2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Using price against the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) —a momentum oscillator used in traditional classical Technical Analysis to determine overbought and oversold market conditions; it can be observed...

1. Daily oversold price/RSI positive divergence occurred during DEC-2018, which marked a key market bottom.
2. Daily overbought price/RSI negative divergence occurred during MAY-2019, which may mark a key market top.



If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

Markets usually take the stairs up, and the escalator down. The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 17-JUN high (thus far) is 131 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 65 days, it may be over by the end of AUG.

Should this be correct, the approx expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@6300: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@5500: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@4480: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)

Code:

19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

[oarmas]

Thanks for your thoughts, one of the reasons for my thinking is the current primary three on the S and P (SPY) is looking like a 10-16 year wave and bitcoin has been aligning to the stock market cycles surprisingly closely (Wave 3 high in Dec 2017 with the stocks high two months later, lows almost perfect alignment Dec 18), which suggests this next bull market may be much longer than anyone anticipates. 
The problem, as you noted in your post, is my timing and wave count for btc don't match the overall appearance of the wave.  Even if I was correct, the projected bull market should start at least six months before the halving, so the btc count would not meet the FIB time projection. 
The stock market gurus, as you are well aware, called the end of the Feb - Oct 18 wave major 1, not a primary.  How would btc look, if that approach were taken? 
Fundamentals (btc vs fiat) indicate this next bull cycle will be epic, as the banks will have a very hard time bringing M2 growth down to 2%, the projected growth of btc after next May.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks for your thoughts, one of the reasons for my thinking is the current primary three on the S and P (SPY) is looking like a 10-16 year wave and bitcoin has been aligning to the stock market cycles surprisingly closely (Wave 3 high in Dec 2017 with the stocks high two months later, lows almost perfect alignment Dec 18), which suggests this next bull market may be much longer than anyone anticipates. 
The problem, as you noted in your post, is my timing and wave count for btc don't match the overall appearance of the wave.  Even if I was correct, the projected bull market should start at least six months before the halving, so the btc count would not meet the FIB time projection. 
The stock market gurus, as you are well aware, called the end of the Feb - Oct 18 wave major 1, not a primary.  How would btc look, if that approach were taken? 
Fundamentals (btc vs fiat) indicate this next bull cycle will be epic, as the banks will have a very hard time bringing M2 growth down to 2%, the projected growth of btc after next May.

At the moment, currently seeing the main indices of the US stockmarket (i.e. S&P500 and Dow Jones) in PRIMARY wave-5.

If PRIMARY wave-5 equals the length of PRIMARY wave-1 (from 2009-2011), then the Dow Jones may travel towards approx 38,000 —barring any wave subdivisions and extensions.

Dow Jones 1915-2019


Dow Jones 2008-2019

 

[kronos123]

 

Thanks for the latest updates, personally I agree on this latest wave chart that you posted, and that is a 50% Fibonacci retracement test up to $ 11,500, and then go back to testing the long-term support in the area again $ 5000.

What I disagree with, however, is the new Bitcoin ATH which indicates in 2020-21 to about $ 35,000; I believe that the FOMO that will be born and will be unleashed in the next few years will bring Bitcoin and the whole market at VERY higher prices than the previous ones.
All the "old" banking / financial world is about to enter, and when it does, even with only a fraction of 1-2% of the immense available liquidity, the values and prices of today's crypts will explode like never before.

[WinslowIII]

Using price against the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) —a momentum oscillator used in traditional classical Technical Analysis to determine overbought and oversold market conditions; it can be observed...

1. Daily oversold price/RSI positive divergence occurred during DEC-2018, which marked a key market bottom.
2. Daily overbought price/RSI negative divergence occurred during MAY-2019, which may mark a key market top.



If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

Markets usually take the stairs up, and the escalator down. The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 17-JUN high (thus far) is 131 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 65 days, it may be over by the end of AUG.

