic)

but getting back to the topic

big pools (not basement miners) are smart to pre-plan their expansion. they even pre-contract their OTC coin sales, their costs, etc.so they are not reliant on the market price and dont follow it.

[Wind_FURY]

If price follows hashing power, then who in the market gives assurances of buy support if the price crashing, and there are no buyers? The miners? I believe they are both distinct and separate, but it's more logical that the hashing power adjusts depending on the price.

[franky1]

If price follows hashing power, then who in the market gives assurances of buy support if the price crashing, and there are no buyers? The miners? I believe they are both distinct and separate, but it's more logical that the hashing power adjusts depending on the price.

but the charts do not show hashing power adjust to prices

if miners were in majority market trending. then the hashrate chart would look exactly like a shadow of the market. a offset copy of the market. a silhouette of a mountainous landscape.
but its not. its a curve. where events can be explained by non market events

secondly. when you are looking at the prices you are not understanding the full picture. you are just seeing the daily adjusted high-mid range.

if you think of bitcoins price as being made up of layers. where by the bottomline (prices people refuse to sell below) as the bottomline support. and anything above is the speculative/random/volitile
like waves above the tideline
you start to see the bigger picture

so if you take the cheapest method of mining. and take the cheapest price of a coin on the market over a period (bottomline support)
and you take the ultimate understanding that people try to find the cheapest way to obtain a coin. which is the mining:market dynamic

and you chart it out. and you will see that its the mining that moves the market

i can understand the flawed 'logic' that basement dwelling hobby miners would follow the markets. as thier costs are higher and they are more 'paycheck to paycheck' mindset of wanting/needing to cashout ASAP.

hobby miners are not looking to hoard bitcoin. they are looking to 'pool hop' to altcoins just to make fiat profit. so yea their mindset is not on securing the bitcoin network, not on growing the bitcoin network. they are happy to jump off the network if a more profitable altcoin is the +% profit of the day coin.
so see the logic not of the FEW hobby miners that pool hop hourly/daily which the CURVE OF HASHPOWER shows and proves the hobby emotional market followers do not impact

but think about it from the logic of the true BITCOIN asic FARMS that make up the majority who are playing a different game and its the majority(farms) that are not playing the same game as hobby miners that are making up the progressive planned CURVES.

again if miners were in majority market trending. then the hashrate chart would look exactly like a silhouette of the market. a silhouette of a mountainous landscape.
but its not. its a curve. where events can be explained by non market events

[Wind_FURY]

Thanks for that kind of reply franky1. Not because I believe you are right, but because you are trying to make a real debate absent of personal attacks.

But on the topic, it still is debatable who's right or who's wrong. More exploration required in my opinion.

[pushups44]

The continuing losses of Bitmain are welcome news insofar as that keeps the company from continuing to build up a monopoly in the cryptocurrency space and thus dissuades investors from funding this entity. We need as much decentralization as possible, especially in mining.

[franky1]

Thanks for that kind of reply franky1. Not because I believe you are right, but because you are trying to make a real debate absent of personal attacks.

But on the topic, it still is debatable who's right or who's wrong. More exploration required in my opinion.

psychology: people want to find the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin.. meaning the 2 main methods of getting coin.. market:mining have a link

maturing: mined coins are not spendable instantly. so its not like mining can spend coins as soon as a market changed. so miners had to plan ahead atleast a day minimum their cost/profit. (100confirm maturing). so miners didnt just react to daily changes, they preplanned for the future

math: markets were speculative and volatile and usually have a certain amount of bubbles above the waterline (margin/profit/speculation/premium/extra) so markets PRICE are near always more than the cheapest mining costs. so the mindset was more so on mining to get coin cheap. and sell the coin for profit later to get fiat. thus mining price was mor important upfront and market react to it later

logistics: mining cant just react instantly by the minute. so its not like if a market jumped 50% today that there would be enough ASICS to react.

planning: mining is reliant on electric, and electric companies supplying farms cant just ramp up electricity capacity in seconds without risk of local brownouts. so smart asic farms preplan expansion, upgrades and switch-overs MONTHS ahead

personally i was hoping to see the october s9 sell off/s15 'testing'. to cause a increase in hashrate. thus give positive market pressure for november-february. but it seems they not only didnt want to sell off s9's to replace them 1-for-2 (1 s15 for every 2 s9 to stay at same hashrate).. but they let the hashrate slip.. thus hashrate went down when 'beta testing' the s15's thus not giving support for a stable price to stay above the (pre october) $5800 bottomline support

so with ASIC companies gathering loads of coins from selling S9's
so with ASIC companies gathering coins from mining
did not hit the market the same day as they were mined/gathered. (check blockchain data of coin rewards. they were not sold instantly at 100 confirms)
thus the markets didnt react until november

[cryptokingdom]

I believe mining was very profiting before the bear market started. Every business have it ups and down. Bitmain is the mining Giant that I know will recovery all the loses when bull run starts.

[Wind_FURY]

Ok franky1, thanks. I will look more closely into this topic, ask some miners' opinions, and see what information I get. Honestly, I'm not quite convinced yet, but my mind is open.

On the original topic, I told you Bitmain will have losses on the 3rd quarter. Wait for the 4th quarter's filing.

[philipma1957]

Thanks for that kind of reply franky1. Not because I believe you are right, but because you are trying to make a real debate absent of personal attacks.

But on the topic, it still is debatable who's right or who's wrong. More exploration required in my opinion.

psychology: people want to find the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin.. meaning the 2 main methods of getting coin.. market:mining have a link

maturing: mined coins are not spendable instantly. so its not like mining can spend coins as soon as a market changed. so miners had to plan ahead atleast a day minimum their cost/profit. (100confirm maturing). so miners didnt just react to daily changes, they preplanned for the future

math: markets were speculative and volatile and usually have a certain amount of bubbles above the waterline (margin/profit/speculation/premium/extra) so markets PRICE are near always more than the cheapest mining costs. so the mindset was more so on mining to get coin cheap. and sell the coin for profit later to get fiat. thus mining price was mor important upfront and market react to it later

logistics: mining cant just react instantly by the minute. so its not like if a market jumped 50% today that there would be enough ASICS to react.

planning: mining is reliant on electric, and electric companies supplying farms cant just ramp up electricity capacity in seconds without risk of local brownouts. so smart asic farms preplan expansion, upgrades and switch-overs MONTHS ahead

personally i was hoping to see the october s9 sell off/s15 'testing'. to cause a increase in hashrate. thus give positive market pressure for november-february. but it seems they not only didnt want to sell off s9's to replace them 1-for-2 (1 s15 for every 2 s9 to stay at same hashrate).. but they let the hashrate slip.. thus hashrate went down when 'beta testing' the s15's thus not giving support for a stable price to stay above the (pre october) $5800 bottomline support

so with ASIC companies gathering loads of coins from selling S9's
so with ASIC companies gathering coins from mining
did not hit the market the same day as they were mined/gathered. (check blockchain data of coin rewards. they were not sold instantly at 100 confirms)
thus the markets didnt react until november

The bold is less true then it was last year.
The red is still true.

