What will be the next bubble's hook?

[2chase]

I believe that the era of the ICO has come to an end. In the form in which it was before - now it is impossible to continue. Now we are all testing the next wave of promotion of projects in the IEO format, but I think this innovation will soon come to an end and something else will take its place. Some other kind and different format of project promotion.

[1715194228]

1715194228

[WinslowIII]

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

ICO's were one among the many reasons for the newbie investors to jump in the bubble right back in 2017. There was huge FOMO situation prevailing all over the market and in the minds of the newbies. The problem is that, they are not accumulating over a longer time period but rather are trying to accumulate when the prices are too high. The minds of the investors were always the key factor in driving the price to the top when there are really no good news favoring the adoption of btc even more. Long-term investors will never invest huge sum in a period of FOMO but rather wait for the prices to settle a bit.

Right now, an average newbie investor who left the market last year would come back and will start investing in btc considering this would be a period of FOMO. This should probably be the main factor which will capture "the imagination of the average lemming" as you have mentioned.

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking?

The fact is that, most of the investors are fed up with the ICO scams and runaways which took place last year. This situation would never allow new investors/old investors to invest in ICOs. Many lost $1000 in crypto scams and those un-interesting ERC20 ICOs which wouldn't serve real purpose at all.

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

[gentlemand]

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

The only ongoing real world ish use case are the various stablecoins that run on it. I don't know how well they run on it, or what's in it for ETH's value.

If there is to be a bubble I'm really interested to see what alts do. Soon enough stuff like LTC will be a decade old and still have virtually nothing to show for itself. XRP, or at least the idea of it, is getting on for 15 years old and is still one 'announcement' away from actual use, and it's never XRP itself anyway.

Can empty promise be strung out for that long? When dollars are in the air anything is still possible.

[figmentofmyass]

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

The only ongoing real world ish use case are the various stablecoins that run on it. I don't know how well they run on it, or what's in it for ETH's value.

If there is to be a bubble I'm really interested to see what alts do.

i'm pretty sure they're gonna do what they always do---bubble as well. in 2017 i watched 2014's deadest coins rise from the ashes. there was no fundamental reason for that except that people were desperate to put their money into something, especially if it hadn't pumped yet. because even the shittiest of shit was getting pumped.

i can't imagine that mentality is gonna change the next time bitcoin bubbles. it's always the same thing......."bitcoin is too expensive, i'm gonna buy the next bitcoin".

as long as the bitcoin market itself is propped mostly by speculative value, i think this will continue.

[illyiller]

There was nothing like ICOs in 2013. Just shady security investments, mining rig pre-orders, and altcoins. All of which people bought in spades.

I assume some new get-rich-quick token schemes will be cooked up but it doesn't matter either way. The whole crypto market will pump regardless.

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

I was always in favor of Btc, Eth, Xmr and all the 3 are quite unique in terms of development and serving the public. They can be called as a "Trinity probably. LTC is more or less a fork of BTC and can be used as payment services.

Apart from being a payment system, Ethereum is like a Decetralized World Computer. Developers can help their company to create tokenized assets on top of the blockchain, store confidential records which cannot be destroyed over time, smart contracts for running a decentralized trustless gambling casino and a lot more. Though these can only be possible with Ether and its blockchain, there are quite few disadvantages due to the useless ERC20 tokens generated out of thin air which are more commonly used as a tool for scamming poor newbie investors.

Tanking of Ether occurs mainly due to these scam token companies dumping their Ether and converting them to USD and running away with money. ICOs are the primary reason for the dumping of Ether and they would continue unless the true use case of Ethereum blockchain is found.

If Bitcoin is a payment system, Ethereum is used for running decentralized applications. Both are unique and very much different in their idea and can never be compared. Ethereum is never considered to be a store of value nor it isn't created to serve the purpose. When the companies start shifting to the developement of decentralized applications, Ether would create a demand and so does the price will rise.

[Tytanowy Janusz]

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

I was always in favor of Btc, Eth, Xmr and all the 3 are quite unique in terms of development and serving the public. They can be called as a "Trinity probably. LTC is more or less a fork of BTC and can be used as payment services.

Apart from being a payment system, Ethereum is like a Decetralized World Computer. Developers can help their company to create tokenized assets on top of the blockchain, store confidential records which cannot be destroyed over time, smart contracts for running a decentralized trustless gambling casino and a lot more. Though these can only be possible with Ether and its blockchain, there are quite few disadvantages due to the useless ERC20 tokens generated out of thin air which are more commonly used as a tool for scamming poor newbie investors.

