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Author Topic: Bitfinex massive spread  (Read 618 times)
Wind_FURY
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May 01, 2019, 11:18:56 AM
 #41

I feel that we will soon undergo a memorable correction in Bitcoin's history. I'm already preparing for it, I'm just hoping that the whole cryptocurrency market will be able to recover. Otherwise, I don't know what it will become for the future. No matter all the "great news" that comes after, it will be too late, damages are done.


Plus the market is currently over-leveraged with margin longs made by the plebs. The market is now in the hands, and at the mercy of the whalecumulators.

but these "whalecumulators" can't keep up accumulating indefinitely! at some point they run out of money and would want to let the price go back up, not to mention that you can't really manipulate the market forever. the market retaliates against you. and that is why the recent rises occurred anyways.
so at this point i would say most of them are leaning towards a rise. there are always some who resist but they would be going against the market.


But what the whalecumulators love doing is market manipulation. They don't "accumulate indefinitely". They love crashing the market on the plebs, and take more of their money, so that there will be more for them to buy Bitcoin, and less for the plebs.

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May 01, 2019, 01:59:25 PM
 #42

What happened 8/2/17, when Bitfinex cold wallet went from 111k bitcoin to .5 bitcoin, then a day later went back to 111k bitcoin?!
Their trading volumes went down because whales left that exchange. Currently there is less than 90k BTC left in their main cold wallet, and this for such a 'large' exchange is very alarming.

The premium there indicates that there is a lot demand to sell USDT for BTC and withdraw directly after. It wouldn't surprise me if we see another 10-20k BTC being withdrawn from their main cold wallet this week.

Anyone still using that exchange is a retard--you're basically begging them to pull off a scam on you. The only thing this exchange should do is disappear from this ecosystem. Today rather than tomorrow.

It's not the first time we've seen an exchange do these things, and god knows it won't be the last. A normal public registered company in a developing country wouldn't get away with this type of hanky panky, but it's amazing what exchanges can and do get away with, over and over.

Whoever thought of printing "crypto" was brilliant. People bought into it and will buy into it tomorrow and thereafter, until the time it all collapses around them. There will be plenty of tears, but I guess telling them so isn't going to change the end of this story.

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May 02, 2019, 07:44:42 AM
 #43

The situation seems to be getting more puzzling for Bitfinex, basically we just hit a new yearly high of $5730 and it was someone who did a margin long because the margin longs went up by ~650 BTC while shorts went up by ~250 BTC.

So it begs the question, why in the world would you open a margin long on Bitfinex which is +$350 above the rest of the markets? I think what might happen is there might be a massive short squeeze. The exchange is losing BTC because people out of fear are withdrawing their BTC. The funding rate is higher and it shows that.

I think its some whale that are going to stage this long squeeze and it won't be pretty to those who opened a short last month, since they are already sitting at a massive loss.

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May 02, 2019, 07:53:52 AM
 #44

Well, well, well, look at this https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/ustusd

Tether back above $1. I feel like the recent drama is just fud. I'm sure a real whale exit would cause more harm than this.

well there's two different things happening. tether (USDT) is still trading across the market at 1.00 USD. in fact, it was trading even higher than that for a couple days.

however, a persistent disparity between bitfinex and the rest of the market is ongoing. at this moment, coinbase is trading at $5344 and bitstamp is at $5335. bitfinex on the other hand is trading at $5692. that's a 6.69% spread. like the OP said, that's pretty massive and kinda worrisome.

tbh i can't really explain why USDT is still worth $1 but bitfinex bucks are worth significantly less. what's the deal with that?

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May 02, 2019, 08:04:11 AM
 #45

Well, well, well, look at this https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitfinex/ustusd

Tether back above $1. I feel like the recent drama is just fud. I'm sure a real whale exit would cause more harm than this.

well there's two different things happening. tether (USDT) is still trading across the market at 1.00 USD. in fact, it was trading even higher than that for a couple days.

however, a persistent disparity between bitfinex and the rest of the market is ongoing. at this moment, coinbase is trading at $5344 and bitstamp is at $5335. bitfinex on the other hand is trading at $5692. that's a 6.69% spread. like the OP said, that's pretty massive and kinda worrisome.

tbh i can't really explain why USDT is still worth $1 but bitfinex bucks are worth significantly less. what's the deal with that?

