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Author Topic: Only 1.6% (!!!) of USD Bitcoin trading volume is real. 98.4% dollar volume fake!  (Read 392 times)
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May 23, 2019, 01:41:24 PM
 #1

Perhaps some of you might have seen this Reddit discussion about fake volume?

The data is extracted from CoinMarketCap. Simply by removing all "stablecoins" and adding up only U$ volumes, you arrive at 1.6% Bitcoin volume traded in actual cash. Everything else is stablecoins.

What do you think about this? Seems like obviously something's wrong here? Why are stablecoins even being called dollars? Makes no sense. This is a time bomb and gonna explode at some point.

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May 23, 2019, 01:55:40 PM
 #2

Until stablecoins are backed, nothing bad can happen. Tether has been blamed for a few years, but it's still here. Over time more stable coins appear, which makes it possible not to put all eggs in one basket. USD inputs from credits cards are also open, for example, on Binance and some other exchanges, but stablecoins are more convenient as you can't sell your btc back with exchange and get dollars to your credit card (as far as I know, maybe it will be possible soon).
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May 23, 2019, 02:16:43 PM
 #3

Perhaps some of you might have seen this Reddit discussion about fake volume?

The data is extracted from CoinMarketCap. Simply by removing all "stablecoins" and adding up only U$ volumes, you arrive at 1.6% Bitcoin volume traded in actual cash. Everything else is stablecoins.

What do you think about this? Seems like obviously something's wrong here? Why are stablecoins even being called dollars? Makes no sense. This is a time bomb and gonna explode at some point.

There are certain benefits of using stablecoins and let me explain those benefits without going through the debate of backed up stablecoins. Real USD volumes are less for certain reasons as mentioned below,

1. It requires a bank account and the transfers can be tracked by the regulatory bodies.
2. Most of the crypto traders prefer to remain anonymous
3. Stablecoins are easier to handle than real USD

A majority of the traders don't prefer to go through all these hassles. They just need something which can be calculated according to the value of USD. Stablecoins just filled up that space!

So inclusion of stablecoins is the right way to calculate USD volume because they are just the digital representation of USD. Actual USD handling requires a lot of hassles and your choice of exchange becomes limited!

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May 23, 2019, 02:43:58 PM
 #4

Perhaps some of you might have seen this Reddit discussion about fake volume?

The data is extracted from CoinMarketCap. Simply by removing all "stablecoins" and adding up only U$ volumes, you arrive at 1.6% Bitcoin volume traded in actual cash. Everything else is stablecoins.

What do you think about this? Seems like obviously something's wrong here? Why are stablecoins even being called dollars? Makes no sense. This is a time bomb and gonna explode at some point.

From what I understand, there is nothing wrong with stablecoin as long as it is properly backed by something and it is usually by the dollar though there are those now experimenting with gold, other fiat currency and yes even T-bills. Stablecoins are very useful in trading and they are there precisely to provide stability hence the name. You ask traders and most likely they are using stablecoins from time to time. Of course, the controversy in Tether got many to question the integrity of the coin and their utility.

 
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May 23, 2019, 02:55:32 PM
 #5

The guy made a big "salad", trying something good, having some good ideas, but vastly incomplete. And incomplete means bad in this case.

He removed stablecoins. Great. But he should have counted all the fiat. USD is not the only fiat. There are big volumes on BRL, CNY, CRW, EUR and maybe others too.
Yes, stablecoins are a plague. Unfortunately we have to live with them. Sooner or later the fake (not backed for real) ones will go down.
The numbers look pretty bad. But making them even worse by missing out this and that won't help anybody.

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May 23, 2019, 04:14:10 PM
Last edit: May 23, 2019, 04:58:48 PM by stompix
 #6

The reddit discussion is like this:
Only 1.6% of the USD/Bitcoin reported volume is actually traded in USD
NOBODY said anything about fake.

Just because I trade LTC vs BTC doesn't mean it's fake.
But, and this is quite funny, although I don't agree with how the conclusion was taken, I agree with the results, probably ~95% is fake activity, bots run by the exchanges themselves to attract customers with fake numbers.

