Long term advance notice!

[error08]

It's not a long term advance notice, just a bluffing.
The fact is bitcoin still rise up and reached $13000 in July, although now it seems really bearish, probably drop to $6000. However, the best long term advice is buy bitcoin in the dip and sell at the peak just hold with all your patience.

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[marcbitcoins]

If this plan was on 2018 then it is a long overdue by now because we have few months left before this year would end. Although the Bitcoin market is still in bearish but i think this is just a normal market movement because CSW is mentioning of up to 50% one time big time dump that never happen therefore it is clear that this is one of his strategy to push Bitcoin SV after declaring he was Satoshi.

[THX 1138]

Relaying a response:

They'll still have solar panel miners surely, some are already expended their money to mine.    Its similar in a few commodity operations, some have to mine to get any income and stopping is not a real option.

Read and understand the thread before posting some misunderstanding which had already been clarified.

The theory is that the Bitcoin Core miners will be forced to go mine the legacy Bitcoin and receive their fair share of the SegWit donations, thus making them very profitable whilst the Core protocol blockchain dies. Yet I repeat myself over and over again, because readers are too lazy to read the damn thread entirely.

[hv_]

Relaying reminder tweets

https://mobile.twitter.com/BitcoinSVtrain/status/1142015352798187521

[THX 1138]

Relaying another response:

Relaying reminder tweets

https://mobile.twitter.com/BitcoinSVtrain/status/1142015352798187521

Another one:

https://twitter.com/riverish333/status/1184767609352478725

I started a thread on this.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5197354.msg52932078#msg52932078

But it really seems to me that whales or whoever have completely lost their minds on making big mining farms at this point in time...

Ok, as usual, as big players and whale antic's go...I don't get the current LARGE upsurge in Whale games and interest in very big mining operations and expectations,

Me thinks they understand a SegWit “donations” booty is coming...^[1]

Stock to flow is irrelevant for LTC.

You people are the most dishonest, retarded, fucking scammers I've ever seen in my entire life.  It's not possible for this 'stock to flow' nonsense to be completely invalid for Litecoin and every other coin and work ONLY for Bitcoin. They're all the same 'asset' class - I use the term "asset" extremely loosely because imaginary timestamps are not an asset - so it either has to work for all of them or none of them.  It obviously works for none of them because a stock to flow model only works on physical commodity resources humans actually need with some type of inelastic demand.

Forced to reply as you are calling me in a way I don't like.

If only you would use some of your time to actually read about the model (plenty of places to do that, one of those being here), instead of repeating the same old story, you would understand why this model is not applicable to Litecoin.

What is your rationale for why 'stock to flow' would work on Bitcoin when it doesn't work on ANY other digital crapcoin?  You don't have one.  You're either required to be a dishonest scammer or negro-level IQ to not be able to realize scarcity in vacuum for scarcity's sake is meaningless.  The idea of stock to flow requires pairing scarcity with inelastic demand.  To have inelastic demand requires being an actual physical resource humans need, not an IMAGINARY timestamp.  TIMESTAMPS are not in short supply ANYWHERE.

Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency with unforgeable costliness,

What the fuck.  You have GOT TO BE SHITTING ME.  That's an entirely made up, bullshit word salad like blue hair feminists fabricate out of thin air to try and bamboozle people.  I don't know why you people even quote Nick Szabo when he's an Ethereum shill.  It was obvious it was a Wolf of Wall Street IPO scam before it was even released, with the system itself incapable of even functioning at a drawing board level.

When he's bullshitting you in things like that, it's obvious he's bullshitting you in lots of other places too.  He makes numerous leaps of illogic like concluding the only reason humans value something like gold is because it has large amounts of sunk cost fallacy to produce, then tries to claim that PoW aka "unforgeable costliness" replicates that sunk cost fallacy making Bitcoin equal to gold LOL.  This whole simpleton train of logic is so stupid it hurts.  If Bitcoin had "unforgeable costliness", the 51% attack would not even exist for fucks sake.