So if coins jump to 5000 mining will do a jump and fast.
This is due to easy clocking on :

bitmain gear
M10 gear
Innosilicon gear.

I have left the world on garage miner. Ie 2x 30 amp 240 circuits.

I added one solar array with buy solar and we were up to 30 kwatt
We now added a second solar array and are at 85 kwatts and hour.
We are in talks to add 115kwatts bringing us to 200kwatts. At zero to four cents cost per kwatt.

So if prices jump we can clock up out s15s m10s t15s and s9s in under 1 hour.

But we would exceed out low cost solar price of 0-4 cents.   Use grid power of 11-16 cents.

Many big farms have 2-4 cent contracts and can exceed the contract of say 5 mega watts but do so at a higher cost.
Many big farms still have the s9 and I know of some with 1000 s9s on lowest setting doing 800 watts a unit. If prices jump they could go to the 1200 watt setting in under an hour.

But at a higher power cost since they exceed the contract of say 5 megawatts.

I am on a shit iPad. Give me a minute to link a graph.

[mercedes321]

i hate bitmain in bear and love in abull,...the loss was real i believe, but in a bull guys 1L3 was being traded at 6K eur in glorry days, can u imagine, and now it was finished with 20 buks at their cloud site, similar S9,...and it happen within a year-1.5Y... and we are going out from accumulation phase guys, ROI when BTC is 8.5k, can be much less then 500 days.

[pixie85]

well keeping a dying shitcoin (ie. bcash) takes a lot of money. they need to throw man power, hashing power, money at exchanges for pumping purposes,... and it may not look it but all of these things cost a lot of money. and they have been doing it for over a year now and with bitcoin price declining their main source of revenue has also been decreasing so they didn't have as much money to cover those costs.

Too early to blame everything on BCH. That coin is getting so insignificant nowadays..

It pumped from 300 to 4000 dollars at one point. Somebody had to lead that pump and it probably was Bitmain that switched to mine it at that time. This was combined with Roger's smart move to call the original bitcoin "core" on his site and make their wallet the default when you visited bitcoin.com. They spent a lot of money and did a lot of dirty moves to pump BCH and in the end lost a lot of money. I'd be happy if Bitmain went bankrupt because of it but they won't. They will still be here next year.

[Wind_FURY]

Thanks for that kind of reply franky1. Not because I believe you are right, but because you are trying to make a real debate absent of personal attacks.

But on the topic, it still is debatable who's right or who's wrong. More exploration required in my opinion.

psychology: people want to find the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin.. meaning the 2 main methods of getting coin.. market:mining have a link

maturing: mined coins are not spendable instantly. so its not like mining can spend coins as soon as a market changed. so miners had to plan ahead atleast a day minimum their cost/profit. (100confirm maturing). so miners didnt just react to daily changes, they preplanned for the future

math: markets were speculative and volatile and usually have a certain amount of bubbles above the waterline (margin/profit/speculation/premium/extra) so markets PRICE are near always more than the cheapest mining costs. so the mindset was more so on mining to get coin cheap. and sell the coin for profit later to get fiat. thus mining price was mor important upfront and market react to it later

logistics: mining cant just react instantly by the minute. so its not like if a market jumped 50% today that there would be enough ASICS to react.

planning: mining is reliant on electric, and electric companies supplying farms cant just ramp up electricity capacity in seconds without risk of local brownouts. so smart asic farms preplan expansion, upgrades and switch-overs MONTHS ahead

personally i was hoping to see the october s9 sell off/s15 'testing'. to cause a increase in hashrate. thus give positive market pressure for november-february. but it seems they not only didnt want to sell off s9's to replace them 1-for-2 (1 s15 for every 2 s9 to stay at same hashrate).. but they let the hashrate slip.. thus hashrate went down when 'beta testing' the s15's thus not giving support for a stable price to stay above the (pre october) $5800 bottomline support

so with ASIC companies gathering loads of coins from selling S9's
so with ASIC companies gathering coins from mining
did not hit the market the same day as they were mined/gathered. (check blockchain data of coin rewards. they were not sold instantly at 100 confirms)
thus the markets didnt react until november

The bold is less true then it was last year.
The red is still true.

So if coins jump to 5000 mining will do a jump and fast.
This is due to easy clocking on :

bitmain gear
M10 gear
Innosilicon gear.

I have left the world on garage miner. Ie 2x 30 amp 240 circuits.

I added one solar array with buy solar and we were up to 30 kwatt
We now added a second solar array and are at 85 kwatts and hour.
We are in talks to add 115kwatts bringing us to 200kwatts. At zero to four cents cost per kwatt.

So if prices jump we can clock up out s15s m10s t15s and s9s in under 1 hour.

But we would exceed out low cost solar price of 0-4 cents.   Use grid power of 11-16 cents.

Many big farms have 2-4 cent contracts and can exceed the contract of say 5 mega watts but do so at a higher cost.
Many big farms still have the s9 and I know of some with 1000 s9s on lowest setting doing 800 watts a unit. If prices jump they could go to the 1200 watt setting in under an hour.

But at a higher power cost since they exceed the contract of say 5 megawatts.

I am on a shit iPad. Give me a minute to link a graph.

Bump.

franky1, your reply to philipma1957? I still can't see how the miners' costs can support, and dictate, a market as especially volatile as Bitcoin.

Do the the miners buy Bitcoins too, in durations of price lower than mining costs?

