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Author Topic: Realistic Predictions for Bitcoin?  (Read 392 times)
kingplaya4
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April 15, 2019, 05:12:58 PM
 #1

There seems to be a lot of insanity out there. I recently saw a youtube video claiming 98 million dollars a bitcoin as some poin in the not too distant future. That would mean btc's value would approach a quadrillion dollars! Maybe everyone is expecting the US to go Zimbabwe and your btc will be worth 98 million dollar with which you will be able to purchase a bottle of water.

First we need BTC to get to a trillion market cap, which I think is definitely doable IF it becomes more easy to buy. Less KYC, more ATMs, but with governments seeing btc as a challenge, that seems unlikely. A lot of media excitement at Bitcoin breaking a 200 billion, 500 billion etc market cap could get it to a trillion.

It will likely not become easier to buy, so we need another trigger. I think a repeat of the 2008 recession could do it. Probably btc woud initially fall, but then move up. The question is how high before investors want to cash their chips in? There's a ton of people sitting on a couple of btc. If each one becomes worth 50k and the dollar is worth just a fraction less than what it it is now, a lot are going to cash out and buy houses and cars. There will be greed, but there will also be fear and its not hard for a normal person too google bitcoin spiking to 20k and quickly crashing. Getting back to that 20k would be an initial target then 50k which is a nice round media friendly number and one that is high enough that it would tempt people to cash in.

I think bitcoin needs a few years to get up to that 20k and if it happens slowly but steadily, then we can hit 50k. If everything goes well and it starts getting easier to buy and easier to spend, I think 1/2 of gold's market cap is a reasonable goal. There are other crypto currencies out there and some people will still buy gold and it would take a long time for Central Banks to transition from gold to crypto. I don't think such a thing would ever happen in our lifetimes, but they might start adding crypto to their reserves rather than selling off gold. So 3.5 trillion I think is a good next goal which takes us to roughly 175,000 per btc.

This is assuming the government/media don't start supporting a new crypto that is backed by Gold or the full faith of the US government or god knows what people might believe in. But getting back the target of 175k, I say we need around 3 years to get it back to 20k, it will probably fall back again for some period, maybe 2 years, then mass adoption, recession etc could get it to 100k by 2030, and I'm not going to bother with an estimate for doubling that.

Could it go on a massive run and spike to 20k this year? Sure, who the heck knows. But to be sustainable it would have to be supported by something, maybe if a country or two adopted it as their national currency. Something radical and unforseen. I imagine some will naysay this, but an asset currently worth almost 100 billion increasing in value by 20 times in the next decade is actually insanely optimistic. Look at stocks that started off as penny stocks, they don't keep increasing in value exponentially year after year and although btc isn't a stock, there is a limit to how valuable it can be.
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April 15, 2019, 05:23:20 PM
 #2

It is actually the first time I have read a prediction so detailed and realistic. I am done reading predictions bitcoin crashing or bitcoin mooning without even grounds to depend their statement.

 


First we need BTC to get to a trillion market cap, which I think is definitely doable IF it becomes more easy to buy. Less KYC, more ATMs, but with governments seeing btc as a challenge, that seems unlikely. A lot of media excitement at Bitcoin breaking a 200 billion, 500 billion etc market cap could get it to a trillion.


This one will be one of the key factors for bitcoin to rise again. With ease on access to bitcoin, we can expect people to be able to buy it with ease and comfort, which will somehow increase demand. All things will follow, not to add further cryptocurrency development which helps the whole cryptomarket to gain even more market demand.

kingplaya4
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April 15, 2019, 05:48:20 PM
 #3

It is actually the first time I have read a prediction so detailed and realistic. I am done reading predictions bitcoin crashing or bitcoin mooning without even grounds to depend their statement.

 


Thanks Smiley I agree people need to back up their predictions, otherwise they are just cheerleading, and they need to use a measuring stick, even if it is all the money in the world, at least I know where they are coming from. Ripple is the most hilarious, people are expecting it to be worth many times more than all gold, dollars, euros and even property that exist in the world!


This one will be one of the key factors for bitcoin to rise again. With ease on access to bitcoin, we can expect people to be able to buy it with ease and comfort, which will somehow increase demand. All things will follow, not to add further cryptocurrency development which helps the whole cryptomarket to gain even more market demand.

