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Author Topic: Does Martingale Work?  (Read 1092 times)
Tytanowy Janusz
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February 20, 2019, 10:40:29 AM
Last edit: February 21, 2019, 09:37:49 AM by Tytanowy Janusz
Merited by adaseb (2), bones261 (2), Sutters Mill (2), carlfebz2 (1), pixie85 (1), BitCryptex (1)
 #1

I've started to learn to code and one of my first programs was Martingale test.

Assumptions:
1- after every lost bet i double
2- after every win bet i go back to initiation bet
3- initiation bet is 1 $
4- when i can't afford for next bet i exit casino with money i have left
5-I do 100 000 test
6- After every win limit is increased by winning amount.


First test with limit of 1000$ (1000 times oryginal bet) - I think that its amount that most of Martingale enthusiasts enter casino (1000 times more money than single bet).


Average gambler was in casino for 4.8 days and was loosing 10.21 $ per hour. The Richest gambler achieved 446 k $ after 5 years in casino - day by day 8 h a day.

Let's test 1 000 000 times original bet (my pc was calculating it for too long so i set nr of test for 10 000 - i think that its enough to get satisfying results)



Again loss. 20$ per hour on average. Average gambler survived 1 mil rolls and exit with 570 000$. The Richest gambler spent 28 years in casino and tripled money - he was not zeroed. He reached limit of rolls set by me to avoid infinite loop. 28 years is in fact maximum for human to spend in casino (btw. tripling in 28 years. Inflation is bigger Smiley ).

Well. Maybe strategy was to hardcore - playing untill death and taking what's left. Let's say that you would quit after doubling money or go home with 0. I code that too to see what the chances are.

Lets start easy. We enter casino with 500$ and want to exit with 1000$



Only 39% of them doubled money. Its less than if they enter casino and bet everything on red (~48%).

500$ is too small?

Lets start with 1 000 000 $ again.



Loss again. Even worst - 27% chances to double. That's because with higher limit you have to earn more to double. This simulation shows that Martingale simply don't work and is worse than betting everything on red and going home. Gambling should be considered as fun with luck. Every strategy would destroy you and your brain. Go, bet earn/loos have fun but don't thing that with special strategy you have chance to win repetitively and earn for living. Well you can but due to luck ... net math and strategy.

At the end i'll post few result.



I can share my code but i bet you can all write it by yourself. Its easy after few days of learing. That way you can simply test every possible strategy for free.




.




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February 20, 2019, 11:18:50 AM
Merited by alexrossi (2)
 #2

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money. Otherwise, the house edge always wins. It works well for the first few times though. You could get away with profits but if you keep doing it, you are bound to go down with nothing.

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February 20, 2019, 11:40:55 AM
 #3

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money.

thats no make sense at all to gamble if you already have unlimited amounts of cash on your stash  .

Otherwise, the house edge always wins.

no either . i can won several times using martingale method but i was playing safe  .

It works well for the first few times though.

not really . sometimes i lost the first try after i use martingale . make you sure you have enough money to make an epic comeback

You could get away with profits but if you keep doing it, you are bound to go down with nothing.

hell yes . greed is not good all the time . martingale is working but do not abuse it because karma can come too fast .

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February 20, 2019, 11:51:30 AM
 #4

Appreciate those codings but I don't know how its being calculated know the years for you to double or triple money as I have seen it do take years and by the way
Martingale strategy doesn't really work for long term unless if you are lucky and cash out for the exact time. There are lots of similar martingale topics in the past.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2570086.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1751207.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2995887.60
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.520
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4963525.0

 
  

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February 20, 2019, 12:07:58 PM
 #5

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money.

...and who cares about strategies/gambling when one have unlimited money?

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February 20, 2019, 12:42:42 PM
 #6

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money.
thats no make sense at all to gamble if you already have unlimited amounts of cash on your stash  .
It's not always about the money the person could be gambling for fun at this point.  

no either . i can won several times using martingale method but i was playing safe  .
If you win in a casino by playing safe other players will take the losses and if you continue betting the numbers will even out until the casino goes back in profit. The casino will always find a way to stay profitable, they only lose once every player stops playing.

