Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Wind_FURY]

Zoom out, there's a bull/bear cycle pattern that Bitcoin always follows.

There is always a bull/bear cycle alright but if you analyze the previous cycles you realize that this is a brand new trend that has never happened.

For example it is unprecedented to see this much drop after such a tiny rise to a very low ATH.
The lowest price (currently $25k) is also unprecedented since the last cycle's ATH has never been reached in the bear part of the next cycles. Meaning when the $20k bubble popped price went as low as $3200 and previous ATH was $1100 (3x higher) or when the $1100 bubble popped it went down to $150 and previous ATH was about $20 (7x higher).

Is every cycle required to be as large, or as closely proportional as the last cycle? I believe not. This cycle might be "such a tiny rise to a very low ATH", but it shouldn't be assumed that the next bull cycles will be smaller and smaller surges too.

The problem I have is not even the drop itself but the reason why people are panic selling. They aren't panic selling because of bear market or bubble pop or anything like that. As I said above, people are panic selling simply because S&P 500 is crashing which makes no sense at all!

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

[1714050514]

1714050514

[istiak2277]

I do not believe this not any more. Instead, I want to say bye with everything in a bull season even scam coin will gives you profits. Sell everything and wait for the next bull season in a bear market. Buying the dip in a bear market is like a suicide because the market will create lower low in every month. I do not care about 2017 or 2018 I see this right now in the current market.

Why don't you think that DCA can help you collect assets at different prices every time you want to buy?

You don't have to buy this asset with all the capital you have in 1 transaction, you can save some of your funds to make another purchase if the price drops lower than before. In the long run the accumulation strategy of buying dip and hold + DCA will help you make a profit, that's great and a lot of people have done it. Then why don't you?

You shouldn't think the downturn is the end, the trend will change and you should be prepared enough and have a number of assets that will benefit you if the trend changes later. The decline in price will eventually form the basis of a new price, and you should know that the price will not always go down.

I was doing DCA in multiple assets from Septermber last year till now. You know what my 6k assets become 1200$ even i brought different assets. Most of them are still promising and doing good, but every dip I brought price goes further down. Last day lose all of my balance in line incident. I thought in spot trading you can not get rekt like future but I was wrong. I do not trust what people say i do not trust how big the project is. Any project could failed so my only aim is to do short term trading and keep my asstes in different stable coin(not a single stable coin) or in bitcoin.

[JayJuanGee]

When the bitcoin price at the end of 2021 reached more than $50k I often saw people buying if the price was below $35k, now in telegram chat a lot of people are spreading FUDs, it even looks like they are massive and organized more than 10 people, are they paid to make users panic?

There is a need to do your own assessment in regards to bitcoin in terms of attempting to assess if you believe that bitcoin is a sufficiently strong investment that you are going to be able to weather the UPs and the DOWNs in the price and continue to buy on a regular basis - whether that is DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing or a combination of those methods.

You already recognize that there may well be some phoniness to the information that you see posted in telegram (or whatever other forums that you participate in).  

On a personal basis, I believe that everyone should be investing some amount of money into bitcoin, even if it ONLY happens to be $10 per week, and surely the more aggressive your ongoing investment, the more likely that your persistence and aggressiveness will payoff   -  so long as you make sure that you have enough money for expenses and even an emergency fund so you do not have to draw upon your bitcoin for a long time 4-10 years or longer.

So, if you are scared about investing into bitcoin, then maybe you would only invest the smaller amounts until you become more comfortable - and in the end, you have to figure out for yourself if there might be some reasonable and ongoing way that you can invest in bitcoin and feel comfortable with your choice.. because it is not good to be shaken out during times like these .. and some people do just pause their buying even though during times like these it may well be better to make sure that you continue to buy. but each of us has to figure out those kinds of balancing matters.

Zoom out, there's a bull/bear cycle pattern that Bitcoin always follows.

There is always a bull/bear cycle alright but if you analyze the previous cycles you realize that this is a brand new trend that has never happened.
For example it is unprecedented to see this much drop after such a tiny rise to a very low ATH.
The lowest price (currently $25k) is also unprecedented since the last cycle's ATH has never been reached in the bear part of the next cycles. Meaning when the $20k bubble popped price went as low as $3200 and previous ATH was $1100 (3x higher) or when the $1100 bubble popped it went down to $150 and previous ATH was about $20 (7x higher).

The problem I have is not even the drop itself but the reason why people are panic selling. They aren't panic selling because of bear market or bubble pop or anything like that. As I said above, people are panic selling simply because S&P 500 is crashing which makes no sense at all!

There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.

Just buy it now, because now the altcoin price is at the bottom, I'm sure with long-term Hold you will have a lot of profit in the future,
buy really cheap coins, like CKB on Binance, because Nervos has very good fundamentals, I'm sure CKB's future could reach $0.1 more

Fuck shitcoins.

This thread is about bitcoin and not about shitcoins.. don't buy that shit and if you want to talk about buying various shitcoins, then talk about it in some other thread.

I do not believe this not any more. Instead, I want to say bye with everything in a bull season even scam coin will gives you profits. Sell everything and wait for the next bull season in a bear market. Buying the dip in a bear market is like a suicide because the market will create lower low in every month. I do not care about 2017 or 2018 I see this right now in the current market.

Why don't you think that DCA can help you collect assets at different prices every time you want to buy?

You don't have to buy this asset with all the capital you have in 1 transaction, you can save some of your funds to make another purchase if the price drops lower than before. In the long run the accumulation strategy of buying dip and hold + DCA will help you make a profit, that's great and a lot of people have done it. Then why don't you?

You shouldn't think the downturn is the end, the trend will change and you should be prepared enough and have a number of assets that will benefit you if the trend changes later. The decline in price will eventually form the basis of a new price, and you should know that the price will not always go down.

You are referring to other assets _BlackStar.  

I agree with everything you said in regards to bitcoin.. but your attempt to apply the same ideas to "a number of assets" is off topic, and we don't know what the fuck you are talking about.. because there are a lot of shitty ones out there, and trying to figure out which one might be less shitty than another is way beyond the topic of this thread.  In other words, maybe you would like to edit your post and see if you are ready, willing and able to say the same thing about bitcoin or were you talking about something other than bitcoin ... by the way, you do not even use the word bitcoin in your post, which is another sign that you might be talking about another topic or some random shitcoin... or even concluding that the same DCA, buying on dip principles can be applied to all of crypto.. Maybe you should clarify what you mean?

I do not believe this not any more. Instead, I want to say bye with everything in a bull season even scam coin will gives you profits. Sell everything and wait for the next bull season in a bear market. Buying the dip in a bear market is like a suicide because the market will create lower low in every month. I do not care about 2017 or 2018 I see this right now in the current market.

Why don't you think that DCA can help you collect assets at different prices every time you want to buy?

You don't have to buy this asset with all the capital you have in 1 transaction, you can save some of your funds to make another purchase if the price drops lower than before. In the long run the accumulation strategy of buying dip and hold + DCA will help you make a profit, that's great and a lot of people have done it. Then why don't you?

You shouldn't think the downturn is the end, the trend will change and you should be prepared enough and have a number of assets that will benefit you if the trend changes later. The decline in price will eventually form the basis of a new price, and you should know that the price will not always go down.