And producing gold isn't even sunk cost fallacy in the first place since you're producing an actual resource, while Bitcoin REALLY IS sunk cost fallacy producing nothing.  So it's a complete apples to Toyota Corollas comparison.  Then factor in absolutely none of the other million traits of physical metals and Bitcoin are comparable either with one being an imaginary object and all.

Unforgeable costliness and the lack of a sunk cost fallacy in the longest (aka greatest cumulative difficulty) proof-of-work chain, is due to the Nash equilibrium game theory that incentivizes everyone to continue mining and transacting on the legacy, immutable original. This theory has been falsified numerous times with every hard fork of Bitcoin being sold off.^[1]

The decentralized Nash equilibrium exists because the utility of Bitcoin is greater than any extant decentralized alternative (e.g. gold). Thus there’s no Schelling point to reach for alternative forks which have less consensus and thus less utility. Other examples of cryptocurrency utility which gold lacks, include the ability to be transported instantly as information and the fact that the tangible mass of Bitcoin (which is all the mining hardware) is disconnected from the intangible store of the transportable asset. Note the theoretical ideal proof-of-work is 100% efficient and thus burns no electricity (as heat) and burns only the depreciation of the hardware. Proof-of-work is an epochal technological shift which will transform human civilization. Proof-of-stake does not burn a tangible resource, so thus has no unforgeable costliness in which to base a Nash equilibrium.

The properties of gold which give it utility that older forms of money and later which fiat money lack, have thus historically been a Nash equilibrium, because there was no Schelling point to reach for metals with inferior properties, except that gold was too rare to be used as the transactional currency which gave rise to silver as a medium-of-exchange (aka the poor man’s money). Yet gold was in tension with social scalability (e.g. the soon-to-be, deprecated need for debt financing in the former fixed capital age) and thus the Nash equilibrium for gold could not prevent the rise of fiat money which was an imperfect yet more socially scalable form of money.

The huge problem for gold now is that proof-of-work replaces virtually all its utility while adding superior utility.

“‘They will throw their silver into the streets,
    and their gold will be treated as a thing unclean.
Their silver and gold
    will not be able to deliver them
    in the day of the Lord’s wrath.

The only remaining utility for gold is the illogical and unjustified fear that decentralized mining can be disrupted or the possibly justified fear that mining can be monopolized. If the latter technological problem is justified and can be solved, a Bitcoin killer may still be on the horizon. However bear in mind social scalability. It may be the case that the illusion of decentralization combined with the lack of extremely potent anonymity technology, may be more socially scalable than some other ideal.

My belief is that the historical bifurcation of the world into gold versus fiat money will be replicated with a bifurcation of Bitcoin (as the reserve asset backing the new monetary system which may include Libra as a global 666 transaction coin) versus an underground, dark web, completely anonymous more provably decentralized proof-of-work altcoin. Note how my perspective differs from the one held by those who incorrectly (c.f. also) believe HTLCs such as Lightning Networks will be the transactional system.

Litecoin has unforgeable costliness only if it provides sufficiently unique and compelling utility that Bitcoin and other altcoins lack. The confusion over whether it does or will, is why altcoins have had some value over the short-term, but just look at their charts paired against BTC and it is clear they are losing leverage over time (i.e. the illusion of their utility is dying). Significant deadcat rallies in leverage relative to BTC are likely along the way to their eventual death (with one such rally already underway with GRS/BTC as I predicted in my private discussion group and likely LTC/BTC preparing to launch also).

^[1] Btw, this is why Bitcoin Core (aka omnibus SegWit at al mutations of Satoshi’s protocol since Satoshi exited the crime scene) is an impostor “soft fork” and will be eventually destroyed when a hard fork (aka fuck-off) is forced (and I believe probably at the May 2020 halving) by a SegWit protocol violation that enforces said unforgeable costliness to protect the said Nash equilibrium which gives Bitcoin its durable value.

Bitcoin is a derivative of the US dollar and various other fiats and is in no way free floating whatsoever, nor the unit of account of anything.

