Wining the Toss : Bat Or Bowl In Cricket World Cup

[UmerIdrees]

I am analyzing if batting first will win more matches or batting second will be more beneficial in the current world cup.
These stats will be helpful for the teams to take the decision on winning the toss and also gamblers can place bet on matches based on the team batting first or second.


No. of Matches Won by Batting First :       08
No of Matches Won by Batting Second :   03



Match  Date    Match                                            Wining Team Bat First / Bat Second
No.         
1   30-May   England vs South Africa                    Bat First
         
2   31-May   Pakistan vs Windies                           Bat Second
3   1-Jun   New Zealand vs Sri Lanka                    Bat Second
4   1-Jun   Afghanistan vs Australia                     Bat Second
5   2-Jun   Bangladesh vs South Africa                    Bat First
6   3-Jun   England vs Pakistan                             Bat First
7   4-Jun   Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka                      Bat First
8   5-Jun   India vs South Africa                            Bat First
9   5-Jun   Bangladesh vs New Zealand         Bat First
10   6-Jun   Australia vs Windies                            Bat First
11   7-Jun   Pakistan vs Sri Lanka                                No Result
12   8-Jun   England vs Bangladesh                     Bat First
13   8-Jun   Afghanistan vs New Zealand   
14   9-Jun   Australia vs India   
15   10-Jun   South Africa vs Windies   
16   11-Jun   Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka   
17   12-Jun   Australia vs Pakistan   
18   13-Jun   India vs New Zealand   
19   14-Jun   England vs Windies   
20   15-Jun   Australia vs Sri Lanka   
21   15-Jun   Afghanistan vs South Africa   
22   16-Jun   India vs Pakistan   
23   17-Jun   Bangladesh vs Windies   
24   18-Jun   England vs Afghanistan   
25   19-Jun   New Zealand vs South Africa   
26   20-Jun   Australia vs Bangladesh   
27   21-Jun   England vs Sri Lanka   
28   22-Jun   Afghanistan vs India   
29   22-Jun   New Zealand vs Windies   
30   23-Jun   Pakistan vs South Africa   
31   24-Jun   Afghanistan vs Bangladesh   
32   25-Jun   England vs Australia   
33   26-Jun   New Zealand vs Pakistan   
34   27-Jun   India vs Windies   
35   28-Jun   Sri Lanka vs South Africa   
36   29-Jun   Afghanistan vs Pakistan   
37   29-Jun   Australia vs New Zealand   
38   30-Jun   England vs India   
39   1-Jul     Sri Lanka vs Windies   
40   2-Jul     Bangladesh vs India   
41   3-Jul     England vs New Zealand   
42   4-Jul     Afghanistan vs Windies   
43   5-Jul     Bangladesh vs Pakistan   
44   6-Jul     India vs Sri Lanka   
45   6-Jul     Australia vs South Africa   
46   9-Jul     Qualifier 1 vs Qualifier 4   
47   11-Jul  Qualifier 2 vs Qualifier 3   
48   14-Jul Winners Semi-final 1 vs Winners Semi-final 2   

[UmerIdrees]

So we have two matches in the world cup till now and one match is won by batting first while the other match is won by batting second. So it makes it even probability of winning the matches either bating first or second till now.

[monalia]

Haha good move for the world cup analysis. I feel that batting 2nd is the best choice the make their winning moment.

I will be bet for New Zealand tomorrow because of their team's potential. Whether they play first and second they will win for sure.

Chasing may give some idea for the team playing 2nd innings to perform well with the hard ball. Even weather conditions will be perform on their side only.

[UmerIdrees]

I feel that batting 2nd is the best choice the make their winning moment.

Yes, the percentage of wining is more while batting second. Still its early stage of the tournament. Only 4 matches have been played out of which only the first match (England vs South Africa) was won by batting first.

[Ailmand]

I feel that batting 2nd is the best choice the make their winning moment.

Yes, the percentage of wining is more while batting second. Still its early stage of the tournament. Only 4 matches have been played out of which only the first match (England vs South Africa) was won by batting first.

Good analysis, I think 4 matches as a reference is not enough for a reference as for probability in winning, but this can still help since out of 4 matches team the chances of winning by batting 2nd is higher. But still, it's a sport, anything can still happen the other way around.

[traderethereum]

I think I choose South Africa, England, and Afghanistan to be the winner in the next round
New Zealand could have the potential to win, but we don't know yet.
It still a long road to know what team that can win the cricket world cup
Although I don't know much about cricket, I guess these sports have big fans too in some countries.