Tanking of Ether occurs mainly due to these scam token companies dumping their Ether and converting them to USD and running away with money. ICOs are the primary reason for the dumping of Ether and they would continue unless the true use case of Ethereum blockchain is found.

If Bitcoin is a payment system, Ethereum is used for running decentralized applications. Both are unique and very much different in their idea and can never be compared. Ethereum is never considered to be a store of value nor it isn't created to serve the purpose. When the companies start shifting to the developement of decentralized applications, Ether would create a demand and so does the price will rise.

Isn't it possible in future to implement smart contracts on bitcoin blockchain on second layer? Wouldn't that make bitcoin similar to etherum?

Though these can only be possible with Ether and its blockchain, there are quite few disadvantages due to the useless ERC20 tokens generated out of thin air which are more commonly used as a tool for scamming poor newbie investors.

And neo, waves, eos, nem, BNB and hundreds more. ETH is not unique.

In my opinion we have thousands of blockchains (most of them very similar) while only 1 is needed. And this one (bitcoin) is hitting masses the most effective (although its not the fastest).

[FanEagle]

So how do you and I intend to get new people to share in the crypto vision without first using ICO to encourage them?, because anyone you see that wants to engage themselves in cryptocurrency, wants profit out of it and they don’t care about the usage.

but ICOs don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies or even "crypto vision" or whatever you want to call it. ICO is a trick for fundraising for a "company" (basically some people in their basement) that most of the times don't even have anything to do with cryptocurrencies not to mention that coin (or C in ICO) are not actual cryptocurrencies they are tokens that have no usages.

Which means we all fully understand that the only cryptocurrency that has ever existed and would ever remain crypto is bitcoin, and if we know this, why are we still giving chances to some of these companies that has nothing to offer us other than to take people’s money and never work in line with what cryptocurrency was created for.

I think it will be the high time, we too, who are investors supports the vision for cryptocurrency by using it for what it was created for, we need to embrace bitcoin and not only invest in it, buts start using it for our transactions so that the vision of crypto can be clearly defined and seen.

[figmentofmyass]

I agree with this, so does Ethereum have anything else to offer anybody in the real world cares about? what's going to stop it tanking from here?

altcoins generally offer nothing the real world cares about. however, that was true in 2013 before they bubbled. it was also true in 2017 before they bubbled. so i wouldn't get too hung up on this line of thinking. fundamentals simply don't matter in a bubble.

all that matters is hype, greed, the perception of supply scarcity, and a thin ask side. when i started trading in early 2013, i immediately opted for litecoin because it was so "cheap" and thus i assumed it had much more upside. do you have any idea how many newcomers have this mentality? they're not coming for bitcoin, they're coming for the next bitcoin.

[WinslowIII]

I think it must be the escape of the oncoming fiat crisis. The world cannot simply continue to add trillions of dollars in new fiat a year and sticking it into debt that will never be repaid. Also, the stock market is giong to crash. When faced with the alternatives, the track record of crypto, bitcoin in particular looks like a damn good hedge.

The track record of crypto is being in a bull market when stocks are in a bull market. That's been the context during all of Bitcoin's price history. I'd hate to see what happens to speculative assets like Bitcoin when everything is crashing. Fortunately, I'm pretty confident the stock market isn't going to crash anytime soon after this year's huge V-bottom. On that subject, I agree with this guy and I think he's right that a continued bull market in stocks will benefit Bitcoin: https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1120711897475702786

The global economy will eventually turn south but as usual, people are expecting too much too soon. The next Bitcoin bubble is going to happen before (probably long before) the next major economic downturn sets in. That V-bottom in stocks just bought us a couple years.

I think you are wrong - yesterday the dow tanked 600 points and bitcoin went up nearly a grand. I absolutely stand by my assertion that when the stock market tanks money will flow into bitcoin.

[gentlemand]

I think you are wrong - yesterday the dow tanked 600 points and bitcoin went up nearly a grand. I absolutely stand by my assertion that when the stock market tanks money will flow into bitcoin.

We'd require a proper recession type thing to get a feel. A day or two here and there means nothing.

If it happened ten years from now BTC has a chance of standing separately from it. If it's within the next couple of years I think it'll take a shit just like everything else. To most it's not a hedge yet. It's a toy. And they're the first thing to be sold.

