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Author Topic: Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014  (Read 10137 times)
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March 14, 2014, 09:27:07 PM
 #41

I  belive as well this year we will witness LTC increasing more . Just remember what happened last time when BTC asics came up and compare to what is happening right now  Wink
...or, it will do the opposite and once and for all prove to this community that price does not follow the mining difficulty level.

People will buy scrypt ASICs if they will mine scrypt coins at a cheaper $/kilohash rate. They might also buy scrypt ASICs because the value of Litecoin might go up considerably due to Huobi's news. They might even just buy them because the psychological factor of "gold rush fever" is like some kind of siren call to mine, mine, mine.

But the price will not follow the difficulty level. Compare Litecoin's price and difficulty level from early December (during its price peak) to its price and difficulty level now if you are convinced that price follows difficulty.
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March 15, 2014, 08:27:19 AM
 #42

I  belive as well this year we will witness LTC increasing more . Just remember what happened last time when BTC asics came up and compare to what is happening right now  Wink
...or, it will do the opposite and once and for all prove to this community that price does not follow the mining difficulty level.

People will buy scrypt ASICs if they will mine scrypt coins at a cheaper $/kilohash rate. They might also buy scrypt ASICs because the value of Litecoin might go up considerably due to Huobi's news. They might even just buy them because the psychological factor of "gold rush fever" is like some kind of siren call to mine, mine, mine.

But the price will not follow the difficulty level. Compare Litecoin's price and difficulty level from early December (during its price peak) to its price and difficulty level now if you are convinced that price follows difficulty.

We shall talk again in 6 months.
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March 15, 2014, 09:35:45 AM
 #43

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Wrong. Altcoins allow new innovations to take place that Bitcoin may not be able to accomplish with the size of the network as it is.

In ANY market and I mean any market....there will ALWAYS be competition.

Litecoin will live on just like Bitcoin will.

All the Liteoin haters of 2011 and 2012 are now ALL SILENT on the topic.

 Cheesy

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March 15, 2014, 11:43:33 AM
 #44

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Bitcoin has a slow confirmation time problem which litecoin fixes , everyone knows Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin gold and made up formulas won't change that.

The truth is no one gives a fuck about Litecoin, not even Bitcoin is that known outside this forum. On the other hand, i've asked normal people (not nerds) if they heard Dogecoin and they know it, thats why it's the #1 used coin.

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March 15, 2014, 01:52:05 PM
 #45

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Bitcoin has a slow confirmation time problem which litecoin fixes , everyone knows Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin gold and made up formulas won't change that.

The truth is no one gives a fuck about Litecoin, not even Bitcoin is that known outside this forum. On the other hand, i've asked normal people (not nerds) if they heard Dogecoin and they know it, thats why it's the #1 used coin.

lol , what are you saying.

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March 15, 2014, 04:02:10 PM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 04:14:07 PM by Peter R
 #46

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Wrong. Altcoins allow new innovations to take place that Bitcoin may not be able to accomplish with the size of the network as it is.

In ANY market and I mean any market....there will ALWAYS be competition.

Litecoin will live on just like Bitcoin will.



I don't know why you're saying "wrong" when I agree that alt coins will continue to play an economic role.  Like you said, there will always be competition.  Like you said, experimentation is easier on a smaller network.  

I am trying only to make two points (that many here appear to disagree with):

1.  If "litecoin becomes the silver to bitcoin's gold" and you calculate a fair price based on present silver/gold market ratios, you get about 0.023 BTC/LTC.  This is simply a statement of fact.  You can give this fact as little or as much weight as you choose.  

2.  I predict that litecoin will actually have less of an economic role than silver did with respect to gold.  Silver had a very important role in pre-fiat times, with a monetary velocity significantly higher than gold's.  Even with regular day-to-day use of silver coins, the total value of monetary silver in the world remained much less than the total value of all gold. Is litecoin really going to see day-to-day use in the future like silver once did while everyone hoards their bitcoins like they once did with gold?  No.  Silver solved gold's divisibility problem but bitcoin is already divisible.  You could argue that litecoin + bitcoin permits more transactions per second than bitcoin alone, but that argument is specious as the blocksize limit will be removed.

