Bitcoin down Litecoin UP 2014

[igorr]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

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[koryu]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

whats your prediction for the litecoin price after asic hardware is available?


As already mentioned, satoshi said

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." -Satoshi

We got this scrypt miner with 200mh/s for  15000 Euro + Tax ~ 17500 Euro: https://www.mining-asics-technologies.com/product/excalibur-3-asic-scrypt-miner-200-mhs/

Hashrate minimum guarantee 200 MH/s. Shipments will be started within Q3/Q4 of Year 2014.

Lets assume they ship it in August 2014, 5month from now.
Important will be the difficulty at release. Over the last 5month the dificulty grew from 1000 to 5000. So i assume that difficulty could be around 25000 in August.
200mh/s at 25000 difficulty could mine 241.4 LTC / Month. After ASIC release the difficulty should grow faster, so i would expect you can mine around 500 LTC with it within 3months.

Does this help us to predict a price in any way? It looks like that the production cost is kinda high, if the difficulty keeps growing as before.

If difficulty is that high and you could mine only 500LTC with an 17,500 Euro hardware investment in 3month then the production cost would be 35 Euro ~ 48 Usd (+ costs of electricity).

[igorr]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

whats your prediction for the litecoin price after asic hardware is available?

I say asic for scrypt,
Ordinary people can not control the price cryptocoins, these work exclusively producers of mining hardware
I think LTC will be about 100-150 usd in 2014 year, but BTC go down to 150-250usd.

[koryu]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

whats your prediction for the litecoin price after asic hardware is available?

I say asic for scrypt,
Ordinary people can not control the price cryptocoins, these work exclusively producers of mining hardware
I think LTC will be about 100-150 usd in 2014 year, but BTC go down to 150-250usd.

i dont see why btc should go down while ltc is going up. a major btc crash will also affect ltc price imo.

according to my calculation, i think 30$+ per ltc is possible in summer but btc should be 1000$+ at this time.

[igorr]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

whats your prediction for the litecoin price after asic hardware is available?

I say asic for scrypt,
Ordinary people can not control the price cryptocoins, these work exclusively producers of mining hardware
I think LTC will be about 100-150 usd in 2014 year, but BTC go down to 150-250usd.

i dont see why btc should go down while ltc is going up. a major btc crash will also affect ltc price imo.

according to my calculation, i think 30$+ per ltc is possible in summer but btc should be 1000$+ at this time.

For BTC,
The price is artificially raised by the manufacturer mining hardware,and now no longer have any interest in it,
because SHA 256 mining is impossible, and game is over for Bitcoin, mining factor is about 7cents/GH at 24h !!!
BTC will constantly fall.

For next 10 days mining factor is -13%

View Screen Capture

[El Dude]

bitcoin won't go down , it will rise bringing litecoin with it and killing most other copy/scam coins.

[igorr]

bitcoin won't go down , it will rise bringing litecoin with it and killing most other copy/scam coins.

yes btc will down,
because for traders not interesting valuuta at rest, we see, bitcoin never exceed the 700 usd.
and it means that they will over time lose its value and interest.

[Feri22]

bitcoin won't go down , it will rise bringing litecoin with it and killing most other copy/scam coins.

yes btc will down,
because for traders not interesting valuuta at rest, we see, bitcoin never exceed the 700 usd.
and it means that they will over time lose its value and interest.

Are you ready to bet 1 BTC on your statement (BTC never exceeding 700 USD) or are you just trolling around? 

[Feri22]

Litecoin surpasses bitcoin 24HR volume, looks like the market is getting ready for Huobi

http://www.reddit.com/r/litecoin/comments/20jpce/litecoin_surpasses_bitcoin_24hr_volume_looks_like/

the real reason  is development of ASIC technology to mining script.
Everything is the same as with Bitcoin.

whats your prediction for the litecoin price after asic hardware is available?

I say asic for scrypt,
Ordinary people can not control the price cryptocoins, these work exclusively producers of mining hardware
I think LTC will be about 100-150 usd in 2014 year, but BTC go down to 150-250usd.

i dont see why btc should go down while ltc is going up. a major btc crash will also affect ltc price imo.

according to my calculation, i think 30$+ per ltc is possible in summer but btc should be 1000$+ at this time.

For BTC,
The price is artificially raised by the manufacturer mining hardware,and now no longer have any interest in it,
because SHA 256 mining is impossible, and game is over for Bitcoin, mining factor is about 7cents/GH at 24h !!!
BTC will constantly fall.