Should this be correct, the approx expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@6300: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@5500: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@4480: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)

Code:

19-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CBOE Futures Expiry
19-JUN-2019: FOMC Fed Interest Rate Decision
28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

I'm expecting something like this as well, but not because of Elliot wave charts, but because of what happened before, during and after the last litecoin halving. I expect a big crash in August, which is litecoin's halving. Will pick back up in November to start the next bull run, the market will also be long due for a shakeout. This will basically be the last chance for a healthy market shakeout before the next halving is right around the corner and only a fool would sell.

[exstasie]

If the current wave-5 does not subdivide and extend further, it would suggest the first leg of the 2019 Bitcoin bull market is complete; and, the first notable pullback may be commencing.

I'm expecting something like this as well, but not because of Elliot wave charts, but because of what happened before, during and after the last litecoin halving. I expect a big crash in August, which is litecoin's halving. Will pick back up in November to start the next bull run, the market will also be long due for a shakeout. This will basically be the last chance for a healthy market shakeout before the next halving is right around the corner and only a fool would sell.

Timing is so difficult to predict but I'm operating off similar estimates.....a bearish August and September is in the cards.

I think the above chart has already been invalidated. The current Wave 5 is now extending so the alternative to ~$12K posted here is more likely.

The Litecoin halving hype is still in effect; LTCUSD looks like it's consolidating below the highs, waiting for Bitcoin to pullback, after which LTCBTC will rally again and another round of FOMO will follow. After this next leg up though, it becomes increasingly likely a major correction will occur as we approach the halving date. A strong enough dump in Litecoin after the magnitude of the recent rally will probably have tangible effects on supply and demand in BTCUSD and help finally trigger the long awaited correction in BTC. Bears thought the correction would come at $6K, then $10K. Maybe it'll finally happen at $12K or $13K.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario  - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.
 

[WinslowIII]

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario  - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.
 

"with no return"
You're a funny guy.

[BMG86]

Great work as always. I wonder what your opinion is if we consider the case is complex wxy...
Another Primary ABC? or start of an impulse wave?
I find the complex scenario more likely considering volume and other psychological reasons, and also if we consider this rise as a huge B or X wave - If the analyst can easily say to himself - there is something wrong with this market - which is a little connected to this weird and rapid rise...

however considering the bull scenario  - 4th waves tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree - When we consider this issue the 4th primary wave which ended at 3148 is exactly the same as the previous fourth wave of one lesser degree in August 2017. So that also makes sense and seems like we do not have to retrace anymore.

So confusing times..

If the W-X-Y scenario is underway (i.e. a secular bear market), then the next secular bull market cycle will be expected to unfold in an A-B-C structure once again —but not necessarily in the same pattern or timespan again.

The risk with the W-X-Y scenario, is that it has the potential to completely collapse the market with no return — i.e. a collapse of a true bubble.
 

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

Yes, this is possible. However, it will be labelled as currently in the X wave of an WXY correction —see Scenario B (Complex) here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
 

[sedactoo+04]

While I don't know much about Elliot wave, but is it possible we are currently in the B wave of an ABC correction? I.e. wave A is from 20k -3k?. This 'bull market' seems very fishy as we've already retraced more than 50 percent from the bear market.

Yes, this is possible. However, it will be labelled as currently in the X wave of an WXY correction —see Scenario B (Complex) here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
 

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

[exstasie]

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

It's okay not to be convinced, but make sure to stay open to alternative theories. The biggest pitfall of EW analysis is getting married to a specific count, then continually reworking the count as it gets repeatedly invalidated. I struggled with this a lot years ago. Sometimes being "not convinced for the bull" really means "I can't see past my bear bias."

This is why it's good to always have at least two different counts you are tracking. Which count is ultimately correct may only be obvious in hindsight, hence the danger of becoming too attached to the wrong one.

My thoughts are definitely more in line with xxxx123abcxxxx's bull count. Of course, we won't be able to discard the complex bear correction scenario for quite some time yet.

[sedactoo+04]

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

It's okay not to be convinced, but make sure to stay open to alternative theories. The biggest pitfall of EW analysis is getting married to a specific count, then continually reworking the count as it gets repeatedly invalidated. I struggled with this a lot years ago. Sometimes being "not convinced for the bull" really means "I can't see past my bear bias."