That will be falsified when Libra replaces the US dollar with (legacy) Bitcoin as the reserve sometime later in this decade and the U.S. dollar collapses whilst (legacy) Bitcoin continues to the moon.

For inflation?  If there was a Venezeulan-style melt up, people then lose faith in the current unit of account (Jewish Federal Reserve note), and all pile into the base of Exter's Pyramid to try and retain value (physical gold and silver). Bitcoin is located nowhere near the base of Exter's Pyramid so in a rush to the exits will not be the benefactor of becoming the new unit of account.

Empirically that’s already been falsified recently in Venezuela. The Venezuelans weren’t walking across the border to Colombia with bits of gold in their pockets. That would have been too dangerous. Interest in cryptocurrencies has been significant and rising according to anecdotal reports. Ditto Argentina.

Heck Venezuela even had the threat of their gold being confiscated by the bankers in London. Gold has declining utility because the transferrable asset is attached to its physical mass, unlike proof-of-work where the physical mass (the mining equipment) is detached from the transferable value.

Face the facts.

Looks to me, (or my uniformed self) that China soon is gonna make a real run at Crypto with their own Cryptocurrency.

Again, IMHO, they seem to be taking the LIBRA route and seems to me to be sidelining Bitcoin as a 'store of value' and

https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/china-is-banning-any-criticism-of-bitcoin-and-blockchain-technology-201910311837

Libra and China’s competitor shitcoin ultimately must back their centralized, no Nash equilibrium proof-of-stake shitcoins with Bitcoin reserves, otherwise they’ll be replaced by a transactional medium-of-exchange that does. Because Bitcoin is the only monetary asset other than precious metals which has a decentralized Nash equilibrium due to unforgeable costliness.

However, what happens if someone creates a cryptocurrency that effectively has decentralized (i.e. can’t be BSV nor BCH which only increase block sizes via the ruse of centralized mining) transactional volume scaling and a Nash equilibrium with unforgeable costliness? HTLCs such as Lightning Networks can’t succeed and besides Bitcoin has a poison pill game theory which will destroy all the mutations to the protocol since Satoshi left the building.

[Illidan19]

There won’t be any Segwit spend to any attacks…

There are barely any nodes running satoshi’s old codebase, that code was buggy and vulnerable and couldn’t handle higher traffic, so they’re all gone.

It’s the same as breaking any other consensus rule — like allowing joe-blow to spend block 1’s coins with a key that isn’t the right one, or mining 1000 BTC in a block or whatever: all nodes enforcing the rule will ignore the invalid blocks just like they never happened. Any nodes not enforcing it, if there are any, will play along so long as there is more hashpower mining the invalid blocks. Of course, the miners making invalid blocks are burying millions of dollars a minute in power to make “blocks” that pretty much only their own nodes will accept, so they’ll rapidly go bankrupt.

This is the same deal for any nearly-universially deployed consensus rule. Segwit would only be different if it weren’t deployed everywhere but it (like almost all other rule additions made going all the way back to the rules satoshi added in 2010) didn’t get activated until an overwhelming majority of users, all major businesses, etc. were enforcing it.

Null

[THX 1138]

Relaying a new message:

If as I have posited in this thread, that Craig Wright succeeds in building a legacy BTC fork in private splitting his ~0.9 million BTC and depositing his free ~0.9 million Core airdrop tokens to exchanges so he can dump them for stable coins (e.g. USDT) before initiating the SegWit attack (which will crater the Core BTC price for the reasons already explained in this thread), then all the rest of us have a new problem to worry about that I did not think of before:

Resolving a long-standing question, the guidance says new cryptocurrencies created from a fork of an existing blockchain should be treated as “an ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received.”

In other words, tax liabilities will apply when the new cryptocurrencies are recorded on a blockchain – if a taxpayer actually has control over the coins and can spend them.

A23.  When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency.

A24.  If you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork […] You have received the cryptocurrency when you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of it, which is generally the date and time the airdrop is recorded on the distributed ledger.

