2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[adaseb]

About 10 years ago when I started to trade stocks I learnt of the Elliott Wave method and was intriged by it. I basically got all the courses, ebooks and other trading material on Elliott Wave type of trading.

I even had a type of software that would search all the stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq and would find ones that gave a signal. However the issues with Elliot Wave was this...

It works great in hindsight... however its very difficult to use in real time.

I would lose money constantely and decided to drop it all together. I think if you want to use EW then you need to use some other form of TA such as trends, moving averages, support/resistance, etc.

[1713557086]

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[Febo]

since what is invalidated?

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

Amazing. That is only $200 higher then my prediction from 20th march  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5122750.msg50259426#msg50259426   I speculated the bear trap will be in full motion at that time.

[exstasie]

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

Amazing. That is only $200 higher then my prediction from 20th march  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5122750.msg50259426#msg50259426   I speculated the bear trap will be in full motion at that time.

We can call it amazing when it actually happens.

I've seen some decent wave analysis suggesting the primary wave hasn't terminated yet as the OP believes. It will take some time to determine who is correct about that. Here are some alternative ideas:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/PvHsXRVl-Bitcoin-price-overview-waves-06-06-2019/
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gTJaNkxb-Bitcoin-price-overview-waves-04-06-2019/

[fabiorem]

since what is invalidated?

Nothing is invalidated.

—If the 30-MAY high is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.
—If the 06-FEB low is exceeded, then the proposed Elliott Wave count is invalidated.

For now, the proposed Elliott Wave model remains on course for an average decline towards 5300, perhaps by mid-JUL.

Seems likely to happen earlier, as it fell $1500 by now. $5300 by the end of this month.

Amazing. That is only $200 higher then my prediction from 20th march  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5122750.msg50259426#msg50259426   I speculated the bear trap will be in full motion at that time.

In that standard bubble chart, it would be the "first sell off" and "bear trap" phase. I believe we are already on it, because it fell $1500 in just some days. Some bearwhales are in a hurry to be trapped. The "despair" phase from the previous bubble is already over, and we are back to the mean.

[wwzsocki]

I see nothing wrong in this pullbacks. I would be rather afraid if the price will go up even higher to 10K or more without any drawbacks.

This is normal price action and we have seen it already a few times during the last few years.

30, 50 or 70% drop after such a spike is common and was expected. All indicators signaled such a course of action.

Maybe these shorter time intervals are not so clear but if someone is watching the weekly chart for the BTC price, then everything is clear as for a preschooler.

It is surprising that someone could be surprised by the recent drops and even lose money.

Returning to the main topic, I think that the OP analysis is very interesting and will probably work.

[kronos123]

About 10 years ago when I started to trade stocks I learnt of the Elliott Wave method and was intriged by it. I basically got all the courses, ebooks and other trading material on Elliott Wave type of trading.

I even had a type of software that would search all the stocks on NYSE and Nasdaq and would find ones that gave a signal. However the issues with Elliot Wave was this...

It works great in hindsight... however its very difficult to use in real time.

I would lose money constantely and decided to drop it all together. I think if you want to use EW then you need to use some other form of TA such as trends, moving averages, support/resistance, etc.

Exactly, that's exactly what I tried to make clear in my previous post; all the AT and more with the Elliot waves one has the certainty AFTER that the prices are shown in the graph.
AT in general, Elliot, Gann, Fibonacci, etc. they can help the trader or the investor but they will never be perfect sciences, otherwise we would all be rich and we would follow the same rules and indicators.

[Oilacris]

I see nothing wrong in this pullbacks. I would be rather afraid if the price will go up even higher to 10K or more without any drawbacks.

This is normal price action and we have seen it already a few times during the last few years.

30, 50 or 70% drop after such a spike is common and was expected. All indicators signaled such a course of action.

Maybe these shorter time intervals are not so clear but if someone is watching the weekly chart for the BTC price, then everything is clear as for a preschooler.

It is surprising that someone could be surprised by the recent drops and even lose money.