[exstasie]

The track record of crypto is being in a bull market when stocks are in a bull market. That's been the context during all of Bitcoin's price history. I'd hate to see what happens to speculative assets like Bitcoin when everything is crashing. Fortunately, I'm pretty confident the stock market isn't going to crash anytime soon after this year's huge V-bottom. On that subject, I agree with this guy and I think he's right that a continued bull market in stocks will benefit Bitcoin: https://twitter.com/coinjunky/status/1120711897475702786

The global economy will eventually turn south but as usual, people are expecting too much too soon. The next Bitcoin bubble is going to happen before (probably long before) the next major economic downturn sets in. That V-bottom in stocks just bought us a couple years.

I think you are wrong - yesterday the dow tanked 600 points and bitcoin went up nearly a grand. I absolutely stand by my assertion that when the stock market tanks money will flow into bitcoin.

That's one day of price action. I'm talking about the last decade. Let's zoom out and compare the long term charts:





I see two raging bull markets. In other words, Bitcoin has never experienced a real stock market crash or recession. So I'm pretty hesitant to assume the long term correlation will turn negative if/when that actually happens.

We'd require a proper recession type thing to get a feel. A day or two here and there means nothing.

If it happened ten years from now BTC has a chance of standing separately from it. If it's within the next couple of years I think it'll take a shit just like everything else. To most it's not a hedge yet. It's a toy. And they're the first thing to be sold.

I totally agree. Bitcoin is still considered extremely speculative compared to traditional investments and hedges. Speculative assets generally don't fare well during recessions because investors and businesses are unwinding speculative positions, not building them.

[WinslowIII]

I say this because the stock market is pumped with fiat that is becoming more and more inflated as well as quantitative easing fiat (money created out of thin air then added to a deficit that will never be paid back). Bitcoin on the other hand is deflationairy - it's fixed supply makes it a great hedge. I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.
I believe we are in the final stages of economic collapse - quantitative easing will only work for so long until the dollar value collapses, taking the stock market with it. Thanks alot Ronald Reagan, the devil himself took office and put our economy on a path to ruin by financing tax cuts and heavy military spending with future debt that has done nothing but grow out of control since. Fuck you Reagan, the worst GD excuse for a president we've ever had.

[gentlemand]

I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.

We think that. However it doesn't matter what we think about it. We're all too far down the rabbit hole.

The rest of the world does not feel that way. We'll sure as shit know when it does. I reckon at the very least that significant and widespread a change in perception is a decade away at the absolute extreme minimum.

[exstasie]

I say this because the stock market is pumped with fiat that is becoming more and more inflated as well as quantitative easing fiat (money created out of thin air then added to a deficit that will never be paid back). Bitcoin on the other hand is deflationairy - it's fixed supply makes it a great hedge.

Bitcoin is still inflationary. Supply is currently inflating at 3-4% annual.

A limited supply commodity will be a better hedge than speculative assets, sure, but even gold crashed during the 2008 crisis. In an economic contraction, money flows out of everything.

I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.

I would draw a big distinction between a traditional stock market crash or recession and a fiat currency collapse. In the former scenario, cash is king and even commodity monies fall in value. In the latter scenario, we would see money flow into hard commodity money (like gold....and Bitcoin, if people have enough faith in it). But it's much harder to predict when the USD might collapse. I've been hearing goldbugs predict imminent collapse for multiple decades.

Bitcoin is a completely new and experimental asset class. It's only a decade old and it's still prone to horrible bugs (like the inflation bug patched last year). It has extremely strong theoretical properties as money but it's still fairly untested, especially at great scale. As such, people naturally view it as a speculative asset rather than a hedge asset.

[WinslowIII]

I say this because the stock market is pumped with fiat that is becoming more and more inflated as well as quantitative easing fiat (money created out of thin air then added to a deficit that will never be paid back). Bitcoin on the other hand is deflationairy - it's fixed supply makes it a great hedge.

Bitcoin is still inflationary. Supply is currently inflating at 3-4% annual.

A limited supply commodity will be a better hedge than speculative assets, sure, but even gold crashed during the 2008 crisis. In an economic contraction, money flows out of everything.

I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.

I would draw a big distinction between a traditional stock market crash or recession and a fiat currency collapse. In the former scenario, cash is king and even commodity monies fall in value. In the latter scenario, we would see money flow into hard commodity money (like gold....and Bitcoin, if people have enough faith in it). But it's much harder to predict when the USD might collapse. I've been hearing goldbugs predict imminent collapse for multiple decades.

