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Author Topic: The pitiful state of the Chinese economy could weigh on Bitcoin  (Read 221 times)
CryptoReggae
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April 13, 2019, 06:03:36 PM
Last edit: April 14, 2019, 08:40:06 PM by CryptoReggae
 #1

At first glance it might seem paradoxical that an economy of a country that, although important as China, could heavily affect Bitcoin, yet it is enough to connect the pieces of a puzzle to understand that what awaits us in a few weeks time could be dramatic for bitcoin value.

A few days ago I read an article reuters LINK https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-cryptocurrency/china-wants-to-ban-bitcoin-mining-idUSKCN1RL0C4
where, like so many other times in the past, there is talk of a possible mining BAN in China, a possible ban justified according to Reuters by a "high consumption of Energy" and a "supervision with the same approach they adopted with the Internet".

In most readers this news appeared to be "the usual fake news" or in any case a magnification of the news aimed at creating alarmism, but no alarm was triggered. The value of Bitcoin has been almost unchanged.

Because this time there is really to be alarmed

One of China's leading economists, Xiang Songzuo, one of China's leading economics and market experts, "China's speculative bubble is about to explode".
This professor did not use half terms to describe the Chinese economy, explaining in detail all the limitations and superficialities of a government that has managed in an ignorant and obtuse manner the economic problems present today in China.

"Obviously" the Chinese government does not tolerate this type of utterance, and it immediately proceeded to remove any reference on the internet (in China) that this professor declared. Fortunately, someone has saved and republished this video, available today here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6offNjTo4c

I could read a literary translation of every single word of this video thanks to a translation of an Italian website http://www.asianews.it/notizie-it/Xiang-Songzuo:-Lo-stato-pietoso-dell%E2%80%99economia-Chinese-46023.html

The blockchain is a problem
In his long course, Xiang Songzuo indicates among the many focal points of the Chinese economic problems to be solved, and at a certain point BLOCKCHAIN ​​is mentioned in a generic way. Why is not explained, but just think to understand why the blockchain is a problem in China.

What many people do not know is that China is a closed economy, where every single penny cannot leave the country except through a "government authorization". The government authorizes investments abroad only if "there is a return for the government", that is, everything that comes out of the door must return from the window (with interest). Furthermore, the government is doing everything to remove the Private PROPERTY. What is obvious for us (being able to own a house) in China may not be.

And now you can try to imagine an entrepreneur, who accumulates money with difficulty, and who sees years of work and sweat in danger, cannot buy private property, cannot export capital.

Here is the blockchain (clearly Bitcoin is the host) becomes a hole that can allow the export of capital from a closed country like China.


How to export capital from China?
The fastest way would be to buy Bitcoins with Chinese currency and then sell them in another currency. But this is practically impossible to achieve, if not leaving indelible traces. What other solution?

Simple: MINING !!!
I produce Bitcoin through mining. I produce BTC with an energy and hardware cost, and I sell BTC for another currency.
What few understand is that in reality mining in China is a means of "recycling", not intended as the result of dirty work, but a possibility of converting Chinese currency into another fiat currency.

Almost all of the mining in China, unlike what is commonly widespread, is not done because "energy is cheap"; indeed, energy costs are constantly increasing since China is an energy-intensive country.

Almost all of the minin in China is made IN LOSS, yes, at a loss only and exclusively to let currency out of the country. Even a 10/15% loss can be tolerated if you want to export capital from a country that does not allow it.


And here is the BAN of mining

At this point, by May 8, we will have answers about what the Chinese government intends to do to revive the Chinese economy, but there is no doubt that the blockchain will fall among the very first interventions that the government will carry out.

And there will be no way to covertly undermine it, because the energy consumption of the farm is obvious and it will be easy to identify who will commit criminal offenses, and China is a severe country where prisons are harsh.

Bitcoin will most likely see a dramatic drop in the Hash, and a sharp decline in difficulty of as much as 30/40% in a few days, and the consequence will most likely be a fall in prices with similar magnitude.

There will be no security dangers, since the Bitcoin network is largely secure even with a halved hash, but a drop in its value will be what we most probably expect from here in the coming weeks, coinciding with the official status of a possible Ban Chinese.