Real USD volumes are less for certain reasons as mentioned below,

1. It requires a bank account and the transfers can be tracked by the regulatory bodies.
2. Most of the crypto traders prefer to remain anonymous
3. Stablecoins are easier to handle than real USD

4. A lot of shitty tokens end up being listed only on shitty exchanges that have no USD or another fiat alternative because they want to leave no tracks when they exit scam.
And so users are forced to sell their tokens for stable coins and then turn their stable coin into either BTC or ETH or fiat.


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May 23, 2019, 04:41:07 PM
 #7

I am not about the ratio but there is a huge fake volume on exchanges. Right now coingecko has a good initiative to prevent that but we will see how effective it will be.

Also, there is this: https://www.bti.live/reports-april2019/

Even big exchanges like huobi and okex using fake volume. I think fake volume is a disease on crypto need to be cured.

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May 23, 2019, 04:47:12 PM
 #8

volume is an irrelevant metric anyway

having say $50k volume one day but $30k volume the next is MEANINGLESS
it does NOT mean more people are trading.
it does NOT mean more dollar is deposited.
it does NOT mean more people want to buy

volume does not reveal WHO or how much.
for instance with just $5k i can day trade/arbitrage around a market 10 times and make the volume appear as $50k even though the physical $$ moving is just $5k for the entire day.

but i do have to agree, because 'stablecoins' dont have the disadvantage of taking 3-5 business days to move from an american account of exchange A to exchange B. stable coins can be used to arbitrage exchanges in seconds. which makes arbitrages circle faster and thus make volumes numbers appear larger due to more arbitrage cycles.

what would be more of a metric is how much fiat is on orderlines at any one point. then different days you can spot if there are more or less 'buyers' than usual because you can spot how much TOTAL $$ is fixed to an orderline thus able to total how much dollar wants to be buying bitcoin.

the other advantage is that you can spot which direction a market may flow. here is the most easiest way without knowing numbers but just looking at order charts


but getting back to the topic.. the "volume" metric is meaningless.. it reveals absolutely nothing about the markets that can be of any use in any way


I DO NOT TRADE OR ACT AS ESCROW ON THIS FORUM EVER.
Please do your own research & respect what is written here as both opinion & information gleaned from experience. many people replying with insults but no on-topic content substance, automatically are 'facepalmed' and yawned at
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May 23, 2019, 04:51:04 PM
 #9

1. It requires a bank account and the transfers can be tracked by the regulatory bodies.
The real problem is not that you need a bank account but the thing that it takes a huge amount of time to open this account in your bank, verify this account and start trading. At the end you will get a huge pain in the ass just to get an access to exchange where you  can lose all your money. And even if you are lucky to earn something then it may take a week to complete your withdrawal.

2. Most of the crypto traders prefer to remain anonymous
They are either retarded or involved into some illegal activities.

3. Stablecoins are easier to handle than real USD
It is another pain in the ass to move fiat from one exchange to another that is currently solved with stablecoins.
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May 23, 2019, 04:59:59 PM
 #10

It doesn't matter if it's stablecoins? it's just a way to efficiently and easily trade with fiat-pegged crypto(so, able to send it very fast etc)..

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May 23, 2019, 05:05:05 PM
Merited by BQ (1)
 #11

Perhaps some of you might have seen this Reddit discussion about fake volume?

The data is extracted from CoinMarketCap. Simply by removing all "stablecoins" and adding up only U$ volumes, you arrive at 1.6% Bitcoin volume traded in actual cash. Everything else is stablecoins.

It doesn't make sense to remove all stablecoin volume. If a stablecoin is redeemable for dollars, and people are using it to hedge like dollars, then these volumes are obviously taking away from real dollar volumes.

There's lots of fake volume present, but this is the wrong way to analyze it.

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May 23, 2019, 05:13:03 PM
Merited by jjjfff (1)
 #12

This is not new. With the advent of stablecoins, people are just using those instead of real dollars in trading. Also, exchanges have this habit of faking the volume that goes within their platform to lure more customers and traders in. However I'm not sure whether keeping most of the volumes in stablecoins is a good idea considering that the issue of these currencies being backed by real assets/dollars is still somewhat questionable at best.

Until stablecoins are backed, nothing bad can happen. Tether has been blamed for a few years, but it's still here. Over time more stable coins appear, which makes it possible not to put all eggs in one basket. USD inputs from credits cards are also open, for example, on Binance and some other exchanges, but stablecoins are more convenient as you can't sell your btc back with exchange and get dollars to your credit card (as far as I know, maybe it will be possible soon).