I was doing DCA in multiple assets from Septermber last year till now. You know what my 6k assets become 1200$ even i brought different assets. Most of them are still promising and doing good, but every dip I brought price goes further down. Last day lose all of my balance in line incident. I thought in spot trading you can not get rekt like future but I was wrong. I do not trust what people say i do not trust how big the project is. Any project could failed so my only aim is to do short term trading and keep my asstes in different stable coin(not a single stable coin) or in bitcoin.

Maybe this is a case in point.. ?  This foggy thinking is contagious..

We are not talking about shitcoins or multiple assets in this thread.. because the vast majority of everything else is shit.. and you run the risk of rug pull or some other variation of a scam... the various shitcoins likely correlate with bitcoin on the short term, but if they do not have fundamentals, then it's very risky to believe you can invest in them long term.. and have any level of assurance, and one of the presumptions of this thread is that in the long term your investment is going to pay off whether you buy on the dip, DCA or lump sum.. or even just HODL through the trying periods.  If you are investing into other coins, you do not have those kinds of assurances.. and you need to do some level of fundamental analysis on each of the coins.. and hopefully engage in that fuzzy logic wishful-thinking in some other thread because the overwhelming majority of coins are only following bitcoin (until they don't.. then your fucked - in other words, once your shitcoin goes on a negative trajectory, DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing and HODL is not going to help you.. except perhaps cause you to keep putting money into the crap that keeps going down.. and that is not the case for bitcoin in terms of fundamentals and the reason that those techniques apply to bitcoin and not to shitcoins).

[pooya87]

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

I don't see institutional investors, etc. talk about this "correlation". All I see is regular people insisting on creating this correlation! This basically started in 2020 when someone planted the seed after the simultaneous crash and people forgot about it as soon as price recovered and reached ATH and nobody asked why other markets aren't recovering if there really was a correlation.
They are repeating it today while ignoring that recovery and ATH and lack of correlation there and only focus on the crash part in 2020!!!

There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.

I think Luna shenanigans were like the last straw that helped break the strong resistance ($30k) that might not have happened any other way.

[Wind_FURY]

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

I don't see institutional investors, etc. talk about this "correlation". All I see is regular people insisting on creating this correlation! This basically started in 2020 when someone planted the seed after the simultaneous crash and people forgot about it as soon as price recovered and reached ATH and nobody asked why other markets aren't recovering if there really was a correlation.

They are repeating it today while ignoring that recovery and ATH and lack of correlation there and only focus on the crash part in 2020!!!

It should not bother you what other plebs like us say. Our only "problem" is where to find more work/money and when to deploy capital to buy DIPs, not whether there's a correlation with legacy markets or not. If there's a correlation, then there's a correlation, but our "problem", the good problem, remains the same.

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

Back to the "correlation", you will understand why it's being considered if you follow macro-economic events especially in the United States and China.

There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.

I think Luna shenanigans were like the last straw that helped break the strong resistance ($30k) that might not have happened any other way.

I believe if it wasn't LUNA crash it would be "something else" like COVID-19 crash of 2020. These are merely things we can't control. They're also opening more golden opportunities to buy the DIP, and HODL.

[Woodie]

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

That's one way of looking at it , but these are the big boys of the markets that can make or break our crypto markets...especially if they hodl a huge amount of coins, and once they hit the sell button they simply put more bearish pressure on the markets but with this Dip, means new entrants into the markets as people have been waiting for cheaper coins!

[Wind_FURY]

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

That's one way of looking at it , but these are the big boys of the markets that can make or break our crypto markets...especially if they hodl a huge amount of coins, and once they hit the sell button they simply put more bearish pressure on the markets but with this Dip, means new entrants into the markets as people have been waiting for cheaper coins!

The network has been chugging along, producing block after block for more than 10 years. I'm confident that it has reached a phase that it simply cannot be "killed" anymore. The longer Bitcoin exists, the longer its life expectancy. The Lindy Effect.

Their narrative during the next bear cycle will be, "how low can we buy the DIP", not the same narrative during the last bear cycle which was, "Bitcoin market crashed, it is dying". Do you see the evolution of their perception?

[JayJuanGee]

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

I don't see institutional investors, etc. talk about this "correlation". All I see is regular people insisting on creating this correlation! This basically started in 2020 when someone planted the seed after the simultaneous crash and people forgot about it as soon as price recovered and reached ATH and nobody asked why other markets aren't recovering if there really was a correlation.
They are repeating it today while ignoring that recovery and ATH and lack of correlation there and only focus on the crash part in 2020!!!

I have seen variations of "correlation" talking points coming from all kinds of people, including institutional investors making the same kind of nonsense claims.

Even the way that you frame the issue pooya87, seems to be quite inadequate - because pretty much the whole time that I have been in bitcoin, I have been hearing various kinds of correlation claims (and yeah, you and I have been in bitcoin for a similar amount of time).

I would not even deny that considerable amounts of correlation does not exist, especially if we are either making short-term assessments or attempting to act as if we are making long term assessments without accounting for the actual data.

In other words, sure of course there can appear to be all kinds of correlation in the short term and even we might anticipate some short term factors that will cause bitcoin's price to move but if we zoom the fuck out, we should appreciate that other things are going on in bitcoin, including the nature of its difference as an asset class and also the fact that early stages of adoption is going to contribute towards bitcoin having way more UPside price pressures (and moves) as compared to various mature asset classes/currencies because in part it takes way the hell less capital to move bitcoin UP as compared to various other mature asset classes/currencies.

I am not even sure how productive it would be for me to go into various details regarding how some specific time (or incident) might be pointed out as a starting point to compare bitcoin's prices to other asset classes/currencies because surely some time periods are more representative than others and may well help to illustrate different points about price movement that might have occurred within a certain timeframe that might represent some kind of a point that is being attempted to be made.  Sometimes folks are really disingenuine with the way they present information because they are trying to make certain kinds of points, so then they select their data to argue their various points... and we see this all the time with nocoiners, lowcoiners, bitcoin naysayers, shitcoin pumpeners, and some other similar classes of persons who frequently will start their analysis of bitcoin's supposed comparative price performance in terms of starting with whereever bitcoin had peaked in its price and then arguing their points from there.. and surely sometimes there can be some valid points that are made by starting with the peak, but frequently the various comparative price performance claims are not really trying to get to any kind of meaningful assessment regarding what might be happening in the world that is helpful for people to figure out how they might consider their own allocation into bitcoin.

For sure, there are likely ways to measure bottoms that ends up being more helpful than measuring tops, but even the measurement of bottoms or starting from bottoms can lead some disingenuine posters into skewing data to mislead and misrepresent any kind of attempt at fair analysis and assessments of bitcoin as compared to other asset classes/currencies.

There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.

I think Luna shenanigans were like the last straw that helped break the strong resistance ($30k) that might not have happened any other way.

