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Author Topic: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave)  (Read 7064 times)
exstasie
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February 08, 2020, 06:11:03 AM
 #181

Thanks for the update. I'm also counting this as an irregular Wave 2 correction, although there are some differences in our counts:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.msg53786018#msg53786018

Either way, all signs point to a bullish 2020. Smiley

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February 08, 2020, 11:28:28 AM
 #182

it looks like a correction will occur, thanks to the speculation you gave, may I ask about the condition of altcoin? Will the altseason come, sir? thanks

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February 09, 2020, 03:25:43 AM
Last edit: February 09, 2020, 03:59:31 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #183

From the 18-DEC-2019 low to the 06-FEB-2020 high, the Bitcoin markets have gained around 50% in 50 days.

—GBTC (1st chart): has risen in five completed impulsive waves, thus completing a potential waveset.

—BTC (2nd chart): has risen in nine waves. The first five completed as impulsive; whilst the remainder of the four wave rise currently appears corrective, and may be thus far, considered as an irregular B-wave rise. The usual allowable extent of an irregular B-wave rise is a Fibbonacci 1.618 times the length of the A-wave. At around $9800, BTC has reached the maximum extent of an irregular B-wave rise.

Barring a wave subdivision and extension, there is now a possibility of a pullback at this juncture; using COINBASE pricing:

Code:
@8157: 50.0% Fibbonacci retracement from 18-DEC-2019 to 06-FEB-2020 [MIN EXPECTED]
@7750: 61.8% Fibbonacci retracement from 18-DEC-2019 to 06-FEB-2020 [AVG EXPECTED]
@7170: 78.6% Fibbonacci retracement from 18-DEC-2019 to 06-FEB-2020 [MAX EXPECTED]
@6824: 88.6% Fibbonacci retracement from 18-DEC-2019 to 06-FEB-2020 [WARNING]

https://i.imgur.com/DeReCoi.png

https://i.imgur.com/UyB5Cxs.png

Analysis and projections are speculative.

BTC price has now exceeded the maximum allowable extent of an irregular B-wave as stated aforementioned.
A decline below the low of 04-FEB-2020 is required in order to revert and reconsider the aforementioned irregular B-wave scenario.
Subsequently at this stage, the following initial assumptive outlook may be considered...

exstasie
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February 09, 2020, 07:35:15 AM
 #184

BTC price has now exceeded the maximum allowable extent of an irregular B-wave as stated aforementioned.
A decline below the low of 04-FEB-2020 is required in order to revert and reconsider the aforementioned irregular B-wave scenario.
Subsequently at this stage, the following initial assumptive outlook may be considered...



An incredibly bullish nested count! Smiley

I agree, it's a good possibility now that the proportions no longer suggest an irregular/expanding correction.

Any targets for Minor Wave 3, and/or [iii] of 3?

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February 09, 2020, 10:41:08 AM
 #185

it looks like a correction will occur, thanks to the speculation you gave, may I ask about the condition of altcoin? Will the altseason come, sir? thanks
The rising tide of Bitcoin carries all Altcoins. However, the majority of Altcoins have larger sailing distances to reach the shore of all-time highs...

—BTC is 'only' required to gain 100% from here to reach its all-time high.
—LTC is required to gain 370% from here to reach its all-time high.
—ETH is required to gain 520% from here to reach its all-time high.

Technically, BTC is only required to reach, and/or marginally exceed, its all-time high to qualify five rising PRIMARY degree Elliott Waves since inception. At which point, the BTC bull market may complete, with the Altcoins lagging behind.
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February 09, 2020, 10:58:33 AM
 #186

A potential Leading Diagonal can be eliminated if price exceeds the 26-OCT-2019 high...

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February 09, 2020, 11:15:08 AM
 #187

An incredibly bullish nested count! Smiley

I agree, it's a good possibility now that the proportions no longer suggest an irregular/expanding correction.

Any targets for Minor Wave 3, and/or [iii] of 3?

Typically, the usual minimum expected length of a wave-3, at any degree, is a Fibonacci 1.618 times the length of wave-1. So, using BITSTAMP pricing...

Code:
@23831: INTERMEDIATE (3) = INTERMEDIATE (1) * 1.618
@12683: MINOR 3 = MINOR 1 * 1.618
@11271: MINUTE [iii] = MINUTE [i] * 1.618

The following speculation may illustrate the minimum expected length of INTERMEDIATE(3), using the parabolic nature of INTERMEDIATE(1) as a projection...


 
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February 10, 2020, 07:04:13 AM
Last edit: February 11, 2020, 03:06:43 AM by xxxx123abcxxxx
Merited by fabiorem (1)
 #188

Two potential scenarios to consider at this juncture...

Leading Diagonal (1st chart)
A completed Leading Diagonal rising from the 18-DEC-2019 low to 10-FEB-2020 high...
     Confirmed if price declines below the 04-FEB-2020 low.
     Eliminated if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.

