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 Author Topic: Crypto Vs Lotto  (Read 543 times)
Betwrong
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 March 13, 2019, 02:14:46 PMMerited by South Park (2)

If you want something with much better odds than playing government run lotteries you can solo mine and try to get lucky on finding a bitcoin block yourself.  The expected odds are vastly superior to playing the lottery.

All right, let's make some calculations here to see if that is the case.

Antminer S15 has the hashrate of around 28TH/s.

With the current hashrate, ~ 43,000,000 TH/s, the probabilty of finding a block in 10 minutes:

28 : 43,000,000 = 0.000000651 or ~ 0.000065% (which basically means impossible)

However, the situation is not that hopeless if you want to mine a block in a year.

There are ~ 52560 blocks mined per year, so we should multiply that number by 52560:

0.000000651 x 52560 = 0.03421656 or ~ 3.4%

So, the probability of solomining a block in a year is around 3.4% currently.

Antminer S15- costs ~ \$1,000

The energy consumption for Antminer S15 is

1.596 kW x 24h x 365 = 13,980.960 or roughly 14,000 kWh per year.

If the electricity price is \$0.10, we have additional \$1,400 to the costs.

If succeeded in mining a block you are currently getting 12.5 BTC or \$49,000.

So, it breaks down like this:

You are risking \$2,400 in order to earn \$49,000 with 3.4% chance. (Also keep in mind all that noise and overheating).

If you place \$2,400 bet with 3.4% win chance on a dice site with 1% house edge(no way I'm encouraging that though) you are going to win \$64,482 in case of luck.

Maybe that's why people rarely solomine, if ever.

Regarding the lottery, there are different odds for different lotteries, but let's take Mega Millions for example.

The odds of winning jackpot ~ 1 : 300,000,000 = 0.000000003

If you buy 1,200 tickets with \$2,400

0.000000003 x 1,200 = 0.000004 or 0.0004%

Although your win chance is much smaller than that for finding a block with solomining during one year, don't forget that the prize is much higher in Mega Millions(Next Estimated Jackpot: \$40 Million), and also with 1,200 tickets you can win some smaller prizes along the way. So, it's hard to say what is better imo.

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posi
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 March 13, 2019, 02:22:44 PM

If you want something with much better odds than playing government run lotteries you can solo mine and try to get lucky on finding a bitcoin block yourself.  The expected odds are vastly superior to playing the lottery.
Bitcoin is the wrong coin in that regard. You with a high probability will never find a block on your own. For argument same, even if you mine a block, the power it took you to mine it makes you still lose badly.

If you said Ethereum or Litecoin, coins that you can mine with your GPU rig, things would be different. But then again, finding blocks is also based on luck, because you're not the only small fish trying to be lucky and mine a block.

Overall, looking at how people "invest" or "trade" in crypto, it's fair to say that it's quite similar to gambling. No TA, no fundamental analysis, no understanding of the protocols, and so forth. People are flipping a coin....
I totally accept your saying because solo miners is no longer profitable ever since the year 2017  but i came to a conclusion that every investment either crypto related or real world is a gambling because what we're doing is trying out our luck and the most important aspect is ones should know the depth rules and regulations of whatever business he want to invest in.

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slocker
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 March 13, 2019, 02:27:32 PM

Both are gable in my opinion and most likely that they have same outcome as result. You will pick what to mine or what number you wanna see in ticket or you will buy with selected number already on ticket. In either way you will have to make decision on what you wanna do. Mine or play lottery.
davinchi
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 March 13, 2019, 07:29:06 PM

Investing is better than lotteries and investing in cryptocurrencies is like investing into your future.  Many people are making money from the little there have invested in some years back and they are still holding some value.
Crytocurrency investment is very good and I think everyone knows this already, and like you have mentioned investing in cryptocurrency is like investing in the future, but i would like to point out that there are those whose future in Now, let me explain briefly.

If I am left with just \$100, no other hope of getting any money and I do not even know what tomorrow holds for me and now get an opportunity to choose between crypto and Lotto, am sorry at that moment i would choose lotto. This is because I believe any instant win will change my entire life forever and with crypto I might have to wait a little though there is hope for good return.

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 March 14, 2019, 01:38:18 PM

Even the most guaranteed investment can be likened to gambling because it always carries a low risk. I think the analogy you're doing isn't right because even the most risky investment in all markets is definitely not the same as gambling or lotto. Although the chance factor is important in the investments made, it will certainly be perceived as an analogy of error and simple amateurism. You also have the risk of losing all the money with lotto, but it is not possible for this market at the moment. Yes, there is the possibility of losing a significant amount of money, but there is no possibility of losing all the money.
I personally think the least guaranteed investment should not even be compared to lotto. Lotto is all shades of risk.
There is every possibility of loosing all without having anything left to back on but with other investments, there can still be a little form of compensation.