Surely, it is not easy to know about the various factors to attempt to explain causation - even though I really have tendencies to get aggravated when single cause explanations seem to get more emphases than deserved... and so in that regard, all time there seems to be quite a few things going on that likely contribute to bitcoin price dynamics in a variety of ways, and maybe the short to medium term noise is less important than figuring out larger and broader trends - but in threads like this one, guys may well be striving to figure out various current causal matters in order that they might have greater success to time dips or to figure out if they might need to change some course of action that they have planned for either attempting to accumulate more bitcoin - if that might be amongst the most relevant of goals that we are attempting to discuss in this thread (sure Wind_Fury mentioned this goal, too).

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

I don't see institutional investors, etc. talk about this "correlation". All I see is regular people insisting on creating this correlation! This basically started in 2020 when someone planted the seed after the simultaneous crash and people forgot about it as soon as price recovered and reached ATH and nobody asked why other markets aren't recovering if there really was a correlation.

They are repeating it today while ignoring that recovery and ATH and lack of correlation there and only focus on the crash part in 2020!!!

It should not bother you what other plebs like us say. Our only "problem" is where to find more work/money and when to deploy capital to buy DIPs, not whether there's a correlation with legacy markets or not. If there's a correlation, then there's a correlation, but our "problem", the good problem, remains the same.

I still believe that persons who are engaged in ongoing BTC accumulation are going to still have a variety of circumstances that vary in terms of each of their personal factors, so we should not be assuming everyone who might benefit from discussion of these various correlation (or lack thereof) points is going to be coming at the matter from the same angle.... whether we are referring to how long the person may have already been in bitcoin (including considering how much they may have already screwed up in their historical BTC accumulation strategies/practices) or even if some guys might be new to bitcoin and either coming in with ONLY having a cashflow or they might have a lump sum that is invested in other areas (or maybe already in cash) that they are attempting to figure out some kind of short-to-medium term BTC accumulation strategies and how to possibly best manage and think about the balancing of their circumstances.

So yeah it is not only the management of cashflow that is potentially at issue Wind_FURY.. any of the other personal factors could cause guys to think about the BTC accumulation matter differently, and I suppose it does not hurt to list them to include other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin as compared to other assets, time, skills and abilities to learn, strategize, tweak along the way that might include reallocating from time to time or even trading, the use of leverage or the employment of various financial instruments - and for sure, I am way more an advocate of getting personal basics into place before even attempting to use more complicated methods such as trading, leverage and/or financial instruments - even though each of us has to consider our own circumstance in term of those more sophisticated ways of approaching bitcoin investing and accumulation.

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )

Back to the "correlation", you will understand why it's being considered if you follow macro-economic events especially in the United States and China.

There are a lot of ways that correlation can be raised in current times, and also has been historically raised.. and perhaps none of us really disagree that the correlation claims tend to be misleading and self-selected so I am having some troubles appreciating how much they might need to be explored here.. even though correlation does seem to be an evergreen topic that seems to have quite a bit of evergreen validity because there is likely a decent amount of truth regarding those kinds of claims in the short term, even if they might even be conclusive that bitcoin is going to stay correlated in this particular part of whatever cycle bitcoin is in.. but at the same the correlation dynamics would not be something to completely ignore, either, even if there are tendencies to raise those kinds of questions in ways that could mislead folks in terms of their own psychological and/or financial preparations.

There also seems to be a kind of direct attack on the BTC price through the Luna/UST baloney, that is contributing to actual concrete cascading sales that cause difficulties to buy when the BTC price is dropping so fast and uncertainties regarding when it will bottom.. at least in the short to medium term there may well be some kind of need to feel comfort that the intensity of the BTC price drops have stopped... at least in the short term.

I think Luna shenanigans were like the last straw that helped break the strong resistance ($30k) that might not have happened any other way.

I believe if it wasn't LUNA crash it would be "something else" like COVID-19 crash of 2020. These are merely things we can't control. They're also opening more golden opportunities to buy the DIP, and HODL.

I doubt that the crash or correction that we did experience was inevitable, even though after it happens, we can see that it happened, so it is not like we can change history.

There are a lot of times in bitcoin that purported BTC price gurus proclaim that we "have to" go down before we go up, and then it does not happen, so guys end up getting fucked because they failed/refused to sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP.  I have seen it a lot of times.

We don't know why, but I believe it might be because there are now more institutional investors/hedge funds/professional legacy market traders in Bitcoin Land.

That's one way of looking at it , but these are the big boys of the markets that can make or break our crypto markets...especially if they hodl a huge amount of coins, and once they hit the sell button they simply put more bearish pressure on the markets but with this Dip, means new entrants into the markets as people have been waiting for cheaper coins!

I would not even presume that they have the coins that they claim to have - so in that regard, some of those various funds could end up getting fucked royally if the BTC price ends up moving against them (meaning that the BTC price moves up 100% or 200% or even some other variation that might even be quite lower) and they ONLY have less than 10% of the coins that they claim to have.. They get fucked and maybe any clients using their service gets fucked too if the company is not solvent enough to cover their misrepresentations.  

By the way, another thing is that they are allowed to cover in dollars, so they may well not even be required to hold any bitcoin, but their having had followed their various legal obligations might not relieve them or their clients when they end up not having enough capital to cover BTC price moves against their degenerate gambling that ends up not working out... even account for a hypothetical that they are claiming to have $1billion in bitcoin, but they only have $100 million?  and of course, there are funds that may well be playing with way higher numbers than that.

I suppose that part of my point is that we cannot necessarily presume that financial tools that allow for downward manipulation of the BTC price are going to facilitate them being as successful as they may have been historically with other assets, especially accounting for the bearer asset component to bitcoin that is pretty easy to claim possession (even though clients who use some of the more sophisticated financial instruments might contract away their rights to claim possession of the bitcoin, not everyone with exposure to bitcoin through such instruments is going to enter into such contracts that do not allow them to verify the asset holdings that any company claims to have).

[pooya87]

pretty much the whole time that I have been in bitcoin, I have been hearing various kinds of correlation claims (and yeah, you and I have been in bitcoin for a similar amount of time).

This reminded me of the dumbest "scientific" paper I have ever seen in my life about the correlation between bitcoin price and number of posts on social media. The author was basically suggesting that if you post too many tweets on twitter for example, the price would pump and if you stop posting it would dump

[JayJuanGee]

pretty much the whole time that I have been in bitcoin, I have been hearing various kinds of correlation claims (and yeah, you and I have been in bitcoin for a similar amount of time).

This reminded me of the dumbest "scientific" paper I have ever seen in my life about the correlation between bitcoin price and number of posts on social media. The author was basically suggesting that if you post too many tweets on twitter for example, the price would pump and if you stop posting it would dump

Exactly.. there are all kinds of dumb (or maybe just incomplete) theories involving aspects of public sentiment.. .and I am not even proclaiming that public sentiment is not a factor... even though in this current line of thought when we were talking about questions or correlation, we started out that area of inquiry by focusing on the purported stock market correlation and some of the supposed market analysis experts consider a lot of correlation to exist with the NASDAQ - which I consider to be a whole bunch of bullshit.. in line with it is correlated until it is not.. so in that sense I will agree that all kinds of correlation does exist between bitcoin and various macro-market dynamics - including what the FED does and blah blah blah.. but if you put too many of your chips on those kinds of analyses, you are going to be all fine and dandy, until the short period of time that bitcoin steps up again (just like it did between September 2020 to April 2021 when BTC stepped up from $10k to $60k and then went back to being correlated again.. so you kind of got fucked if you did not prepare for that 5-6x or so short term step up of BTC relatively speaking.. and we have seen those kinds of step ups on a number of occasions in BTC and then subsequent returns to short-term correlation).  