Returning to the main topic, I think that the OP analysis is very interesting and will probably work.

I'm even surprised that most people do react or being shocked when theres a sudden plunged on btc price after a

price rally without even realizing that the thing they do like to see is like having an unlimited boost up without

even realizing that a healthy market do always have that price pullback or correction.

About Elliot Wave thing,im aware of this stuff when I'm still on Forex but I don't think it would be more precise or
applicable on crypto market.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Idealized guesswork Elliott Wave model, indicative of price/structure, not time...

Code:

19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME  Futures Expiry

 

[BMG86]

To me it looks more like your Complex scenario is playing out. We are going up very fast with only minor pullbacks. We may see 11k+ in the next week or 2 at this rate.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/c1vg8o/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_solstice_update/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market which began from the lows of 06-FEB-2019, has now retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into JUN-2019.

The largest pullback of this bull market occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX. Afterwards, from mid-MAY to mid-JUN, price action produced a choppy sideways affair elapsing a month with no clear direction.

Consequently, it was expected the first wave of the bull market had completed, and the first notable pullback of the bull market was imminently underway, correlating with the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage which gripped the stockmarket. This has proved to be incorrect. The month of choppy sideways price action has resolved with a breakout to the upside, necessitating a revision to the Elliott Wave model…



The characteristics of the 2019 bull market thus far, can be summarised by the following revised Elliott Wave model:

Code:

+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR): subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR): a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY): a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN): a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (09-JUN —      ?): a parabolic rise?

The final and fifth wave of the waveset appears to be underway since 09-JUN. The following price zones speculate where this may terminate; using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@9440:  Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@11390: Fibonacci 50.0% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.

The first aforementioned Fibonacci zone has already been reached; hence, there is a possibility to suggest the uptrend has either completed, or is nearing completion.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) passively tracks the price of Bitcoin, but trades on the OTC markets from Mon to Fri during the hours of US equity markets. The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves; at this point in time a drop to 10.8 is required to suggest the uptrend is complete…



Once the uptrend concludes, it completes the first notable advance of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market. At which point, a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement may be expected for the first notable pullback of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market; perhaps commencing in the week of the Solstice and elapsing a couple of months over the summer lull. Afterwards, the bull market is expected to parabolically reignite by the early autumn and head towards new all-time highs in 2020.

The long-term overall Elliott Wave model suggests four PRIMARY degree waves completed from mid-2010 to early-2019, and the fifth advancing wave is currently underway. Waves of PRIMARY degree elapse from a few months to a couple of years.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…

Code:

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.



Notable dates and seasonal esoteric trivia…

Code:

17-JUN-2019: Full Moon
19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
21-JUN-2019: Solstice
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry

Guesswork is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

[figmentofmyass]

thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. i was looking forward to a revision of the count.

i'm partial to the scenario where (1) completes ~$12k. looking at the proportions of the internal waves 1 and 3, i expect a more pronounced fifth wave than this quick push above $9k.

[BMG86]

2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/c1vg8o/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_solstice_update/

The 2019 Bitcoin bull market which began from the lows of 06-FEB-2019, has now retraced a Fibonacci 38.2% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into JUN-2019.

The largest pullback of this bull market occurred from 14-MAY to 17-MAY, where a mini flash crash saw a rapid sell-off of up to 25% declines on multiple exchanges, notably pronounced on BITSTAMP and BITMEX. Afterwards, from mid-MAY to mid-JUN, price action produced a choppy sideways affair elapsing a month with no clear direction.

Consequently, it was expected the first wave of the bull market had completed, and the first notable pullback of the bull market was imminently underway, correlating with the “Sell In May And Go Away” adage which gripped the stockmarket. This has proved to be incorrect. The month of choppy sideways price action has resolved with a breakout to the upside, necessitating a revision to the Elliott Wave model…



The characteristics of the 2019 bull market thus far, can be summarised by the following revised Elliott Wave model:

Code:

+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR): subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR): a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY): a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN): a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (09-JUN —      ?): a parabolic rise?

