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Author Topic: Godmode Technical Analysis  (Read 6486 times)
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exstasie
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October 17, 2019, 09:25:11 PM
 #341

We are currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. Phase D has two major events. #1 - Is the "Sign of Strength" (SOS) pushing us substantially above Preliminary Support to establish a new higher trading range. #2 - is the "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS); which is basically re-accumulation within that new higher established trading range.  Once our "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) is completed; this will end Phase D and we transition into Phase E.  However, We are not "officially" in Phase e until we breakout ABOVE $13,880 on Bitstamp.

How likely is it that the December-June rally was a bull trap and that we are still in a prolonged Phase A? That would be a painful scenario for bulls.

Even if we do fall lower into the $6k's, this does not mean we are going to continue into a prolonged bear market.  It simply means our BU/LPS dropped lower before our transition into Phase E in my opinion.

Let's say hypothetically that we are in a prolonged bear market, headed to new lows. How low would we need to go to confirm we are not in Phase D? All the way down to $3,122?

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October 17, 2019, 09:32:34 PM
Last edit: October 17, 2019, 09:55:36 PM by dmwardjr
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #342

Hi Exstasie,

Good to see you!  Wink

We are currently in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. Phase D has two major events. #1 - Is the "Sign of Strength" (SOS) pushing us substantially above Preliminary Support to establish a new higher trading range. #2 - is the "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS); which is basically re-accumulation within that new higher established trading range.  Once our "Back Up/Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) is completed; this will end Phase D and we transition into Phase E.  However, We are not "officially" in Phase e until we breakout ABOVE $13,880 on Bitstamp.

How likely is it that the December-June rally was a bull trap and that we are still in a prolonged Phase A? That would be a painful scenario for bulls.

I honestly do not see that being the case.  The "time" structure and "price" structure just do not line up with that scenario.

Even if we do fall lower into the $6k's, this does not mean we are going to continue into a prolonged bear market.  It simply means our BU/LPS dropped lower before our transition into Phase E in my opinion.

Let's say hypothetically that we are in a prolonged bear market, headed to new lows. How low would we need to go to confirm we are not in Phase D? All the way down to $3,122?

Correct, we would have to fall below $3,122 on Bitstamp.  This would basically mean Phase D was rejected and we would be in a phase C of a Distribution Schematic.  However, this scenario and structure would be totally out of line with any Wyckoff Schematic I have seen.  Especially, for crypto...

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October 18, 2019, 11:18:38 AM
 #343

The White Energy continues with its downward pressure in the 3-Day TF.  Which see...



If we do end up coming down in a similar way as in December, 2018 on the last leg down before reversal, we could end up falling to a SECONDARY 0.382 FIB RT at $7,134.22.


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October 18, 2019, 11:41:31 AM
 #344

Pointing out a few more similarities within the indicators with yellow circles in the 3-Day TF with December, 2018 to present day.


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October 18, 2019, 01:41:42 PM
 #345

"Personal Test: Possible Future Price Action Scenarios."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KNCBTC/lurrwXiz-Personal-Test-Possible-Future-Price-Action-Scenarios/


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October 18, 2019, 08:17:19 PM
 #346


Based on the magnitude of the drop below the November 2018 lows (a bit under 10%), a $7K test or a hair below looks just about perfect.

Now the question is, is the December 2018 bottom the best model for the current price action? Smiley

Seeing some of the brutal wicks I've seen in Bitcoin, I'm not even ruling out a V-bottom off your 1.618 level in the low-mid $5,000s. That lines up with the 0.786 of the whole uptrend. I know xxxx123abcxxxx is looking at that area if the $7K area fails. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52783442#msg52783442

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October 19, 2019, 12:34:46 AM
 #347


Based on the magnitude of the drop below the November 2018 lows (a bit under 10%), a $7K test or a hair below looks just about perfect.

Now the question is, is the December 2018 bottom the best model for the current price action? Smiley

Seeing some of the brutal wicks I've seen in Bitcoin, I'm not even ruling out a V-bottom off your 1.618 level in the low-mid $5,000s. That lines up with the 0.786 of the whole uptrend. I know xxxx123abcxxxx is looking at that area if the $7K area fails. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5128394.msg52783442#msg52783442

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's.  That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

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October 19, 2019, 12:18:00 PM
 #348

This is simply a look at my PRIMARY FIB's for you to see the significance the 0.786 PRIMARY FIB has played in history on BitStamp and where we are today in regard to the PRIMARY 0.786 FIB.



Here's an example of what I mean by a "Secondary" FIB if you see me mention it in the future.  It's simply another FIB with coordinates placed between two Primary FIB levels.


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October 19, 2019, 02:14:47 PM
Last edit: October 19, 2019, 04:13:44 PM by dmwardjr
 #349

The following is an example of HOW I use Fibonacci to determine the "next" potential price range target before consolidating into a higher trading range in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.  NOTE:  This example ASSUMES the current bottom of $7,714.70 remains the same.  In case you are wondering, I went into the FIB "Settings" and "un-checked" every FIB level EXCEPT the 0.0, 0.618, 1.0 and 1.618. All other FIB levels were "hidden."