For next 10 days mining factor is -13%

View Screen Capture

"SHA 256 mining is impossible?" since when? Did i miss something?

[Ibian]

Wish people would stop quoting trolls. Better yet paying attention to them.

[Feri22]

Wish people would stop quoting trolls. Better yet paying attention to them.

You are right. They got me off guard, my apologies. Don't happen again. 

[Feri22]

Wish people would stop quoting trolls. Better yet paying attention to them.

Somehow i have the need to show newbies and others who don't know how it works here yet, that these kind of guys are just trolling. You know it, i know it, but the newbies don't know it and some of them will really believe these clowns...I found out, the best way how to silence them is to challenge them to bet...fonzie (one of the most epic clown-trolls these days) was trolling like crazy and i offered him absurdly good bet with 3:1 ratio for him and there was quite for some time, no answer/trolling for days....But you are right it is not helping to quote them and i won't do that again...i will challenge them to bet time from time without the quoting...

[frobley]

There is evidence that a significant pool of the script hash power is constantly flowing to the most profitable coin of the day.  At first, this attention helps to pump up the value of the fledgling alt because its network appears to be growing for legitimate reasons.  But the hash power was never invested out of ideology, the miners never cared about the coin.  They trade the mined coins for bitcoin, reducing the market value of the once-promising alt.  Eventually, this pool of hash power has sucked both the value and excitement from the alt coin du jour and so it leaves to find a new host...

stevenlam?

[Peter R]

There is evidence that a significant pool of the script hash power is constantly flowing to the most profitable coin of the day.  At first, this attention helps to pump up the value of the fledgling alt because its network appears to be growing for legitimate reasons.  But the hash power was never invested out of ideology, the miners never cared about the coin.  They trade the mined coins for bitcoin, reducing the market value of the once-promising alt.  Eventually, this pool of hash power has sucked both the value and excitement from the alt coin du jour and so it leaves to find a new host...

stevenlam?

Are you asking if I previously went by the username "stevenlam"?  I've always gone by Peter. 

[Undone]

There is evidence that a significant pool of the script hash power is constantly flowing to the most profitable coin of the day.  At first, this attention helps to pump up the value of the fledgling alt because its network appears to be growing for legitimate reasons.  But the hash power was never invested out of ideology, the miners never cared about the coin.  They trade the mined coins for bitcoin, reducing the market value of the once-promising alt.  Eventually, this pool of hash power has sucked both the value and excitement from the alt coin du jour and so it leaves to find a new host, returning to litecoin when none is available.

No.

You left out one piece of logic there - the block target. For all of the Litecoin clones, the model is exactly the same (and the same as bitcoin; +/- block reward halving, which Litecoin does not have, to my knowledge).

The same amount of coins are being minted whether there are 10 miners or 100,000 (with of course the exception of bitcoin, where the constantly-increasing hashrate pulls the block target so hard that supply does typically get ahead of the block target, on average). The hashrate does not change the "supply" of coins. You possibly didn't omit this intentionally, but this is a fallacy that is constantly propagated in this community because of the misunderstanding of the block target.

So technically, your theory is not correct. The profitability-switching scrypt pools do not negatively impact the economy of the coin, necessarily. 10 miners could dump all minted coins from that day onto the exchange, and 100,00 miners of that same coin can dump all of the minted coins from that day onto the exchange rate. In both cases, the same number of coins are brought to the sell side of the market.

Hashrate has no direct effect on price. Hoarding has an effect on price, but has no causation to any coin's difficulty level.

Someone will inevitably chime in with some kind of an argument claiming that correlation = causation on this topic. It doesn't.

[Peter R]

There is evidence that a significant pool of the script hash power is constantly flowing to the most profitable coin of the day.  At first, this attention helps to pump up the value of the fledgling alt because its network appears to be growing for legitimate reasons.  But the hash power was never invested out of ideology, the miners never cared about the coin.  They trade the mined coins for bitcoin, reducing the market value of the once-promising alt.  Eventually, this pool of hash power has sucked both the value and excitement from the alt coin du jour and so it leaves to find a new host, returning to litecoin when none is available.

No.

You left out one piece of logic there - the block target. For all of the Litecoin clones, the model is exactly the same (and the same as bitcoin; +/- block reward halving, which Litecoin does not have, to my knowledge).

The same amount of coins are being minted whether there are 10 miners or 100,000 (with of course the exception of bitcoin, where the constantly-increasing hashrate pulls the block target so hard that supply does typically get ahead of the block target, on average). The hashrate does not change the "supply" of coins. You possibly didn't omit this intentionally, but this is a fallacy that is constantly propagated in this community because of the misunderstanding of the block target.

