2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Excellent prediction once again. Do you have a lower degree count you're charting, or are you waiting for the daily time frame to become clear? On the 4-hour, it looks like we've nearly completed iii of (c). Not sure though!

The best case scenario for the bulls would be a bounce from here into the weekend, and then a final drop to around $7000.
However, the technicals at this stage cannot yet rule out an extended decline to $5400.

Optimistic guesswork as follows...

[1714003072]

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[exstasie]

Excellent prediction once again. Do you have a lower degree count you're charting, or are you waiting for the daily time frame to become clear? On the 4-hour, it looks like we've nearly completed iii of (c). Not sure though!

The best case scenario for the bulls would be a bounce from here into the weekend, and then a final drop to around $7000.
However, the technicals at this stage cannot yet rule out an extended decline to $5400.

Optimistic guesswork as follows...

Thanks, that's very similar to my count. Still seems very plausible. Did you have an alternative count indicating a drop to $5,400 or is that just based on an extension to the 0.786?

On that note, have you ever looked at the 0.705 level? Obviously not used in EW but ICT and some others use it extensively. I've found that it's a level often respected by the market if the 0.618 isn't.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Thanks, that's very similar to my count. Still seems very plausible. Did you have an alternative count indicating a drop to $5,400 or is that just based on an extension to the 0.786?

No alternative count in the event of a decline to $5400 —likely to be defined as an ongoing subdividing and extended wave to the next support area of 0.786.
 

On that note, have you ever looked at the 0.705 level? Obviously not used in EW but ICT and some others use it extensively. I've found that it's a level often respected by the market if the 0.618 isn't.

No, not used the 0.705 level so can't comment —but thank you for sharing and shall take a look!

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

A move beyond $9000 may obviate the following extended decline scenarios to $5400...


 

[exstasie]

Thanks for the update. The market doesn't look bottomed out yet to me either but I still have doubts about reaching the 0.786. I have a nagging suspicion bulls will heavily buy the $6,000s on another stab down. Still looking at the 0.705 fib level and the apex of last year's triangle as potential stopping points.

[cabe72000]

Im so happy to find the 2019 of this post! I become interested in TA thanks to the original 2018 post, and been reading (those books you recommend me back then) and learning on the subject since then.

THANKS 123 for getting in this again, and for sharing your knowledge.

Now speaking on the subject, yesterday I was thinking in a 8100 support, but today we broke the 8000 barrier (looking at the 3 hours candle at bitfinex)

If I see the week candles, there are 4 touches at the support 7600 zone (correct me If I am wrong) 2 in June and 2 in september, which indicates a weak support resistance, which matches on the bear market and new lows (according to your projections down to 5400)

¿Is my analysis on track?

https://ibb.co/F0BZnG0

Happy to read your opinion.

Regards

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Im so happy to find the 2019 of this post! I become interested in TA thanks to the original 2018 post, and been reading (those books you recommend me back then) and learning on the subject since then.

THANKS 123 for getting in this again, and for sharing your knowledge.

Now speaking on the subject, yesterday I was thinking in a 8100 support, but today we broke the 8000 barrier (looking at the 3 hours candle at bitfinex)

If I see the week candles, there are 4 touches at the support 7600 zone (correct me If I am wrong) 2 in June and 2 in september, which indicates a weak support resistance, which matches on the bear market and new lows (according to your projections down to 5400)

¿Is my analysis on track?



Happy to read your opinion.

Regards

Thank you for sharing your analysis.

The average of the lows from JUN-2019 and SEP-2019 is around 7600, as you've correctly suggested.
GBTC has already broken the equivalent 7600 zone; and hence, BTC is on track to decline further.

Upcoming BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

[exstasie]

GBTC has already broken the equivalent 7600 zone; and hence, BTC is on track to decline further.

Interesting, I hadn't been tracking GBTC at all. This means the GBTC premium is declining. I wonder if that could suggest institutional fatigue or if it's just because other (cheaper?) institutional products (from Bakkt, VanEck) are hitting the market.