So since the blockchain timestamps are the only record of relevance since we always have control over our private keys, this means when Core is forced to fork off from the legacy fork because of the SegWit donations which are a illegal in Core but legal in the legacy protocol, what happens is that Core appears to have forked at the moment Craig created the private legacy chain with said protocol violations which Core will not accept when he publicly releases the legacy fork. Yet Core is forking off from legacy, not vice versa because only legacy address hodlers get free airdropped Core tokens in addition to retaining their legacy tokens.

So think about what this means. I already explained upthread that if you hodl in Core addresses (i.e. those beginning with 3) then you will only have worth-less tokens and be unable to sell them after the attack begins for reasons I already detailed in this thread. But if you hold in legacy addresses (i.e. those beginning with 1) then you will retain the legacy BTC which will continue to appreciate in price probably headed to $1 million, but you will also receive a free air-drop of the worth-less Core tokens.

But the problem for legacy address hodlers is that the IRS will presume the value of the Core tokens when you received them was before the SegWit attack began, thus you will owe income tax on the full value of the Core tokens before they plummeted in price and became worth-less! Ah the diabolical plan of the powers-that-be to destroy us becomes more clear. They will jack up the BTC price to perhaps $100k before the May 2020 halving, then we will all owe income (not capital gains!) taxes on that amount even we can’t sell any more.

They are planning to burn our fingertips up to our armpits. Clever bastards!

Other governments will likely follow the same “common sense” rules because all the governments are bankrupt and need more income from taxation.

There won’t be any Segwit spend to any attacks…

There are barely any nodes running satoshi’s old codebase, that code was buggy and vulnerable and couldn’t handle higher traffic, so they’re all gone.

It’s the same as breaking any other consensus rule — like allowing joe-blow to spend block 1’s coins with a key that isn’t the right one, or mining 1000 BTC in a block or whatever: all nodes enforcing the rule will ignore the invalid blocks just like they never happened. Any nodes not enforcing it, if there are any, will play along so long as there is more hashpower mining the invalid blocks. Of course, the miners making invalid blocks are burying millions of dollars a minute in power to make “blocks” that pretty much only their own nodes will accept, so they’ll rapidly go bankrupt.

This is the same deal for any nearly-universially deployed consensus rule. Segwit would only be different if it weren’t deployed everywhere but it (like almost all other rule additions made going all the way back to the rules satoshi added in 2010) didn’t get activated until an overwhelming majority of users, all major businesses, etc. were enforcing it.

Read the thread to correct your myopia. All of your incorrect points were already refuted numerous times. I am not going to repeat it all again, just because you are too lazy or incapable of assimilating the logic in the thread.

[Last of the V8s]

There won’t be any Segwit spend to any attacks…

~snipsnip~

Null

Null? what kind of name is that? my guess is nutella

[Illidan19]

Why not split work and anxiety more evenly? All I'm saying is 100 percent to anxious rants trying to understand CW's potential scam plan (or anything else for that matter) seems like a poor strategy, when you could be building something instead. 

[jbreher]

According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

[THX 1138]

Relaying a follow-up message:

According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

When the Core chain forks off by refusing to accept the legacy blocks which donate SegWit UTXO to the miners[1], then those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses will have received a free air-drop of Core shitcoins at the moment of the timestamp of offending legacy blocks. The hodler of legacy or Core address BTC has no choice and automatically then hodls a private/public key pair which is separately in the UTXO of both the legacy and Core forks. And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack” (not actually an attack but as I explained in detail in this thread and (links to) other threads linked from this thread, rather it’s a “poison pill” self-defense economic, Schelling point, Nash equilibrium game theory of proof-of-work that prevents a proliferation of competing mutated hard/soft forks, which would otherwise dilute value via supply inflation and contentious politics/opinion).

