From what I see in the Charts, after a significant new ATH, so far, there always was a 80-90% correction. Buying a Dip now, makes no sense to me. I am invested, but not buying more dips atm. The Chart is in a range (daily) and as long as price does not break out of it, why even bother? I am accumulating FIAT and once there is a good chance, I will invest that FIAT into
BTCUSD. Buying every dip was not the best decision in 2018, so why would it be clever now, when price is in an downtrend?
You are assuming a downtrend.
You might be right, but you might not be right. Odds seem a bit against your presumption if you zoom out.. and also consider, stock to flow and 4-year fractal as minimum reference points. and also consider exponential s-curve adoption as an additional consideration.
So far we have had a 56% correction.. sure we could get more, or we might not get more.
buying on dips and DCA have been sound strategies and made people decently rich, especially if they have an investment timeline of at least 4 years... sometimes shorter investment timelines can work too, but chances are much better to have at least a 4 year investment timeline when buying on dips or otherwise investing in such an volatile investment, and sure not even 4 years is guaranteed to be profitable, even though BTC is likely one of the most asymmetric bets (especially one with a decently sized market cap) that can be made..
In other words, you are a fool if prepare for down, but you are not adequately prepared for up... and staying in cash comes off as pretty dumb when considered from the perspective of whether you are sufficiently and adequately prepared for up, even while you are likely prepared to have fun staying poor.
Thank you! I am indeed assuming a Downtrend. Yes in the bigger Picture there is an Uptrend, sure.
I am not even suggesting that you should not be playing around with some of your stash, if that is what you are inclined to do. Some people just cannot stop their inclination to want to be BTC price prediction gods, but the fact of the matter is none of us really know, especially in the shorter term.
Of course, the longer term is not guaranteed either, but part of any BTC accumulation strategy would contain some kinds of assumptions that in the longer term you are going to advantaged by engaging in ongoing BTC accumulation, even if it can take a long time to accumulate.
Whether it takes 1 month or 4-7 years to get back to profits, any of us with a longer term investment horizon have found that bitcoin has tended to far exceed minimum expectations, so frequently we are going to just be causing too much stress on ourselves if we might be strategizing too much with the dips and then half we get right and half we get wrong, or even if you are capable of getting 80% right (which is a likely BIG if), you may end up losing way more than you make on the occasions that you guess (predict) the BTC price correction wrong.. and the price can move violently against you with your continuing to wait for a correction that does not come.
From your description, sounds as if you are hardly at all in BTC because you said that you have been stacking fiat waiting for the BIG dip blah blah blah, and sure I don't even have a problem with your having had decide to build up your fiat reserves so long as you have a sufficient amount in BTC.
Let's say for example you have a total investment portfolio of $100k, and you have various investments, and you have a goal to have 1% to 10% in BTC. I am thinking that you better make sure that you keep your 1% to 10% in BTC, and personally over the years, I have just let the BTC portion of my total investment ride, so in 2014, my goal was on the more aggressive end of allocating 10% into BTC, but by the time I reached 10% in late 2014, I decided to keep accumulating BTC, and by the middle of 2015, I could see that I was getting over 12% in BTC - and with the way that I was continuing to DCA into BTC with any extra cash that came in, I was projected to get to 13.5% by the end of 2015, so somewhere in the middle of 2015, I had decided to reconsider some of my BTC strategies in terms of authorizing myself to sell some BTC as the BTC price went up (that is if the BTC price were to go up - above $250 at that time).
In other words, by the time mid-2015 came, I had been accumulating BTC since late 2013, and I had only established my 10% target level in late 2014, and I had always been nervous about selling any BTC, so if I ever did sell any to gift to someone or something like that, I would replace within a relatively short period of time because I did not want my BTC stash to diminish.
Surely, each of us has to consider these kinds of matters out within our own comfort levels, in terms of how prepared are we for UP versus how prepared are we for down, and it seems to me that the fact that even when I had made some peak (over) allocations into BTC of 13.5%, I had already had investments outside of BTC that constituted 86.5% of my total investment portfolio.