I think that part of my ongoing proclamations that I have trouble explaining what might have happened in the short run, even though there could be some matters that are more dominant than others, and some factors - such as the Kwon Do dumping could end up pushing the BTC price over the edge (to the downside in this case)... yet frequently, that kind of a dumping will only have as much chance to work if it is done at a kind of opportune time... so then there might be some questions about whether the amount of cascading of the BTC price to the negative (and also other projects/coins in the space) that happen could allow for some additional negative events to become more effective before the BTC price sufficiently recovers and enough support builds up to cause further dumps or even FUD spreading to become less effective.  

Surely in recent days, there have been some concerns about whether the various failures of Luna/Terra/Kwon Do could end up contributing to showing some weaknesses in a variety of other shitcoin projects/coins - and some of the various coins/projects have intertwined themselves more with bitcoin than others, and even if we might not be proclaiming any of those various shitcoin matters to be leading the bitcoin price dynamics, there could be some short-term impacts when some further vulnerabilities are found in some of the various shitcoins - and surely even sentiment of the public could end up playing into the effectiveness of those kinds of shitcoin dumps - even if they might not have been the primary driving forces.

[pooya87]

Surely in recent days, there have been some concerns about whether the various failures of Luna/Terra/Kwon Do could end up contributing to showing some weaknesses in a variety of other shitcoin projects/coins - and some of the various coins/projects have intertwined themselves more with bitcoin than others, and even if we might not be proclaiming any of those various shitcoin matters to be leading the bitcoin price dynamics, there could be some short-term impacts when some further vulnerabilities are found in some of the various shitcoins - and surely even sentiment of the public could end up playing into the effectiveness of those kinds of shitcoin dumps - even if they might not have been the primary driving forces.

I think all altcoins have always been intertwined with bitcoin, the simplest evidence is their unavoidable dump each time bitcoin price goes down. But the degree of it has changed multiple times in the past.

For example in early days where people were mostly buying shitcoins using bitcoin, their pump and dumps affected bitcoin positively and negatively in that order. People bought bitcoin with fiat (contributing to its rise) and used it to buy shitcoins then they got dumped so they sold them for bitcoin and sold bitcoin to exit specially if bitcoin was the one causing the shitcoin dumps hence contributing to bitcoin drop itself.

Then the option to buy shitcoins directly with fiat got popular and the degree of their effect decreased as people were using bitcoin less to go in and out of shitcoins but then the exchanges started enforcing a lot of KYC and started having other issues so we went back to before.

In any case the effects were always there. For example I think it was 2017 when a shitcoin exchange got hacked and millions of dollars worth of shitcoins which included ETH was stolen and caused their crash. That dump created some sell pressure on bitcoin too even though it had nothing to do with bitcoin directly.

[JayJuanGee]

Surely in recent days, there have been some concerns about whether the various failures of Luna/Terra/Kwon Do could end up contributing to showing some weaknesses in a variety of other shitcoin projects/coins - and some of the various coins/projects have intertwined themselves more with bitcoin than others, and even if we might not be proclaiming any of those various shitcoin matters to be leading the bitcoin price dynamics, there could be some short-term impacts when some further vulnerabilities are found in some of the various shitcoins - and surely even sentiment of the public could end up playing into the effectiveness of those kinds of shitcoin dumps - even if they might not have been the primary driving forces.

I think all altcoins have always been intertwined with bitcoin, the simplest evidence is their unavoidable dump each time bitcoin price goes down. But the degree of it has changed multiple times in the past.

For example in early days where people were mostly buying shitcoins using bitcoin, their pump and dumps affected bitcoin positively and negatively in that order. People bought bitcoin with fiat (contributing to its rise) and used it to buy shitcoins then they got dumped so they sold them for bitcoin and sold bitcoin to exit specially if bitcoin was the one causing the shitcoin dumps hence contributing to bitcoin drop itself.

Then the option to buy shitcoins directly with fiat got popular and the degree of their effect decreased as people were using bitcoin less to go in and out of shitcoins but then the exchanges started enforcing a lot of KYC and started having other issues so we went back to before.

In any case the effects were always there. For example I think it was 2017 when a shitcoin exchange got hacked and millions of dollars worth of shitcoins which included ETH was stolen and caused their crash. That dump created some sell pressure on bitcoin too even though it had nothing to do with bitcoin directly.

I am not going to deny some of the truth to what you are saying, but such discussion of shitcoin correlation starts to get into some of my pet-peeve areas in which there is all kinds of sloppy analysis out there attempting to make a variety of correlations of shitcoins and bitcoin, and part of the shitcoin pump and dump theses revolve around a variety of confusing and misleading discussions on that point.

It seems that my attempted context in raising the intertwined idea was largely an attempt to be a bit more concrete about our recent Luna/Terra/Do Kwon/shitcoin shenanigans in which whether some of the behavior was intended to directly affect bitcoin or not, their own pegging of their shitcoin to bitcoin, their disclosure of how they expected to defend the peg and even how the whole matter ended up playing out (which had already been hypothesized prior to it happening) ended up causing a decent amount of inevitability that bitcoin was going to be affected when 80k bitcoins end up getting dumped in a short period of time...

There may be some of us, including yourself and even yours truly, who might end up wanting to bow out of certain kinds of conversations, even if we might have somewhat strong speculative ideas because sometimes there may well be too many possible causal factors that go into some of our areas of speculation that it becomes too far detached from plausible scenarios if we try to argue about what might happen after x, y and z have already happened.. but if x, y and z have not yet happened, then what good is it going to do to get into such discussions that assume x, y and z to have had already happened when they may or may not even end up happening.

Anyhow, I personally try to stay on more direct and immediate scenarios rather than getting to too many legs down the road because even though I have some ideas about those kinds of matters (and sometimes even strong ideas), I don't find very much discussion of them to be very helpful or actionable in terms of what is happening right now. 

For example, when folks start to proclaim that bitcoin fees are not going to be sufficient to sustain bitcoin mining/security incentives once the reward is reduced below some threshold point that seems to be way into the future, and I just start to get irritated as fuck with some of those conversations because even though there is some kinds of preparations that can be made now to account for such, there is a certain amount need to see how matters play out in order to know how much if any further preparations (and in what direction) may well need to be made.. So, even if there might be some current time considerations/preparations regarding further out scenarios, it can be frustrating to spend too much time in considering them in a shorter (or even medium) time frame, whether we are referring to the next 2-4 years or even preparation/considerations for a longer time frame like 4-12 years.

[Wind_FURY]

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )

I accept that the future is unpredictable, I was merely pointing at that, based on past data, it's more probable that we'll see the same pattern continue, or may have already showed the same signs of what's about to happen by the next halving.

You find it laughable? S2F was also based on past data, and also modeled a pattern, although based on flawed assumptions.

