2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

 
The intention of this thread is to speculatively forecast the price of Bitcoin via subjectively using the Elliott Wave principle.

Analysis is purely guesswork with an endeavour to provide sporadic fortnightly updates.

Previous thread: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave)
 

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2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/b9nlzh/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_bull_market/

The 2018 cryptocurrency crash saw Bitcoin decline 85% in value, elapsing the course of 363 days —just two days shy of a complete year. The all-time high occurred on 17-DEC-2017, and a notable low occurred on 15-DEC-2018.

The bear market of 2018 unfolded in three stages:

• i. A three wave A-B-C decline, from 17-DEC-2017 high to 06-FEB-2018 low, declining 70%
• ii. A five wave A-B-C-D-E sideways rangebound triangle, from 06-FEB-2018 to 24-JUL-2018
• iii. A five wave impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 decline, from 24-JUL-2018 high to 15-DEC-2018 (06-FEB-2019 orthodox) low, declining 63%

Overall, these three stages form a complex A-B-C composite structure, as the following chart illustrates:



As each stage of the 2018 bear market unfolded, bounces became diminishing in size. The following lists notable price advances that occurred whilst price action was rangebound in a sideways triangle during the second stage:

—06-FEB to 20-FEB, a 99% advance.
—01-APR to 05-MAY, a 55% advance.
—29-JUN to 24-JUL, a 47% advance.

Subsequent bounces during the third stage of the bear market, from 24-JUL-2018 to 15-DEC-2018, have been less than 27% in size.

From the 15-DEC-2018 low, Bitcoin has thus far rebounded 70% —the second largest advance since the 2017 all-time high. In addition, although not conclusive yet, price action appears to be advancing in impulsive waves. Hence, there is a preliminary cautious opportunity to suggest a new cryptocurrency bull market may be underway.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, a new bull may likely suggest the following two abstract scenarios, 'simple' and 'complex':

Scenario A (Simple)



Scenario B (Complex)



New all-time highs would suggest a simple scenario, where five Primary degree waves complete beyond the 17-DEC-2017 high; i.e. Primary-1 completed at the 2013 high, Primary-2 completed at the 2015 low, Primary-3 completed at the 2017 high, Primary-4 completed at the 2018 low, Primary-5 currently underway.

A failure of the bull market to create new all-time highs would suggest a complex scenario. Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing deflationary secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as Primary-W, the current potential 2019 bull market as Primary-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as Primary-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets.

At present, the simple scenario has been adopted until further development of wave structure.



BITSTAMP Support Zones:
4306, 3322, 2713, 2221

BITSTAMP Resistance Zones:
5198, 5898, 6390, 6882/7026, 7491
  

[Pab]

Thank you.Very much appreciate for charts
I have just sign to eliotwaves to learn a little
If it will works like mirror than 5200 is key level if break than we can get at 7k first stop

[estenity]

elliott waves deserve to be studied in cryptos.

[figmentofmyass]

in the simple impulsive scenario, i recognize that primary wave 3 can't be the shortest wave. but does wave 5 need to be so weak? we could go well into the 6-figure range without invalidating that count.

bitcoin tends towards strong wave 5s and it's really tough to see us correcting so long only to double top. the proportions just don't seem right for that either.

[DeathAngel]

Scebario B looks very, very unlikely to me.

Primary (Y) just surely can’t happen at this stage.

[g-uid]

Awesome.

Great to see that your interest in Bitcoin has been rekindled.

[cryptjh]

This is some really interesting charts you made, Elliott Waves are good indicators to see where the bitcoins price might go in the future. But bitcoins price are also dictated of what happens outside the crypto world, new adoptions or central banks that prints even more money than before can also push the price up.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

in the simple impulsive scenario, i recognize that primary wave 3 can't be the shortest wave. but does wave 5 need to be so weak? we could go well into the 6-figure range without invalidating that count.

bitcoin tends towards strong wave 5s and it's really tough to see us correcting so long only to double top. the proportions just don't seem right for that either.

Technically speaking, a normal wave-5 is only required to exceed the high of wave-3, albeit marginally.

Given that PRIMARY[3] wave was extended, there is a common relationship in this situation; where, PRIMARY[5] is equal to either 1 or 1.618 times the length from the low of PRIMARY[1] through to the high of PRIMARY[3] wave, projected from the low of PRIMARY[4] wave...

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

In theory, PRIMARY[5] could subdivide and extend like PRIMARY[3] wave; however, looking at over 100 years of Dow Jones Industrial Average Index data, this hasn't happened to waves of such degree.
 