With litecoin offering less benefits to bitcoin users than silver did during pre-fiat times, I view the current price of litecoin when priced in bitcoin as too high.  However, I do expect alt coins to continue to play an important role in the development of a cryptocurrency-based economy.  

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March 15, 2014, 04:09:03 PM
 #47

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March 15, 2014, 04:12:26 PM
 #48


Thanks Ibian.

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March 15, 2014, 09:27:01 PM
 #49

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Bitcoin has a slow confirmation time problem which litecoin fixes , everyone knows Litecoin is the silver to bitcoin gold and made up formulas won't change that.

The truth is no one gives a fuck about Litecoin, not even Bitcoin is that known outside this forum. On the other hand, i've asked normal people (not nerds) if they heard Dogecoin and they know it, thats why it's the #1 used coin.

Wrong.

My mom asked me a week ago: "how did the MTGOX hack affect you?" and she knows very little about bit coin yet she heard.

My ex coworker from about a year ago asked me the same question and he is not involved in Bitcoin, yet he heard about Bitcoin.

It is spreading like a virus.

If no one gives a fuck about Litecoin then why did the price go from $0.07 at the beginning of 2013 and then hit $48 by the end of 2013 and currently at $16?

LOL watch as Litecoin has yet another explosive year and your claim begins to fail.

Oh not to mention two of the largest Chinese Bitcoin exchanges are soon to be trading Litecoin.

 Tongue

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March 15, 2014, 09:28:56 PM
 #50

I disagree with the OP's projection of 0.038 BTC/LTC, especially over the medium and long terms.

I often hear it argued that "litecoin is the silver to bitcoin's gold."  The fair price assuming this analogy holds is:

   0.023 BTC / LTC     [https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=508064.0]

But litecoin is not, at least yet, the silver to bitcoin's gold.  And because it may never fulfil this imagined destiny, I would argue that it is overpriced now at 0.026.  The primary reason human society evolved to use a bi-metalic monetary system (gold and silver) was the silver solved gold's divisibility problem.  An ounce of gold represented a month's worth of work for many people; it wasn't feasible to scrape off a shred to purchase a loaf of bread.  

With bitcoin there is no divisibility problem.  Alt coins will play a smaller role than the one played by silver with respect to gold.    

Wrong. Altcoins allow new innovations to take place that Bitcoin may not be able to accomplish with the size of the network as it is.

In ANY market and I mean any market....there will ALWAYS be competition.

Litecoin will live on just like Bitcoin will.



I don't know why you're saying "wrong" when I agree that alt coins will continue to play an economic role.  Like you said, there will always be competition.  Like you said, experimentation is easier on a smaller network.  

I am trying only to make two points (that many here appear to disagree with):

1.  If "litecoin becomes the silver to bitcoin's gold" and you calculate a fair price based on present silver/gold market ratios, you get about 0.023 BTC/LTC.  This is simply a statement of fact.  You can give this fact as little or as much weight as you choose.  

2.  I predict that litecoin will actually have less of an economic role than silver did with respect to gold.  Silver had a very important role in pre-fiat times, with a monetary velocity significantly higher than gold's.  Even with regular day-to-day use of silver coins, the total value of monetary silver in the world remained much less than the total value of all gold. Is litecoin really going to see day-to-day use in the future like silver once did while everyone hoards their bitcoins like they once did with gold?  No.  Silver solved gold's divisibility problem but bitcoin is already divisible.  You could argue that litecoin + bitcoin permits more transactions per second than bitcoin alone, but that argument is specious as the blocksize limit will be removed.