This is why it's good to always have at least two different counts you are tracking. Which count is ultimately correct may only be obvious in hindsight, hence the danger of becoming too attached to the wrong one.

My thoughts are definitely more in line with xxxx123abcxxxx's bull count. Of course, we won't be able to discard the complex bear correction scenario for quite some time yet.

you are totally right my friend... thanks for warning me. Unfortunately, EW has that downside. However the main reason why I am not convinced is the volume and altcoin movements. Of course I am aware of one of the biggest reasons for the 2017 bull start was the tether printing which we have again... But still the volume is not convincing for me...
But again I agree with marrying a specific count issue, that is one of my weaknesses too... I was so convinced that the bear has not ended so maybe still I am trapped in that phase.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

It's okay not to be convinced, but make sure to stay open to alternative theories. The biggest pitfall of EW analysis is getting married to a specific count, then continually reworking the count as it gets repeatedly invalidated. I struggled with this a lot years ago. Sometimes being "not convinced for the bull" really means "I can't see past my bear bias."

This is why it's good to always have at least two different counts you are tracking. Which count is ultimately correct may only be obvious in hindsight, hence the danger of becoming too attached to the wrong one.

My thoughts are definitely more in line with xxxx123abcxxxx's bull count. Of course, we won't be able to discard the complex bear correction scenario for quite some time yet.

you are totally right my friend... thanks for warning me. Unfortunately, EW has that downside. However the main reason why I am not convinced is the volume and altcoin movements. Of course I am aware of one of the biggest reasons for the 2017 bull start was the tether printing which we have again... But still the volume is not convincing for me...
But again I agree with marrying a specific count issue, that is one of my weaknesses too... I was so convinced that the bear has not ended so maybe still I am trapped in that phase.

Whilst is does appear and feel like the wave-x complex scenario is playing out; the details show the waves are so far unfolding impulsively, and thus implying the wave-5 simple scenario is currently in progress.

Either of the following situations are required to qualify the wave-x scenario:

1. A drop below the 06-JUN low, followed by another advance which develops in corrective waves instead of impulsive; or,
2. A drop below the 06-FEB low.



The market has now surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2018 bear market. The next major Fibonacci retracements are:

1. the 61.8% (13350/BITSTAMP)
2. the 78.6% (16125/BITSTAMP)

Given such Fibonacci levels are widely observed, it is unlikely the market terminates precisely at these levels.

A monthly view of the wave structure illustrates the sizes of the impulsive waves, since the 2019 bull market began from the FEB lows; using BITFINEX:

• wave-1: 67%
• wave-3: 63%
• wave-5: 59% (so far, 25-JUN)

At this point in time, another 10% for wave-5, and it meets the average of wave-1 and wave-3.

The following 4hr chart provides a speculative view of how wave-5 may be currently unfolding, since the 06-JUN lows; using COINBASE:



Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.

Code:

28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

  

[drays]

Guys, sorry for spoiling this pure technical discussion (which I don't fully understand, but appreciate a lot regardless), just wanted to talk about fundamentals a little bit. Does anyone think this rally could have been fueled by Libra announcement, with general masses getting aware (or getting reminded) of cryptocurrency. Facebook with its sheep userbase could be a major factor in adoption (or better to say, in awareness) of Bitcoin; where I live people are pretty skeptical in general (and in regards to Bitcoin specifically), Bitcoin awareness is maybe 1000x less than participation in FB. Few people already referred to FB cryptocurrency in our conversations - those were the ones who know about Bitcoin, but never considered it seriously.
From the other hand, I am not sure a pure announcement could have such an impact.

Any opinions?