 

[MarquiseMuseum]

Complex scenario can take longer to unfold, still too many small bag holders who refuse to capitulate in this stubborn market that's already the longest bear market on record, 1000-1800 btc slide can take an entire year more and then a few months sideways before slowly building momentum h2 2020. If this scenario happens, it is possible that altcoins will undergo a parabolic paradigm flip with decentralized exchanges or atomic swaps and phasing out of centralized entities, so there is alot of money to be made in that scenario either way.

Global bottom is probably already in at 100bn back in December which is May 2017 pre tether valuation (50bn global) ~60% annualized organic growth premium over 19 months.

Simple scenario can be extended to january 2021 at 90 000 & mid 2021 up to 300 000...

Short term there may be a +20-30% btc push/+50% altcoin rally with Easter reversal around the 20th and then bearish continuation until double bottom somewhere H2.

[YuginKadoya]

Well we can sure identify the movement of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies through this and by looking at the graph bitcoin really is starting to take turns now and coming back and recovering, This must be a hasty speculation for others that are thinking that Bull Run is now, But I might say we should look at some Waves to surely verify and determine the real movement of bitcoin but some say this is a principle of  identifying extremes in investor psychology and all is just an analytical speculation that the chart will form a pattern but I think this is a shot we can sure take a look on as a trader.

[SirLancelot]

Yes, you are very correct, this group is for speculation and speculations might not be exact but it is close to what we are looking for, I have speculated on the price couple number of times this year and I am seeing my exact prediction already coming to past and am so happy about it, not just because my prediction is coming to past but because we are starting to see a bull run in the price of crypto again.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/bf7dkc/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_easter_update/

Since the 15-DEC-2018 low, the Bitcoin markets have rebounded with a 75% gain into Easter 2019 —quite a resurrection from the 2018 bear market which saw an 85% decline in value. With price action unfolding in impulsive waves thus far, it is becoming increasingly apparent to suggest a bull market is underway.

A simple Eggiott Wave model would propose a five wave structure, consisting of three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:

Code:

Wave 1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave 2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave 3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave 4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave 5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?

The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years.

Timewise, the first two bull markets (Waves 1 and 3) elapsed 1142 days on average; and, the first two bear markets (Waves 2 and 4) elapsed 395 days on average. Bull markets have lasted almost three times longer than bear markets. Thus, an intuitive linear projection would propose the current third and final bull market (Wave 5) to complete by the year 2022 or earlier. However, since the current fifth and final Eggiott Wave is by typical definition only required to revisit or just exceed the high of the third wave, it may suggest the current bull market may be comparatively contracted in price and time.

The first Bitcoin halving occurred on 28-NOV-2012, approx midway through the first bull market. The second Bitcoin halving occurred on 09-JUL-2016, approx midway through the second bull market. The third Bitcoin halving is tentatively scheduled for 21-MAY-2020, perhaps midway through the third and final bull market or at the end?

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth and final wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127 calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…

Code:

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

Projected from the 15-DEC-2018 low, the aforementioned conservative price targets are a 630% to 1020% gain, or 825% on average. The average gain alone would be sufficient enough to qualify the current fifth and final PRIMARY[5] wave which would exceed the 2017 high of the third PRIMARY[3] wave, albeit marginally.

However, for the popular altcoins like LTC and ETH, an 825% gain projected from their 2018 lows would only retrace half of their respective bear markets. Even a 1000% gain in LTC and ETH would fail to match their 2017 all-time highs. Furthermore, there are altcoins such as LTC where the 2018 bear market low overlapped the high of their respective 2013 bull markets highs. Such a price overlap negates an impulsive wave structure, and thus would suggest a corrective wave structure as follows (indicative of price/structure, not time):





The short to medium term wave structure of Bitcoin thus far appears to be impulsively advancing from the orthodox 06-FEB-2019 bear market low, with maximum pullbacks at 11% on average. Four waves seem to have completed which have been classified as MINUTE degree —waves of such degree elapse from a few days to a week:

Code:

24-FEB: MINUTE[i]
27-FEB: MINUTE[ii]
10-APR: MINUTE[iii]
15-APR: MINUTE[iv]

The third MINUTE degree wave which completed on 10-APR, itself subdivided into five smaller impulsive waves classified as MINUETTE degree waves. A decline below the low of 15-APR would suggest MINUTE[iv] pullback is still in progress which ought to find support at the low of 04-APR. Otherwise however, it appears the final MINUTE[v] degree wave appears to be currently underway. Once MINUTE[v] completes, the first MINOR degree wave of the bull market will have completed, and the first largest pullback of the bull market will commence —perhaps an approx 30% decline. At this point in time, price will be required to decline to the 24-FEB high to terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market. The degree of wave labeling is currently tentative and subject to revision (i.e. may be either upgraded or downgraded in degree); however, the waves remain fixed.