Upcoming BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

Is your preference for $5,400 at this point? The 0.618 seems fairly shallow from here given how drawn out this decline is.

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

GBTC has already broken the equivalent 7600 zone; and hence, BTC is on track to decline further.

Interesting, I hadn't been tracking GBTC at all. This means the GBTC premium is declining. I wonder if that could suggest institutional fatigue or if it's just because other (cheaper?) institutional products (from Bakkt, VanEck) are hitting the market.

Upcoming BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

Is your preference for $5,400 at this point? The 0.618 seems fairly shallow from here given how drawn out this decline is.

No preference at the moment, either possibility of a decline to 61.8% or 78.6% are equally viable at this point; however, GTBC is already at the 61.8% retracement level.

It may be the case GBTC declines to the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels first, and awaits there over a weekend, whilst BTC synchronises...?

[MarquiseMuseum]

Be careful here to all new investors.

Especially if you are engulfed in x100 longs.

This market is rigged, please search elsewhere for profit in this space, it is out there but not in top 5 right now or probably ever.

Top 5 is zombie graveyard but status quo has not ruptured yet, only when there is a flip will it be evident, and by then it is too late to recover permanent losses.

Flip event will transfer hundred of billions to solid projects in top 100, and trillions of migrated merchant business with branded cryptos using index platforms that can handle the txs requirements while remaining decentralized.

Most responsible thing for crypto elite to do at this stage is shelf OG BTC but everyone is neck deep from early gains.

Research the state of this soon to be fractured market, do not invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

There is no guarantee of reversal from descent into $5000, it could very well go down to low thousands and stagnate there during and after flip. Understand that market cap of top 5 is $200 billion dollars or 90% of total, everything of this will soon be redistributed to next gen projects that contribute to a better world.

A future BTC and top 5 dominance of single digit is possible. The future will be paid for by top 5 and merchant onramping, no one is stupid to enter top 5 with all this information available at this stage of maturity.

Finally let us bury these false ideas once and for all:

1. BTC is not scarce, there are tens of thousands of alts with better tech that can perform exactly like BTC or better, and most of these already went to -99.99% due to lack of support. Saying BTC is scarce is like saying the first copy of windows 95, kazaa 1.0, napster, DC++ or netscape or 56k modem installation cds are scarce and ultra valuable.

2. BTC does not and will not ever compete with decentralized tech that is scalable

3. Real decentralization is only possible through a myriad of merchant and personal cryptos, not monoliths.

4. Super powers control BTC since late 2017, they control CMC, all top exchanges, all leverage and lending firms. An investment in BTC or top 5 is a solid support of perpetual status quo stagnation which humanity already saw 10 years of, a wasted decade technologically.

5. BTC operates on greed, delusion, degenerate gambling, despotism. You get what you pay for, now go x100 long and sellout the future.

6. BTC was established on criminal syndication like the silk road, the only thing that happened is that even bigger criminals now control this market. 2017 ICOs were 99% scams, it is riddled with criminals and most recently white collars and corrupt international agencies.

7. Mining is 100% centrally controlled and a disaster of resource optimization allocation. This is why I bought eth in early 2016, a crypto that would make good use of energy allocation, unfortunately, did not scale.

8. Stop watching youtube pushers of top 5. Whether bearish or bullish, I am here to explain that the concept in itself is fast becoming irrelevant as new projects begin maturing. This is projects that you have never even heard of and will not discover until they are already x100, it is the reality of life as a mainstream investor, always late to wealth. I have been living, sleeping, eating crypto for 10 hours most days for 3 consecutive years with a period of interruption 6 months in 2017 while you were doing normal things like family, work, holiday, weddings, dinners, parties, etc. I am by no means the smartest guy on this board but simply brute forced a level of knowledge that will take other average joes the same amount of time investment to gain (many years).

