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Author Topic: I thought btc would go down 5% today.... (but it went up 4%?)  (Read 738 times)
exstasie
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August 02, 2019, 11:51:01 PM
 #41

I'm not sure if there are massive stops below $9000 because we were very close, and if the stops where located there, it would have tempted market movers to trigger them with how thin the order books were/are.

We never undercut the July 17th low, so regarding stops, we just don't know. Makers and whales don't all always agree either. There was a whale fighting very hard to prop the market up above those lows, market buying into every dump. That seemed to discourage sellers.

If the market goes back to $9K there will definitely be massive stops located there by now. No such thing as a triple bottom!

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August 02, 2019, 11:59:22 PM
Last edit: August 03, 2019, 12:14:13 AM by STT
 #42

The price is roughly revolving around the 50 day average at present, if we look at previous behaviour its tended to match rough momentum in the price.



Was previously a very fast trend, now it could show us as being capped in our aspirations for the moment at least.   50MA is moving upwards quite strongly still, its hardly a negative so far; more of a brake possibly.


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August 03, 2019, 06:40:54 AM
 #43

Don't forget that with investing in Bitcoin you always take certain risk that you need to be prepared on and you can't fully predict how the price will behave.
It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.

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August 03, 2019, 09:50:05 PM
 #44

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.
With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

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August 03, 2019, 11:01:46 PM
 #45

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.
With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

Basic mass logic; everything that pumps will pump higher and everything that dumps will dump lower.

It would help if people for once paid attention to what actually happens on a technical level, but nope, they just have their 15-30 minute charts open and look at the red and green candles. Green candles mean it's a fantastic day while red candles mean that big bad whales are manipulating the market to buy lower.

I lost count on how many people have blamed whales for pushing the price down ever since we marked the yearly high.
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August 03, 2019, 11:46:31 PM
 #46

The mythical whales, if the market is dictated so easily then its not going to last anyhow folks.   Markets serve the people to decide a price, thats definitely going to vary over a weekend vs the week days I reckon and all sorts of other factors.   

15 or 30 min bars wont say much just noise short term.   The lowest time frame for any reasonable conclusion I would say is 4hr or 1 hour if you cant wait for the 4 to close I guess is ok so long as you check back if the 4hr bar closed up or down.
  Right this moment I'm waiting for UTC time to confirm the 1 day bar as above the 50 day average price or not.   Seems like it will close above 50 day which is bullish action but MA is just momentum indicator to flag strength I think. 

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August 04, 2019, 04:58:40 AM
 #47

It's the good thing that price is rising now but after it went down under 10000$-recently many expected it would fall further and nade totaly different strategy. Be always prepared on possible surprise.
With the spikes last month it was waiting for a correction before we pushed over the 10 again and are going to testing 11k currently. What made you expecting it would drop further ?

the problem is that most of the things we read online are not what people really expect to happen. what we read is mostly what they wish to happen specially things they post in social media. for example there are a lot of day traders who place a buy order at for example $9500 when price is $9800 and then come online and "predict" price to fall down to $7000 because they want their $9500 buy order to be filled.

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August 04, 2019, 06:59:08 AM
 #48

the problem is that most of the things we read online are not what people really expect to happen. what we read is mostly what they wish to happen specially things they post in social media. for example there are a lot of day traders who place a buy order at for example $9500 when price is $9800 and then come online and "predict" price to fall down to $7000 because they want their $9500 buy order to be filled.

what gives you the impression people are doing that? do you think that kind of "manipulation" has an effect?

most analysts/traders are just wrong most of the time. if they were calling $7k, it's more likely they were just affected by recency bias. so in a downtrend, they just expect lower and lower and lower. shorting the bottom, etc. IMO, most price predictions are what people actually expect. this is for 2 reasons:

1. ego. nobody likes posting predictions and getting it wrong. in fact, sometimes it feels more important to be correct than to make money. Cheesy
2. a lot of analysts on social media are trying to sell signal services. they need correct predictions, not blatantly wrong ones.

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August 04, 2019, 09:50:30 AM
 #49

The biggest direction changes are when public consensus is in agreement.   The various traders predicting all different targets are not that consensus, they are all seperate and the effect of their calls is not the united effort required to really move a price.
    Stuff like the Facebook Libra coin I can believe does have an effect, simple reasons why would be:

  • Immediate story, not complex and everyone 'understands' simultaneously
  • Common conclusions, many believe Libra coin is related to crypto somehow
  • Participants all facing the same direction, hence we have a push from many believing its a bullish event and speculate as such

I dont even think Libra is crypto, its slightly different to Paypal and thats it.   More details required but so far I dont see why its important directly.   However since its speculation the facts dont matter that much at the moment, the story has given many similar motivation to which creates a wave in the market which acts like self confirmation so now it must be true!
    In this case its bullish, later if Libra is not really a positive then we get a retraction in that speculation I think and some weakness but it wont be as singular but distributed over time before and after Libra releases.  Buy the rumour sell the news

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