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April 14, 2019, 05:28:23 AM
 #2

Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.

 
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April 14, 2019, 07:57:11 AM
 #3

Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.

Exactly like that. BTC mining has been a way to "export currency" to date, and this is now a big problem for the Chinese government to resolve. As if they have reached the point of no longer tolerating what until today was tacitly allowed.
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April 14, 2019, 01:49:56 PM
 #4

With your topic caption, are you saying the Chinese economy is crumbling?

Meanwhile, whether Chinese or not, bitcoin has demonstrated to be independent of an individual economy. I remember the Chinese went against bitcoin early last two years yet nothing has changed.

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April 14, 2019, 03:40:20 PM
 #5

I don't think that the Chinese economy is crumbling, maybe they want to do something, and we don't know what it is. So we need to wait until May 8 to know the update of the news. But I still curious about did China really want to ban mining.
Obviously, the word "there is a return for the government" means something and it clearly does that the government want something from the miner which they cannot get. For example, the government cannot get tax from the mining itself.

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April 14, 2019, 05:05:46 PM
 #6

With your topic caption, are you saying the Chinese economy is crumbling?

Meanwhile, whether Chinese or not, bitcoin has demonstrated to be independent of an individual economy. I remember the Chinese went against bitcoin early last two years yet nothing has changed.

this is precisely one of the reasons why this news has no effect. It is true that China has never been favorable to Bitcoin, but today we are talking about a Mining BAN, and this is a very important news.

People have become so addicted to hearing BAN in China that they no longer react to similar news, but the reality is that this time can be very different from the past.


I don't think that the Chinese economy is crumbling, maybe they want to do something, and we don't know what it is. So we need to wait until May 8 to know the update of the news. But I still curious about did China really want to ban mining.
Obviously, the word "there is a return for the government" means something and it clearly does that the government want something from the miner which they cannot get. For example, the government cannot get tax from the mining itself.

On balance, the relationship between what they earn (from the entire mining sector) to what they lose is clearly unfavorable to the Chinese government.
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April 14, 2019, 06:33:33 PM
 #7

I don't believe this anymore, if they are going to ban their mining industry of Bitcoin due to power consumptions then they should have done that already. It doesn't matter if they were there or not Bitcoin will still live no matter what. There are still more countries that are doing mining Bitcoin will still live on that unless all of these countries will BAN mining for the cryptocurrency.



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April 14, 2019, 07:08:30 PM
 #8



For people who dont know about China's involvement on Bitcoin mining.


source: https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/pools/

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April 14, 2019, 08:00:43 PM
 #9

I think that the Chinese economy is not much the effect that exerts on the Bitcoin market, we must not forget that Bitcoin is operated all over the world, and there are many Strong Hands that are not from China but from other countries, the Market Makers they are people who do not care in what state the economy of a country is, they only speculate with the market, in my view of the market, speculators do not even care about technology, they only follow the market in which direction it is headed for They take profit and establish their strategies.

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April 14, 2019, 08:25:49 PM
 #10

I don't believe this anymore, if they are going to ban their mining industry of Bitcoin due to power consumptions then they should have done that already.

Not only that, but all this speculation is based on a bill proposal that isn't even accepted yet, nor do we not know if it will. As always, news outlets are contributing to this nonsense by releasing articles that are purely based on empty speculation, and people here and on other social media platforms happily jump on it to further exaggerate this whole situation.

In the end, these measures will not have any sort of effect on the growing OTC market in China, and I'm quite certain that the government(s) there understand that. That's why I personally doubt the bill will be accepted, but it's always better to be sure and wait for what is going to happen in the forthcoming months.

Bitmain has quite a powerful lobby in China, so we'll see what happens.

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April 14, 2019, 08:30:39 PM
 #11

I don't believe this anymore, if they are going to ban their mining industry of Bitcoin due to power consumptions then they should have done that already. It doesn't matter if they were there or not Bitcoin will still live no matter what. There are still more countries that are doing mining Bitcoin will still live on that unless all of these countries will BAN mining for the cryptocurrency.