Code:

BITSTAMP Support Zones:
5198, 4306, 3322, 2713, 2221

BITSTAMP Resistance Zones:
5898, 6390, 6882/7026, 7491

Charts are indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

[hisslyness]

I hope members here don’t discount your speculations. You were correct about the 2018 crash and some of your charts even shows the low...

Definitely have to emphasise it is all about price movement and not time!..

Also you don’t believe Primary 5 can generate more than 1.6x or anything more will not validate Elliot wave model?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I hope members here don’t discount your speculations. You were correct about the 2018 crash and some of your charts even shows the low...

Definitely have to emphasise it is all about price movement and not time!..

Also you don’t believe Primary 5 can generate more than 1.6x or anything more will not validate Elliot wave model?

Technically speaking, since PRIMARY[3] wasn't the shortest, the length of PRIMARY[5] is theoretically unlimited.

Usually when PRIMARY[3] overextends, and given the sizeable magnitude of PRIMARY[1] wave; it is often the case PRIMARY[5] is somewhere between 1 and 1.618 times the length of PRIMARY[1] through to PRIMARY[3] wave, projected from the PRIMARY[4] low.

In the event of a PRIMARY[5] extension, other Fibonacci-based multiples are: 1.786, 2, 2.236, 2.382, 2.5, 2.618, 2.786, 3, etc.

[pixie85]

I like that all of your scenarios are short term bullish. They are a bit different from what most people are drawing.

The most popular scenarios that you can see online predict that we will fail to break resistance at 6000 and go down from there, with bears seeing it as final capitulation below 3000 dollars and bulls as a drop to 4000, failure to break previous support and another try at 6000 later this year. You see much higher prices in the near future and I hope you are right.

What is your opinion about hyperwave theory supporters who say we need another leg down before we pass 6000?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

I like that all of your scenarios are short term bullish. They are a bit different from what most people are drawing.

The most popular scenarios that you can see online predict that we will fail to break resistance at 6000 and go down from there, with bears seeing it as final capitulation below 3000 dollars and bulls as a drop to 4000, failure to break previous support and another try at 6000 later this year. You see much higher prices in the near future and I hope you are right.

What is your opinion about hyperwave theory supporters who say we need another leg down before we pass 6000?

BITSTAMP quoted prices...

Have noted $5898 and $6390 as resistance levels, seeing that $6000 zone as temporary psychological resistance.
Currently thinking $6882 to $7026 may serve as technical resistance where the first notable pullback occurs.

Not studied Hyperwave in-depth, so can't comment on the theory. However, markets are fractal and so would consider 2013 as a Hyperwave top too.

At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000.

[Afrikoin]

I like that all of your scenarios are short term bullish. They are a bit different from what most people are drawing.

The most popular scenarios that you can see online predict that we will fail to break resistance at 6000 and go down from there, with bears seeing it as final capitulation below 3000 dollars and bulls as a drop to 4000, failure to break previous support and another try at 6000 later this year. You see much higher prices in the near future and I hope you are right.

What is your opinion about hyperwave theory supporters who say we need another leg down before we pass 6000?

BITSTAMP quoted prices...

Have noted $5898 and $6390 as resistance levels, seeing that $6000 zone as temporary psychological resistance.
Currently thinking $6882 to $7026 may serve as technical resistance where the first notable pullback occurs.

Not studied Hyperwave in-depth, so can't comment on the theory. However, markets are fractal and so would consider 2013 as a Hyperwave top too.

At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000.

"At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000."

That would get ugly.

There is a split between people on whether this is the impulse to a new wave

or it is some sort of correction, so could break back down and

either form a higher low and back up

or capitulate again.

I wonder what you make of this chart

EOS chart which perhaps might give us a clue where the market is

the triangle for me was some 4 or IV wave

and perhaps the rise from $1.55 was an ABC

I only ask because they two assets have had a correlation for a while with only a lag in time

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

"At this point, another leg down below the 06-FEB-2019 low, would suggest an ongoing bear market towards sub $1000."

That would get ugly.

There is a split between people on whether this is the impulse to a new wave or it is some sort of correction, so could break back down and either form a higher low and back up or capitulate again.

I wonder what you make of this chart EOS chart which perhaps might give us a clue where the market is the triangle for me was some 4 or IV wave and perhaps the rise from $1.55 was an ABC

I only ask because they two assets have had a correlation for a while with only a lag in time

Currently guessing the following with EOS, thinking perhaps a $10-$14 target range, beyond that may require an adjustment of the count...



Indicative of price/structure, not time.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

BITSTAMP Support Zones:

Code:

Zone 1: 4375 / 4320 / 4200 / 4080
Zone 2: 3820 / 3660

A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.