[Msworld83]

The market is currently in bad shape which brought about the decline in all coin including the king refer to as btc which also affect the mining of the coin , and that alone gives low turnout for the price which might also see dump in some time soon as the waves still look bearish but it will be nice to hold their reward now and enjoy the price when the bull finally return.

[franky1]

Bump.

franky1, your reply to philipma1957? I still can't see how the miners' costs can support, and dictate, a market as especially volatile as Bitcoin.

Do the the miners buy Bitcoins too, in durations of price lower than mining costs?

the mining:market dynamic plays out that hardly ever is bottomline mining costs higher than bottomline market price.

firstly you have to realise is the market is layered

imagine it like the sea
sea level is underlying (bottomline) then above that is the waves of speculation.. market price only see's and marks the height of the waves and you really have to find the lowest height(monthly low) to find the real water level

imagine it like a bathtub with bubblebath water
water level is underlying (bottomline) then above that is the bubbles of speculation.. market price only see's and marks the height of the bubbles and you really have to find the lowest height(monthly low) to find the real water level

for instance winter 2017/spring-summer-autumn 2018 was ~$5800 bottomline value even though the price was always above that(nov 2017-nov2018)

mining is not volatile, it does not follow market.
though the hashrates of the network are not equal, its not due to a individual pool jumping up and down but different pools have different hashrates so when different pools win a block, their hashrate shows as a higher or lower number than their competitors last block solution
but none of the pools threw on 3x hash power during november 2017-february 2018.
its easy to see that pools didnt react to the $20k price jump....
...
what goes on is smart pools OTC their coins at a % above thier costs. so say costs were $5800 for most of 2018(q1,2,3,) they were selling their coin for a lil extra via OTC contracts.

it is then the buyers of thos coins that when they see the $20k number in winter 2017-spring 2018 would sell coins for profit which reacted to correct the market down

but they wont want to sell below $6k.. and the miners that had spare coins after the OTC trades wont wont to sell below the $5800 of those first free quarters. so thats why the prices never broke the $5800 barrier

as time approached q4 of 2018 (certain pools ready for testing the next gen asics) they were selling off the old asics cheap giving them more coin(free coin basically). but instead of swapping 2s9 for 1s15 (my expectation) which would have kept hashrates up. or even done a 1for 1 to raise hashrate(my hope) thy decided not to shoot selves in foot like 2013 by rushing to fast, and instead they played a different strategy. they wanted to keep hashrates low so that they were not fighting themselves too fast.
the dumb miners couldnt afford to keep running at a higher cost. so some dropped out(btcc for instance) thus leaving smart pools with a bigger slice(more blocks/more rewards) which meant even at lower network hash the pools could continue and able to fulfill their OTC commitments

pools are less caring about market prices. and more about % share of hash/block creation. because as long as they can stay around say for instance for antpool around the 13% area they are always getting around the 17-19 blocks a day which is the kind of commitment area they plan to stick around

yes antpool has the resources to ramp up and take higher % but thats just going to hurt them in regards to difficulty jumps. so reacting to market price thinking ramping up hashpower during high prices might seem good. it just going to shoot them in foot 2 weeks later, which when corrections in market happen, shoots their other foot too crippling them.

however forgetting about market price(highs)... when pools go through their plan of upping their hashrate and by the time it plays out via th OTC and then the otc buyers from that sell at profit on markets and the buyers on the market buy that, and set thier acquisition costs that third layer of buyer/seller wont sell for less. thus the markets settle to find a new slightly higher bottomline value. and it plays out slowly weeks/months. not minute/hourly.

again major mining farms do not react to hourly/daily price fluctuations (only the small basement /hobbiests that pool/coin jump do, but they are insignificant in the big picture)  

in short..
back in from 2013-2018 i been watching the hashrate and doing math on mining cost to know the bottomline costs thus knew the rough bottomline support the prices would fall to. (sorry no way to predict the spculative highs)
in august 2018 with the announcement of next gen asics my personal thoughts/hopes were another hashrate jump which would cause the bottomline support to go up. in october however i realised the pools were changing tactic by not ramping up hashrate when swapping old for new. so by the time november came i knew not to expect price rise due to a rise of support but instead a price reduction
now im just waiting for some hashrate rises that remain above a certain level for weeks to play out as the bottom line value support rise.
i dont play the games of trying to predict next ATH price. as thats just speculative and temporary drama. i prefer concentrating on knowing the lows and seeing when the lows may progress forward, as thats not volatile, not speculative and not temporary. so im hoping for the s17 or a big influx of s15 buy ups in the mining community as so far this last november2018-feb2019 has seemed to be a slow pickup of hashrate. (it's been a boring period)

[Wind_FURY]

The posts, and explanations get more and more confusing. Hahaha.

phillipma1957 made a good illustration of how miners react quickly after large price moves, but I fail to see how miners increase hashing power on the network, and make the market price follow, unless there's a pre-planned boost from market players. But I will do more reading, and asking.

vapourminer, you merited franky1's post. Can you ELI5?

[franky1]

ok so lets look at that chart of december the 18th to february 14th

i can only see a 20% change throughout the entire period (38exa to 45exa)
i wouldnt call 20% over 2 month "massive"

funny fact.
i went and checked on the last 12 months of changes.
and the average difficulty change per fortnight was 5-6%. so 5 difficulty jumps in th december-march period of that graph. sems to be ontrack with normal progress
 

also the 2 circled elements. 42exa-44exa  was not dramatic. but even so. if you follow the red arrow.back and read the red writing
it seems that it says how the market was being manipulated because "we had hashpower spike THEN price spike"
what it doesnt say is "market then hashrate"

to me, trying to keep things realistic. i feel there is over use of "massive" and "spikes". and its just normal daily fluctuation drama. thus i wouldnt even try using as ammo to prove my point even if the proof was wrote in red writing.

but hey. im more about the sustainable support that growth can be found. not the temporary drama certain people are looking for hence i didnt put any emphasis on the charts, until windfury after 2 posts poked at them.. but didnt actually read the chart

anyway.
the mining:market dynamic has ben a known fact since 2010. even the likes of hal finney pointed it out. as have many over the last few years.

but it must be mad clear its not about using as a crystal ball to be a trend anal for the next ATH speculative price drama.
its just a good measuring stick guide for the long term lows to know the baseline that prices should settle to once all speculation subsides, thus giving a good support area for what is deemed as the value of bitcoin people are reluctant to sell below as thats where it really cuts into majorities(serious peoples) costs if they were foolish to sell below

[franky1]

as for how if there is a hash power rise. windfury cant see that it can cause the markt to follow.. its easy.

when hashpower rises. it costs more to mine bitcoin.
so people decide its not as cheap to buy coin OTC from miners. and instead buy on the market.

buying on the market=price rise
eli-5 enough?