I don't think it's a problem of energy consumption, so many companies consume energy; I think the real problem is "capital flight".
If you are Chinese and want to diversify your investments, the government simply will not allow it.
A Chinese cannot export capital until after a government authorization, which of course comes only if there are favorable economic reasons for his country.

So Bitcoin is a simple way to sidestep capital controls, and mining is the best tool to "recycle" one's investments, that's why even the loss-making mining is still useful to the Chinese.

This is the real problem, not energy consumption (or at least not the main problem),

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April 14, 2019, 11:52:00 PM
 #12

I don't see why the bad Chinese economy should impact on Bitcoin, bearing in mind that China isn't even Bitcoin friendly. We remeber that infamous Bitcoin ban in 2017.

BTW OP, it will be very difficult for you to earn any merit if you keep posting this way with unnecessary lengthy comments. Brevity is the soul of speech.

I don't think that BTC is ban by the Chinese in 2017, what they put a stop to is those ICO and not bitcoin per se.

Anyways, the only question is the timing though. Why did Chinese suddenly take in consideration banning bitcoin mining when the price is suddenly spiking in recent weeks? Hmm. Do they really want to bring the price of bitcoin down again?

For me it's pretty obvious that they don't want capital flight, they wanted all the money earn to their economy, they want to stay in inside China.

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April 15, 2019, 07:21:51 AM
 #13

I don't think that the Chinese economy is crumbling, maybe they want to do something, and we don't know what it is. So we need to wait until May 8 to know the update of the news. But I still curious about did China really want to ban mining.
Obviously, the word "there is a return for the government" means something and it clearly does that the government want something from the miner which they cannot get. For example, the government cannot get tax from the mining itself.

On balance, the relationship between what they earn (from the entire mining sector) to what they lose is clearly unfavorable to the Chinese government.
That will not unfavorable to the Chinese government but not for people who were still mining because although the bitcoin price is not too high right now, they still collecting more and more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price will increase higher. And the Chinese government doesn't realize that because they don't want to see their people become wealthy people in their country. But I am not sure about that, and maybe I am wrong about this.

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April 16, 2019, 10:03:43 AM
 #14

With your topic caption, are you saying the Chinese economy is crumbling?

Meanwhile, whether Chinese or not, bitcoin has demonstrated to be independent of an individual economy. I remember the Chinese went against bitcoin early last two years yet nothing has changed.
Well, I think that in the long term, Chinese government would not be able to deal with the issue and would have to come up with a way to sought it out. I read long ago that ICO and mining are banned in China. There might be many reasons behind why would they not recognize Bitcoin but certainly the country has her policies built around the Chinese Yuan and a Blockchain induction will reduce their power they exercise to control the market problems inflation etc.
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April 16, 2019, 10:27:16 AM
 #15

Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.

Looking at the volume of Bitcoin transactions, I don't think that crypto is one of the methods being used by the HNWI to transfer money out of China. The daily transaction volume of BTC is somewhere around $10 to $15 billion. Out of that around 10% originates from China. Now this amount represents only a very small fraction of the Chinese GDP.

 
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April 16, 2019, 10:41:21 AM
 #16

With your topic caption, are you saying the Chinese economy is crumbling?

Meanwhile, whether Chinese or not, bitcoin has demonstrated to be independent of an individual economy. I remember the Chinese went against bitcoin early last two years yet nothing has changed.
Well, I think that in the long term, Chinese government would not be able to deal with the issue and would have to come up with a way to sought it out. I read long ago that ICO and mining are banned in China. There might be many reasons behind why would they not recognize Bitcoin but certainly the country has her policies built around the Chinese Yuan and a Blockchain induction will reduce their power they exercise to control the market problems inflation etc.

Mining is not currently prohibited in China. Most of BTC's mining is carried out in China.
Cryptocurrency trading as well as participation in ICOs is formally prohibited in China, but mining is not even prohibited.


Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.

Looking at the volume of Bitcoin transactions, I don't think that crypto is one of the methods being used by the HNWI to transfer money out of China. The daily transaction volume of BTC is somewhere around $10 to $15 billion. Out of that around 10% originates from China. Now this amount represents only a very small fraction of the Chinese GDP.