It will have to get easier somehow, but this could be a point where my age makes me more pessimistic than I should be. Perhaps an ap will be released by a trusted company that easily converts your dollars/euros to btc for a tiny fee with no KYC required! Seems unlikely, but who knows, maybe not impossible.
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April 15, 2019, 05:56:00 PM
 #4

It will not be steadily since fiat is the leading currency for most the upcoming time. we will get to those values if the majority dont sell to fiat but keep it to spend it again on products/services that will do the same. where more fiat is coming inn less is going out. its a mind set that needs to change.

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April 15, 2019, 06:02:39 PM
 #5

It will not be steadily since fiat is the leading currency for most the upcoming time. we will get to those values if the majority dont sell to fiat but keep it to spend it again on products/services that will do the same. where more fiat is coming inn less is going out. its a mind set that needs to change.

Fiat is not hold at all instead of that people will goes to buy the gold or diamond or property as a asset for their hard earned money but bitcoin or Ethereum is not consider in that way. That is being considered as investment like gold.
Once in the forum also people compared bitcoin with gold.

To change such fiat usage even centralized medium introduced some stable coins in the market may be in future we can find the many countries own coins.

kingplaya4
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April 15, 2019, 06:03:02 PM
 #6

Yes, of course, people will need to start holding on increases, because they believe in it and because they prefer to transact in it. Personally when I give predictions it's just thinking in today's dollar value as the dollar is still the reserve currency. To get to McAffee's prediction, BTC would have to become the reserve currency.
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April 15, 2019, 06:26:06 PM
 #7

To change such fiat usage even centralized medium introduced some stable coins in the market may be in future we can find the many countries own coins.
Fiat money (and every other currency) is used as a medium of exchange and it would be used like that. Usually, people are not buying fiat money to get any profit and it is not considered as an investment. The same thing gonna happen when any country would issue its cryptocurrency. That would be a stablecoin that would serve as a fiat currency but would be more suitable for some online transactions. People are not supposed to get profit from this coin.

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April 15, 2019, 06:46:06 PM
 #8

I am expecting the bitcoin price skyrocketing very soon and the market will see a great move but this is all base on speculation and not an investment advice, but I see a great market very soon.

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April 15, 2019, 07:12:46 PM
 #9

I agree that we have to much predictions that are based on exaggerated wishes and have no ground in reality at all.  These are actually no predictions but only pure mentioning of something that users would desire to happen but it's not going to happen in real world. Like Bitcoin to be worth 1 million dollars.
So we need more actual preductions that are based on analysis and taking into consideration all relevant circumstances, that are not based on social networks and blogs information, something that users could take seriously. But this is very rare.

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April 15, 2019, 08:38:39 PM
 #10

Yes, of course, people will need to start holding on increases, because they believe in it and because they prefer to transact in it. Personally when I give predictions it's just thinking in today's dollar value as the dollar is still the reserve currency. To get to McAffee's prediction, BTC would have to become the reserve currency.
I did not see any real predictions about the price of Bitcoin in the near or distant future. I personally believe that Bitcoin will never even reach the price of one hundred thousand dollars. It will fall whenever it becomes a significant increase in price. Bitcoin holders themselves will not give him the opportunity to grow in value for a long time. We must first take into account the psychology of people. Good well can only be on the graphs, but not in reality.

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April 15, 2019, 08:45:16 PM
 #11

I am expecting the bitcoin price skyrocketing very soon and the market will see a great move but this is all base on speculation and not an investment advice, but I see a great market very soon.

Agree, most of these price tag on Bitcoin are speculations and may or may not come to reality. Nobody should give advice base on speculations from these speculators because the end results will be negative, ensure you do your research before invest into cryptocurrency. The market will surge very sonn.

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April 15, 2019, 08:55:14 PM
 #12

Honestly this is the first time that I will read this kind of prediction it is like that he is so sure on what he saying about what happened next here in bitcoin industry. Very positive insight but I hope it will happen. But I 20k is a huge increase coming from 5300 in our present price but I know that all of us will hoping in this kind of development.

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April 15, 2019, 09:11:12 PM
 #13

The difficult part when predicting the price of Bitcoin is that it doesn't have to be logical. There is nothing in the universe that says the price of Bitcoin must be represented by the value it provides.

It is worth what people are willing to pay for it.

The other interesting thing is that the price is not necessarily what it's worth. I know that sounds crazy, but let me explain. When someone calculates the market cap, all that they are doing is taking the most recent transaction (the most recent buy/sell) and multiplying that price by the total number of bitcoins in circulation. This is not the total amount that has been invested in BTC and is sitting in some vault somewhere.