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October 19, 2019, 04:14:47 PM
 #350

Here's an example of my Fibonacci technique in which it still worked out EVENTUALLY but we do have occurrences like this in 2016 on occasions:


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October 19, 2019, 04:15:48 PM
 #351

This is an example to show you ON OCCASIONS we have an event in which the price action goes up too hard too quickly; resulting in a wick that goes up and back down to quickly to establish a clear and concise resistance level. However, the price action will eventually come back up to define that concise resistance level most of the time by going up in a more controlled/healthy behavior rather than flying up in a too quickly in an unhealthy manner. Once the price action moved up toward resistance in a more healthy manner, it REMAINED at that resistance level for quite a while to DEFINE that resistance level before consolidating once again. This is normal behavior... I simply wanted to point out that this type of price action behavior occurs at times and we need to be aware of this in order to know where to place our 0.618 FIB (at defined resistance) in order to find our future 1.618 extension.


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October 19, 2019, 04:18:59 PM
 #352

Yes, I use Fibonacci in an "unorthodox" way. HOWEVER, it works for me...  Also, it's important to note that every pair has its own personality in regard to Fibonacci. One has to do their research on each pair to find a pattern (personality) of each pair. 

There WILL come a time (at least in crypto) in which your pair will go "parabolic." You still use the same technique in a "bull" market. However, it's during "parabolic" times in which your 2.618 and even the 3.618 extension will be required in conjunction with "sound" indicators to get an idea of which FIB extension is likely next in line before consolidation.  Here is a quick PRIME EXAMPLE of the 3.618 FIB Extension being reached WHEN the market has entered a PARABOLIC phase before reaching a "Buying Climax" in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.


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October 19, 2019, 11:17:08 PM
 #353

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's.  That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

Here's the thing that bothers me. Many of Bitcoin's long term bottoms had deep high volume selloffs before reversal. "V bottoms" would be one way to describe them.

I think that would call for going much deeper than the $7100s. Don't you?

 
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October 20, 2019, 12:54:01 AM
 #354

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's.  That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

Here's the thing that bothers me. Many of Bitcoin's long term bottoms had deep high volume selloffs before reversal. "V bottoms" would be one way to describe them.

I think that would call for going much deeper than the $7100s. Don't you?

I posted this 8 hours ago on TradingView:  But yes, I can see your point.  Which is why I made it more similar to December, 2018/January, 2019 in the chart below in an update 8 hours ago.

"I mentioned possible 'Scenarios" (plural) for this publication. The next scenario is the Primary 0.786 FIB maintaining support without a significant dip below it. Which would result in a bit more sideways price action within a tight trading range during this period of downward pressure revealed inside the indicators in the 3-Day TF in a chart above. If that were to occur (The 0.786 Primary FIB holding), the scenario marked in Green could occur."


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October 21, 2019, 02:47:55 AM
Merited by exstasie (1), El duderino_ (1)
 #355

New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

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October 21, 2019, 07:09:41 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), dmwardjr (1)
 #356

New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

Could be. Naturally I'm a bit biased to the downside (still hoping to get lower bids filled Tongue). Experience has taught me patience often pays regarding waiting for shakeouts.

I'm not sure how much longer I'll keep waiting though. The daily and weekly are indeed showing resilience. This bounce looks like one of those times where classical technicians scream "shorting opportunity!" Then they get egg all over their face. Let's see how things look in a few days.

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October 21, 2019, 10:22:03 PM
 #357

New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

Could be. Naturally I'm a bit biased to the downside (still hoping to get lower bids filled Tongue). Experience has taught me patience often pays regarding waiting for shakeouts.

I'm not sure how much longer I'll keep waiting though. The daily and weekly are indeed showing resilience. This bounce looks like one of those times where classical technicians scream "shorting opportunity!" Then they get egg all over their face. Let's see how things look in a few days.

Could not have said it any better myself.  Well put...

By the way, NEW VIDEO posted 11 hours ago; titled, "Falling? Nope! ... Ballin? Yup! ... More Time Frames..."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TWWdPgXU-Falling-Nope-Ballin-Yup-More-Time-Frames/

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October 22, 2019, 02:21:55 AM
 #358

6h (Left) and 12h (Right)...  The Yellow "Basis" of the Bollinger Band in the 6h TF was at $8,056.33 at this writing.  It MIGHT make it down to it before bouncing back up.  However, it's also possible this acts more like a TIME correction than a PRICE correction in the 6h TF.


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October 22, 2019, 06:01:23 PM
Last edit: October 22, 2019, 06:19:10 PM by dmwardjr
 #359

Providing this to show the potential for a similar move to what's circled in Yellow with remarks in Yellow Text Bubble.  The reason this could be very possible present day is because we will be coming up to test ATH (All Time High) in a similar way we tested the 2013 ATH in January of 2017.  One major difference is the current price action will be only a few months before a block halving.  January, 2017 was NOT before a bitcoin block halving.



A look at the Red RSI and White Energy in Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA:


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October 23, 2019, 07:08:50 AM
 #360

BTCUSD - NEW CHART publication; titled, "Indicators Look More Like Dec. 2018 Than Jul. 2013 in 5-Day TF."  Be sure to checkout comments section:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HO7DIizs-Indicators-Look-More-Like-Dec-2018-Than-Jul-2013-in-5-Day-TF/

A look at ALL indicators in the 5-Day TF:



A look at ONLY the Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA indicator in the 5-Day TF:


Follow me on Trading View for excellent signals in Bitcoin/US dollar - Bitstamp - https://www.tradingview.com/u/WyckoffMode/.  Will be on a paid subscription website soon with trading signals and technical education using Wyckoff Method in conjunction with Godmode and Stochastic RSI indicators for many more crypto currency pairs besides BTCUSD.
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