9. Finally a contrarian view: yes BTC may go to $300 000 but it is a complete dystopian reality if that happens. Atleast until solid alternatives emerge such as AGI backed chains. For analysis of future scenarios there is alot in my recent history here on bitcointalk. It is building on conceptual models of society based on power dynamics throughout history and world mythology combined with silicon valley futurism. This is then extrapolated on blockchain technology and integrated with economic valuations as catalyst of progress because blockchain is like stocks but much more advanced. The state of top 5 has no room in that analytic space, not even close. We need those $200 bn for other things now and you must pay for it by x100 leverage all the way back to $400.

[cabe72000]

Be careful here to all new investors.

Especially if you are engulfed in x100 longs.

This market is rigged, please search elsewhere for profit in this space, it is out there but not in top 5 right now or probably ever.

Top 5 is zombie graveyard but status quo has not ruptured yet, only when there is a flip will it be evident, and by then it is too late to recover permanent losses.

Flip event will transfer hundred of billions to solid projects in top 100, and trillions of migrated merchant business with branded cryptos using index platforms that can handle the txs requirements while remaining decentralized.

Most responsible thing for crypto elite to do at this stage is shelf OG BTC but everyone is neck deep from early gains.

Research the state of this soon to be fractured market, do not invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

There is no guarantee of reversal from descent into $5000, it could very well go down to low thousands and stagnate there during and after flip. Understand that market cap of top 5 is $200 billion dollars or 90% of total, everything of this will soon be redistributed to next gen projects that contribute to a better world.

A future BTC and top 5 dominance of single digit is possible. The future will be paid for by top 5 and merchant onramping, no one is stupid to enter top 5 with all this information available at this stage of maturity.

Finally let us bury these false ideas once and for all:

1. BTC is not scarce, there are tens of thousands of alts with better tech that can perform exactly like BTC or better, and most of these already went to -99.99% due to lack of support. Saying BTC is scarce is like saying the first copy of windows 95, kazaa 1.0, napster, DC++ or netscape or 56k modem installation cds are scarce and ultra valuable.

2. BTC does not and will not ever compete with decentralized tech that is scalable

3. Real decentralization is only possible through a myriad of merchant and personal cryptos, not monoliths.

4. Super powers control BTC since late 2017, they control CMC, all top exchanges, all leverage and lending firms. An investment in BTC or top 5 is a solid support of perpetual status quo stagnation which humanity already saw 10 years of, a wasted decade technologically.

5. BTC operates on greed, delusion, degenerate gambling, despotism. You get what you pay for, now go x100 long and sellout the future.

6. BTC was established on criminal syndication like the silk road, the only thing that happened is that even bigger criminals now control this market. 2017 ICOs were 99% scams, it is riddled with criminals and most recently white collars and corrupt international agencies.

7. Mining is 100% centrally controlled and a disaster of resource optimization allocation. This is why I bought eth in early 2016, a crypto that would make good use of energy allocation, unfortunately, did not scale.

8. Stop watching youtube pushers of top 5. Whether bearish or bullish, I am here to explain that the concept in itself is fast becoming irrelevant as new projects begin maturing. This is projects that you have never even heard of and will not discover until they are already x100, it is the reality of life as a mainstream investor, always late to wealth. I have been living, sleeping, eating crypto for 10 hours most days for 3 consecutive years with a period of interruption 6 months in 2017 while you were doing normal things like family, work, holiday, weddings, dinners, parties, etc. I am by no means the smartest guy on this board but simply brute forced a level of knowledge that will take other average joes the same amount of time investment to gain (many years).

9. Finally a contrarian view: yes BTC may go to $300 000 but it is a complete dystopian reality if that happens. Atleast until solid alternatives emerge such as AGI backed chains. For analysis of future scenarios there is alot in my recent history here on bitcointalk. It is building on conceptual models of society based on power dynamics throughout history and world mythology combined with silicon valley futurism. This is then extrapolated on blockchain technology and integrated with economic valuations as catalyst of progress because blockchain is like stocks but much more advanced. The state of top 5 has no room in that analytic space, not even close. We need those $200 bn for other things now and you must pay for it by x100 leverage all the way back to $400.

No technical analysis, we could call this Fundamental analysis, if you wanna say something.

This is offtopic of the original idea of the post.