[kelz1]

The result of promoting a shitcoin fork is never going to be positive. However, miners are coming back for the halving so things may turn around

[stompix]

ok so lets look at that chart of december the 18th to february 14th

i can only see a 20% change throughout the entire period (38exa to 45exa)
i wouldnt call 20% over 2 month "massive"

This is because you stick to those percentages that show only one side of the story.
I told you that those tiny increases mean sometimes half a million s9 worth half a billion in investment getting put online.

When the second and third guy started mining bitcoin the difficulty went up 81% but that means just some cpu power, worth a few hundred bucks at most. Make a chart that shows difficulty spikes by correlating them with the most efficient miner prices required for that jump, and you will see how astronomically high the jump that you can't call massive is in reality.

One of my friends told me this once:

Germany had a 3% GDP growth, but Guinea had a 47%, you know how they've managed this?
...
Their goat had triplets

The posts, and explanations get more and more confusing. Hahaha.

phillipma1957 made a good illustration of how miners react quickly after large price moves, but I fail to see how miners increase hashing power on the network, and make the market price follow, unless there's a pre-planned boost from market players. But I will do more reading, and asking.

Because phillipma1957 is a miner, franky1 is not.  

[philipma1957]

Thanks for that kind of reply franky1. Not because I believe you are right, but because you are trying to make a real debate absent of personal attacks.

But on the topic, it still is debatable who's right or who's wrong. More exploration required in my opinion.

psychology: people want to find the cheapest way to obtain bitcoin.. meaning the 2 main methods of getting coin.. market:mining have a link

maturing: mined coins are not spendable instantly. so its not like mining can spend coins as soon as a market changed. so miners had to plan ahead atleast a day minimum their cost/profit. (100confirm maturing). so miners didnt just react to daily changes, they preplanned for the future

math: markets were speculative and volatile and usually have a certain amount of bubbles above the waterline (margin/profit/speculation/premium/extra) so markets PRICE are near always more than the cheapest mining costs. so the mindset was more so on mining to get coin cheap. and sell the coin for profit later to get fiat. thus mining price was mor important upfront and market react to it later

logistics: mining cant just react instantly by the minute. so its not like if a market jumped 50% today that there would be enough ASICS to react.

planning: mining is reliant on electric, and electric companies supplying farms cant just ramp up electricity capacity in seconds without risk of local brownouts. so smart asic farms preplan expansion, upgrades and switch-overs MONTHS ahead

personally i was hoping to see the october s9 sell off/s15 'testing'. to cause a increase in hashrate. thus give positive market pressure for november-february. but it seems they not only didnt want to sell off s9's to replace them 1-for-2 (1 s15 for every 2 s9 to stay at same hashrate).. but they let the hashrate slip.. thus hashrate went down when 'beta testing' the s15's thus not giving support for a stable price to stay above the (pre october) $5800 bottomline support

so with ASIC companies gathering loads of coins from selling S9's
so with ASIC companies gathering coins from mining
did not hit the market the same day as they were mined/gathered. (check blockchain data of coin rewards. they were not sold instantly at 100 confirms)
thus the markets didnt react until november

The bold is less true then it was last year.
The red is still true.

So if coins jump to 5000 mining will do a jump and fast.
This is due to easy clocking on :

bitmain gear
M10 gear
Innosilicon gear.

I have left the world on garage miner. Ie 2x 30 amp 240 circuits.

I added one solar array with buy solar and we were up to 30 kwatt
We now added a second solar array and are at 85 kwatts and hour.
We are in talks to add 115kwatts bringing us to 200kwatts. At zero to four cents cost per kwatt.

So if prices jump we can clock up out s15s m10s t15s and s9s in under 1 hour.

But we would exceed out low cost solar price of 0-4 cents.   Use grid power of 11-16 cents.

Many big farms have 2-4 cent contracts and can exceed the contract of say 5 mega watts but do so at a higher cost.
Many big farms still have the s9 and I know of some with 1000 s9s on lowest setting doing 800 watts a unit. If prices jump they could go to the 1200 watt setting in under an hour.

But at a higher power cost since they exceed the contract of say 5 megawatts.

I am on a shit iPad. Give me a minute to link a graph.

Bump.

franky1, your reply to philipma1957? I still can't see how the miners' costs can support, and dictate, a market as especially volatile as Bitcoin.

Do the the miners buy Bitcoins too, in durations of price lower than mining costs?

 Lots of  us miners have 2-4 cent power and turn a profit.

with gear like the s9  which can do  800 watts and 10 th  1200 watts and 13th  1350 watts and 14th

we can  move the entire network   20-40% higher over night.

I suspect  that a strong bull run from 3800 to 5000 stable would move the network to  50 billion gh  from the current 42 billion gh.


the real question is if price does 5000 then 8000 stable  will network go from 42 to 50 to 57(all time high) to 84 matching the price jump to the hash jump  in 2 or 3 or more jumps.

I think the miners can go to 65 billion gh  really fast maybe 70 billion.  as I think  that number is what is on hand.

At that point the old cycle of the gear is too damn costly to get would start again.
I think we have more idle gear then we have ever had.
I think bitmain halted sales issued coupons to make miners hunger for gear.

Over the next 3-6 weeks  all the s9's will move to low power spots.  and better gear will sell easier.
I wonder how much  hashpower in terms of s17 would sell if coins were at 9k vs 4k.

[Wind_FURY]

as for how if there is a hash power rise. windfury cant see that it can cause the markt to follow.. its easy.

when hashpower rises. it costs more to mine bitcoin.
so people decide its not as cheap to buy coin OTC from miners. and instead buy on the market.

buying on the market=price rise
eli-5 enough?

Wouldn't that be adding to more risk? I don't believe adding more hash power automatically causes price to increase. Price would depend on demand on Bitcoins.

Wouldn't it be better for miners to observe what the market does before doing anything? 