One can only hope that they really are backed by something that can really hold value as what Tether introduced them to be.

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May 23, 2019, 05:15:54 PM
 #13

Well I can't see anything wrong with the trade volume hike as a result of trading against stable coins.. The angle I find scammish is the trade volume on some exchange. Amongst the top 10 exchange by volume,  I doubt 50 percent of them have the trade volume they claim.. This false volume account for bitcoin value and to be this calls for better alternative to coinmarketcap.

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May 23, 2019, 06:50:42 PM
 #14

This has been an issue for a long time. We can see trading volume as nothing but it could really deceive traders. They're actually doing something to fake their volumes to attract investors which is bad at this point because they're causing confusion.

 
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May 23, 2019, 07:49:15 PM
Merited by jjjfff (1)
 #15

One can only hope that they really are backed by something that can really hold value as what Tether introduced them to be.
People don't seem to care anymore unfortunately.

I have seen how people on social media point out that they don't believe that Tether is fully backed, but use it anyway because it offers them the convenience and usability they are looking for.

As long as Tether remains the most liquid and widely used/accepted stablecoin, nothing will change for the better I'm afraid. Its first mover advantage will make sure it stays on top for many more years to come.

Another thing is that exchanges don't have much incentive to promote other stablecoins because of how much volume Tether generates for them, so it's not looking all to good for people hoping to see the situation change.

 
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May 23, 2019, 08:10:37 PM
Merited by jjjfff (1)
 #16

As long as Tether remains the most liquid and widely used/accepted stablecoin, nothing will change for the better I'm afraid. Its first mover advantage will make sure it stays on top for many more years to come.

Their days are numbered. Companies like BTC-e and 1Broker weren't immune from US federal agencies, and Tether isn't either. The DOJ is only six months into a criminal probe of Bitfinex and Tether for market manipulation. That probe was launched nearly a year after the CFTC began investigating them for the same thing. Sooner or later, both Bitfinex and Tether are probably going to have seizure notices on their domains.

Another thing is that exchanges don't have much incentive to promote other stablecoins because of how much volume Tether generates for them, so it's not looking all to good for people hoping to see the situation change.

If volume goes to other stablecoin markets on the same exchange, it certainly doesn't hurt them. I noticed that Binance promotes other stablecoin markets like USDC and PAX when you press the "Trade" button on your balances page. I think subtly pushing traders towards safer stablecoins makes sense for exchanges because a Tether implosion will be bad for everyone. The bigger they are when they go down, the worse the collateral damage will be.

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May 23, 2019, 08:30:56 PM
 #17

Most developers are actually manipulating their coin's volume so that it could look appealing to traders and investors.
It's their way of making people believe that their coin has potential and because of its volume and it causes deception and confusion. Because of fake trading volumes, we are making wrong decisions most of the time so it's something serious that exchanges should do something about.

 
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May 23, 2019, 08:50:15 PM
 #18

I expected the volume of stable coins to be higher than the volume of actual USD but this seems like a very disproportionate market to me. Most likely the numbers are this way because pretty much every small-medium exchange use different bots and machines to fake their volume in order to attract more clients because apparently people tend to choose those exchanges that have the highest volume even though over 90% of it its fake
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May 23, 2019, 08:55:10 PM
 #19

I experience this in an exchange in Japan, when I was trading a particular coin last year, I do experience a sudden pump and a sudden dump, should I set a sell order, another maker will quicker topple my order and mine will go to second or their position, sometimes the sell and buy order margin use to be wide and this sometimes make me spend more time trying to swing trade. It was been manipulated.

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May 23, 2019, 09:00:20 PM
 #20

Perhaps some of you might have seen this Reddit discussion about fake volume?

The data is extracted from CoinMarketCap. Simply by removing all "stablecoins" and adding up only U$ volumes, you arrive at 1.6% Bitcoin volume traded in actual cash. Everything else is stablecoins.

What do you think about this? Seems like obviously something's wrong here? Why are stablecoins even being called dollars? Makes no sense. This is a time bomb and gonna explode at some point.

I am agree with you, this is a time bomb who is going to explode... This tricky market has tokens as it bases, and this will take us to nowhere, so, be carefull with this bubble and play it smart, because when the crash comes, it will do it hard.

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