Appreciate those codings but I don't know how its being calculated know the years for you to double or triple money as I have seen it do take years and by the way
Martingale strategy doesn't really work for long term unless if you are lucky and cash out for the exact time. There are lots of similar martingale topics in the past.
On the second simulation it took 28 years to triple the starting balance because the base bet was so low causing the profit to be low as well.

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February 20, 2019, 01:08:10 PM
 #7

May I know If you include the house edge on your computation? I think it may vary a lot of different outcomes in playing martingale, But perhaps it will just make the same output even though you have changed house edge percentage to 99% I really think it will always end up in a lost, I really think we should play gambling in moderation and should learn to have good feeling on when will you stop playing it and just call it a day then try your luck in another day, there are no tactics in a luck base platform it would only apply to skill based games like poker and Sports Betting that is why I always play those games and luck base games in moderation.

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February 20, 2019, 01:21:10 PM
 #8

It doesn't work in the long term and what you show through your pictures don't really mean something except pure luck.

Many and many persons have tried in the past to win with this strategy but up to today no one has managed to win with it. A lot of persons have lost a lot of money with it is the most common result of this strategy.

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February 20, 2019, 01:23:10 PM
 #9

Appreciate those codings but I don't know how its being calculated know the years for you to double or triple money as I have seen it do take years and by the way
Martingale strategy doesn't really work for long term unless if you are lucky and cash out for the exact time. There are lots of similar martingale topics in the past.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2570086.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1751207.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2995887.60
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=610339.520
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=4963525.0

Those threads regarding to martingale all have the same results, in the long stay house will win, either with HE or gamblers greediness,
but I also appreciate your time bringing this here giving ideas for gamblers to try their own code and see how they can see any little edge
against the house.

If ever there's possibilities not to be greed while playing, most of the time gamblers too much attachment always bring
them to suffer loses.

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February 20, 2019, 01:34:25 PM
 #10

not really . sometimes i lost the first try after i use martingale . make you sure you have enough money to make an epic comeback
What do you mean by this? you can't do martingale with a single bet though so how come.

There was a time that I'm using this kind of technique when gambling and really needs a huge amount of balance in able to do it.

Back then, I've got my balance ready for consecutive losses and guess what, I've check the history of my bets and lose 16 consecutive with 49% win rate, so the moral story here is you'll still lose no matter what technique you will be using and if you won't be contented to your winnings as the casino are designed to win over time.
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February 20, 2019, 01:42:52 PM
Last edit: February 20, 2019, 04:35:31 PM by Tytanowy Janusz
 #11

not really . sometimes i lost the first try after i use martingale . make you sure you have enough money to make an epic comeback
What do you mean by this? you can't do martingale with a single bet though so how come.

There was a time that I'm using this kind of technique when gambling and really needs a huge amount of balance in able to do it.

Back then, I've got my balance ready for consecutive losses and guess what, I've check the history of my bets and lose 16 consecutive with 49% win rate, so the moral story here is you'll still lose no matter what technique you will be using and if you won't be contented to your winnings as the casino are designed to win over time.

He mean by that that killing strike started after first bet. What is possible.

Quote
Limit:
100
How manny tests
100000
When you want to quit?
101
Casino lost with 97521 gamblers out of 100000. Each of them took home 101$
With limit equal to 100 x bet 2,5% times you will be hit by killing strike just after entering casino.


Quote
Limit:
1000000
How manny tests
100000000
When you want to quit?
1000001
Casino lost with 99999637 gamblers out of 100000000. Each of them took home 1000001$

With 1 000 000 x bet limit 363 gamblers out of 100 mil will hit killing strike after first bet and wont earn even a dolar. 1 out of 275 000. Thats not even close to luck you have to have to win lottery (1:13 000 000 on most popular one in my country ... and 3 times a week someone is winning Smiley ).




