2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

BITSTAMP Support Zones:

Code:

5215, 4320

BITSTAMP Resistance Zones:

Code:

5920, 6410, 6900, 7030

[1713586417]

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[kronos123]

Happy to have found your new thread 2019

At the moment your analysis seems to be well aligned to the Bitcoin movement and, given the strong overbought and the climb of over 100% so far, so a last extension to the last strength you indicated about $ 7000, probably even for cut legs and short positions; from there I believe that a month of pause and correction will be necessary and healthy ...... we'll see!

Updates continue 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/bnrctv/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_sell_in_may_and/

Since the orthodox bear market low on 06-FEB-2019, the Bitcoin markets have surged to an average 125% gain in approx 100 days approaching mid-MAY. The 3-month rally has now retraced a Fibonacci 23.6% of the entire 2018 bear market. True to form, the bull market has exerted itself in a parabolic rise.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, five waves appear to have completed as follows:

Code:

+ Wave-1: 24-FEB
- Wave-2: 27-FEB
+ Wave-3: 23-APR
- Wave-4: 25-APR
+ Wave-5: 12-MAY (?)

Given the comparative magnitude and timeframe of the aforementioned waves, the waves are now being considered as MINOR degree. Barring any wave extensions, it appears five MINOR waves have completed, and thus completing the first INTERMEDIATE degree wave of the bull market. A wave of INTERMEDIATE degree usually elapses from weeks to months towards completion.

The expectation now suggests the first notable pullback of the bull market to imminently commence, unfolding in a three wave A-B-C structure. The following are averaged target zones for the pullback, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@5400: approx 50% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (minimum expected decline zone).

@4888: approx 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (average expected decline zone).

@4155: approx 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 11-MAY rally (maximum expected decline zone).

The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

A decline to the 06-FEB low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.





Once the pullback completes, the third and most powerful wave of the 2019+ bull market ought to commence towards the psychological $10,000 level and beyond.

Code:

BITSTAMP Resistance Zones:
7510, 8500, 9440, 11395, 13350

BITSTAMP Support Zones:
7030, 6900, 6410, 5920, 5215, 4320

Since 2016, both the stockmarket and Bitcoin markets have been in synchronisation: both started bull markets in 2016, both had bear markets in 2018, both resumed bull markets in 2019.

Seasonally, the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage is currently being expressed in the stockmarket.

Since the beginning of May, the Dow Jones has declined 4.50% —the largest decline since the 2019 bull market commenced.

Should the Bitcoin markets decline in MAY, a continued synchronisation may suggest further declines in the stockmarket.

A break below the 25-MAR low of 25,370 in the Dow Jones may suggest further declines, a break below the 11-MAR low of 25,200 would confirm a stockmarket pullback to be underway. If so, an approx 10% decline in the stockmarket towards Dow Jones 24,000 may be expected, followed by resumption of the bull market to new all-time highs. A rise above Dow Jones 26,500 ought to obviate the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage.



Analysis is speculative, and charts are indicative of price/structure —not time. The projections may occur sooner or later than anticipated, perhaps not at all…!

[Bitcoinwaist]

good stuff bro thank you 

[tyz]

Thanks a lot for your in-depth analysis. I have been following your thread (including the previous one) since Spring 2018 as one of the very few in speculation section. After this year, I must say that you were close to reality with many predictions. Keep up your great work!

[kronos123]

There is little to do, in the end Bitcoin always amazes everyone and does what it wants!
Hardly anyone, I believe, expected such a steep and continuous climb, and without any pause; I'm almost afraid that at this point the scenario B proposed by OP in the opening post may occur: an almost continuous climb for almost all summer and then a new and violent vertical dip!


Scenario B (Complex)

[buwaytress]

Definitely one of those slow burn threads, under the radar and well worth reading, whether or not you buy into it. Like that OP admits in first post already this is purely speculative guesswork (Cause that's all TA really is, not matter what the experts want you to believe!).

Sell in May and then go away, huh? First time I've heard that, but you know, Bitcoin's been making powerful strides this entire half of the month so far, so yeah, I agree it's pretty scary that if we don't see the pullback soon, which should have happened even at 6.3, then 7k, then we're chipping away yet again at the long term lifeline. Of course, this could all just be meaningless once 10k is hit and then we don't ever look back.

[pixie85]

I was expecting a drop at 6500 or even before that and mirrored it in my trades. I made some money but not nearly what I could have made if I knew this scenario is going to happen.

We can clearly see that the bullish momentum is not stopping with still big volume and a very similar pattern to the one two days ago. Will it mean another small pump? The chart really starts to look like one of those bubble charts in 2013 and 2017 where the price corrects only a little and gains twice more and repeats it again and again.

[kronos123]

@buwaytress
Obviously AT is all speculation and everything is true / false until it is confirmed by the graphs, but OP seemed at the beginning to exclude scenario B, the unrealistic one, because it is too extreme, while now the graphs show a greater correlation with it.

Finally, I don't understand why you say that if Bitcoin hits the 10k then it loses meaning; from the graph of OP it seems instead that Bitcoin can be pushed up to $ 11000, or little more, that should be really 50% of retracement of the whole movement from 19k to 3k.

All that remains is to wait and see in another month.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Parabolic price curves are driven by mania and euphoria, and since 25-APR-2019, the Bitcoin markets have manifested its first one for the 2019+ bull market. Such price action is often challenging to navigate using technical analysis in an attempt to quantify the qualitative.  

From an Elliott Wave perspective, the parabolic rise from 25-APR to 14-MAY is currently being considered as a final fifth wave of an overall 1-2-3-4-5 sequence which began on 06-FEB-2019.