Thus the huge problem for those who hodl in legacy or Core addresses is that we will receive the free airdrop of Core shitcoins whether we like it or not. And we will receive them as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain (which the new IRS “common (non)sense” guidance designates for timing) when the market value of these soon-to-be-worthless Core tokens are still at whatever nosebleed BTC price the miners decide to run the price up to before the SegWit attack begins (posited and warned to begin at the May 14, 2020 halving). But as legacy address hodlers we will not be able to split our legacy and Core tokens until Craig has published his initially private legacy chain with the offending blocks, and thus by the time we can actually sell our Core shitcoins separately from our legacy BTC, the price of Core shitcoins will be essentially ~$0, because Craig will have dumped all this Core tokens on the exchanges (after splitting them from his legacy BTC on his initially private legacy chain) and the miners will begin jumping en masse from the Core chain to the recently published legacy chain thus driving the hashrate on the Core chain down severely meaning each new Core chain block will not be found for up to perhaps a week. So we will not be able to sell our Core shitcoins because they will be essentially worthless at that juncture, but yet the IRS will expect us to pay income tax on the full value of the Core shitcoins at the time of the fork as recorded by the timestamp on the blockchain when the price will still skyhigh before the attack began.

And the Core address hodlers are even more fucked than legacy address hodlers because their BTC on the legacy chain is “anyone can spend” (because P2SH is unrecognized by the legacy protocol) and will taken by legacy miners as donations to fund the readoption of the legacy protocol and forcing the Core shitcoin to fork-off. So Core address hodlers will owe the nosebleed high income tax, but will only hodl worth-less Core tokens and no valuable legacy BTC tokens. So how will they pay their huge tax bill? They are fucked.

On top of this, the posited attack will likely bankrupt most of the exchanges. And because of the attack, all exchange activity even on OTC markets might be locked up. So we will owe taxes but can’t even sell any of our legacy BTC to pay the taxes. And P2P transactions will virtually impossible for most of us because:

[…]

Also keep in the mind that of the ~10 million BTC for which the private keys have not been lost, about ~7 million of them (last time I checked) are stored in SegWit addresses which will be donated to the legacy miners in 2020 if the SegWit attack occurs (which I think will be the event that drives the price of the legacy Bitcoin skyhigh). Thus the block reward can be perhaps orders-of-magnitude higher than normally, which as I say may facilitate mining with GPUs again until all of the SegWit donations have been taken (only so many can fit in each block).

Which btw, means that while the SegWit attack is ongoing, the transaction fee attached to your legacy Bitcoin transaction must be greater than the value of the SegWit donations that can be taken instead of including your transaction in a block. Which is why mostly none of us will be able to sell Bitcoin at the $1+ million price in 2020. By the time we are able to get our transaction included in the blockchain (2022?), the likelihood is much greater for us being walled off from doing so by the governments’ automatic nosebleed high income tax on obligatory airdropped Core tokens, capital controls, blockchain blacklists to be enforced by miners, proof-of-source-of-funds, KYC, AML, etc...

[…]

You see the diabolical powers-that-be will run the BTC up to some very high price before the halving and SegWit attack fork-off, perhaps $30 – 100k. This is going to shock many people who will be unprepared because they ignored these warnings. If they hodl Core addresses and do not sell, they lose all the value. If they hodl legacy addresses, they will end up in a tax and liquidity nightmare if they do not sell at this high price before the halving. But most people will not sell because they will think the price is going much higher after the halving. This diabolical plan is so clever.

[1] Again Core is forking off, not vice versa, because legacy address hodlers automatically receive a free airdrop of Core tokens at the posited event, but Core address hodlers only retain their Core tokens and lose their legacy BTC which will be donated to the miners.

Meanwhile in other news:[/size]

The sheet, prefaced by a warning that it’s only a draft and not an actual document for filing taxes, asks at the top:

“At any time during 2019, did you receive, sell, send, exchange, or otherwise acquire any financial interest in any virtual currency?”

The main parts of the form, “Additional Income” and “Adjustments to Income,” both appear below this question.

“Taxpayers who file Schedule 1 to report income or adjustments to income that can’t be entered directly on Form 1040 should check the appropriate box to answer the virtual currency question. Taxpayers do not need to file Schedule 1 if their answer to this question is NO and they do not have to file Schedule 1 for any other purpose,” the IRS said

And in other news Craig Wright explains/claims that Bitcoin’s miners will end up seizing BTC on behalf of coordinated government requests.