The final and fifth wave of the waveset appears to be underway since 09-JUN. The following price zones speculate where this may terminate; using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@9440:  Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@11390: Fibonacci 50.0% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.

The first aforementioned Fibonacci zone has already been reached; hence, there is a possibility to suggest the uptrend has either completed, or is nearing completion.

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) passively tracks the price of Bitcoin, but trades on the OTC markets from Mon to Fri during the hours of US equity markets. The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves; at this point in time a drop to 10.8 is required to suggest the uptrend is complete…



Once the uptrend concludes, it completes the first notable advance of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market. At which point, a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement may be expected for the first notable pullback of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market; perhaps commencing in the week of the Solstice and elapsing a couple of months over the summer lull. Afterwards, the bull market is expected to parabolically reignite by the early autumn and head towards new all-time highs in 2020.

The long-term overall Elliott Wave model suggests four PRIMARY degree waves completed from mid-2010 to early-2019, and the fifth advancing wave is currently underway. Waves of PRIMARY degree elapse from a few months to a couple of years.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BNC:BLX) index…

Code:

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.



Notable dates and seasonal esoteric trivia…

Code:

17-JUN-2019: Full Moon
19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
21-JUN-2019: Solstice
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry

Guesswork is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

[guoyu78]

The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Price is NEVER going down to under 6 thousand dollars from now on, it would require a lot of pull backs all in a row without a proper increase in between and that is unlikely to happen, how could it go down constantly without going up on a bull market time, its not like we went above 20 thousand dollars neither so there are still a lot of support and very little resistance left.

I don't use charts that much but even looking at the price and how it moved in the past 2 months we can clearly say its going up for now until an undecided date.

[fabiorem]

The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Thats because Eliott wave analysis works better after the movement happened, not before. Like the OP said, the chart indicates price and structure, but not the time of it.

Personally, I dont believe anymore that we are going to see 5k at the end of this month. If it was to be like that the price would have fall back to 6k during the recent $1500 "correction". Also I believe we have more hodlers now than we had two months ago, and all this FUD about CSW, Satoshi, etc, are making the hodlers more resilient, just to make opposition to the bad actors.

You can notice the OP moved the 5k to September, to maintain the wave analysis, but after August the price will probably go to full recovery mode. It would made more sense if the low is put at 7k, giving a 5k range between it and 12k.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

thanks for the update, xxxx123abcxxxx. i was looking forward to a revision of the count.

i'm partial to the scenario where (1) completes ~$12k. looking at the proportions of the internal waves 1 and 3, i expect a more pronounced fifth wave than this quick push above $9k.

Quite possibly at a juncture here with two options; either...

• 1. the final wave-5 from the 09-JUN low has completed at the 17-JUN high (Full Moon!), and the top is already complete at the 9440 BITSTAMP zone; or
• 2. the final wave-5 is going to subdivide and extend further towards the 11390 BITSTAMP zone, or beyond.

A loss of 10.8/GBTC and 8200/BTC ought to give credence to the first scenario.


 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.

For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.

At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:

• 1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
• 2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.

 

[BMG86]

Do you still see the possibility of your Complex Scenario B playing out?

Yes, it is still possible that this is a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, termed as a wave-x, in an ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market, which fails to meet the all-time 2017 high.

For now however, the waves appear to be developing impulsively and suggesting a wave-5 is unfolding, eventually towards meeting or exceeding the all-time 2017 high.

At this point in time, a wave-x may develop in the following two scenarios:

• 1. A drop below the 09-JUN low, followed by an advance towards either 11390 or 13340 which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
• 2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.

 

Thank you for your input.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

The revision basically shows that "it could always be wrong" and now we are seeing another chart, look if the first one didn't happen and market reacted differently than you expected then there is a big chance the second may not happen neither, or maybe it will but that will not because you "got it right" since you already assumed it would go down and it didn't.

Yes, the revised Elliott Wave model may still be incorrect. Technical Analysis is not objective. This is a subjective discipline in attempt to quantify qualitative speculation.