This is something I don't understand either. Its common sense for the Bitfinex bucks to be worth less than real USD since people are panicking and buying overpriced BTC just to be able to perform a withdraw. In the same way that people were buying overpriced BTC on MtGox right before it collpased because fiat withdraws werent possible, only BTC withdraws were allowed.

However since Tether is also the same company, that stablecoin should also be priced under 6% of the real market value of a USD fiat. The situation is very fishy indeed. And also I don't understand why there are margin longs being opened up on Bitfinex when you could do a margin long at a much cheaper price.

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May 02, 2019, 08:39:02 AM
 #46

Tether literally told that 74% of all their token is backed by "either cash or cash equivalence things" so literally not even %74 backed by cash let alone 1 to 1 ratio they used to promise. Now we don't even know what these things that equal cash are and even if we knew we still don't know how much of that 74% is that and how much of it is really cash. So, would you risk your money on something that is 26%+ not backed by the thing they said it was backed by ?

I doubt that and that is why I honestly believe that the spread happened, people really do not care about tether anymore and they will not risky their money for tether anymore. That resulted with everyone getting away and of course there was a spread when it was done and nobody even tried arbitrage because it was way too risky.

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May 02, 2019, 08:23:37 PM
 #47

Tether literally told that 74% of all their token is backed by "either cash or cash equivalence things" so literally not even %74 backed by cash let alone 1 to 1 ratio they used to promise. Now we don't even know what these things that equal cash are and even if we knew we still don't know how much of that 74% is that and how much of it is really cash. So, would you risk your money on something that is 26%+ not backed by the thing they said it was backed by ?

I doubt that and that is why I honestly believe that the spread happened, people really do not care about tether anymore and they will not risky their money for tether anymore. That resulted with everyone getting away and of course there was a spread when it was done and nobody even tried arbitrage because it was way too risky.
To be honest I am surprised that things are not even worse for tether and bitfinex, this is the kind of scandal that makes people lose a huge amount of confidence, maybe the news is still too recent and the market is still not reflecting the reality of the situation, but if the accusations are true then it is possible we are going to see during the next months and years the disappearance of tether as a stable coin and of bitfinex as an exchange.

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May 06, 2019, 09:32:23 AM
 #48

Shower thought. What if it's Bitfinex that's driving "Bitcoin up" because of its users are buying "Bitcoin up" to get their money out of the exchange. Hahaha. Cool

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May 06, 2019, 07:31:34 PM
 #49

Shower thought. What if it's Bitfinex that's driving "Bitcoin up" because of its users are buying "Bitcoin up" to get their money out of the exchange. Hahaha. Cool

it wouldn't be the first time. remember what happened after march/april 2017 when bitfinex and tether lost their banking capabilities? you know, the whole wells fargo debacle. just check the charts. Smiley

i remember feeling at the time that it was so unsustainable because it was bitfinex/tether customers desperately exiting to crypto that was triggering the rally. you could see it in the charts of other exchanges like bitstamp too---some bitfinex users were only buying to immediately dump on other exchanges. so the bitfinex price had a huge premium over the market like we're seeing now.

but inevitably all the other exchanges ended up begrudgingly following bitfinex upwards as well......

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May 07, 2019, 05:28:17 AM
 #50

Shower thought. What if it's Bitfinex that's driving "Bitcoin up" because of its users are buying "Bitcoin up" to get their money out of the exchange. Hahaha. Cool

it wouldn't be the first time. remember what happened after march/april 2017 when bitfinex and tether lost their banking capabilities? you know, the whole wells fargo debacle. just check the charts. Smiley

i remember feeling at the time that it was so unsustainable because it was bitfinex/tether customers desperately exiting to crypto that was triggering the rally. you could see it in the charts of other exchanges like bitstamp too---some bitfinex users were only buying to immediately dump on other exchanges. so the bitfinex price had a huge premium over the market like we're seeing now.

but inevitably all the other exchanges ended up begrudgingly following bitfinex upwards as well......