Or are the miners anticipating what the markets would do? Because that would make "price follow hashing power" have more sense.

[franky1]

as for how if there is a hash power rise. windfury cant see that it can cause the markt to follow.. its easy.

when hashpower rises. it costs more to mine bitcoin.
so people decide its not as cheap to buy coin OTC from miners. and instead buy on the market.

buying on the market=price rise
eli-5 enough?

Wouldn't that be adding to more risk? I don't believe adding more hash power automatically causes price to increase. Price would depend on demand on Bitcoins.

Wouldn't it be better for miners to observe what the market does before doing anything?  

Or are the miners anticipating what the markets would do? Because that would make "price follow hashing power" have more sense.

your not reading are you.

PRICE is not the BOTTOMLINE VALUE

again imagine the sea.. sealevel(bottomline value).. waves(active price)

 /\       /\
/  \/\/\/  \
mining does not indicate the diagonal lines.
mining does indicate what level the horizontal line of bottomline value lays
the price is speculative . goes up and down, its temporary drama. .. so forget ever trying to use mining to guess the next spike. forget trying to predict the next ATH

use the mining market dynamic to know when the next LOW is the ultimate LOW value. the line which gets built up OVER TIME where the community eventually come to a point where even the last person willing to sell decides enough is enough its not worth selling for less. that LOW is the BOTTOMLINE value

the first 3 quarters of 2018 the BOTTOMLINE VALUE was $5800.. even when the PRICE was volatile
no one in the first 3 quarters of 2018 sold below $5800..

in august/september i was HOPING that the 4th quarter would see a rise in hashrate which would cause a snowball effect where peoples costs go up so people would decide never to sell below $6k, and thus put pressure on the PRICE to steadily rise as a consequence(stay above $6k and not hit $5800 again))

but the hashrate went down in october. pools closed(BTCC) so the remaining pools got an extra large slice (more coin share) pools were also selling off old gear(more coin) so they became happier to then sell below the $5800 as a consequence of less hashpower less costs thus able to profit at a lower sell price.

again hashpower WILL NEVER be a indicator for the next ATH spike. so please stop trying to find a link between the hashrate and the hourly/daily PRICE vs mining.
look at the LOW over a period of time

if you do mining costs calculations.. and by this i mean the CHEAPEST mining costs. you will find the COST point of acquisition meaning you then know logically the lowest price people are rationally happy to sell down to before saying its not profitable to sell right now. and you will have your LOW bottomline market value.
if you chart it out. you will see (DYOR)

[Wind_FURY]

as for how if there is a hash power rise. windfury cant see that it can cause the markt to follow.. its easy.

when hashpower rises. it costs more to mine bitcoin.
so people decide its not as cheap to buy coin OTC from miners. and instead buy on the market.

buying on the market=price rise
eli-5 enough?

Wouldn't that be adding to more risk? I don't believe adding more hash power automatically causes price to increase. Price would depend on demand on Bitcoins.

Wouldn't it be better for miners to observe what the market does before doing anything?  

Or are the miners anticipating what the markets would do? Because that would make "price follow hashing power" have more sense.

your not reading are you.

I am, and I might be wasting my time.

PRICE is not the BOTTOMLINE VALUE

again imagine the sea.. sealevel(bottomline value).. waves(active price)

 /\       /\
/  \/\/\/  \
mining does not indicate the diagonal lines.
mining does indicate what level the horizontal line of bottomline value lays
the price is speculative . goes up and down, its temporary drama. .. so forget ever trying to use mining to guess the next spike. forget trying to predict the next ATH

use the mining market dynamic to know when the next LOW is the ultimate LOW value. the line which gets built up OVER TIME where the community eventually come to a point where even the last person willing to sell decides enough is enough its not worth selling for less. that LOW is the BOTTOMLINE value

the first 3 quarters of 2018 the BOTTOMLINE VALUE was $5800.. even when the PRICE was volatile
no one in the first 3 quarters of 2018 sold below $5800..

in august/september i was HOPING that the 4th quarter would see a rise in hashrate which would cause a snowball effect where peoples costs go up so people would decide never to sell below $6k, and thus put pressure on the PRICE to steadily rise as a consequence(stay above $6k and not hit $5800 again))

but the hashrate went down in october. pools closed(BTCC) so the remaining pools got an extra large slice (more coin share) pools were also selling off old gear(more coin) so they became happier to then sell below the $5800 as a consequence of less hashpower less costs thus able to profit at a lower sell price.

again hashpower WILL NEVER be a indicator for the next ATH spike. so please stop trying to find a link between the hashrate and the hourly/daily PRICE vs mining.
look at the LOW over a period of time

if you do mining costs calculations.. and by this i mean the CHEAPEST mining costs. you will find the COST point of acquisition meaning you then know logically the lowest price people are rationally happy to sell down to before saying its not profitable to sell right now. and you will have your LOW bottomline market value.
if you chart it out. you will see (DYOR)

Because all that is your own interpretation of what has happened between the price, and the hash power. I can see the connection, but it's maybe the wrong interpretation. I still believe that miners add or reduce hash power as a reaction, or sometimes as an anticipation of that the market would do.

phillipma1957 has already illustrated that some miners, probably the most profitable and the most efficient react, and that Bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly.

[franky1]

phillipma1957 has already illustrated that some miners, probably the most profitable and the most efficient react, and that Bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly.

you have your opinion but you need research

funny part is if you are going to quote a source for your opinion, atleast do your checks and research
here;

'we had a hash spike then a price spike'
HASH... THEN... PRICE

also you say
"bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly"

1. prices move by the minute. miners cannot PHYSICALLY in the real world get ASIC deliveries, change electric supply contracts, set new rigs up by the minute

2. the 'reactors' or the ones that pool jump to the most profitable coins of the minute. as that chart shows (42exa-44exa) are not even 5% of the network. these are the HOBBY miners.. they pool hop. they cannot stay on bitcoin and provide sustainable support for bottomline value as they are not the cheapest/smartest set of miners. that is why they pool hop.