Also, even when BTC went up to $19,666 in late 2017, I did not get all worked up about selling a bunch of BTC because I was pretty much comfortable with my BTC investment levels even though I had put around 3.5% more into BTC than I had anticipated, but I never really did shave all of that over allocation off of BTC because my overallocation has continued to rise along with my regular allocation (the 10% aspect), and so even when BTC prices went to $19,666 in late 2017 and then corrected back down to $3,124 in late 2018, my BTC allocation rose through price appreciation to become something like 87.5% of my total holdings and then dropped back down to around 45%, and sure I did some selling and buying back, but mostly I just continued to HODL my BTC, so perhaps now my BTC holdings ends up being close to 89% of all my investments, and I feel no need to fuck around with it or to play BIG with it, because there is also a theory about letting your winners ride, too...
BTC has been a winner, and is likely to continue to be a winner, and if you fuck around trying accumulate more BTC through selling, you are likely going to end up with less BTC because you are engaged in too much gambling behavior rather than just concentrating more narrowly on making sure that you reach your BTC accumulation goals prior to playing around with any kind of significant amounts of your BTC stash in terms of trying to guess BTC's short term direction and even to expect a greater than 56% btc price correction currently when we already had a 56% price correction.. so are we going to get more? maybe, maybe not.. and if you are betting large portions of your BTC/cash on one direction rather than the other you are likely going to be never really taking the advantage of the power of ongoing BTC accumulation through more conservative means... that sometimes are difficult to appreciate in the shorter term, but in the longer term, it becomes quite apparently good ideas to accumulate BTC rather than gambling with whatever BTC you had been able to accumulate.
And buying Dips is not a bad thing, no doubt. But buying EVERY dip...
Of course, every accumulation strategy can prudently include lump sum investing, DCA, buying the dip and HODL... Selling is not a prudent approach.. it is a gambling approach. Sometimes overly waiting is problematic too.. so if you have $1,000 per month that you can invest into BTC, and you started to get nervous in the beginning of the year about buying BTC on an uptrend, then you may have accumulated $7k to potentially invest. Hopefully, you have already invested most of that $7k instead of just waiting for more dip that might not happen.
Yes, each person's situation is going to differ regarding how long s/he feels comfortable sitting on cash, and if there is a cashflow, then deciding where to put such cashflow can be unclear, yet if you have a plan, then you can have some allocated towards buying regularly and some allocated to buying on dips.
To me, honestly, price is only ranging. I look at the daily, and all I see is a range. I am not buying, nor selling a range.
Sure, you may have time to continue to buy in this range.. let's call it $30k to $38k, and if you have already bought in this here range, then you might feel that you have time to wait.
If you sold around these prices or even in the $50ks, and you have not bought back yet some or most of what you sold, then I am not sure what to say to you beyond that you may be gambling too much.. but sure, how much to buy back is a question, and if you have little to no BTC, then you are playing a much different game.. and you better have already met or exceeded your BTC accumulation levels before you are fucking around with waiting for lower prices that may well not happen.
I am waiting until
BTCUSD price breaks out of this range. We had the same exact thing early 2018.
We are not likely to be in the same part of the cycle as 2018. so it is problematic to be comparing early 2018 to now.. but do whatever you like.
I bough the dip around 10k that time, assuming that price would go up. What have I learned? Price does not care what I assume, so I wait to see what price does. Last time price fell from 10k to 3k, and that costet me quite some money and nerves. I know it was my fault. So I learn from that fault. I price leaves that daily Range to the top, I am happy to buy. If not, I am happy to wait until I see something I call a bottom then.
I bought through all of 2014, when the BTC price dropped from $1,163 to below $200, and I have no regrets. Yeah, my BTC portfolio was in the negative until about 2016, but sometimes that is how things go.
If you were in accumulation stage in 2018, there was nothing wrong with buying supra $10k and continuing to buy all the way down to $3k and even possibly running out of money at $6k because it takes a while to accumulate BTC and to figure out how to manage your cashflow, including not having any crystal ball about where BTC prices are going - especially when you are caught within the time...