Approximately every 4 years the reward that miners receive for finding a block, halves. This event is referred to as the “Bitcoin halving” and was hardcoded by Satoshi Nakamoto into the Bitcoin protocol to enforce its deflationary monetary policy.

[…]

What will the Bitcoin price be at the halving?

[…]

This video provides the exact price range to expect at the halving and looks at the possible height of the bull market following.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKHI_-SIcDU

You mentioned in your video that some people think the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the coming May 14, 2020 halving. I’m one of the proponents of the theory that the BTC price will reach a new ATH before the May 14, 2020 halving event.

A fundamental causation for my posited re-acceleration hypothesis is because I have analyzed the possibility that the legacy Bitcoin protocol is being “readopted” (analogous to the moonshot in the BTC price when legacy was first adopted in before 2013 and misdirection of adoption onto the impostor Core “soft fork” protocol) as warned by the powers-that-be. And I find evidence of this posited BTC price re-acceleration in the charts and also in the recent actions of some whales (c.f. also the Trilema.com/Dao attacker and what Bakkt did). All of the cryptocosm value will be refocused into the legacy Bitcoin with the coming “poison pill” game theory defense mechanism of the one proof-of-work chain to rule them all.

Below I will discuss some of the evidence of re-acceleration I find in the charts. Click the images to go to their source.

Readers may also be interested in my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

Let’s start with your chart comparing the 4 year period prior to each of the 2 prior halving events and the upcoming Bitcoin halving event (3 cases total). Note the prior ATH of the current (i.e. top-most on your chart) case was nearer to the start of the four year period analogous to the prior (i.e. middle on your chart) case. Whereas, the final “over the cliff” drop to the bottom and the sudden and steep (i.e. more accelerated both in time and price) out that of that bottom for the current case is more similar to the first (i.e. bottom-most on your chart) case. Also notice for first (i.e. bottom-most) case that the rise in the price before the halving was not as great as for the prior (i.e. middle) case, but the rise after the halving was much more accelerated (both in time and price) for the first (i.e. bottom-most) case as compared to the prior (i.e. middle) case. Thus the BTC price rise after the halving for the current case should be more accelerated than the prior case:



Next let’s refer to your chart comparing the level of the price at each subsequent halving event and the length of the “reaccumulation” (sic) phase before each halving event. Note that the prior (i.e. middle on this chart) case had both a higher price at and longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event than the first (i.e. left-most on this chart) case. Given an even longer “reaccumulation” before its succeeding halving event for current (i.e. right-most on this chart) case compared to the prior case, the BTC price should be even higher before and right at the coming May 14, 2020 halving as compared to the prior case:



Let’s refer to the stock-to-flows (aka S/F) model below to see that the BTC price at the halving event in the prior case was 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price:



How much higher than the prior case should the price be at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event? Note in the charts below that the BTC price in your “accumulation” and “expansion” phases for the prior case were either below (at the same timing before the halving given by similar shade of green color) or at best only up to the S/F model price:







Whereas, the current case has already achieved 1.6 times higher than the S/F model price in this “accumulation” and “expansion” phase:



Thus we should expect the BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event to be accelerated 1.6 × 1.6 = 2.6 times the ~$8800 S/F model price at the coming halving event. Additionally the current case has even more “reaccumulation” time than the prior case to build an even higher BTC price at the coming May 14, 2020 halving event. Thus the price at the coming halving event could be 3 ­– 4 times $8800 or roughly $26 – $35k. Additionally, I’m positing double of (i.e. two times) those prices projections at the halving due to third-order derivative (i.e. the rate of increase in the acceleration) mathematical effects which I don’t want to attempt to explain now.

Another reason the BTC price can front run the S/F model price rise at the halving is because PlanB recently unveiled the model.