3. even logic will tell you when someone makes something. they are reluctant to sell it at a loss. smart miners have the mindset of this
a. is bitcoin going to die and become nothing tomorrow - no
b. is there a point at which it become foolish and futile to sell at a loss, rather than hold - yes
c. at point X we will not sell at a loss
where point X then becomes the bottomline value where the market shows everyone has decided they wont sell below.. that is th bitcoin markets LOW

so ignore the speculative temporary unpredictable waves/bubble price of the ups/ATH. concentrate on the periodic LOW and you will see when hashpower rises the low(underlying value) rises.

and please stop trying to assume things. DYOR
the mining: market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH. or the next PRICE of the next minute/day
the mining:market dynamic plays out to show the underlying VALUE which when there is more hashrate the underlying value (bottomline support) goes up. (3.c.)

[Wind_FURY]

phillipma1957 has already illustrated that some miners, probably the most profitable and the most efficient react, and that Bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly.

you have your opinion but you need research

I admit, this is true.

funny part is if you are going to quote a source for your opinion, atleast do your checks and research
here;

'we had a hash spike then a price spike'
HASH... THEN... PRICE

also you say
"bitcoin mining is a business of who reacts quickly"

But I also said above that they also might be anticipating what the market would do, and then act.

1. prices move by the minute. miners cannot PHYSICALLY in the real world get ASIC deliveries, change electric supply contracts, set new rigs up by the minute


2. the 'reactors' or the ones that pool jump to the most profitable coins of the minute. as that chart shows (42exa-44exa) are not even 5% of the network. these are the HOBBY miners.. they pool hop. they cannot stay on bitcoin and provide sustainable support for bottomline value as they are not the cheapest/smartest set of miners. that is why they pool hop.

3. even logic will tell you when someone makes something. they are reluctant to sell it at a loss. smart miners have the mindset of this
a. is bitcoin going to die and become nothing tomorrow - no
b. is there a point at which it become foolish and futile to sell at a loss, rather than hold - yes
c. at point X we will not sell at a loss
where point X then becomes the bottomline value where the market shows everyone has decided they wont sell below.. that is th bitcoin markets LOW

phillipma1957 already said some miners, which I assume to the more profitable ones, can as he illustrated above.

so ignore the speculative temporary unpredictable waves/bubble price of the ups/ATH. concentrate on the periodic LOW and you will see when hashpower rises the low(underlying value) rises.

Ok. I will get back to it.

[franky1]

1. prices move by the minute. miners cannot PHYSICALLY in the real world get ASIC deliveries, change electric supply contracts, set new rigs up by the minute

phillipma1957 already said some miners, which I assume to the more profitable ones, can as he illustrated above.

that illustration of 5% changes. is not big farms magically able to make parcel delivery companies deliver same day. and get electricians booked to change fuseboxes sameday.

what your actually seeing is the 5% of mining community that are NOT profitable moving away from bitcoin when not profitable to pool hop to altcoins and then move back to bitcoin.
these pool hopping hobbiests are as the illustrations shows only 5%. which is standard daily variance and not something that indicates strong underlying value support growth. but more of the same speculative up and down.

strong underlying support value that sticks around and makes people not want to sell below a certain value, where the value is higher than previous. is not something reactive of markets. its deeper than you think

[Viceroy]

I think Q1 2019 will be even worse for them.
The 'bear' market slows down the development of mining. And mining is becoming less popular now. But who will buy their equipment now? Mining makes a profit is not so good. This can be profitable if you have very cheap electricity. But this is not available in all countries.
It seems to me they will return all losses as soon as the market recovers only.

[mercedes321]

they sold 500 unit in few days, the demand is there.

[Wind_FURY]

1. prices move by the minute. miners cannot PHYSICALLY in the real world get ASIC deliveries, change electric supply contracts, set new rigs up by the minute

phillipma1957 already said some miners, which I assume to the more profitable ones, can as he illustrated above.

that illustration of 5% changes. is not big farms magically able to make parcel delivery companies deliver same day. and get electricians booked to change fuseboxes sameday.

what your actually seeing is the 5% of mining community that are NOT profitable moving away from bitcoin when not profitable to pool hop to altcoins and then move back to bitcoin.
these pool hopping hobbiests are as the illustrations shows only 5%. which is standard daily variance and not something that indicates strong underlying value support growth. but more of the same speculative up and down.

strong underlying support value that sticks around and makes people not want to sell below a certain value, where the value is higher than previous. is not something reactive of markets. its deeper than you think

This is what I have come to discover from our debates about this topic. That miners are also akin to speculators. They either react to the market, or anticipate where the market is going, because simply adding hardware and increasing their expenses would be dangerous to their business.

When the market is flat, but hashing power increases, it's the miners showing their cards on what the market might do.

[franky1]

When the market is flat, but hashing power increases, it's the miners showing their cards on what the market might do.

your starting to grasp it
when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates grow and continue to be at a new high, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because less people are going to sell for less as it now costs more.

when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates drop and continue to be at a new low, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because more people are going to sell for less as it now costs less.

again nothing to do with the volatile PRICE or daily movements. but the periodic LOW known as the bottom line support

the hourly/daily market fluctuations are speculative and not predictable and the small amount (few percent) of hobby miners that dont make up the underlying support do react, but this is as i and even the phillipma1957 illustration shows as a small percentage

but this mining:market dynamic has always ben in play and even rcognised by people like hal finney back in 2010
its also why PoW will have more underlying value than PoS as PoS has no underlying cost thus their is not much to support it

anyway we meandred off topic a bit too much. but hopefully you are now grasping the basics of it
a PoS coin has way more chance of dropping to zero than a PoW just for the point of being a zero cost underlying value.
PoS coins rely mor on speculation, hype and utility to give 'faith' value(speculation) to its price

[Wind_FURY]

When the market is flat, but hashing power increases, it's the miners showing their cards on what the market might do.

your starting to grasp it
when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates grow and continue to be at a new high, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because less people are going to sell for less as it now costs more.

Yes, the miners' anticipation of the market's growth. I believe when one mining farm starts adding hashing power, some of the rest add some too, to not be "left behind" and to maximize profit from the next bull market.

when the market is flat (at its low) you start to see the correlation that when hashrates drop and continue to be at a new low, and you calculate the cost of mining. you then see the markets latest LOW move because more people are going to sell for less as it now costs less.