So technically, your theory is not correct. The profitability-switching scrypt pools do not negatively impact the economy of the coin, necessarily. 10 miners could dump all minted coins from that day onto the exchange, and 100,00 miners of that same coin can dump all of the minted coins from that day onto the exchange rate. In both cases, the same number of coins are brought to the sell side of the market.

Hashrate has no direct effect on price. Hoarding has an effect on price, but has no causation to any coin's difficulty level.

Someone will inevitably chime in with some kind of an argument claiming that correlation = causation on this topic. It doesn't.

I think you're reading something into my post that's not there.  I was saying that the increase in the hashrate temporarily increases confidence and thus perceived value.  Community members of the fledgling alt say "hey, look at all these miners coming in.  People must really love our new coins!"  I wasn't implying that if the hashrate increases by a factor of 100 then 100x the coins would be mined in perpetuity--difficulty get adjusted in order to target a certain inflation level (block rate).  

But a rapid increase in hashing power can still lead to more coins being sold: if the new hash power is in it only for the bitcoins, then a larger fraction of newly-minted coins will be traded rather than held by the original miner, thereby increasing the supply of coins for sale and applying downwards pressure on the alt coin price.  

EDIT: this is what I mean by the "moat."  When bitcoin started, most miners were actually interested in bitcoin, and thus a larger fraction of the hash power held their coins.  But now, when a new "script" coin is introduced, it draws people who are genuinely interested in the coin as well as miners searching for the most cost-effective way to earn bitcoins.  My thesis is that this dynamic tends to increase the alt coin supply "for sale" and eventually hinder price advances, creating a barrier to entry for new alt coins.  

In other words, it's difficult for new alt coins to cross the moat.  

[Undone]

I think you're reading something into my post that's not there.

Yes, it's possible.

I was saying that the increase in the hashrate temporarily increases confidence and thus perceived value.  Community members of the fledgling alt says "hey, look at all these miners coming in.  People must really love our new coins!"

Agree with this, but it's a short term trend, and it's only psychological. And this is a scenario from which people around here derive the idea (not referring to you) that price follows the hashrate. But if you look at the new alts that pop up on Cryptsy, almost all of them have the same pattern - they get pumped hard by whales just after release, noob buyers pile in to the pump, dump ensues, coin drops in value drastically. But, this "whale procedure" has nothing to do with the hashrate; it's measured only in the activity on the exchanges.

I wasn't implying that if the hashrate increases by a factor of 100 then suddenly 100x the coins would be mined--difficulty get adjusted in order to target a certain inflation level (block rate).

I gotcha.

But a rapid increase in hashing power can still lead to more coins being sold: if the new hash power is in it only for the bitcoins, then a larger fraction of newly-minted coins will be traded rather than held by the original miner, thereby increasing the supply of coins for sale and applying downwards pressure on the alt coin price.

True, but it doesn't mean that it's any less likely that the original, smaller amount of miners contained the same ratio of dumpers.

At any rate, just to address a point I made earlier in the thread - when Scrypt ASICs assumably hit the market in full force later this year and if Litecoin's value goes up, there will be a large contingency here pointing and saying, "Look! Price follows difficulty!"

[eiskalt]

The indicators for LTC/BTC at BTC-e are looking pretty overbought at the moment.

Nevertheless Litecoin is showing strength at the moving averages (LTC/BTC and LTC/USD). While on the contrary bitcoin (BTC/USD) is looking weak there.

I also expect LTC/BTC to appreciate in 2014. I think LTC/BTC=1.00 is possible.

What do you expect will happen, when huobi starts trading Litecoin? I would expect a short and sharp decline back to around 0.0200 for the LTC/BTC pair.

[Ibian]

I think LTC/BTC=1.00 is possible.

Person to permanently disregard.

[eiskalt]

What do you expect will happen, when huobi starts trading Litecoin? I would expect a short and sharp decline back to around 0.0200 for the LTC/BTC pair.

Any argument for that? Because there is no logic in that... ltc demand will only grow with huobi trading volume - bigger demand=bigger price. I expext a spike to the 0.05. Lots off ltc will be moved on chinies exchanges now.

(...)

As I said, the indicators for LTC/BTC and LTC/USD are looking pretty overbought ATM.

And when huobi starts litecoin trading, it would be a perfect timing for the indicators to come down.

In 2013 bitcoin appreciated 100 fold - litecoin appreciated (only) 40 fold.

For 2014 I see litecoin outperform bitcoin.