The overall wave structure still currently suggests a looming pullback to commence imminently.

At this juncture, any price advance beyond the 14-MAY high is being considered as an irregular wave-B. Using BITSTAMP prices, the following are price target zones for such a scenario:

Code:

@8505: wave-B = wave-A * 1.236%
@8610: wave-B = wave-A * 1.382%
@8695: wave-B = wave-A * 1.500%
@8780: wave-B = wave-A * 1.618%

There is no minimum required criteria to qualify an irregular wave-B, a marginal high above the orthodox top is sufficient. Hence, neither of the aforementioned target zones are required to be reached. However, the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B is 1.618 times the length of wave-A, and so beyond would require a revised wave structure.

Assuming the 14-MAY orthodox high has completed a wave cycle, the following provides averaged zones to target the first notable pullback of the 2019+ bull market, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@5780: approx 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (min expected decline zone).
@5175: approx 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (avg expected decline zone).
@4315: approx 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (max expected decline zone).

The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, representing a 40% price decline, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

The stockmarket has confirmed the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage; after a forthcoming bounce, the stockmarket is excepted to sell-off over the early summer, declining approx 10% from the MAY high towards approx Dow Jones 24,000.

Bitcoin markets are yet to confirm the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage, a drop below the 14-MAY low, i.e. BITSTAMP 7620, ought to provide the signal.



Indicative of price/structure, not time.
  

[BMG86]

OP, what are your current thoughts on Bitcoins movements now? It seems like your complex scenario is coming into play with the parabolic moves bitcoin has been making with only minor pullbacks.

Also, now everyone seems to be screaming bitcoin to one million dollars again. It reminds me of December 2017 when bitcoin was in its euphoria stage.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, the Bitcoin markets have gained an approx 160% thus far into MAY-2019.

The largest pullback of this 3-month uptrend occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX.

The wave structure still suggests five impulsive waves completed from the 06-FEB low to the 14-MAY high.

Since the mini flash crash low on 17-MAY, the markets have risen between 30%-45% thus far, varying between the exchanges; however, price action has currently unfolded in three waves. This is currently suggesting the mini flash crash low was a wave-A decline, and the current advance an irregular wave-B, as part of an ongoing correction.

Using BITFINEX prices, an exchange which didn’t exhibit a pronounced mini flash crash during mid-MAY, the following common Fibonacci-based irregular wave-B target zones can be calculated:

Code:

@8670: wave-B = wave-A * 1.236
@8870: wave-B = wave-A * 1.382
@9030: wave-B = wave-A * 1.500
@9190: wave-B = wave-A * 1.618

There is no minimum required criteria to qualify an irregular wave-B, a marginal high above the orthodox top is sufficient. However, the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B is 1.618 times the length of wave-A, and so beyond may require a revised outlook.

9200/BITFINEX and 9760/BITSTAMP is the maximum tolerable extent of an irregular wave-B. Given the wide price range across multiple exchanges, it is challenging to pinpoint which exchange measures the true tolerable price extent of the irregular wave-B.

Continuing to assume the 14-MAY orthodox high has completed a wave cycle, the following provides averaged zones to target the first notable pullback of the 2019+ bull market, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@6080: approx 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (min expected decline zone).
@5385: approx 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (avg expected decline zone).
@4430: approx 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of 06-FEB to 14-MAY rally (max expected decline zone).

The first notable pullback of the 2015-2017 bull market retraced approx 78.6% in size, elapsing approx 6 months until late AUG-2015.

A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the proposed wave structure, and quite possibly the bull market.



Indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

[exstasie]

Thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. It's always nice to see some potential wave counts. This looks plausible.

It looks like your predicted A of (2) is an expanded flat. What probability would you give to a running flat instead?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. It's always nice to see some potential wave counts. This looks plausible.

It looks like your predicted A of (2) is an expanded flat. What probability would you give to a running flat instead?

Its a possibility, but rare. It would be an unnecessary complication denoting a strong bounce to follow.
Simple structures are given priority and anticipated first, and then adjusted if required.
Personally would expect the mini flash crash low to be revisited, completing an overall Expanded Flat structure.
A Running Flat is more likely to occur at the end of a pullback, not half-way through it.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is a very good analysis because Elliot can apply with his theory, however, it is just a mathematical tool. Have you not applied ELLIOT when the bitcoin is entangling? I mean for me it is always true in Bullih Tendency or Bearish Tendency, in fact you can check it in the graph, but in the current stage of the market it is difficult to forecast it, since it is invalidated many times in the accumulation and distribution stages of the market.

[MrPresident]

since what is invalidated?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

since what is invalidated?

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

[fabiorem]

since what is invalidated?

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

[figmentofmyass]

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

if his count is correct, then this is only the first of two legs down. the bounce in between would probably take some weeks to complete. sometimes B waves drag out a long time.

[kronos123]

It is a very good analysis because Elliot can apply with his theory, however, it is just a mathematical tool. Have you not applied ELLIOT when the bitcoin is entangling? I mean for me it is always true in Bullih Tendency or Bearish Tendency, in fact you can check it in the graph, but in the current stage of the market it is difficult to forecast it, since it is invalidated many times in the accumulation and distribution stages of the market.

In fact OP tries to give its subjective evaluation of the market; AT is always valid AFTER, when there is a clear and definitive graph .... you can never be 100% certain of a trend until it is confirmed, or denied, by prices and the graph.

Here is why OP has indicated two possible scenarios from now until 2020.