[onrise]

The only of those matches I have played money on was the first match where England won. I know too little about cricket to gamble on all the matches, but if I see some good tips and they make sense to me, I will give it a try.

England becomes favorite due to the home ground conditions and the support from the fans which they receive it. And also their team this time is very strong and given under any conditions they can play a better cricket batting first or second.

[Avirunes]

It would be good to add grounds against the matches. Stats per ground also is a good factor to make a good bet judgement.

The only of those matches I have played money on was the first match where England won. I know too little about cricket to gamble on all the matches, but if I see some good tips and they make sense to me, I will give it a try.

England becomes favorite due to the home ground conditions and the support from the fans which they receive it. And also their team this time is very strong and given under any conditions they can play a better cricket batting first or second.

Well not everytime say for against good teams but I can say they have advantage over others.

[akram143]

I don't think the Batting or fielding first will not be decides the winning chances of yeah team but the the winning toss will decide everything in most of the time so your analysis is also like that if the team win the toss then the possibility of winning is also available for the team to win

[UmerIdrees]

Finally we got a team , Bangladesh, who won by batting first. This make the ratio of bat first or second to 2:3 which is almost even. So there is no advantage of batting first or second until this point of world cup.

[UmerIdrees]

With Srilankan winning the match, while batting fist, this now makes Team batting first Wins 4 times while team batting second won three times.  We need to analysis few more matches and if it remain even, the winning or losing toss will not be significant in this world cup.

[UmerIdrees]

10 Matches of the World cup are finished and we can clearly see that team batting first has more chances of winning the match than team batting second. This may be because of the pressure of the WC matches makes chase difficult.

[Duzter]

That's really a good effort to know the winning probabilities of the matches played on an entire tournament. Though the ground and the weather plays a major part in deciding on the winning of the match, the majority of the winning happens unlike these factors and mostly depend on the teams and the players into it. Anyhow the result will serve as a statistical data.

[Patatas]

Absolutely illogical thread. If you had the slightest clue about cricket, you know how weather, ground, the opposite team, and match conditions for that day affect the decision to bat or bowl. Captains can't take that decision based on the previous odds. On a ground that is supposed be good as a bowling pitch, a captain can't choose to bat because previous two teams batting on a totally different grounds. You know nothing about cricket.

[UmerIdrees]

Absolutely illogical thread. If you had the slightest clue about cricket, you know how weather, ground, the opposite team, and match conditions for that day affect the decision to bat or bowl. Captains can't take that decision based on the previous odds. On a ground that is supposed be good as a bowling pitch, a captain can't choose to bat because previous two teams batting on a totally different grounds. You know nothing about cricket.

Oh really, I have no idea about cricket.    Before stating this, you should have read my post history as majority of my posts are on the discussion on cricket only.  

Below are the few discussion threads started by me on cricket only   and I know nothing about cricket.  

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5127946.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5123777.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5108250.0

I know that in cricket there are a lot of factors which decide the decision of batting first or second, but this is also another important factor which cannot be denied. Although batting first or second does not matter much in England, but in many places of the world it does matter.
In sub continent, the dew factor comes up which makes the toss, make or break of the match.

Anyways still you know everything about cricket, I am just trying to learn and help others in my way.

[Thanasis]

If the pitch is assisting bowling then people who are batting forst have the better chance because later part of the game will assist more and more bowlers so batting second will struggle more compared to batting first.SO it means pitches in England are good for the bowlers which is nothing related to batting first or second only pitch decide which is better way to go.

[nakamura12]

I am not a cricket fan but if I am a bettor of that kind of game i'd bet on the team that has a good match record. Base on op, i think there are more teams who won by batting first and only three teams who won in batting second for now. Let's see if there will be more teams who will win in batting second.

[Juggy777]

If the pitch is assisting bowling then people who are batting forst have the better chance because later part of the game will assist more and more bowlers so batting second will struggle more compared to batting first.SO it means pitches in England are good for the bowlers which is nothing related to batting first or second only pitch decide which is better way to go.

@Thanasis your analysis is spot on England pitches are favouring swing bowlers, and that’s the reason why so many matches are being won by swing bowlers. Another explanation is that teams batting first are under no pressure to keep the run rate ticking, but the teams batting second are under pressure to score runs and in that process they keep on losing wickets. In the end I feel it’s all about holding your nerves, and so far teams that have won batting first have hold it better than their counterparts.