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BitBustah
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February 20, 2019, 02:02:53 PM
 #12

Sorry but it doesn't work, if there was a way to always beat the casino they wouldn't still be in business.  You will eventually hit a really bad losing streak even though you think it is impossible.  Also casinos always have max bets in place from even attempting this strategy on a large scale.
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February 20, 2019, 02:08:19 PM
 #13

^  Yup.  If anything, you should be betting smaller and smaller as you lose to preserve your bankroll so that you keep yourself in the game until the momentum is on your side.

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February 20, 2019, 03:11:38 PM
 #14

^  Yup.  If anything, you should be betting smaller and smaller as you lose to preserve your bankroll so that you keep yourself in the game until the momentum is on your side.

If you are gambling because you like it and you want to have fun than your strategy is great. If you are gambling hoping to earn than mathematically speaking you should not gamble at all and if you still want you should bet all your wallet on red and go home with x2 or - 0. That way you have 48% chance to double. Every other strategy lowers propability. If you don't trust me I can code  and run simulation of any strategy.




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February 20, 2019, 03:31:55 PM
 #15

I think the best strategy is to place only a few bets in large amounts.  The longer you bet the closer the results will be to the expected odds.
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February 20, 2019, 04:41:38 PM
 #16

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money. Otherwise, the house edge always wins. It works well for the first few times though. You could get away with profits but if you keep doing it, you are bound to go down with nothing.

You get it really wrong, because there is always max bet allowed in all gambling site. Unlimited balance will be useless once you reach the max allowed bet, as you cant bet higher to recover the losing streak. Martingale or whatever the strategy, it works when you are lucky only.




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February 20, 2019, 04:56:25 PM
 #17

The only way Martingale works is when you have unlimited amount of money. Otherwise, the house edge always wins. It works well for the first few times though. You could get away with profits but if you keep doing it, you are bound to go down with nothing.

I agree with this I've tried to gamble few times and start with a small amount and do a martingale strategy it's really true that at the first few times it works but after some time I started losing and losing and also it's true that you really need a high amount of playing money and a certain amount goal to success in martingale strategy.

But I also tried investing a medium amount of crypto to a gambling site but still lose in martingale strategy. Cheesy
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February 20, 2019, 09:29:06 PM
 #18

It doesn't work in the long term and what you show through your pictures don't really mean something except pure luck.

Many and many persons have tried in the past to win with this strategy but up to today no one has managed to win with it. A lot of persons have lost a lot of money with it is the most common result of this strategy.
Honestly i tried this one before and the result is also negative since I’m not lucky that time. So for me, this is really not good and it will just make your money lose in the long run. Do you find any gamblers who succeed through this one? I think none. Gambling is still about luck no matter what strategies you are using.

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February 20, 2019, 09:50:09 PM
 #19

From my experience sometimes it does work sometimes but not enough to get me in profit on the long term. So I wouldn't advise using only this strategy when betting same as I don't recommend using a single strategy for a very long period. At the end from my opinion it all comes down to luck when playing this kind of strategies, especially when you are aiming for big money.

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February 20, 2019, 10:06:27 PM
 #20

From my experience sometimes it does work sometimes but not enough to get me in profit on the long term. So I wouldn't advise using only this strategy when betting same as I don't recommend using a single strategy for a very long period. At the end from my opinion it all comes down to luck when playing this kind of strategies, especially when you are aiming for big money.
It's not just your opinion. Every strategy in gambling requires at least some amount of luck due to the house edge being in play and sheer luck being against you, especially ones like Martingale, which are mathematically proven to generate a net loss over time. I've seen numerous posts like this over the last few months in this very section of the forum, and the outcome's nearly the same with every test of any method that's based off Martingale- you're going to lose over the medium to long-term.

Gambling isn't meant to be profitable for you in the first place. There's really no way to make money consistently from a digital casino unless a game is fundamentally flawed, which rarely happens and is usually patched very quickly in this digital age. 

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