When you look back at the situation, you believe that you are a genius because you say that you should have done x, y and z based on knowledge that came after the fact... Yeah right.
You are playing little games with yourself if you believe that you know where the BTC price is currently going to go in the short term merely because you have so much "experience." Your experience should tell you that you have hardly no fucking clue from this here current price of $33,500 (as I type) whether the BTC price is going to go UP or DOWN from here.
You can act like you know, but you don't know shit, and hopefully you are not overly gambling on one direction versus another, and additionally, BTC remains such a BIG ASS asymmetric bet, and probably one of the BIGGEST of asymmetric bets that we have ever had in our lifetimes, and any of us who know about BTC should be making sure that that we are more prepared for UP rather than overly preparing for down.. In other words, it is better to over prepare for up with this particular asset, while also appreciating that we are likely in the largest wealth history in mankind, and it is better to benefit from that wealth transfer rather than being on the sidelines watching it as if you believe that you are going to be able to get a bit more BTC at a lower price blah blah blah.
But you are right, I am to focused on what to do if price goes down further. I need to prepare for the other way as well. So, thank your for your answer!
Many people overly prepare for down, and the fact that ONLY a small percentage of the world's population even owns BTC or has any kind of significant holdings in BTC (even if they know about it) likely shows that any of us who even marginally prepare for UP are going to be quite advantaged over the vast majority of the worlds population who are still ignoring or under preparing in regards to even establishing a minimally prudent stash in the 1% to 10% arena. In other words, if you do not have any BTC, first aim to get 0.21BTC, then aim to get 1 BTC, then 2 BTC then 5 BTC, then 10 BTC , then 21 BTC, and maybe if you are new to BTC, you are not even sure if you can get up to 1 BTC, but you just do what you can because it can take a long time to reach some kind of semblance of fuck you status.. and sometimes people take all of their working careers of 30-40 years and never reach fuck you status, and even if you are able to cut that down to 15 - 20 years and actually make it to fuck you status, that might really be a big accomplishment, and surely bitcoin seems to be a vehicle to help to get to fuck you status so long as you are treating it as a long term investment rather than fucking around with it in a gambling kind of way.
I am indeed assuming a Downtrend. Yes in the bigger Picture there is an Uptrend, sure. And buying Dips is not a bad thing, no doubt. But buying EVERY dip... To me, honestly, price is only ranging. I look at the daily, and all I see is a range. I am not buying, nor selling a range.
Get the context of WHY, and WHEN the topic was created. It was during the time when the sentiment was so bad, most of the newbies/non-Bitcoiners thought/hoped Bitcoin would crash again like November 2018, and DIE. Hahaha.
I will change the title to not confuse the newbies.
To me, it seems ridiculous for you to be changing the title of the thread (which you already did... but whatever, peeps do ridiculous things all the time.. hahahahahaha.. you are no exception.. that's for sure)...
No matter what, whenever setting up any "buy the dip" strategy, every person is likely better to figure out for him/herself regarding what that means to them.. both in the context of who they are at the time and also what their portfolio looks like at the time and also what they believe the BTC price is going to do.
The vast majority of normies are likely much better off emphasizing most of their ongoing BTC accumulation strategy with DCA, and surely I have no problem with anyone (even someone in early BTC accumulation stages) keeping some funds on the side for buying dips, and surely anyone is going to run out of "buying on the dip" funds way faster if they buy every single dip, yet no matter what, the way that they employ any buy the dip strategy is something that they have to consider for their own circumstances - no matter where we are in the BTC price cycle.. because we even may have noticed that we might believe that we are in one part of what we believe is the BTC price cycle, but the BTC price is not really conforming (or cooperating) with what it is "supposed to do" in that part of the BTC price cycle, which largely tells us to moderate the amount of emphasis that we may well have been giving to buying on the dip, and probably putting a bit more emphasis in DCA... potentially complementary ways of thinking about the matter.