Sure, the market cap might be $89 billion, but that doesn't mean it is worth $89 billion. Hypothetically if everyone in BTC got together and said, "you know what, we should all cash out, let's split the $89 proportionally based on our relative ownership" - they couldn't. The moment some of them started selling the price would begin to drop due to supply and demand. It would plummet and as the price of the most recent transaction went lower and lower, the total market cap would approach zero well before the people with coins could realize even a fraction of the $89 billion.

Similarly, if there is enough hype and people are looking to buy at the same time, there is no reason the price couldn't hit some of the outrageous numbers that people throw around. It is unlikely to sit at those numbers for sustained lengths of time, but not impossible to hit them. All it takes is one crazy person willing to pay $1 for 1 satoshi and BTC is worth $100k at a market cap of $1,764,737,500,000,000.

I had a similar discussion with my friend in early 2017. I predicted that XRP would do well because it had such a low price per coin. She's like no way, the circulating supply is so high and so the market cap is all that matters. Yet I kid you not, one of the things I kept hearing from people was how XRP was so "cheap" relative to BTC. "What if it goes to $20k like BTC?". People kind of suck sometimes!
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April 15, 2019, 10:04:29 PM
 #14

20000 is nothing really if you think at it in global terms. Compare the current market cap of bitcoin with big companies like mcdonald's, apple, amazon. If one person like Jeff Bezos can have enough money to double the price of bitcoin the predictions of 100 thousand dollars per bitcoin aren't that far fetched.

The chances of one billionaire selling everything to buy bitcoin are very low but what if a number of them spent 10% of their wealth? We would be above 20 thousand tomorrow and we wouldn't need a countrywide adoption.

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April 15, 2019, 10:11:01 PM
 #15

When you say prediction,you don't know if it will happen someday or not. It is just something you want to happen through your own thinking base on your research or base on what's happening inside crypto market but it reality prediction is just prediction.

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April 15, 2019, 10:24:09 PM
 #16

"Realistic prediction", most of the time the btc price predictions are based on assumptions, speculations, and knowledge about market movements, but 90% of the time (and I'm being nice here) those predictions end up being innacurate. Just look at Tom Lee, a btc permabull from wall street who always tries to predict the btc price and never gets it right...Or look at those who remained bearish and predicted sub 2k months ago...IMO there's no such thing as a realistic prediction in the crypto market.

But to be sustainable it would have to be supported by something, maybe if a country or two adopted it as their national currency.
Very, very unlikely.

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April 15, 2019, 10:26:02 PM
 #17

We could see the bully run on the 20k as you mentioned if the government continues to put their hands into cryptocurrency markets.
You can already see an upwards price direction from the past days. We have already reached out above $5.200 2x now (one last week and another prior week before that).

Just by the fact we are seeing alot of embrassements from new investors as well as new companies reaching out for their payments update for having cryptos as one of their payments system it means price will go up sooner or later as more People will join the pumping (since they will be buying just for their payments).

I feel both Happy and Optimistic about the current developments on real life situations cryptocurrencies are being present at.

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April 15, 2019, 10:30:55 PM
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We could see the bully run on the 20k as you mentioned if the government continues to put their hands into cryptocurrency markets.
You can already see an upwards price direction from the past days. We have already reached out above $5.200 2x now (one last week and another prior week before that).

Just by the fact we are seeing alot of embrassements from new investors as well as new companies reaching out for their payments update for having cryptos as one of their payments system it means price will go up sooner or later as more People will join the pumping (since they will be buying just for their payments).

I feel both Happy and Optimistic about the current developments on real life situations cryptocurrencies are being present at.

Though the price increase is relatively slow, at least we are moving in the positive direction. Not only the price, but the mass adoption is growing. Merchants and shops are starting to accept crypto even with the volatility risk, we can see that their number is growing. So I believe, this is doing great for the crypto community.

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April 15, 2019, 10:33:15 PM
 #19

I estimate that bitcoin will continue to grow and develop. But the growth is still small. I see investors cannot forget the events in 2018. So they are still traumatized. Until the end of 2019 I estimate that bitcoin is not more than $ 9,000.

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April 15, 2019, 11:22:23 PM
 #20

The only Realistic Predictions for Bitcoin is that you can sell your bitcoins for around $5.000 tomorrow on your local exchange. What the price will be at the Consensus in May or in 2020 around the halving or in 2023, when the next bull cycle tops, that will just be guessing. No one knows. Will the price of bitcoins go to 100k one day, most likely! and we will probably continue to see new all-time highs the next many decards.

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