Shower thought. We will see a surge, with every "influencer" posting that the "bottom is in", then slowly it goes back under $30,000 again, possibly continuing to the 200-week SMA line.

[JayJuanGee]

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )

I accept that the future is unpredictable, I was merely pointing at that, based on past data, it's more probable that we'll see the same pattern continue, or may have already showed the same signs of what's about to happen by the next halving.

You find it laughable? S2F was also based on past data, and also modeled a pattern, although based on flawed assumptions.

The S2F model is not dead and neither are the ideas (and data) underlying it as a way of looking at bitcoin....

You can build it into your way of looking at bitcoin however you like, but poo-pooing it comes off as unnecessarily bad thinking... but hey, you do you.

Shower thought. We will see a surge, with every "influencer" posting that the "bottom is in", then slowly it goes back under $30,000 again, possibly continuing to the 200-week SMA line.

Well the 200 week moving average is at about $22k right now and it is going up around $15 to $20 per day. 

Surely it is possible that the BTC price could touch the 200-week moving average, but we also would like to get some idea regarding how much of a move up is necessary to be reasonable in terms of considering the local bottom to be in.. which is currently at about $25,401...

Our having had gone below the 100-week moving average in the past week (which is currently at $35k) has likely put us into a bear market framework, so in order to get out of a bear market framework, we likely need to get back above the 100-week moving average and also either to stay above it for a certain amount of time or perhaps to get sufficiently above the 100-week moving average to start to consider the bottom to be in. 

So for sure, one thing is having the bottom in and then another thing is resuming up...

and when we passed above $46k and even got really close $50k (supra $48k) just a short time ago, we were getting to be very close to being in a position in which the $32,951 bottom could have been called to have been in.. and some folks did make that call.. but I still believe there were not too many making such a call.. so your desires to label others as premature callers seems a bit too much in the camp of wanting to criticize the assessments of others.. and surely a lot of folks can be wrong in their assessments and also could affect their practices too... but I still don't see what purpose comes out from making fun of that - unless you believe that there is something to learn from the whole matter regarding where we are at right now.

Do you want to say that everyone should be waiting to stock up on bitcoin?  that would seem ridiculous to me., even though I do understand why it makes sense to keep some dry powder available.

Another thing is that if someone is just coming into bitcoin, then what do you want to tell them?  Wait before you buy? 

Personally, I would say get the fuck started.. The lower prices that you are projecting may or may not happen, even though it seems that we are technically in a bear market, but if you have no bitcoin, then you are ONLY prepared for one BTC price direction, which is not the place anyone should be.

[Wind_FURY]

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )

I accept that the future is unpredictable, I was merely pointing at that, based on past data, it's more probable that we'll see the same pattern continue, or may have already showed the same signs of what's about to happen by the next halving.

You find it laughable? S2F was also based on past data, and also modeled a pattern, although based on flawed assumptions.

The S2F model is not dead and neither are the ideas (and data) underlying it as a way of looking at bitcoin....

You can build it into your way of looking at bitcoin however you like, but poo-pooing it comes off as unnecessarily bad thinking... but hey, you do you.

Shower thought. We will see a surge, with every "influencer" posting that the "bottom is in", then slowly it goes back under $30,000 again, possibly continuing to the 200-week SMA line.

Well the 200 week moving average is at about $22k right now and it is going up around $15 to $20 per day.  

Surely it is possible that the BTC price could touch the 200-week moving average, but we also would like to get some idea regarding how much of a move up is necessary to be reasonable in terms of considering the local bottom to be in.. which is currently at about $25,401...

Our having had gone below the 100-week moving average in the past week (which is currently at $35k) has likely put us into a bear market framework, so in order to get out of a bear market framework, we likely need to get back above the 100-week moving average and also either to stay above it for a certain amount of time or perhaps to get sufficiently above the 100-week moving average to start to consider the bottom to be in.  

So for sure, one thing is having the bottom in and then another thing is resuming up...

How high, in your opinion, is the probability that Bitcoin's bottom for this part of the cycle is $25,401? Ap probability higher than 80%, do you believe?

Do you want to say that everyone should be waiting to stock up on bitcoin?  that would seem ridiculous to me., even though I do understand why it makes sense to keep some dry powder available.

They can buy this DIP right now, then DCA when it touches the 200-week SMA line, which could happen as early as July, or August.

Another thing is that if someone is just coming into bitcoin, then what do you want to tell them?  Wait before you buy?  

What I would tell them is never buy the top then DCA all the way down, how stupid to the already stupid me would I have looked if I told family/friends to not wait and buy from $60,000 and DCA the way down. That would be bad for their savings.

Plus a mere shower thought on Pooyah's posts. What if Bitcoin is truly correlated with legacy markets, and will be more correlated because macro-economics has always been what made markets, all markets move in either direction up or down?

[JayJuanGee]

What's currently happening to Bitcoin is the same bull/bear pattern. 2018 is 2022, 2019 is 2023, 2020 is 2024 - the year of the next halving.

There's always some risk if you get too tied up into making fractal comparisons, even if you might end up getting your prediction correct, you are likely going to get yourself into some kind of psychological or financial pickle (if you have not already) if you assign higher probabilities than they deserve to these kinds of patterns that you see (whether unique to your own shower visions or you are engaging in some kinds of kumbaya coordinations with some of your soulmates..   )

I accept that the future is unpredictable, I was merely pointing at that, based on past data, it's more probable that we'll see the same pattern continue, or may have already showed the same signs of what's about to happen by the next halving.

You find it laughable? S2F was also based on past data, and also modeled a pattern, although based on flawed assumptions.

The S2F model is not dead and neither are the ideas (and data) underlying it as a way of looking at bitcoin....

You can build it into your way of looking at bitcoin however you like, but poo-pooing it comes off as unnecessarily bad thinking... but hey, you do you.

Shower thought. We will see a surge, with every "influencer" posting that the "bottom is in", then slowly it goes back under $30,000 again, possibly continuing to the 200-week SMA line.

Well the 200 week moving average is at about $22k right now and it is going up around $15 to $20 per day.  

Surely it is possible that the BTC price could touch the 200-week moving average, but we also would like to get some idea regarding how much of a move up is necessary to be reasonable in terms of considering the local bottom to be in.. which is currently at about $25,401...

Our having had gone below the 100-week moving average in the past week (which is currently at $35k) has likely put us into a bear market framework, so in order to get out of a bear market framework, we likely need to get back above the 100-week moving average and also either to stay above it for a certain amount of time or perhaps to get sufficiently above the 100-week moving average to start to consider the bottom to be in.  

So for sure, one thing is having the bottom in and then another thing is resuming up...

How high, in your opinion, is the probability that Bitcoin's bottom for this part of the cycle is $25,401? Ap probability higher than 80%, do you believe?

Of course with any of these kinds of matters, there is a bit of a guessing (guestimating), but also a bit of a moving target dynamics, too, and for sure, I attempt to consider a kind of framework that would not cause me to have to change my thinking based on every little short-term price move (or happening) in the market... but surely some kinds of BTC price moves are more significant than others.

On December 6, 2021, I had created a post providing a framework for considering both upward price possibilities (of course from my own perspective) and also probabilities for the timeline for a price peak for this cycle (or what I considered this cycle at that time).  

