"What started it"?

[Qoheleth]

So after looking into volume on the top exchanges, it looks like today's excitement may have begun in Japan.

Here's a line from Coincheck's minute-by-minute volume (as reported by BitcoinCharts):

Code:

2019-04-02 04:28:00	465026	465598	465016	465419	7.68	3574735.98	465396.36

This is a small move in terms of price, but a fairly large trade for this particular exchange - about 7x the usual minute-by-minute volume.

This is followed a couple minutes later by high volume on Kraken (USD):

Code:

2019-04-02 04:31:00	4184.3	4194.7	4184.3	4194	125.68	526358.37	4188.23

and Bitstamp:

Code:

2019-04-02 04:31:00	4187.45	4200	4187.45	4200	138.17	579084.04	4190.95

And then the other exchanges. Most small exchanges see big volume bumps at 04:32:00, but feedback into Coincheck seems to happen comparatively fast; it begins at 04:31:00 too.

Could arbitrage from this big Coincheck trade have been the event that kicked off today's green candle? Or am I reading too much into this, and the trade at 4:28 was just a coincidence?

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[Astargath]

Isn't that always the case with big moves? All the exchanges follow each other, don't they? When something like a 10-15% move happens so fast and starts in ''X'' exchange the others simply follow it seconds or minutes after, the amount of bots that trade is huge, they are all in sync basically. At least I think that's what it is.

[Adriano2010]

I think maybe started in Japan and maybe China who know. Tommorow morning when i wake up the price was over 5000 and now is 4730. Maybe was more trading bots and after people start buy and buy.

[vit05]

There is always someone trying to push the prices. What really started was not simple arbitrage following someone else. It was the confirmation that mostly people where waiting for. "If it pass 4100 with volume, I will buy until 5k" was one of the phrases that I heard.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Isn't that always the case with big moves? All the exchanges follow each other, don't they? When something like a 10-15% move happens so fast and starts in ''X'' exchange the others simply follow it seconds or minutes after, the amount of bots that trade is huge, they are all in sync basically. At least I think that's what it is.

The price has to pretty much always remain constant across all exchanges, because arbatrageurs make it efficient like that.  Yes, bitcoin might sell at slightly different prices between exchanges, but that doesn't last for long as traders exploit the discrepancy.  Mt. Gox was a notable exception to this rule, and we all know why that was.  Stock exchanges are even more efficient than crypto ones, though there are far fewer stock ones and so that makes sense.

I think whales started it.  I don't think this was a collective action on the part of all the small players in the market, but who knows.  Ultimately I don't really care what kicked shit off--I'm just happy the breakout was upward rather than downward.

[o_e_l_e_o]

This article from Reuters seems to suggest that the orders on three exchanges were synchronized enough to be a single entity, that someone wanted to buy 20k bitcoin, but spread it across 3 exchanges to get a better price rather than just eating up all the buy orders on a single exchange.

Either way, arbitrage bots are always running and primed to jump at difference of even a couple of percent. A gap of 10-15% is going to be closed within minutes as these bots exploit all the profit to be had.

[Idrisu]

For bitcoin to really realize it destiny and been adopted as money all over the world it most be used to purchase goods and payments for services because of the ways the world is going.  Blockchain technology is one of the Best discovered in human history.
I agree with you op that today bull run commence and that is in Japan market and it split over to other exchanges.

[adaseb]

It was most likely a trigger short squeeze that originated from Bitmex. At the time it had $620,000,000 in open interest and being at a recent high , it was assumed most were underwater shorts. Also the 0.10% funding rate wasn't helping either.

The exchanges which make the index on Bitmex are Bitstamp, Gdax and Kraken and usually the whales try and do massive buys on those exchanges to get the algo bots to trigger on Bitmex, and other algo bots trigger on other smaller exchanges like Gemini.

Its all connected one way or another because there is big money to be made in arbitrage and the trading fee rebates.

[Astargath]

Isn't that always the case with big moves? All the exchanges follow each other, don't they? When something like a 10-15% move happens so fast and starts in ''X'' exchange the others simply follow it seconds or minutes after, the amount of bots that trade is huge, they are all in sync basically. At least I think that's what it is.

The price has to pretty much always remain constant across all exchanges, because arbatrageurs make it efficient like that.  Yes, bitcoin might sell at slightly different prices between exchanges, but that doesn't last for long as traders exploit the discrepancy.  Mt. Gox was a notable exception to this rule, and we all know why that was.  Stock exchanges are even more efficient than crypto ones, though there are far fewer stock ones and so that makes sense.

I think whales started it.  I don't think this was a collective action on the part of all the small players in the market, but who knows.  Ultimately I don't really care what kicked shit off--I'm just happy the breakout was upward rather than downward.

Yeah, a lot of moves happen because of that, a bit of TA and small and big players jumping into it, it doesn't need to be some conspiracy or news related, simply people following each other. Also every time bitcoin trades sideways for a long time with really low volume a big move eventually happens.

[STT]

Its been observable for a while now that the base price is bullish and just recently it was sticking to 4000 far too much to be negative on the price action.   Yet in an ironic bullish manner I still see many glum and downbeat on BTC which is actually a good thing as we dont want people to be getting too excited or the price gets 'fluffy'
I'm sure there is various triggers and obviously shorts closing is a danger for them that is leads like an avalanche upwards but its not entirely recent, price has been quietly confident at least a couple months

[Hamphser]

I think whales started it.  I don't think this was a collective action on the part of all the small players in the market, but who knows.  Ultimately I don't really care what kicked shit off--I'm just happy the breakout was upward rather than downward.