The source?
How do they quantify the OTC? and above all how do they identify the origin of the transactions?
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April 16, 2019, 11:19:17 AM
 #17

 I have heard the article about the ban on exploitation in China. But I think they will have to rethink the benefits of BTC and miners that are bringing their country. The money has been greatly increased since Chinese people joined the crypto market and their country is becoming richer than ever.
If the ban is really effective, BTC digging companies can still move to Africa to continue mining. where electricity prices are quite cheap and opportunities are still very much.  Grin

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April 16, 2019, 04:33:52 PM
 #18

Chinese economy is certainly not in pitiful state. There are plenty of stuff going into economy and aspects of it, sometimes some countries are super rich but when you look inside they are all living a good life, sometimes they look super rich but when you look in only the rich are rich and the gap between them and poor are huge.

China is in the second part but even that is getting better, just 20 years ago the poor there worked and lived in their manufacturing factories, they literally only slipped and worked tirelessly and even died there from being tired like hell, today the amount of protection for the workers increased a lot, they are really trying to improve working conditions for everyone, you know how ? They managed not not care about human lives (bad thing) and with the sacrifices made in the 20 years that way they managed to create a better future for themselves.

Now the whole world stopped manufacturing stuff because they knew china would make them far cheaper but after they stopped China realized they are the only source for it and spiked the prices a bit.
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April 18, 2019, 12:56:56 PM
 #19

I don't think that the Chinese economy is crumbling, maybe they want to do something, and we don't know what it is. So we need to wait until May 8 to know the update of the news. But I still curious about did China really want to ban mining.
Obviously, the word "there is a return for the government" means something and it clearly does that the government want something from the miner which they cannot get. For example, the government cannot get tax from the mining itself.

On balance, the relationship between what they earn (from the entire mining sector) to what they lose is clearly unfavorable to the Chinese government.
That will not unfavorable to the Chinese government but not for people who were still mining because although the bitcoin price is not too high right now, they still collecting more and more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price will increase higher. And the Chinese government doesn't realize that because they don't want to see their people become wealthy people in their country. But I am not sure about that, and maybe I am wrong about this.
It could be no doubt one of the lucrative facility the government could give her people if they recognize Bitcoin but keep in mind that there is implicit ban on the mining and ICOs and Cryptocurrency as the People’s Bank of China made it very clear that companies should keep away from getting involved in the transaction of money in the form of crypto. But regardless of the ban etc, Bitcoin will thrive because it is unstoppable.
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April 18, 2019, 02:11:41 PM
 #20

This might be true considering that they have been posing CNY to be the world's currency for some time now, and by allowing a large chunk of bitcoin created into their soil, which could then be converted into USD and placed into off-shore accounts, this is defeating their goal honestly. For quite a long time now, Chinese economy is still Sino-centric, and that is very evident with the recent moves they have pulled off to get their economy boosted and accelerated over everyone else.

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April 18, 2019, 02:54:51 PM
 #21

I don't think that the Chinese economy is crumbling, maybe they want to do something, and we don't know what it is. So we need to wait until May 8 to know the update of the news. But I still curious about did China really want to ban mining.
Obviously, the word "there is a return for the government" means something and it clearly does that the government want something from the miner which they cannot get. For example, the government cannot get tax from the mining itself.

On balance, the relationship between what they earn (from the entire mining sector) to what they lose is clearly unfavorable to the Chinese government.
That will not unfavorable to the Chinese government but not for people who were still mining because although the bitcoin price is not too high right now, they still collecting more and more bitcoin because they believe that bitcoin price will increase higher. And the Chinese government doesn't realize that because they don't want to see their people become wealthy people in their country. But I am not sure about that, and maybe I am wrong about this.
It could be no doubt one of the lucrative facility the government could give her people if they recognize Bitcoin but keep in mind that there is implicit ban on the mining and ICOs and Cryptocurrency as the People’s Bank of China made it very clear that companies should keep away from getting involved in the transaction of money in the form of crypto. But regardless of the ban etc, Bitcoin will thrive because it is unstoppable.
I only wish that in someday, the Chinese government will realize about the existing of bitcoin in their country and they will allow people to use bitcoin although they still prohibited the mining. Bitcoin can be a new solution for their citizen to change their life into a better life so people can start to use and make money like what other people did.
Yes, I agree that bitcoin is unstoppable and it will grow fast in the future and if the Chinese government still don't want to use cryptocurrency, so let it be.