P.S. Greetings to xxxx123abcxxxx . I was not posting here, but I surely read this thread. Didn't post, just because the main point of our disagreement on the old thread seems to be resolved (hopefully), and here we see pure technical, quite interesting analysis, without questionable long-term predictions you were making in the old thread.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Guys, sorry for spoiling this pure technical discussion (which I don't fully understand, but appreciate a lot regardless), just wanted to talk about fundamentals a little bit. Does anyone think this rally could have been fueled by Libra announcement, with general masses getting aware (or getting reminded) of cryptocurrency. Facebook with its sheep userbase could be a major factor in adoption (or better to say, in awareness) of Bitcoin; where I live people are pretty skeptical in general (and in regards to Bitcoin specifically), Bitcoin awareness is maybe 1000x less than participation in FB. Few people already referred to FB cryptocurrency in our conversations - those were the ones who know about Bitcoin, but never considered it seriously.
From the other hand, I am not sure a pure announcement could have such an impact.

Any opinions?

P.S. Greetings to xxxx123abcxxxx . I was not posting here, but I surely read this thread. Didn't post, just because the main point of our disagreement on the old thread seems to be resolved (hopefully), and here we see pure technical, quite interesting analysis, without questionable long-term predictions you were making in the old thread.

The mainstream media certainly has implied causation of Bitcoin's surge to Facebook's Libra cryptocurrency.

But if the marketplace truly is a discounting mechanism of future events, then the markets discount all possible scenarios, and move in the most probable direction; the Elliott Wave theory attempts to visually map the totality of all events.
 

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, Bitcoin has surged to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into the final week of JUN-2019. True to form, the 2019 bull market has unfolded in subdividing and extending parabolic curves.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the 2019 bull market may be modelled as follows:

Code:

+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR)  : subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR)  : a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY)  : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN)  : a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (06-JUN — 26-JUN?) : a parabolic rise.

The advancing Wave-3 and Wave-5 have subdivided and extended as parabolic curves, the nature of which have been challenging to study and predict. Mania-driven markets are just about impossible to forecast as the waves extend and subdivide fractally.

A speculative look into the structure of Wave-5 which started from the 06-JUN low to 26-JUN(?) high is detailed as follows, using COINBASE:



Any additional advance may be resisted by the following Fibonacci retracement zones, using BITSTAMP:

Code:

@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@16125: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@17780: Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.

The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves. Using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund as a proxy, it appears a couple of additional waves may still be outstanding to complete the waveset:



The 2019+ bull market is expected to unfold in five INTERMEDIATE degree legs: three advancing, interwoven with two declining. This waveset of five INTERMEDIATE degree legs is expected to complete an overall PRIMARY degree wave.

Should the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones fail to conclude the first leg of the bull market, and if price action marches to new all-time highs; then the advance may be considered as the entirety of the bull market inclusive of all legs:



Given the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index…

Code:

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

A more orderly paced scenario would consider the 2019 advance as the first leg of the bull market nearing completion. Which when complete, leads to the first notable pullback, followed by a resumption of the uptrend:



Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.

Should the first leg of the bull market be nearing completion, the following expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@7200: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@5435: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)
@4360: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement

The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 26-JUN high thus far is 140 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 70 days, it may be over by early SEP.

A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.

Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as wave-W, the current 2019 bull market as wave-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as wave-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets:

Code:

28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

[sedactoo+04]

Your complex scenario seems to be perfectly playing both price and time. I am not convinced for the bull yet.
I would love to see your thoughts and updates about it.
Thanks for your great work.

It's okay not to be convinced, but make sure to stay open to alternative theories. The biggest pitfall of EW analysis is getting married to a specific count, then continually reworking the count as it gets repeatedly invalidated. I struggled with this a lot years ago. Sometimes being "not convinced for the bull" really means "I can't see past my bear bias."

This is why it's good to always have at least two different counts you are tracking. Which count is ultimately correct may only be obvious in hindsight, hence the danger of becoming too attached to the wrong one.

My thoughts are definitely more in line with xxxx123abcxxxx's bull count. Of course, we won't be able to discard the complex bear correction scenario for quite some time yet.

thank you so much for the merit, I really do appreciate it!