A sign that the miners' are reacting to the bearish market.

again nothing to do with the volatile PRICE or daily movements. but the periodic LOW known as the bottom line support

Right, but more to do with miners' projection of what direction Bitcoin might go. They are also speculators.

anyway we meandred off topic a bit too much. but hopefully you are now grasping the basics of it
a PoS coin has way more chance of dropping to zero than a PoW just for the point of being a zero cost underlying value.
PoS coins rely mor on speculation, hype and utility to give 'faith' value(speculation) to its price

I told you Bitmain will post a loss.

Let me ask you something. Would Bitmain be in a better situation today if Jihan Wu wasn't scammed by Roger Ver into fully supporting, and holding a large amount of Bitcoin Cash?

[Beerwizzard]

use the mining market dynamic to know when the next LOW is the ultimate LOW value. the line which gets built up OVER TIME where the community eventually come to a point where even the last person willing to sell decides enough is enough its not worth selling for less. that LOW is the BOTTOMLINE value

What should stop miners from selling their BTC under the mining costs?
People are investing into ICOs, buying stocks and any other assets and qualified investors are able to see when the price is totally going down and they are ready to fix their losses by selling their assets. The same logic may be applied to crypto market.

[stompix]

the mining: market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH. or the next PRICE of the next minute/day
the mining:market dynamic plays out to show the underlying VALUE which when there is more hashrate the underlying value (bottomline support) goes up. (3.c.)

How is this theory of your working out right now?
The price is up 100 %, the difficulty is up 10% in 3 months and the current period is showing a -1% retrace.

Hilarious, it didn't even take two months to prove your theory is, how do I say it nicely, completely stuff that comes out from the back of a bull after he has eaten some carbonara.


Yup, you nailed it perfectly...

[franky1]

the mining: market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH. or the next PRICE of the next minute/day
the mining:market dynamic plays out to show the underlying VALUE which when there is more hashrate the underlying value (bottomline support) goes up. (3.c.)

How is this theory of your working out right now?
The price is up 100 %, the difficulty is up 10% in 3 months and the current period is showing a -1% retrace.

Hilarious, it didn't even take two months to prove your theory is, how do I say it nicely, completely stuff that comes out from the back of a bull after he has eaten some carbonara.


Yup, you nailed it perfectly...

your talking about the PRICE as 100%.. vs the underlying value 10% (actually 35->55 = over 50% bottomline value increase.. but whos counting(not you))
the PRICE and underlying value ARE NOT THE SAME THING

the underlying value is ~$5k area and the PRICE is ~$8k area
this does not mean underlying value is $8k. it means there is ~$3k of speculation
try to read that there is a difference between price and value. and that. as i quoted and highlighted that the mining/market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH PRICE.
the mining/market dynamics only shows the BOTTOMLINE support VALUE (area the price can settle back down to after correction)

P.S you obviously didnt read, because i never even mentioned 'difficulty' as the metric for mining. i used hashrate.
which really goes to show you did not read a single point i made. even when you quoted my point, you still did not read/understand it

[stompix]

try to read that there is a difference between price and value. and that. as i quoted and highlighted that the mining/market dynamics has nothing to do with predicting the next ATH PRICE.

Finally, you've said something right, MINING has no influence whatsoever on the price.

P.S you obviously didnt read, because i never even mentioned 'difficulty' as the metric for mining. i used hashrate.
which really goes to show you did not read a single point i made. even when you quoted my point, you still did not read/understand it

So, what the difference between hashrate and difficulty when used as a comparison value?
Nada. Hashrate goes up 10% over two weeks, the difficulty goes up 10 %, again you're trying to create a saga out of nothing.

Bottom line, hahrate is at a standstill, the price doesn't give a damn about it, and unfortunately, we should do the same about your theories.
Honestly, I'm amazed how after you posted this crap that shows how little you know about mining, pool rewards and much more

have you done the math
EG
s15 = 28t/hash
average block = 42exa right now
= 1.5mill s15's needed
so every block you might get 0.00000833sat (12.5/1.5m)
but your only working on one pool so your not going to get 6x833sat an hour. as other pools(not yours) are winning blocks too

but lets go with the most popular pool with the assumption of 833sat an hour
6 hours or 8 hours a day ~5k - 6.6k a day
20cent-27cent a day income

you still have the nerve to come every time and act like you actually know something.


Oh , and just for fun.
Let's say the price stays flat at 8k and the hahrate is going to start creeping up....
It will be because....reptilians or gummy bears?

[franky1]

stompix.

you seem to think i was promoting a way to predict the PRICE
no, no no

get that out of your head.

i have never cared for speculation. i have never cared for temoprary ATH drama.
what i care for is knowing the bottomline value where people STOP trying to sell below so that people know the settling point of where the BOTTOMLINE will reach once all the drama/speculation subsides/corrects.

my numbers do not help people have a magic crystal ball for the next ATH. i know thats what you are hoping for, but thats your failure.
my numbers are to help people know how much of a gap there is between the 'correction' bottomline and the current price. so that they can see how much speculation there is to know the risks of if they are buying near value. or they are buying alot of speculative vapour hype(buying intoa  bubble)

imagine it this way.
imagine you were at 2 car showrooms. both cars are $40k. and you instantly think, because they are new the resell value is a instant loss of 10% due to the 'used car' devaluation.

what if i told you the 'book price' of both vehicles and one car was $20k and another was $35k
you would then know the car thats book price was $20k would actually have a worse resell value after the 'used car devaluation' thus it would aid you to make a safer investment decision to buy the vehicle which is closer to the book price because reselling it will get you better value.

word it another way.
if you seen 2 coins. both PRICE was $8k. but ones underlying value was $7.5k and the other was $5k
which coin in your mind has most risk of losing most value after a correction. and which coin would you be more temptd to buy as an investment

[stompix]

Nobody ever said something about predicting the right price or predicting where the price goes.

The whole thread derailed from Bitmain because you've started to argue with everybody that difficulty (hashrate) is influencing the price and that price always follows hash (or difficulty).

I've given you previously two examples of why it's completely the opposite, the whole situation now is pointing at it but you continue on your path like a blinkered horse, pulling terms out of you know what about the underlying value and right value and the bottom value and what is far worse your are now claiming values *and this is pure contradiction to your claims you don't act like a crystal ball.

Even worse than that, if it can actually get even worse is that you are trying to get those values out of thin air and again for the x time contradicting your posts from two months ago.

Nobody cares about those analogies, nobody cares about scenarios with so much data and so little in common with what we are discussing.