I have not revised those numbers (probability assignments) or timeline considerations, yet... even though for sure the passage of time and what the bitcoin price has done since December 6th will inform various revisions.

Also, prior to May 11, I had NOT plotted out my thinking in regards to possible DOWNity scenarios - including that from my perspective downity scenarios would have been the minority perspective (at least no greater than 49%), so in that regard, less imminent in the need to consider or plot out such seemingly minority scenarios... but surely the breaching of the $35k (100-week moving average) support has justified the fleshing out DOWNity scenarios.... which I did on May 11th while we were in a DOWNity unstable push period..  even though it likely would have become more relevant before the 100-week moving average support ended up being breached.

Within the past hour or two, I just revised my May 11th numbers in that post, and in essence to attempt to answer your question, I tend to NOT assign very high probabilities to either short-term or getting passed (or breaking out of a range) prices that are within close proximity.

Since I have speculated that going below the 100-week moving average brought us into a bear market, I feel that logically, I have to assign greater than 50% odds of a break down rather than a break up - but surely I can cheat by attempting to use the current price as the starting point.  So, even in my today's revisions, you can add up all of the numbers higher than $25k in my chart and find that I end up assigning 71% odds that $25k will hold.

That is:
49% for UP
+
10% supra $27k
+
12% supra $25.4k
=
71% total

Upon reflection, the 71% assignment of not breaking below $25.4k seem like higher odds than I had anticipated that they would have been.. yet at this particular moment, I am not sure where or how I would currently adjust the assignment of probabilities to make me feel more better about each of the numbers?

How about you Wind_FURY?  Surely, you consider these matters differently from me, and you would tweak the current assignment of probabilities, and if so, how would your assignment of probabilities come out differently from mine?

Do you want to say that everyone should be waiting to stock up on bitcoin?  that would seem ridiculous to me., even though I do understand why it makes sense to keep some dry powder available.

They can buy this DIP right now, then DCA when it touches the 200-week SMA line, which could happen as early as July, or August.

Still sounds as if you are assigning pretty high odds that there is going to be a touching of the 200-week moving average.

You do also realize that the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up (so long as the BTC spot price stays above it)?

right now, with BTC prices right around $30k, we are about 27% above the 200-week moving average.

Of course, some folks might buy on the dip, as well.. including buying at various increments between this current price and where they anticipate the 200-week moving average to be by the time the spot price hits it.. that is if it hits it or if it even goes lower than the $25.4K-ish that it already hit.

Another thing is that if someone is just coming into bitcoin, then what do you want to tell them?  Wait before you buy?  

What I would tell them is never buy the top then DCA all the way down, how stupid to the already stupid me would I have looked if I told family/friends to not wait and buy from $60,000 and DCA the way down. That would be bad for their savings.

I don't tell anyone to do anything.  They have to decide for themselves.. hopefully based on their own circumstances that involves more than just how they view bitcoin as compared with other possible investments.. but they should be considering their whole package of matters that include their cashflow, other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, their view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, their time, skills and abilities to plan, strategize, learn and tweak along the way, including their consideration of the applicability of the use of trading, reallocating, leverage and/or other financial instruments.

But I always tell people to get the fuck started ASAP.. and figure out how much, if any, they want to put into bitcoin at various points, and if they cannot figure it out, then starting out with some kind of DCA tends to be a good place to start.. even if the starting out amount might be pretty damned small while they are figuring out the rest of their individual circumstances.

The more that you are getting involved with helping someone to help themselves would mean also getting involved in their circumstances, so surely someone who ONLY has cashflow is going to be in a different position than someone who either has a lump sum or a lump sum and cashflow.

So if someone has an extra $600 per month of cashflow that they could invest into bitcoin, and also they have $6k in a lump sum that they could invest, then they are going to have way more options than someone who only has a cashflow and even someone who might not even be able to allocate $600 per month into bitcoin and maybe they only have $60 per month that they would be able to allocate into bitcoin.. options will differ with differing levels and kinds of resources.

The dumb (or stupid) thing would be presuming that you actually know with any level of certainty which way the BTC price is going in the short-term when you likely do not know with any kind of level of certainty...

Plus a mere shower thought on Pooyah's posts. What if Bitcoin is truly correlated with legacy markets, and will be more correlated because macro-economics has always been what made markets, all markets move in either direction up or down?

Yeah.. of course, a lot of people have those kinds of thoughts, especially people who fail/refuse to recognize that bitcoin is not a stock.. so therefore, is not likely to perform like a stock in the longer term, even though it may well spend a decent amount of time correlated or seeming to be correlated for those wanting to selectively pick certain points in time..

So for example, there are folks who proclaim bitcoin to be correlated, but then they selectively choose to make various exceptions.... such as saying, oh just ignore that period between June-ish 2020 and April-ish 2021 when bitcoin did a 10x from $6k to supra $60k.. and did not really correct back down.. otherwise, let's look at the data, and try to describe them as otherwise correlated, so long as we remove certain portions of the data that do not fit our correlation narrative very well.

Sure.. go on wedding ur lil selfie to those correlation theories, and hopefully you do not get tricked into under preparing for UPpity, which does not always come when expected or in the expected quantities of magnitude.

[Wind_FURY]

That is:
49% for UP
+
10% supra $27k
+
12% supra $25.4k
=
71% total

Upon reflection, the 71% assignment of not breaking below $25.4k seem like higher odds than I had anticipated that they would have been.. yet at this particular moment, I am not sure where or how I would currently adjust the assignment of probabilities to make me feel more better about each of the numbers?

How about you Wind_FURY?  Surely, you consider these matters differently from me, and you would tweak the current assignment of probabilities, and if so, how would your assignment of probabilities come out differently from mine?

I'm probably more bearish than you for 2022, and 2023. Although yes, I'm biased because of the pattern we experienced in the past, BUT with the Fed's rate hikes and tightening of the balance sheet, I believe it might validate the bias.

Plus where will the inflows come from? Many plebs, and other ordinary investors like us have no more dry powder/will need to save. Institutional investors are having their own bear cycle in the legacy markets. In fact, some ordinary investors in cryptocurrencies might start selling to, pay for their expenses which are becoming more expensive because of inflation, or simply to sell and look for other investments.

Do you want to say that everyone should be waiting to stock up on bitcoin?  that would seem ridiculous to me., even though I do understand why it makes sense to keep some dry powder available.

They can buy this DIP right now, then DCA when it touches the 200-week SMA line, which could happen as early as July, or August.

Still sounds as if you are assigning pretty high odds that there is going to be a touching of the 200-week moving average.

You do also realize that the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up (so long as the BTC spot price stays above it)?

right now, with BTC prices right around $30k, we are about 27% above the 200-week moving average.

Of course, some folks might buy on the dip, as well.. including buying at various increments between this current price and where they anticipate the 200-week moving average to be by the time the spot price hits it.. that is if it hits it or if it even goes lower than the $25.4K-ish that it already hit.

I actually didn't assign high odds for it until I saw your post about 100-weekly SMA. I looked at the line, and I was not happy to see that if Bitcoin went under it, it took about only two months for price to touch the 200-weekly SMA line. It's better to expect it, and be ready, than deny it.