[Blockchain0106]

Since the 06-FEB-2019 low, Bitcoin has surged to retrace a Fibonacci 61.8% of the entire 2018 bear market, thus far into the final week of JUN-2019. True to form, the 2019 bull market has unfolded in subdividing and extending parabolic curves.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, the 2019 bull market may be modelled as follows:

https://i.imgur.com/Tf6Y348.jpg

Code:

+ Wave-1 (06-FEB — 23-APR)  : subdivided into smaller degree impulsive waves.
- Wave-2 (23-APR — 25-APR)  : a simple Zig Zag correction.
+ Wave-3 (25-APR — 14-MAY)  : a parabolic rise.
- Wave-4 (14-MAY — 09-JUN)  : a complex Running Flat correction.
+ Wave-5 (06-JUN — 26-JUN?) : a parabolic rise.

The advancing Wave-3 and Wave-5 have subdivided and extended as parabolic curves, the nature of which have been challenging to study and predict. Mania-driven markets are just about impossible to forecast as the waves extend and subdivide fractally.

A speculative look into the structure of Wave-5 which started from the 06-JUN low to 26-JUN(?) high is detailed as follows, using COINBASE:

https://i.imgur.com/zKGFgGR.png

Any additional advance may be resisted by the following Fibonacci retracement zones, using BITSTAMP:

Code:

@13340: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@16125: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.
@17780: Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of the entire 2018 bear market.

The reduced price action of a non-continuous contract may offer clarity with parabolic waves. Using the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) fund as a proxy, it appears a couple of additional waves may still be outstanding to complete the waveset:

https://i.imgur.com/I4CZRgI.jpg

The 2019+ bull market is expected to unfold in five INTERMEDIATE degree legs: three advancing, interwoven with two declining. This waveset of five INTERMEDIATE degree legs is expected to complete an overall PRIMARY degree wave.

Should the aforementioned Fibonacci resistance zones fail to conclude the first leg of the bull market, and if price action marches to new all-time highs; then the advance may be considered as the entirety of the bull market inclusive of all legs:

https://i.imgur.com/0s0uRRd.jpg

Given the unanticipated surge in regards to both price and time; an advance to new all-time highs, without a notable pullback first, may suggest the advance is the fifth and final PRIMARY wave in its entirety.

A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to, or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 times, the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave, projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22912 and $35127, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index…

Code:

@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618

A more orderly paced scenario would consider the 2019 advance as the first leg of the bull market nearing completion. Which when complete, leads to the first notable pullback, followed by a resumption of the uptrend:

https://i.imgur.com/XRjl4M2.jpg

Adjusted and renewed targets can be expected in the event of subdividing and extending waves.

Should the first leg of the bull market be nearing completion, the following expected pullback zones can be defined via Fibonacci retracement levels, using BITSTAMP prices:

Code:

@8500: 50.0% Fibonacci retracement (min expected zone)
@7200: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (avg expected zone)
@5435: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement (max expected zone)
@4360: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement

https://i.imgur.com/mkfgF8O.jpg

The uptrend from the 06-FEB low to 26-JUN high thus far is 140 days. If downtrend elapses in half the time, say 70 days, it may be over by early SEP.

A decline to the 88.6% Fibonacci zone may provide the first signal to suggest a faltering bull market. A decline to the 06-FEB-2019 low would terminate the bull market.

Such a scenario would propose a cyclical (i.e. short-term) bull market, in an overall ongoing secular (i.e. long-term) bear market. The 2018 low would be labelled as wave-W, the current 2019 bull market as wave-X, followed by the resumption of the secular bear market labelled as wave-Y to break below the 2018 low. Complex composite wave structures are often behaviours of commodity and currency markets:

https://i.imgur.com/0AIPD3g.jpg

Code:

28-JUN-2019: Bitcoin CME Futures Expiry
28-JUN-2019: G20 Summit

Speculation is indicative of price/structure, not time.
 

Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN..?

initial expectation for the second leg bear market is towards $4,257 (BITFINEX) which marks a Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the entire Bitcoin market which begins the ‘despair’ state of affairs; where reality of the bubble bursting only just is grasped as the 'blow-off' phase gains momentum.

Based on historical manias, when a speculative asset bubble bursts, an approx 90%-95% collapse unravels in a period of 2 years:

—thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes
—en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets

Chronicles of historical manias suggest the cryptocurrency bear market is likely to conclude by late 2019 or early 2020, with Bitcoin priced between $500 to $1,000.