I've asked you a simple question, in the situation the price will keep flat at 8k for 3 months, will the hashrate recoup the 90% in growth it missed or it will stay the same?
Is hashrate going after the price or it will stay still?

Simple answer franky1, simple, if I want to read crappy scenarios I can go and watch Game of Thrones.

[franky1]

stompix your missing the whole point yet again.

there is no magic crystal ball for your next ATH to be found so try not to insinuate that you thought u found one via my numbers and now crying because it didnt work out. it was never a magic ball to predict the next ATH.

as for the market:mining dynamics.
while the PRICE is at ~$8k
while the VALUE is at ~$5k

again no magic crystal ball of the future ATH.
what can be told though is the LOW.. i will emphasise this many times.. LOW LOW LOW will correct around the $5k range if speculation dies (as long as the hashrate stays where it is.)

some pools may react and throw alot of hashpower to get hashrate of THEIR pool into the the 70-80exa range, but that (my opinion) is foolish to do so, so suddenly and so reactively.(hense btcc is no more)

most smart pools do not react to the markets and instead the pools have a stable planned out adjustment of hashrate to cause a stable BOTTOMLINE LOW adjustment. and its the markets that respond to this.
they wont sell below a certain level

this again is not about causing a rampant market PRICE rise. but the bottomline correction support value adjustment
as shown by the STABLE bottom line of $5800 for most of summer 2018. then when old gen asics got sold cheap to drop the mining cost in october thus bottomline value drop. the PRICE then followed in november.
because the gap between price and value got too speculative and so the bubble burst in november

now that hashrate is back on the incline. people are now refusing to sell for $3500. instead their bottomline value is at~$5k so the market then reacts with its speculation/fomo. and so we are right now sat at a ~$3k speculation area.

again smart pools wont jump to 70-80exa overnight to fill the gap and give good support for a $8k value. so expect there to be a speculative amount for a while. and yes this could mean people panic and sell back down to $5k.(if the hashrate remains around the 50exa range)

if however over the next 3 months the hashrate does incline to ~80exa. then you will find that most people wont sell below $8k as that would be the bottomline support value.. but no one will tel you what the ATH PRICE will be in 3 months
the price could also be around $8k meaning very little speculation. or the price can be up higher meaning alot of speculation

all that can be told is the bottomline VALUE. the area of where the price can go DOWN to... NOT i repeat NOT upto

TL:DR;
stop thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go UPTO
start thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go DOWNTO

[stompix]

Franky, I've been always wondered how can you write pages after pages of totally unrelated stuff but by some miracle manage to avoid exactly the simple thing I was asking you.

You've again launched in a debate just to derail the discussion and avoid answering some simple questions.
Is that hard to follow the flow of a discussion without trying to bring in some unrelated stuff that so that you can be right in at least one aspect?

Say it then, you don't want to answer and be done with it!!!!!

Oh, and stop trying to act like a victim, we're not in kindergarten here!!!

start thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go DOWNTO

Yeah, because an x5  increase in hashrate clearly showed the price should go down 4x!!!
It makes total sense, how could I have missed that.

[franky1]

Franky, I've been always wondered how can you write pages after pages of totally unrelated stuff but by some miracle manage to avoid exactly the simple thing I was asking you.

You've again launched in a debate just to derail the discussion and avoid answering some simple questions.
Is that hard to follow the flow of a discussion without trying to bring in some unrelated stuff that so that you can be right in at least one aspect?

Say it then, you don't want to answer and be done with it!!!!!

Oh, and stop trying to act like a victim, we're not in kindergarten here!!!

start thinking that mining hashrate can predict what the price can go DOWNTO

Yeah, because an x5  increase in hashrate clearly showed the price should go down 4x!!!
It makes total sense, how could I have missed that.

again your obsessed with trying to predict the next high.
for the multiple time the market dynamics is about VALUE (when the corrections occur)
and where the bottomline is found
how many more times do i have to say it
stop thinking about the speculative unpredictable bubble hype. and think about true value point

no one actually cares about last years $20k because hardly anyone was online to actually sell at $20k. the $20k ATH affects very little people. so people should stop caring about the highs because no one can predict the exact point of the tip of a ATH

but if people know where ground level is going to be. everyone can take advantage of the ground level.
things like
knowing how much speculation there is above ground level to know the risks of if they are buying into good value or pure hype
knowing the correction when it occurs is about to peter out so they can start buying in again

the market does react to mining, but its not anything to do with ATH or the hype of speculation.

...

stompix its obvious you cant understand the mining market dynamics. so maybe its you that should not derail the topic of bitmain to then talk only about the dynamics.

looking back at the topic, i made a subtle suggestion MONTHS ago in february. and you/windfury as standard practice totally meandered the topic to only discuss it.

now if you and windfury actually both done some research, including research right back to the days of hal finney, you would learn a thing or two about real economics of the mining/market dynamics.

i even have post history from other topics that done some math. should you care to continue the meander. or you can just stay not understanding the mining market dynamics and just play out your social drama of the meander

either way, im not here to teach you things that already have ben published and wrote about. if you cant look for it. thats on you

to save spamming...
stompix, you re-opened a topic from 2 months ago that was about bitmain. and you meandered it about the mining/market dynamics.
you obviously didnt read or research because even in your opener this month quoting me, the quote you have of me clearly even said it was not about profit.. and clearly says not about by minute/daily. yet i can see by your next post your talking about daily profit.
again missing the whole point.

stop thinking my comment about market follow mining is anything to do with predicting the next high profit. its about th correction/bottomline value. no the top price.
stop looking at charts of the top daily price and look for the average LOW

[stompix]

stompix its obvious you cant understand the mining market dynamics. so maybe its you that should not derail the topic of bitmain to then talk only about th dynamics.

either way, im not here to teach you things that already have ben published and wrote about. if you cant look for it. thats on you

bla bla bla...

Have you learned how mining pools distribute the block rewards and how you calculate your profit over a day depending on your hashing power? I've posted previously the crap you were trying to pass as mining knowledge, you still have the nerve to act high and might after that?
Stop trying to act like a know it all cause even a 2yo has figured all you do is talk things you've dreamed the previous night.

And if you want to stop derailing the subject, then it's pretty easy, stop posting unrelated stuff!
Let's see, can you do it, or again your ego won't let you leave a topic without having the final word?