If any system provided absolute 100% predictability, would there be free will...?

The marketplace is based on probabilities, perhaps even based on random walk hypothesis; the endeavor of Elliott Wave and other Technical Analysis is an attempt to forecast market trends.

Like the weather, the market is a natural phenomena. Climatologists will look for causality in global warming using climate change; likewise, economists will look for causality in price stability using monetary policy.

Both are natural cycles which we mostly react towards, and seldom influence. Truth is, no seismologist can predict the magnitude of an earthquake, no climatologist can predict the El Nino, and no economist can predict the market. All models are subjective and adapt to new incoming information, your role is to determine the most probabilistic outcome, perhaps even intuitively.
 

Thats because Eliott wave analysis works better after the movement happened, not before. Like the OP said, the chart indicates price and structure, but not the time of it.

Personally, I dont believe anymore that we are going to see 5k at the end of this month. If it was to be like that the price would have fall back to 6k during the recent $1500 "correction". Also I believe we have more hodlers now than we had two months ago, and all this FUD about CSW, Satoshi, etc, are making the hodlers more resilient, just to make opposition to the bad actors.

You can notice the OP moved the 5k to September, to maintain the wave analysis, but after August the price will probably go to full recovery mode. It would made more sense if the low is put at 7k, giving a 5k range between it and 12k.

Once a top can be confirmed, more accurate pullback targets can be defined.
For example, if the market tops at say $12,000; then a typical 50% or 61.8% retrace would be around $7500 or $6500 respectively.

 

[oarmas]

Hey xxxx123abcxxxx:  love your updates.  Have you considered the possibility that primary 3 may be primary 5  (or maybe primary 1) and we're in a longer correction.  The FIB time allowance for this is that the down trend should cover the aggregated of time for the lesser degree waves 2 and 4 which is about 987 FIB days, suggesting an end to the cycle by Sep 2020.  This would match the last major halving, now that the banking system has to adjust their fiat money printing to bitcoin expansion, this would imply a major slowdown in M2 expansion, or if the trend stays at 4% growth a doubling of the bitcoin price every six months until M2 slows down.  Bitcoin slows to 2% growth on May 23 2020, it currently matches the M2 expansion of around 4%.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Hey xxxx123abcxxxx:  love your updates.  Have you considered the possibility that primary 3 may be primary 5  (or maybe primary 1) and we're in a longer correction.  The FIB time allowance for this is that the down trend should cover the aggregated of time for the lesser degree waves 2 and 4 which is about 987 FIB days, suggesting an end to the cycle by Sep 2020.  This would match the last major halving, now that the banking system has to adjust their fiat money printing to bitcoin expansion, this would imply a major slowdown in M2 expansion, or if the trend stays at 4% growth a doubling of the bitcoin price every six months until M2 slows down.  Bitcoin slows to 2% growth on May 23 2020, it currently matches the M2 expansion of around 4%.

Personally only see three waves from 2010 to 2017 so far. Therefore, currently thinking either:

1. its an A-B-C (with complex bear market underway): https://i.imgur.com/zlRbhhX.png
2. or, its a 1-2-3 (with 4 complete, and 5 underway): https://i.imgur.com/TnylE6A.png

Either of your suggested possibilities will conclude with the first A-B-C scenario.

Only used Fibonacci with price, not time —so no experience there to comment. Nevertheless the following are time-based thoughts:

Code:

Wave 1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave 2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave 3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave 4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave 5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?

The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years.

Timewise, the first two bull markets (Waves 1 and 3) elapsed 1142 days on average; and, the first two bear markets (Waves 2 and 4) elapsed 395 days on average. Bull markets have lasted almost three times longer than bear markets. Thus, an intuitive linear projection would propose the current third and final bull market (Wave 5) to complete by the year 2022 or earlier.

However, since the current fifth and final Elliott Wave is by typical definition only required to revisit or just exceed the high of the third wave, it may suggest the current bull market may be comparatively contracted in price and time —if the waves do not subdivide and extend.