[JayJuanGee]

That is:
49% for UP
+
10% supra $27k
+
12% supra $25.4k
=
71% total

Upon reflection, the 71% assignment of not breaking below $25.4k seem like higher odds than I had anticipated that they would have been.. yet at this particular moment, I am not sure where or how I would currently adjust the assignment of probabilities to make me feel more better about each of the numbers?

How about you Wind_FURY?  Surely, you consider these matters differently from me, and you would tweak the current assignment of probabilities, and if so, how would your assignment of probabilities come out differently from mine?

I'm probably more bearish than you for 2022, and 2023. Although yes, I'm biased because of the pattern we experienced in the past, BUT with the Fed's rate hikes and tightening of the balance sheet, I believe it might validate the bias.

Yeah.. I already figured that you would reach more bearish calculations than me, and like I already mentioned, I was a bit surprised that my numbers did not come out more bearish than they did - yet I cannot figure out any way to really change the numbers in any kind of meaningful amount.. at least not at the moment.. sure I could tweak them a bit, but they are not too far off of the numbers that I had given. and attempting to do the best that I can based on attempting to put somewhat reasonable numbers approximating my sentiments.

Sure, there is some correlation with the Fed's action, but as you likely already know, I am not too much of an ascriber to bitcoin having to follow whatever dumb shit the fed is doing, not doing or announcing that it is doing.... bitcoin will go along with whatever various markets do, until it doesn't... so you don't want to be in the pickle of assigning more correlation to bitcoin than actually exists.

Plus where will the inflows come from? Many plebs, and other ordinary investors like us have no more dry powder/will need to save. Institutional investors are having their own bear cycle in the legacy markets. In fact, some ordinary investors in cryptocurrencies might start selling to, pay for their expenses which are becoming more expensive because of inflation, or simply to sell and look for other investments.

I doubt that we really need to know in advance in regards to all of the details because sometimes shit just happens to happen... and if you are just focused on talking yourself down, then you are focusing on one direction more than you should be, and sure of course, you are giving justification for why you are assigning more bearishness than I am.. but I cannot really see your explanations are really causing me to want to tip my numbers more than I already have accounted for those kinds of matters and given them the amount of weight that I believe they deserve in the whole context of matters.

Take April 2019 for example.  Sure, we had a downward plunge in BTC prices in November/December 2018 from $6k-ish to $3k-ish that caused a lot of people (including yours truly) to presume that we were going to get 9 months or longer of down and/or stagnant BTC prices, but over the next few months, we got little gravitation of BTC prices up to $4k, and by the end of March 2019, we were getting a wee bit above $4k, and by time April 1 came, we started to get movement from $4,200 up to $13,880 - which took a few months to play out, and the whole thing was surprising because many of us did not believe such a pump was in the cards.. and we end up getting 3.5x price appreciation in 3 months.

I am not even suggesting that anything close to April 2019 is in the current cards, but there can end up being some variation of that, including momentum that starts to bud. and pretty soon the momentum is building upon itself, and no one is really clear about from where such momentum is coming (because it had been previously unknown), even though the momentum is there and seeming to materialize out of nowhere.

Another thing is that sure the circumstances of late 2018 and now are not the same as the circumstances today, so some of the actual circumstances can end up cutting both ways in terms of what was the previous price appreciation (referring to 2017) and how did the drop end up playing out, and then also accounting for macro circumstances then as compared with macro circumstances now.. for sure macro-circumstances now are more dire, yet again, I am not so keen to be assigning high values to macro-circumstances.. which to me has fucked up a lot of people in the past when they are trying to correlate bitcoin with macro-factors and the stock market and blah blah blah.. and bitcoin ends up doing a kind of step up out of the blue and they naysayers end up wondering what the fuck happened to their short or their failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately prepare themselves for UP and then become bitter over the whole matter.. and more stubborn in their wedding their lil selfies to no coiner status.

There are other examples besides April 2019 - including March 2017.. so much doom and gloom in the air with BTC prices at around $1k (with a recent previous correction down to $850), and there were proclamations that the BIG players are not coming in until BTC prices correct down to below $500 (Vinny Lingham and others making these kinds of convincing claims)..and we ended up getting no correction, just a gravitation up to $2k to $3k through the next 4-5 months and then kind of getting stuck sub-$3k until the fork bullshit ended up resolving... but still a lot of negativism through the whole year of 2017, even while BTC prices continued to go up.. in spite of so many theories of top and need to go down and blah blah blah.  

So you can compare and contrast all that you like in terms of giving rationale to why you believe that down is more likely than up in terms of the level of certainty that you have, and sure you may end up being correct.. but I hope you are not putting too many eggs in that basket.. and hopefully you have not been preparing for UP during our current downity gravitations and current feelings of doom and gloom.. and sure even I am conceding a bear market until we get out of this crap... but I am not failing/refusing/delaying to adequately/sufficiently prepare for UP in the event that the bottom might be already in... even if it is a bit of a minority view, currently.

Do you want to say that everyone should be waiting to stock up on bitcoin?  that would seem ridiculous to me., even though I do understand why it makes sense to keep some dry powder available.

They can buy this DIP right now, then DCA when it touches the 200-week SMA line, which could happen as early as July, or August.

Still sounds as if you are assigning pretty high odds that there is going to be a touching of the 200-week moving average.

You do also realize that the 200-week moving average is continuing to move up (so long as the BTC spot price stays above it)?

right now, with BTC prices right around $30k, we are about 27% above the 200-week moving average.

Of course, some folks might buy on the dip, as well.. including buying at various increments between this current price and where they anticipate the 200-week moving average to be by the time the spot price hits it.. that is if it hits it or if it even goes lower than the $25.4K-ish that it already hit.

I actually didn't assign high odds for it until I saw your post about 100-weekly SMA. I looked at the line, and I was not happy to see that if Bitcoin went under it, it took about only two months for price to touch the 200-weekly SMA line. It's better to expect it, and be ready, than deny it.

I don't have any problem with making sure that you are prepared for down.. It's just a matter of how much prepared for down that you feel that you need to be and how much you might be holding off for lower prices without potentially taking any actions right now.

Sure each of us have differing situations, and even I had to change some of my preparations once the BTC price dropped below $35k and it did not seem to be a mere blip.

So if you might have remembered, I had buy orders that had been set at about $1k increments all the way down to about $20k.. and sure, I have been buying on the way down since around $60k with some kind of similar increments of $1k all the way down from $60k-ish to $30k-ish...

If you recall, once the BTC price went below $35k on May 7th, it had taken about two days (by May 9th) to get down from $35k to $30k, so all of my buy order that were in $1k increments were filled between $35k and down to $30k.. so then at that point.. maybe around the 10th of May or so, I began to reconsider both the increments between my buy orders and the amounts of each of my remaining BTC buy orders between $20k and $29k, and I ended up both cancelling those BTC buy orders and restructuring the incremental spread amounts to make the spreads larger - something in the ballpark of between $1.5k and $2.5k spread increments to allow me to account for possible sticking points that I perceived could exist at various price locations).  At the same time, I considered the overall amount of cash that I had already dedicated to those buy orders and other cash that I have, and I concluded that I should add a bit more cash to the overall amounts and therefore to all of the buy orders overall on the way down, and I also placed the buy orders down a wee bit further (bringing the buy order down from the lowest being at $20k-ish to having the lowest buy order at $19k-ish)...   