Impulse (2nd chart)
An ongoing Impulse rising from the 18-DEC-2019 low...
     Confirmed if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.
     Eliminated if price declines below the 04-FEB-2019 low.


 

  
 
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February 10, 2020, 03:59:49 PM
 #189

Its gonna go vertical bro, read my recent thread for fundamental reason.

Prime XBT, give me back my longs.

Disfatti di Varo, Battle of the forest.

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February 10, 2020, 09:04:14 PM
 #190



Impulse (2nd chart)
An ongoing Impulse rising from the 18-DEC-2019 low...
     Confirmed if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 low.
     Eliminated if price declines below the 04-FEB-2019 high.

Did you mean:
     Confirmed if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.
     Eliminated if price declines below the 04-FEB-2020 high.
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February 11, 2020, 03:08:34 AM
 #191

Did you mean:
     Confirmed if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.
     Eliminated if price declines below the 04-FEB-2020 high.
Error has been corrected, thank you.
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February 13, 2020, 01:30:20 PM
 #192

Two potential scenarios to consider at this juncture...

Leading Diagonal (1st chart)
A completed Leading Diagonal rising from the 18-DEC-2019 low to 10-FEB-2020 high...
     Confirmed if price declines below the 04-FEB-2020 low.
     Eliminated if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.

Impulse (2nd chart)
An ongoing Impulse rising from the 18-DEC-2019 low...
     Confirmed if price advances beyond the 26-OCT-2019 high.
     Eliminated if price declines below the 04-FEB-2019 low.

https://i.imgur.com/R32NwEZ.png
 
https://i.imgur.com/NPDIDZ3.png

Leading Diagonal scenario eliminated.

GBTC (1st chart): two Impulsive scenarios, Standard vs Extended.
BTC (2nd chart): one Impulsive scenario, Standard.




 
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February 18, 2020, 08:54:01 AM
Merited by figmentofmyass (1)
 #193

Hello xxxx123abcxxxx,

I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !

Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.

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February 18, 2020, 09:43:49 PM
Last edit: February 18, 2020, 10:05:13 PM by xxxx123abcxxxx
 #194

Hello xxxx123abcxxxx,

I've recently become interested in Elliot analysis, I'm a beginner in this field, I discovered you through the comments you left on the analysis of the late Tony Caldaro's SP500.
So it is through you that I discovered this site dedicated to cryptomoney and that I am following your very relevant analyses which are very useful to me in my learning of the Elliott Wave.
Given my low level of English I use Deepl translator, so there may be some slight problems !

Have a nice day and thank you for your analyses.

Thank you for your message.
The analysis is purely speculation —sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't!

Here are two ebooks you may find useful in learning the Elliott Wave principle...

    Elliott Wave Principle: Key To Market Behavior Hardcover
    by A.J. Frost, Robert R. Prechter

    https://gofile.io/?c=kNqpcI (78MB)

    Bloomberg Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading
    by Wayne Gorman, Jeffrey Kennedy

    https://gofile.io/?c=kIBATD (34MB)

 
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February 18, 2020, 10:01:08 PM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #195

exstasie
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February 19, 2020, 08:10:19 AM
 #196



Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.

This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.

Thanks for the chart.

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February 19, 2020, 02:32:35 PM
 #197

Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.

This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.

Thanks for the chart.

Yes, its an interesting setup for the internal proportions of MINUTE [iii] wave.

MINUTE [i ] is longer than MINUTE [iii] wave. And so since MINUTE [iii] cannot be the shortest wave of the set, the final MINUTE [v] wave (which ought to be currently underway) is limited to a maximum upside of 11756 (BITSTAMP).

So if price exceeds 11756 (BITSTAMP), then its likely MINUTE [iii] is extending and subdividing.
 

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February 24, 2020, 12:31:34 AM
 #198

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February 24, 2020, 11:06:46 AM
 #199



Interesting. I'm not loving the internal proportions of [iii] but it's certainly possible. Frankly, all the counts I'm looking at are questionable for some reason or other.

This sort of powerful, sub-dividing wave (at the minor degree) is inherently difficult to count until it's very clearly over.

Thanks for the chart.

We can't really limit the factors that affects the overall standing or state of Bitcoin because, in general, the possible causes of the rise and fall of a crypto currency is unlimited whether it is an internal factors or external such as the demand for the coin or basically the law of supply and demand and many more. We could only make our best guess from the number of data charts in the movement in its price.

Also, for me, as the halving event is coming closer day by day the possible events that will happen narrows tightly unto the demand for Bitcoin to be massive and so is its price.

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February 24, 2020, 01:44:12 PM
 #200

—BTC (1st chart): scenario considered if price advances above 19-FEB-2020 high.

—GBTC (2nd/3rd chart): scenario considered if price declines below 19-FEB-2020 low.







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