Bitcoin is a completely new and experimental asset class. It's only a decade old and it's still prone to horrible bugs (like the inflation bug patched last year). It has extremely strong theoretical properties as money but it's still fairly untested, especially at great scale. As such, people naturally view it as a speculative asset rather than a hedge asset.

A collapse today would act nothing like the 1929 crash and depression of the 30s. The difference is back then we were on the gold standard, and today fiat has nothing backing it - that and there is an insurmountable national debt that grows at the astonishing rate of a trillion+ every year. The rest of the world isn't doing much better.
You sound intelligent, but clearly underestimate the severity of the current situation. Quantitative easing is the last desperate attempt to prolong the inevitable total economic crash. Anybody who sees it as any kind of a fix is really stupid or really in denial.

[exstasie]

A collapse today would act nothing like the 1929 crash and depression of the 30s. The difference is back then we were on the gold standard, and today fiat has nothing backing it - that and there is an insurmountable national debt that grows at the astonishing rate of a trillion+ every year. The rest of the world isn't doing much better.

What are you trying to say about the Great Depression exactly? Many economists theorize the gold standard greatly exacerbated the Depression.

What exactly do you think is going to happen in the next crash? You keep talking about unsustainable debt but what do believe is actually going to happen?

Quantitative easing is the last desperate attempt to prolong the inevitable total economic crash. Anybody who sees it as any kind of a fix is really stupid or really in denial.

FYI, the Fed has been engaging in quantitative easing policies since the 1930s. Nothing here is really unprecedented.

https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#History

[Heisenberg_Hunter]

Isn't it possible in future to implement smart contracts on bitcoin blockchain on second layer? Wouldn't that make bitcoin similar to etherum?

Yes that's true. We can implement smart contracts through various BIPs which can be introduced in the future. But the primary goal of bitcoin was to use them as a payment system rather than being a tool for developers to develop smart contracts. Ethereum was designed for developers and Solidity is much more easier to learn and master when comparing with C++. We can have BIPs to help bitcoin support smart contracts but I am not really sure how well it could be executed successfully over time. Ethereum moved from being a developer's tool to a scammers tool during the 2017 price pump.

And neo, waves, eos, nem, BNB and hundreds more. ETH is not unique.

In my opinion we have thousands of blockchains (most of them very similar) while only 1 is needed. And this one (bitcoin) is hitting masses the most effective (although its not the fastest).

This is like comparing other payment coins with bitcoin. Neo is good but they are backed by Chinese government and they are much more look like a distributed blockchain network rather than being decentralized. With ICOs rising at an enormous rate with Ethereum behind them, Neo and other smart contract blockchains are still being in the initial stages. We can never consider Ethereum as money or a wannabe money unless being used in ICOs to buy worthless tokens, they are designed for being a tool and probably like a research project. Ethereum has been popularized due to its use in scamming investors and churning out money from the newbies. 

[bucciarati]

I think that bitcoin will be pumped to 100 000$ without any hook and after that it will be released for masses.

It will be STO (Security Token Offering) or "AI coins".
STO - tokens that are not "utility tokens" as others but securities. Owning them makes you "shareholder". You will get weekly/monthly/annually rewards which will be equal to part of company incomes and it will be guarantee due to smart contract... This will be huge.

Ai coins - I think that IA based companies will be next bubble (not only in crypto). It will be as huge as .com bubble. As crypto market is very often compared to start-up market lots of investors will come here to invest in IA start-up seeing how US stocks based on IA are being pumped. And this bubble will be huge since AI (or rather ML - we may never see true AI) is a groundbreaking technology and its impact on the profits of companies is almost impossible to etimate (thous every new price level will be accepted).

prolly you are right, there is a lot of buzz about STO in last months..

[Wind_FURY]

What do you think will be the thing that captures the imagination of the average lemming?

Last time around it was ICOs. Now they're toast.

Will it be as simple as greater legitimacy in the form of big operations green lighting crypto trading?

Will there be a new form of ICO piss taking? Many will say the collective has learnt its lesson. We all know that's utter bollocks.

What is your supposition? Does it need one at all?

I believe ICOs, but in the form of IEOs which is showing signs that "they're not permanently toast", but a cyclical, or seasonal phenomenon in the market. If bubbles can happen, they will happen.