2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave): Thanksgiving Updatehttps://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/e16ezw/2019_cryptocurrency_elliott_wave_thanksgiving/From an Elliott Wave perspective, two scenarios are under consideration at this inflection point: a continuing
Bull Scenario or a
Bear Scenario.
In either scenario, the Elliott Wave model proposes a five wave structure, consisting of: three advancing bull market waves, interwoven with two declining bear market waves. Overlaying this model onto Bitcoin suggests:
Wave-1: the first bull market wave 2010-2013 (1219 days), followed by;
Wave-2: the first bear market wave 2013-2015 (426 days), followed by;
Wave-3: the second bull market wave 2015-2018 (1065 days), followed by;
Wave-4: the second bear market wave 2018-2019 (363 days), followed by;
Wave-5: the third and final bull market wave 2019-?
The five aforementioned have been considered as PRIMARY degree waves —such waves elapse the course of a few months to a couple of years. Each PRIMARY degree wave is constituted of five INTERMEDIATE degree waves; and in turn, so forth into smaller degree fractals.
The
Bull Scenario suggests Wave-5 is still underway, with subdividing and extending waves headed for new all-time highs.
The
Bear Scenario suggests Wave-5 completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high as a truncated fifth wave failure, and a bear market is underway.
Bull ScenarioThe bullish scenario suggests a continuing bull market is underway. PRIMARY[5] wave started from the 06-FEB-2019 low, and has completed its first parabolic uptrend labelled as INTERMEDIATE(1) wave at the 26-JUN-2019 high.
INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback started at the 26-JUN-2019 high, and retraced an almost Fibonacci 61.8% thus far of the 2019 bull market, into the 23-OCT-2019 low.
This 4-month decline had initially appeared to have completed an INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback when the market suddenly spiked and surged over 40% within a day —attributed to news of Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly stating China should “seize the opportunity” offered by blockchain. The surge was the third largest 24-hour price gain in Bitcoin's history.
However, since the spike high on 26-OCT-2019, the market has steadily sold-off and now returned back to the 23-OCT-2019 low; and hence, erasing the entire late OCT surge. The surge is now being considered as a B-wave as part of an ongoing INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback. In hindsight, it ought to have been obvious this Thanksgiving Turkey isn’t cooked yet:
“B waves are phonies. They are sucker plays, bull traps, speculators' paradise, orgies of odd-lotter mentality or expressions of dumb institutional complacency (or both). They often involve a focus on a narrow list of stocks, are often ‘unconfirmed’ by other averages, are rarely technically strong, and are virtually always doomed to complete retracement by wave C. If the analyst can easily say to himself, ‘There is something wrong with this market,’ chances are it's a B wave.” —Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behavior; A.J. Frost, Robert Prechter.
From the B-wave high set on 26-OCT-2019, C-wave of INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has been underway and is expected to conclude at the following Fibonacci support zones, using BITSTAMP:
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [AVG]
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [MAX]
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019. [WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?]
In addition to the aforementioned support zones, the following additional midway Fibonacci zones can be sought as support for this current INTERMEDIATE(2) decline, using BITSTAMP:
@7055: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.500
@6280: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.618
@5170: Wave-C = Wave-A * 0.786
Summary of support zones, using BITSTAMP:
7230, 7055, 6280, 5425, 5170, 4350
At time of writing, price is currently meandering between the first two aforementioned support levels.
Once INTERMEDIATE(2) wave pullback has completed, a rising INTERMEDIATE(3) is expected to commence to resume the bull market. Such a wave is expected to unfold parabolically in nature, and at a minimum, meet or exceed the PRIMARY[3] high set on 17-DEC-2017. In both price and time, this wave is expected to be the longest of the PRIMARY[5] bull market.
Where the PRIMARY[5] bull market ends is open to interpretation and speculation.
From an Elliott Wave perspective: A common wave relationship guides the price of the fifth wave to be equal to; or extend a Fibonacci 1.618 or 2.618 times; the length from the low of the first wave through to the high of third wave; projected from the low of the fourth wave. This provides a conservative target of the current bull market to conclude between $22,912 or $35,127 or $54,892, calculated using the BraveNewCoin (BLX) index:
@22912: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1
@35127: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 1.618
@54892: PRIMARY[5] = (PRIMARY[1] + PRIMARY[3]) * 2.618
As and when the waves develop and progress, and in the event of subdividing and extending waves, revised price targets shall be calculated with renewed projections.
Bear Scenario The bear market scenario suggests the 2019 bull market was a short-lived affair, and PRIMARY[5] terminated as a failed-fifth truncated wave.
PRIMARY[5] started from the 15-DEC-2018 low and completed at the 26-JUN-2019 high. A Fibonacci 88.6% retracement of this uptrend is at 4350 BITSTAMP —a decline to this point ought to signal the goose is cooked and market has favoured to deflate.
In this scenario, five completed PRIMARY degree waves have completed a CYCLE I wave structure. And now, a CYCLE II wave bear market pullback is underway and headed to break below the 2018 low.
The wider cryptocurrency market in terms of the Altcoins currently appear to support the outlook of a bear market. So far in 2019, the price structure of majority Altcoins has seemingly unfolded in corrective A-B-C advancing waves, instead of impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 waves. This suggests the majority of Altcoins may be set to break their respective 2018 lows unless an intervention can be coordinated…
Analysis is purely speculative, and projections are indicative of price & structure, not time. Happy Thanksgiving!