It is musing to project whether or not Bitcoin survives the crash.

Commodities and currencies, and assets deemed as a store of value, unfold in A-B-C Elliott Waves in both bull and bear markets. Whereas assets such as stocks based on earnings unfold in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

The wave characteristics of Bitcoin and the popular cryptocurrencies have unfolded in 1-2-3-4-5 impulsive Elliott Waves in bull markets, and corrective A-B-C Elliott Waves in bear markets.

Given the nature of wave characteristics, this suggests the behaviour cryptocurrencies cannot be considered as a currency nor a commodity; and so therefore in their current state, shall never be adopted as robust mediums of exchange for goods and services or as a storage medium of value.

Quite possibly, a second generation of viable cryptocurrencies may emerge in post 2020. Either way, the days of speculative parabolic price curves in the cryptocurrency markets is over, and any hopes of a return to the all-time highs is foolish hodlr's fodder.

Elliott Wave speculative models indicative of price and structure, not time; as follows:


" as per your previous Elite Wave theory you show me how bear market will continuance for 2 year cycle and you also mention "

Any of the aforementioned approx price levels based on Fibonacci projections are potential targets of where the 2018 bear market may conclude.

Should price retrace below the Fibonacci 78.6% of the entire Bitcoin market, i.e. below the psychological $4,000 level; it may suggest the bear market extends into 2019 with an expectation of a 90%-95% decline of the entire Bitcoin market to approx $1,000 by 2020. Such a scenario would be consistent with the collapse of other historical asset mania bubble bursts, which typically elapse 2 years on average: thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes

"and also you give a point where this wave can go further"

Bear Market Inflection Points

—A break below the 11-OCT-2018 low of $6,055 would be the first indication to suggest the bear market is still underway.
—A break below the 14-AUG-2018 low of $5,880 would confirm the ongoing bear market.
—A break below $4,000 may suggest an extended bear market leading to a 90%-95% collapse of the entire Bitcoin market by 2020.

Bull Market Inflection Points

—A break above the 15-OCT-2018 high of $6,756 would be the first indication to suggest a bull market may be commencing.
—A break above the 04-SEP-2018 high of $7,412 would likely confirm a bull market is underway.


as off no i really look like struggle for how to understand market behavior..? and i can't able to understand elite wave theory currently.
i am not able to apply formula on bitcoin chart, are we in ABC corrections Or WXY Wave ..? Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN

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Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN..?
" as per your previous Elite Wave theory you show me how bear market will continuance for 2 year cycle and you also mention "
as off no i really look like struggle for how to understand market behavior..? and i can't able to understand elite wave theory currently.
i am not able to apply formula on bitcoin chart, are we in ABC corrections Or WXY Wave ..? Please Help Me to under stand Elite Wave in BITCOIN

The last post of the 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) thread mentioned the following:

At this stage, the market would have to exceed $5890 BITFINEX to confirm a new bull market.
Exceeding $5178 BITFINEX would provide an early signal to consider a potential change of trend.

Since 05-APR-2019, the following two Elliott Wave scenarios are currently under consideration; either:

1. The current 2019 bull market is a wave-5 of Primary degree heading towards new all-time highs; or,
2. The current 2019 bull market is a wave-X of Primary degree as part of an all overall bearish W-X-Y structure.

The aforementioned scenarios have thus far been tracked in the following posts:

      05-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Bull Market…?
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50467456#msg50467456
 
      20-APR-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Easter Update
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg50681435#msg50681435

      12-MAY-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Sell In May And Go Away?
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51017295#msg51017295

      17-JUN-2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Solstice Update
      https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg51505513#msg51505513

The following book is a recommendation to understand Elliott Wave theory:

      Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior
      by A.J. Frost, Robert R. Prechter (ISBN: 9780471988496)
      https://ufile.io/a2zr6ofv (78MB) [expires 01-AUG-2019]

The following guesswork summarizes the preferred Elliott Wave model of this thread thus far (indicative of price/structure, not time):



Hope the above answers your questions.