Crypto has minimal risk. There’s no probability of losing all invested cash, if one is to lose at all, it will only be a part of it but and most of the time the  people who loose in crypto are those who are either not careful or patient enough for the market .
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 March 14, 2019, 03:55:05 PM

Even the most guaranteed investment can be likened to gambling because it always carries a low risk. I think the analogy you're doing isn't right because even the most risky investment in all markets is definitely not the same as gambling or lotto. Although the chance factor is important in the investments made, it will certainly be perceived as an analogy of error and simple amateurism. You also have the risk of losing all the money with lotto, but it is not possible for this market at the moment. Yes, there is the possibility of losing a significant amount of money, but there is no possibility of losing all the money.
I personally think the least guaranteed investment should not even be compared to lotto. Lotto is all shades of risk.
There is every possibility of loosing all without having anything left to back on but with other investments, there can still be a little form of compensation.

Crypto has minimal risk. There’s no probability of losing all invested cash, if one is to lose at all, it will only be a part of it but and most of the time the  people who loose in crypto are those who are either not careful or patient enough for the market .

The lottery is inherently a losing game.  The only consistent winners are the lottery operators which is usually just the government.  Markets always tend to go up over time so everyone can be a winner if they diversify and are willing to wait.
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 March 14, 2019, 10:49:46 PM

Crypto is better than lottery because lottery is by luck while crypto is in your hands. If you are a good trader and a wise investor the  crypto will really make change to your life. Lottery is like a gamble you don't if you'll win. Having a good choice  between crypto and lottery are very simple. You can actually do both of them while using crypto and you're also playing a lottery.
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 March 21, 2019, 09:44:45 PM

Crypto is better than lottery because lottery is by luck while crypto is in your hands. If you are a good trader and a wise investor the  crypto will really make change to your life. Lottery is like a gamble you don't if you'll win. Having a good choice  between crypto and lottery are very simple. You can actually do both of them while using crypto and you're also playing a lottery.
Yeah, exactly. Crypto is always better than Lottery, because it's so risky and you aren't under control of it, while in crypto you can take some decisions according to your knowledge about the market, so the risk will decrease depending on your skills and your background in this field. In the case that you're a good trader like you said, Crypto for sure it will be more better.
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 March 21, 2019, 10:26:02 PM

The odds of winning a national lottery are virtually nil, something like 300m to 1 which makes it practically impossible. Rather than waste time on tickets, save and invest in crypto. Look at all the good things lined up:

ETF applications - One will inevitably succeed leading to a mega pump (just like when gold was added)
BAKKT - If an ETF is not approved, who cares as BAKKT will bring the financial institutions into crypto
Lightning network - for mainstream adoption
August 2019 - Litecoin halving
May 2020 - bitcoin halving (see historic charts for these huge halving pumps)

All coins are like 80% from the all time high, odds of getting rich from crypto is millions of times better than the lotto. Be smart and invest wisely

Theres no hundred percent profit on lottery because gambling is based on pure luck. If you will put your everyday bets on lottery into bitcoin or maybe some altcoins, you can earn the same aa winning in just a few years. Im sure if your not that lucky, you cannot win jockpot in lottery even in two years.
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 March 21, 2019, 10:29:17 PM

Crypto is better than lottery because lottery is by luck while crypto is in your hands. If you are a good trader and a wise investor the  crypto will really make change to your life. Lottery is like a gamble you don't if you'll win. Having a good choice  between crypto and lottery are very simple. You can actually do both of them while using crypto and you're also playing a lottery.
Yeah, exactly. Crypto is always better than Lottery, because it's so risky and you aren't under control of it, while in crypto you can take some decisions according to your knowledge about the market, so the risk will decrease depending on your skills and your background in this field. In the case that you're a good trader like you said, Crypto for sure it will be more better.

Right.With good skills and strategies in trading,it will be more advantage to gain good profits unlike lottery itself which is purely based on luck.Even if you have good strategies to make sets of digits to bet,but happen that you're not really lucky about it,you will never win in lotto.Unlike crypto investment which will surely give you huge profits even if you're not lucky at all.

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 March 22, 2019, 12:21:32 PM

Both are gable in my opinion and most likely that they have same outcome as result. You will pick what to mine or what number you wanna see in ticket or you will buy with selected number already on ticket. In either way you will have to make decision on what you wanna do. Mine or play lottery.
I don't think it can be compared because Lotto gambles while crypto is a digital currency that can be used like fiat money, to pay for transactions.
If Lotto you give money to buy a ticket that already has a number and pray that the numbers are correct and get lots of prizes.
So crypto is a digital currency that can be stored and not used for a long time, just think of savings.

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 March 22, 2019, 12:24:50 PM

Crypto is better than lottery because lottery is by luck while crypto is in your hands. If you are a good trader and a wise investor the  crypto will really make change to your life. Lottery is like a gamble you don't if you'll win. Having a good choice  between crypto and lottery are very simple. You can actually do both of them while using crypto and you're also playing a lottery.

Difference between both I feel is the reality vs the dream. If you want to actually become millionaire than the reality is investing in crypto with the right coins at lowest prices possible. And if you want to in the dreams then buying the lottery tickets are the things which you can do and only 1 in millions dream come true in such scenarios.

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