Also, Setting yourself as "the smartest guy in crypto" throws away your whole story, humble (as shown by 123) is the best asset to have.

To finish, you "museum" link sends you to a "crypto coin" so. You are, shouting against BTC (With no technical analysis) but promote in your signature a new blockchain coin?

¿Thanks for the opinion?

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

A rise beyond the OCT-2019 high of ~$8800 may obviate the following extended decline scenarios...

BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

[exstasie]

A rise beyond the OCT-2019 high of ~$8800 may obviate the following extended decline scenarios...

BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

Is it possible the last leg down to $7,800 (ending October 18th) was a truncated/failed wave? I'm beginning to wonder if we've already seen the bottom. Something like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52813750#msg52813750

Normally I would favor the beige scenario but this price action is very trolly. Not sure.....

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Is it possible the last leg down to $7,800 (ending October 18th) was a truncated/failed wave? I'm beginning to wonder if we've already seen the bottom. Something like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52813750#msg52813750
Normally I would favor the beige scenario but this price action is very trolly. Not sure.....

Yes, its possible with the following requirements...

1. An impulsive 5 wave rise from the 18-OCT-2019 low (so far 3 waves).
2. A rise beyond the 11-OCT-2019 high of $8800 approx.

[cabe72000]

Is it possible the last leg down to $7,800 (ending October 18th) was a truncated/failed wave? I'm beginning to wonder if we've already seen the bottom. Something like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52813750#msg52813750
Normally I would favor the beige scenario but this price action is very trolly. Not sure.....

Yes, its possible with the following requirements...

1. An impulsive 5 wave rise from the 18-OCT-2019 low (so far 3 waves).
2. A rise beyond the 11-OCT-2019 high of $8800 approx.

Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.

https://ibb.co/KscqfdX


Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?


PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

[figmentofmyass]

PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

newbies can't post images. you can bypass the restriction by purchasing a copper membership for 0.00302224 BTC:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2385104.msg24371150#msg24371150
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=credit;promote

the image was also blocked by the image proxy, not sure why. it shows up if i post it on imgur:

[xxxx123abcxxxx]

Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.

https://ibb.co/KscqfdX

Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?

PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

Expecting the decline to conclude at either of the following BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

At which point, the following criteria ought to signal a potential end to the decline:

1. A +15% bounce.
2. Positive divergence on a momentum indicator such as the RSI, on daily and 4-hr timeframes.
3. A rising impulsive wave structure consisting of 5 waves.
 

[cabe72000]

Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.

https://ibb.co/KscqfdX

Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?

PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

Expecting the decline to conclude at either of the following BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:

@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

At which point, the following criteria ought to signal a potential end to the decline:

1. A +15% bounce.
2. Positive divergence on a momentum indicator such as the RSI, on daily and 4-hr timeframes.
3. A rising impulsive wave structure consisting of 5 waves.
 

As soon as I saw the jump i thought about this post.

We can say that the decline of the market is really finished as the support zone got up to 8500 (now at 8300) ¿correct?  Or is ir jusr anoghe part of the wave?

If correct,  we should se a movement around a range for some days and then again a possibly up or down according to the last movement, and if the decline is terminated in the up direction.

I love this post is pure gold on knowledge!

[figmentofmyass]

At which point, the following criteria ought to signal a potential end to the decline:

1. A +15% bounce.
2. Positive divergence on a momentum indicator such as the RSI, on daily and 4-hr timeframes.
3. A rising impulsive wave structure consisting of 5 waves.

As soon as I saw the jump i thought about this post.

We can say that the decline of the market is really finished as the support zone got up to 8500 (now at 8300) ¿correct?  Or is ir jusr anoghe part of the wave?

looks like we got our 15% bounce. it would have been nice to run below the .618 and form some nice bullish divergences, but that would have been too easy!

xxxx123abcxxxx, you think the bottom is in!? i'd love to see an updated count.

[Gustavo_Brucestavo]

Hey ABC, thanks for all the great pointers.... the 15% has happened it seems.  Would love to hear an update on your thoughts for where we go from here! Cheers.