With litecoin offering less benefits to bitcoin users than silver did during pre-fiat times, I view the current price of litecoin when priced in bitcoin as too high.  However, I do expect alt coins to continue to play an important role in the development of a cryptocurrency-based economy.  


I highlighted where I believe you will be proven wrong this year and in the future. Already to date Litecoin has utility more so in commerce than Silver does. Most silver is used for industry NOT commerce.

Silver's role as money is not even really alive anymore today. Litecoin is used as a medium of exchange and is being accepted for payment for good and services unlike Silver. So in this specific example your claim is wrong and that trend will continue to widen as more people start to accept other crypto coins for payment.

 Grin

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March 15, 2014, 09:53:32 PM
 #51

Problem with LTC vs. BTC is the miners who dump to cash out BTC.  Now BC is trying to drain the scrypt PoW alts, in order to provide indirect mining for their PoS coin.  If it catches on, this will tend to transfer the marketcap of LTC over to BC.

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March 15, 2014, 10:22:09 PM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 10:36:41 PM by Peter R
 #52


I highlighted where I believe you will be proven wrong this year and in the future. Already to date Litecoin has utility more so in commerce than Silver does. Most silver is used for industry NOT commerce.

Silver's role as money is not even really alive anymore today. Litecoin is used as a medium of exchange and is being accepted for payment for good and services unlike Silver. So in this specific example your claim is wrong and that trend will continue to widen as more people start to accept other crypto coins for payment.



OK, I believe your position is:

"Smoothie believes that litecoin will play a role in the cryptocurrency economy that grows at a rate faster than the role played by bitcoin."

If this turns out to be true, then I agree that litecoin would be a good investment.  I just don't see it happening.  


For posterity, I was making a point about the divisibility problem that silver solved from the point-of-view of pre-fiat times, when silver played an important role in trade.  I agree that presently silver plays very little role in trade, and it's price, in my opinion, rests on its laurels from a bygone era.  I am just trying to learn from a time when mankind used decentralized money (gold and silver) and see if we can relate this to bitcoin and the alts.  


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March 15, 2014, 11:25:32 PM
Last edit: March 15, 2014, 11:38:29 PM by Peter R
 #53

Problem with LTC vs. BTC is the miners who dump to cash out BTC.  Now BC is trying to drain the scrypt PoW alts, in order to provide indirect mining for their PoS coin.  If it catches on, this will tend to transfer the marketcap of LTC over to BC.


This is an important dynamic that hasn't been explored sufficiently.  When Doge was on a tear, significant hashing power left the litecoin network as it became more profitable to mine Doge.  A similar thing happened recently with AuroraCoin, which I expect to unwind soon if it hasn't already.  

There is evidence that a significant pool of the script hash power is constantly flowing to the most profitable coin of the day.  At first, this attention helps to pump up the value of the fledgling alt because its network appears to be growing for legitimate reasons.  But the hash power was never invested out of ideology, the miners never cared about the coin.  They trade the mined coins for bitcoin, reducing the market value of the once-promising alt.  Eventually, this pool of hash power has sucked both the value and excitement from the alt coin du jour and so it leaves to find a new host, returning to litecoin when none is available.  Litecoin is rewarded with its small market cap for its role in protecting bitcoin's legitimacy.  

I am starting to see this pool of script miners as a moat that surrounds the tower of bitcoin.  The bodies of dead alt coins rest on its muddy bottom as a reminder of failed coins from the past.  The moat is fluid, representing the ease that script miners can redirect hash power to mine ("neutralize") new alts.  The tower is strong and permanent, representing the fact that ASIC bitcoin hardware cannot be feasibly repurposed1.  When I say that the script hash power sucks the value out of the new alt, the value gets transferred to bitcoin and the tower grows.

Infrastructure added to the tower stays in the tower for the single purpose of mining bitcoin, while infrastructure that goes in to the moat gets distributed across the spectrum of alts fighting for legitimacy.  Because most new alts will fail, the return on aggregate investment on script miners over the medium term will be less than on bitcoin miners and thus the tower will grow faster than the moat until it is too tall to scale [this argument is admittedly lacking in evidence].