I feel the same about this rally. Maybe it's unsustainable because the market is over-leveraged, and Bitfinex's users buying "Bitcoin up" should end in any moment now.

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.....I AM BLACKJACK.FUN.....
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1Referee
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May 07, 2019, 10:00:09 PM
 #51

Ouch. Bitfinex's cold wallet has seen more outflow today. 12,511BTC has left their cold wallet making their coin holdings reach the lowest point in almost two years!!

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

This definitely explains why their premium isn't shrinking. People are withdrawing like there is no tomorrow. If this continues, they'll run out of Bitcoin, and who knows what Bitfinex will pull off then.  Lips sealed
Wind_FURY
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May 08, 2019, 07:50:10 AM
 #52

Ouch. Bitfinex's cold wallet has seen more outflow today. 12,511BTC has left their cold wallet making their coin holdings reach the lowest point in almost two years!!

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3D2oetdNuZUqQHPJmcMDDHYoqkyNVsFk9r

This definitely explains why their premium isn't shrinking. People are withdrawing like there is no tomorrow. If this continues, they'll run out of Bitcoin, and who knows what Bitfinex will pull off then.  Lips sealed

Thanks for the link, we should keep an eye on it. I believe when everyone who wants to withdraw has withdrawn, the rally might stop. It's now clear that what's driving it are the Bitfinex whales that are buying Bitcoin up to withdraw.

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.....I AM BLACKJACK.FUN.....
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wuvdoll
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May 09, 2019, 07:03:50 AM
 #53

I am afraid as it seems that bitfinex is just trying to get an exit as soon as possible either in a legit way or if they have to in a bad way. Look at how they are running right now, they used to be big and they had expenses and now they are seen as a criminal exchange and nobody really likes them and they had issues with tether deal as well which made it very difficult for them to keep running the company since everyone traded their tether and just got bitcoin and withdrew that from the exchange which made their reserves very low on bitcoin (and high on tether which they can't use in anything).

All they can do right now is to personally deposit a lot of tether in other exchanges and than get bitcoin for it and keep running the company for a while but I bet they would love to sell the whole exchange for something decent and get out of this mess.
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May 09, 2019, 07:12:58 AM
 #54

I am afraid as it seems that bitfinex is just trying to get an exit as soon as possible either in a legit way or if they have to in a bad way. Look at how they are running right now, they used to be big and they had expenses and now they are seen as a criminal exchange and nobody really likes them and they had issues with tether deal as well

they've always been seen as a criminal exchange, or at least on the BTC-E end of the spectrum. their CFO giancarlo devasini said as much years ago. they hide in shady jurisdictions and as giancarlo put it "bank like criminals". that's one of the reasons people like them. they can trade with no KYC and little risk of account suspension/investigation, and whales are generally free to spoof/manipulate the order book.

something tells me this will all blow over because somehow bitfinex always emerges unscathed. one day, they (and tether as well) will have a brutal comeuppance.

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May 09, 2019, 08:15:58 AM
 #55

@wuvdoll
This exchange has always been quite controversial with a bad reputation.
What I see is that traders don't give a shit about Bitfinex. No impact on the Bitcoin price. Oh, yeah, for an hour it crashed a little bit, excuse me.
I think we can currently stop to be worried about the 'Bitfinex Papers', the real problems will come with the justice decision/action.

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May 11, 2019, 06:33:03 AM
 #56

Thanks for the link, we should keep an eye on it. I believe when everyone who wants to withdraw has withdrawn, the rally might stop. It's now clear that what's driving it are the Bitfinex whales that are buying Bitcoin up to withdraw.

here's an interesting twist. just like 2017, what began as an exodus from bitfinex is snowballing into a legit rally.

not only have the other exchanges caught up to bitfinex, but stamp and coinbase are now $60-70 above bitfinex now! it's amazing how much cash was sitting on the sidelines on non-margin exchanges just waiting to pile into the market.

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May 13, 2019, 11:38:22 AM
 #57

Recently, the tension around Bitfinex has grown and it seems that due to a deeper investigation by law enforcement, users began to buy Bitcoin and transfer it to other exchanges. I would not be surprised that the Bitfinex team artificially creates such a large spread and is engaged in arbitration in order to partially compensate for its losses.
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