Nah! Ive been thinking on this way where i dont really care or stress myself out on why the price been pushed up without our notice.Bitcoin never fails to impress or surprise
on these kind of times.The entire market had been silent for long months and we see sudden bump.For op, it isnt bad to see those presumptions and might be a possible cause but those
are just on less chances to be valid yet exchangers do really follow prices one after another.

[wheelz1200]

It was most likely a trigger short squeeze that originated from Bitmex. At the time it had $620,000,000 in open interest and being at a recent high , it was assumed most were underwater shorts. Also the 0.10% funding rate wasn't helping either.

The exchanges which make the index on Bitmex are Bitstamp, Gdax and Kraken and usually the whales try and do massive buys on those exchanges to get the algo bots to trigger on Bitmex, and other algo bots trigger on other smaller exchanges like Gemini.

Its all connected one way or another because there is big money to be made in arbitrage and the trading fee rebates.

This is always a good argument.  Short squeezing in an easy market to move generally speaking happens a lot.  I'm with you someone want the shorts out.

[mk4]

*snip*

Regarding BitMEX, there was this dude on Twitter yesterday, talking about the BitMEX insurance fund. Not really sure how it's related, but this dude pretty much predicted what happened SPOT ON.

Here's the Tweet: https://twitter.com/Crypto_Bitlord/status/1112717735211888640

[bbc.reporter]

@Qoheleth. I reckon whatever or whoever started it might be using their newly bought bitcoins to pump bitcoin cash also. It has pumped more than any cryptocoin in the top 50.

Also, the pump started in Japan. Roger Ver lives in Tokyo, Japan.

[pooya87]

since this was Japanese and it is hard if not possible to arbitrage between that an other exchanges that have USD such as coinbase,... i would say no it had nothing to do with arbitrage.

This article from Reuters seems to suggest that the orders on three exchanges were synchronized enough to be a single entity, that someone wanted to buy 20k bitcoin, but spread it across 3 exchanges to get a better price rather than just eating up all the buy orders on a single exchange.

it wasn't that synchronized, at least not any more than any other time. big traders running bots are always watching multiple exchanges, it is super easy. even my simple bot (written by me) has it! i used it for some altcoins in some small exchanges to buy/dump depending on what happened on bigger ones. that doesn't mean the exchanges were synchronized and i was a whale moving all the markets together. it just meant i saw the other market move and i acted fast.

besides someone who wants to buy large amounts usually uses alternative ways such as p2p, OTC, shadow orders on exchanges,...

[Baofeng]

This article from Reuters seems to suggest that the orders on three exchanges were synchronized enough to be a single entity, that someone wanted to buy 20k bitcoin, but spread it across 3 exchanges to get a better price rather than just eating up all the buy orders on a single exchange.

I think the main source of that one is zerohedge or bloomberg, although it has been updated (zerohedge.) As of now, this seems to be the 'logical' reason. It was orchestrated, maybe a single entity, $100 millions spread across and damn, he/she moved the price by $1000. Just imagine if billions just suddenly pour in in the next couple of days.

Either way, arbitrage bots are always running and primed to jump at difference of even a couple of percent. A gap of 10-15% is going to be closed within minutes as these bots exploit all the profit to be had.

Exactly, bots has already done it's share whether positive (pump) or negative (dump).

[FanEagle]

For now we don’t have an answer to what really started it and many crypt users too are looking out for one, so if I take a look at yours since we have limited answer, probably I might find my answer from there too but if you say it’s from Japan, it means majority of the investors are from Japan, so what could have prompted them to invest so much, though I can see you mentioned arbitrage but if it is arbitrage, we ought to have seen the reversal  because arbitrage is to simply and shortly take advantage of price difference across the market to make profit, so they ought to have immediately sell of their coins too on other exchanges with higher value which will cause sudden dump but that has not happened.

[exstasie]

Isn't that always the case with big moves? All the exchanges follow each other, don't they? When something like a 10-15% move happens so fast and starts in ''X'' exchange the others simply follow it seconds or minutes after, the amount of bots that trade is huge, they are all in sync basically. At least I think that's what it is.

Yep, bots (including arbitrage bots) react to movements on other exchanges. This was a highly anticipated move with lots of stops waiting above $4,200 so it didn't take much to catalyze it. Within a minute or so, I'd expect any move sustained on multiple exchanges to quickly spread through the market as stops begin to trigger.

[STT]

Just saw this news that might explain the move possibly - https://www.coindesk.com/the-sec-just-released-its-crypto-token-guidance?

If SEC is giving guidance like that its implying some progress for crypto in acceptance and even integration with the rest of the finance world.   Now I would think thats jumping the gun slightly, maybe and maybe not because SEC is just trying to warn people mostly.

However markets especially where people are already shorting will move upwards on this, its the job of speculators to take a side and be bullish, bearish on whatever prospects into uncertainity.   This news might be enough to explain people getting stopped out of their leveraged negative take on BTC plus other factors it led to a rise

[figmentofmyass]

Just saw this news that might explain the move possibly - https://www.coindesk.com/the-sec-just-released-its-crypto-token-guidance?

If SEC is giving guidance like that its implying some progress for crypto in acceptance and even integration with the rest of the finance world.

tbh the SEC has been pretty welcoming and hands-off. they've mainly gone after obvious frauds and unregistered exchanges, giving ICOs countless chances to register their securities and maintain the proper disclosures when necessary.

unfortunately this appears to be only staff-issued guidance. not only is it not formal law but it carries much less weight than coming from the commissioners. it's also kinda vague.

i don't think it was the SEC guidance that moved the market anyway. people are always looking for a news event to link price moves too but really, the price moved from $4100 to $4200 for the same reason it moved from $3900 to $4k. after that, stop losses and then margin calls started triggering. and now bottom sellers and shorters who didn't buy back yet are providing new demand. it's all supply/demand in action, not news.