After I reset and adjusted those various buy orders on about the 10th of May, then in the next couple of days, the BTC price ended up dropping again and the BTC price went down to about $25,410 on the 12th, and I had two of my adjusted buy orders execute between May 10 and May 12th because of the BTC price drop during that period.

So part of my point is that I am attempting to describe adjustments that I had made that were meant to have been making attempts to both account for my own situation (my views and my finances and my psychology) and to account for what I had considered that the overall BTC price dynamics to have had transitioned into a bit more bearish circumstances, but still without putting all of my eggs into any kind of expectation that BTC prices have to reach any kind of further DOWNity threshold before they are able to go up.  So in that regard, there should be ways that any of us should be able to attempt to create psychological and financial preparations for the BTC price to go in either direction without overly-weighing in one direction or another (or engaging in too much gambling) but still attempting to create some level of financial and psychological comfort to be able to accept whichever direction the BTC price might end up going and to account for both our assignment of probabilities to the situation (including any reassessment that should not necessarily cause too many dramatic of changes) and to prepare for possible extremes that could end up happening in either price direction as well.. and to account for timeline considerations in which the various scenarios could end up playing out, too.  

Another thing that you already mentioned Wind_FURY is that it could take several months and you are even suggesting a year or longer (which seems like way too out of touch from my perspective... but whatever) for the bottom for this particular overall correction wave to play out, and surely there are ways to still account for the possibility of the passage of time both in terms of accounting for the 200-week moving average (which is currently at $21,951) still continues to move up at nearly $30 per day.. which causes it to become less and less likely that BTC prices will either go below it or stay below it for any kind of meaningful time, if they were to go below it. 

While at the same time, never say never, even though historically we have not had too many breaches of the BTC price below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time.... even for more than a couple weeks, at most... that's BTC price history.. but still not guaranteed, even though it seems reasonable and prudent to consider those kinds of possible extremes and whether there might be plausible scenarios in which those kinds of extremes might end up getting breached this time around.

Even given my own desires to attempt to prepare for extremes that could happen, I still find it a bit problematic that so many people (or would they be called BTC price pundits?) consider that BTC prices have to go down to the 200-week moving average merely because we have gone below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $35,500)... yeah, odds have become decently higher than they had been previously that BTC prices will go down to touch the 200-week moving average, and personally, I doubt that the odds of the BTC price going down to touch the 200-week moving average have become greater than 50/50, so it seems a bit absurd to proclaim that we have to go down to the 200-week moving average merely because maybe the odds had gone up from 25% to 40% or some other more reasonable approximation of what the odds are rather than what they are wished to be.

[Wind_FURY]

While at the same time, never say never, even though historically we have not had too many breaches of the BTC price below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time.... even for more than a couple weeks, at most... that's BTC price history.. but still not guaranteed, even though it seems reasonable and prudent to consider those kinds of possible extremes and whether there might be plausible scenarios in which those kinds of extremes might end up getting breached this time around.

No it didn't, but there's always the possbility that it can touch it ever so slightly, which could give plebs like me a golden opportunity for another good entry. Bitcoin might be in a phase of "$29,000 is the new $6,000 of 2018". Plus there's a time for FOMO, there's a time for finding good entries. It's very obvious that it's a time to find good entries. It might not matter for whales with unlimited capital like you, but for poor plebs like me it does.

[JayJuanGee]

While at the same time, never say never, even though historically we have not had too many breaches of the BTC price below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time.... even for more than a couple weeks, at most... that's BTC price history.. but still not guaranteed, even though it seems reasonable and prudent to consider those kinds of possible extremes and whether there might be plausible scenarios in which those kinds of extremes might end up getting breached this time around.

No it didn't, but there's always the possbility that it can touch it ever so slightly, which could give plebs like me a golden opportunity for another good entry. Bitcoin might be in a phase of "$29,000 is the new $6,000 of 2018". Plus there's a time for FOMO, there's a time for finding good entries. It's very obvious that it's a time to find good entries. It might not matter for whales with unlimited capital like you, but for poor plebs like me it does.

I know that we touched on this topic previously - but I believe that it bears repetition.

1) referring to me as a whale comes off a bit strange.

Since I have been into bitcoin since 2013, I have been trying to set up ways to protect my portfolio since about late 2015... so I established a system to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and so the amount of sales had always meant to be small amounts so that they were largely just providing downside insurance and not really attempting to accomplish much more than that.  Initially I had likely allowed myself to sell a bit more than 1% of my holdings for every 10% the BTC price rose, but later, the percentage of the amount sold would end up being closer to 0.5% for every 10% rise.  I am not even going to proclaim that I had not made quite a few mistakes in the visions of the strategy and even the employment of the strategy, but in some sense there had been allowances to be able to build values and to stack on both ends in such a way that on the way up, you never run out of BTC and on the way down you never run out of fiat.

Through practice, there are ways to figure out to make spreads larger and even NOT to buy back so much in order to better and better prepare for worse case scenarios and therefore never to run out of fiat to buy back.

If I only have $1,000 to spread out over 20 orders, then I am only going to be able to buy back $50 for each of the orders.  So merely having a lot of buy back orders does not automatically mean that the amounts add up to a lot of money.. and I never proclaimed what the amounts of my buy backs were - except that I was attempting to be strategic about making sure that I maintain them

2) There is no unlimited capital from someone like me, even if you might have the sense that I have unlimited capital because I maintain buy orders down as far as I do.  It seems that it has taken me years to be able to get to the point to be able to establish maintaining orders and without running out of money.  However, if the BTC price crashes 50% from here (which would be nearly down to $14k), then based on my current set up, I run out of money at $19k don't I?  That's far from unlimited.

3) Even if you refer to yourself as a poor pleb, the question likely is merely about management of what funds that you have... so yeah, if you believe that you have less, so instead of having $1k, you only have $100, then you either might have to make smaller buy orders or to spread them out more.  I recall some exchanges have lower limits too..   I also recall when I started out trading, and the BTC price was $250, and I would sell a few dollars worth and then buy back a few dollars, one of my friends would laugh and laugh and laugh at me, because I said that I made $.06 on the trade, and I think that part of my point is both working with what you have and also setting up a structure that you likely get bigger and bigger, but you cannot necessarily rush getting BIGGER before you are ready...so you work with what you got.. and try to follow a system that makes sense and is profitable (and you have to account for fees too in terms of both figuring out if you are in profits, and if the whole matter was worth it).  It feels good to be able to set up a whole structure all the way down, even if the amounts are small.. so it could be the case that if we end up getting into the lower $20ks, then I might decide to take an additional $100 or $1k out of my bank, and spread my buy orders down to $10k, so the mere fact that I would then have buy orders going all the way down to $10k does not mean that I have unlimited resources or that I am a whale, but merely that I have budgeted my set up in such a way in order to be able to maintain buy orders down as far as I believe is possible for the BTC price to go.. even in the most extreme of circumstances.