Wow, I took the moat and tower metaphor way too far….


1Unless its a double SHA256 coin but the ever-present threat of a 51% attack by the huge hashing power of bitcoin network would never allow such a coin to gain traction.

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March 15, 2014, 11:49:43 PM
 #54

Wow, I took the moat and tower metaphor way too far….
Just far enough, I think. Interesting read.

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March 16, 2014, 12:26:58 AM
 #55


I highlighted where I believe you will be proven wrong this year and in the future. Already to date Litecoin has utility more so in commerce than Silver does. Most silver is used for industry NOT commerce.

Silver's role as money is not even really alive anymore today. Litecoin is used as a medium of exchange and is being accepted for payment for good and services unlike Silver. So in this specific example your claim is wrong and that trend will continue to widen as more people start to accept other crypto coins for payment.



OK, I believe your position is:

"Smoothie believes that litecoin will play a role in the cryptocurrency economy that grows at a rate faster than the role played by bitcoin."

If this turns out to be true, then I agree that litecoin would be a good investment.  I just don't see it happening.  


For posterity, I was making a point about the divisibility problem that silver solved from the point-of-view of pre-fiat times, when silver played an important role in trade.  I agree that presently silver plays very little role in trade, and it's price, in my opinion, rests on its laurels from a bygone era.  I am just trying to learn from a time when mankind used decentralized money (gold and silver) and see if we can relate this to bitcoin and the alts.  


It isn't a belief, it is a fact that Litecoin has outperformed Bitcoin. If you use the same scale of time litecoin is ahead of where Bitcoin was when it was 2.5 years old in terms of adoption and utility.

Of course litecoin has the nice advantage of allowing Bitcoin to pave the way.

Litecoin has been a good investment for anyone who bought anytime in the first half of 2013 and prior. Trust me I've been around since litecoin was launched by Charles.


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March 16, 2014, 12:40:35 AM
 #56

OK, I believe your position is:

"Smoothie believes that litecoin will play a role in the cryptocurrency economy that grows at a rate faster than the role played by bitcoin."
It isn't a belief, it is a fact that Litecoin has outperformed Bitcoin.

What happened in the past is fact.  What we think will happen in the future is our opinion. 

Run Bitcoin Unlimited (www.bitcoinunlimited.info)
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March 16, 2014, 12:59:51 AM
 #57

OK, I believe your position is:

"Smoothie believes that litecoin will play a role in the cryptocurrency economy that grows at a rate faster than the role played by bitcoin."
It isn't a belief, it is a fact that Litecoin has outperformed Bitcoin.

What happened in the past is fact.  What we think will happen in the future is our opinion.  

Agreed. Although you never mentioned the "future" in your statement above.

Perhaps I should have reworded your statement that I believe litecoin has and will continue to outgrow Bitcoin.

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March 16, 2014, 11:42:28 AM
 #58

When I posted the volume figure few days ago, some people told me that I shouldn't look at that day because Litecoin was at a pump, I have been looking everyday at this figure for the last 3-4 months and the volume of Litecoin, and I can confirm that it was equal or even more than BTC volume.

I also wrote in my Blog about why I think Litecoin has a bright future, and why it did survive 2.5 years  www.mmitech.info







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March 16, 2014, 12:50:03 PM
 #59

the real reason for this is development of ASIC hardware for LTC and other script cryptocoins,
because SHA 256 mining is impossible, and game is ove for Bitcoin, mining factor is about 7cents/GH at 24h !!!
Now we'll have a repeat of Bitcoin but with Litecoin.
These are great speculation mining company, for the sake of their huge profits.
They do a lot of wisely and systematic.

Check my thread from 15. feb 2014
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=467191.0

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March 16, 2014, 01:16:52 PM
 #60

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

Bitcoin and Litecoin hodler
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