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April 18, 2019, 02:55:29 PM
 #22

China has been spreading the news of bitcoin mining ban frequently lately and I don't know whether it is true or not but I think they are just trying to spread a FUD.
Their motive might be that people dump bitcoin but I don't think that will happen since people have been over this already.
Even if China bans bitcoin mining it will create a temporary effect on bitcoin's price but then things will get settled up as bitcoin recovers the price.
New miners might then join the pool and if not then the older ones will be more benefitial as they will be getting more rewards.



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April 18, 2019, 03:08:53 PM
 #23

This might be true considering that they have been posing CNY to be the world's currency for some time now, and by allowing a large chunk of bitcoin created into their soil, which could then be converted into USD and placed into off-shore accounts, this is defeating their goal honestly. For quite a long time now, Chinese economy is still Sino-centric, and that is very evident with the recent moves they have pulled off to get their economy boosted and accelerated over everyone else.
Yes, China is accelerating and it is much faster than what people have witnessed. it is implicitly manipulating countries in the East by lending money to build the country. China now has a large market share in the export of industrial goods.
We should appreciate them and invest more in them before their economies are stronger than the US.

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April 19, 2019, 09:15:24 PM
 #24

Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.
Wow, you are very smart, I never thought of it this way but the truth is that you are very much correct about this, one thing I know about the Chinese is that they can do anything possible to make sure that money doesn't leave their country but circulate around their country, this is the main reason why they banned a lot of website use in china, well if they want to ban mining in their country, then they should go ahead and ban it already, those miners would just have to relocate.
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April 19, 2019, 09:44:05 PM
 #25

China has been spreading the news of bitcoin mining ban frequently lately and I don't know whether it is true or not but I think they are just trying to spread a FUD.
Their motive might be that people dump bitcoin but I don't think that will happen since people have been over this already.
Even if China bans bitcoin mining it will create a temporary effect on bitcoin's price but then things will get settled up as bitcoin recovers the price.
New miners might then join the pool and if not then the older ones will be more benefitial as they will be getting more rewards.
As always with all news like this it has not been taking into affect or confirmed yet, since for years now Chinese bitcoiners and people involved with crypto have invested money time and time into machines and mining rigs and relied on it to provide income for them, it would not only hurt them but it will also have an effect on the economy as well since it has made its roots in its economical base, and this might not take place immediately but this will end up effect bitcoin over all so i don't think it will go through.

 
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April 20, 2019, 05:37:09 AM
 #26

Now I see the point why they are pushing this mining ban in China. As always, Chinese people did not want to get their money out of country, but of course thwy want to get other countries' money into their cpuntry. However, the hole will be blockchain, specficaly bitcoin mining inside China where they spend their real-money for energy comsumption and spread digital money through out other countries.
Wow, you are very smart, I never thought of it this way but the truth is that you are very much correct about this, one thing I know about the Chinese is that they can do anything possible to make sure that money doesn't leave their country but circulate around their country, this is the main reason why they banned a lot of website use in china, well if they want to ban mining in their country, then they should go ahead and ban it already, those miners would just have to relocate.

that's exactly what I tried to say from the first post.
The Chinese are also undermining to get BTC for the sole reason of exporting currency from their country.
Obviously they are not the only ones to do it, but the fact that their country lives its economy in a totally closed way, makes btc the solution to their problems.
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April 20, 2019, 06:08:40 AM
 #27

The whole world is in a pitiful state today. USA is on verge of collapsing. These things are of advantage to cryptos. When people fear a meltdown in global economy, they run to something which isn't much correlated to it. People will start investing in cryptos as it is decentralized and not related directly to fiat and hence, the global economy. People will choose cryptos as a safe alternative for their investments.

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