Note I think the anonymous PlanB might be an agent (or an unwitting tool) of the bastard global elite who created Bitcoin are organizing the SegWit attack. PlanB (or someone at Twitter and Medium) banned and censored me from commenting on his Twitter and Medium blogs because I was getting too close to revealing these truths. I posit he has released this model to cause the market to front run the model and thus help achieve their goal of a nosebleed, moonshot BTC before the halving so that the hashrate difficulty will be so high when they initiate the SegWit donations attack that the Core protocol fork-off chain will become so slow that perhaps only a new block found every week or month. To drive the Core protocol fork-off to ~$0 price and complete their objective of surreptitiously concentrating most of the BTC in their own hands.

Also your projection for the ATH price after the coming halving is much, much too low. As I explained above, there is a reacceleration tweening between the prior and first cases. In those cases, the ATH price reached 3 and 10 times the S/F model price. Given the S/F model price will be $104k in 2021, the peak ATH should be at least $300k – $1 million. And there is a front running acceleration, so that peak ATH price could be attained as early as the end of 2020 so that McAfee doesn’t have to eat his dick. C.f. also my blog: McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

The current state of the RSI is indicating a sudden rise in the price is imminent analogous to 2013 (not 2017) for the reasons I explained above:

https://twitter.com/davthewave/status/1195128691099160576

I thus expect the rise in the BTC price to mimic the entire year of 2013 from this point forward. A moonshot rise pre-halving, then a dip with the SegWit attack killing Core and focusing the cryptocosm on legacy Bitcoin, then legacy Bitcoin rising above $300k before the end of 2020.

I really thought that once the price had moved into late 4 figures and 5 figures the percentages of the moves would be radically lower. People would be excited by a couple of hundred bucks. Yet it can still lose or gain 30-40% in a single day just as it could when it was 2 figures.

I don't know what that means, it doesn't seem healthy to me, but the possibility for truly barking moves is still more than alive and kicking.

If we think in terms of market cap and just how thin these markets are then it still doesn't really require huge sums to make giant moves. I expected it to be past that by now but it hasn't changed. It looks like it needs another monstrous move up before it does start to behave in a less shitcoiny manner and even then it might need another one.

Plausible reasons:

• Refer to my above readoption and thus reacceleration theory (which I know you think is loony and conspiratorial).
• The IRS ruled that spending any amount of digital virtual currency is a taxable event, thus hopeless for Bitcoin being adopted more as a currency.
• Bitcoin is being prepped as a 666 global reserve currency, to be used by $billionaires only. The coming SegWit attack will kickoff and destroy all the minions who think they own some cryptocurrency but will soon find out they do not.
• "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." (i.e. acceleration or second derivatives):
  
  https://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-09-15/albert-bartlett-on-message-about-exponential-growth-to-the-end/
  
  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI1C9DyIi_8
  
  With exponential growth, the lily pond can be 50% covered on the 29th day and on the morning of the 30th day, 100% covered with lilies.
  
  Just because we can’t “see” visually the fact that the price is about to soon obviously front run the halving, does not mean the front running isn’t glaringly obvious mathematically. The front running is very well developed already. Most of you just can’t “see” it so glaringly yet because your eyes are not visualizing math.

For the price objectives and timing over the next months until the Bitcoin halving event, I recently wrote in private email several days ago before the drop below $8600 and before LTC had dropped below $60:

IMPORTANT. MAKE SURE YOU READ THIS.

Strangely the fractal pattern at the current juncture for LTC/USD could be correlated to either early to mid Feb 2019 or Jan 10 2019. It appears LTC may be accelerating in time (but not in proportional price) compared to the prior fractal pattern earlier this year. So perhaps LTC will not decline below $60 again in 2019.

Whereas, BTC appears to not be accelerating in time but is accelerating in proportional price.

By proportional price, I mean compare the price rises from the prior $22 and $3102 bottoms as the difference in price from the bottom divided by the price drop from the cliff edge at $56 and $6550.

The calculation shows that LTC is 93% and BTC is 260% (2.6X) of the proportional price rises thus far compared to the prior fractal.

Thus I compute projected prices for LTC of $82, $116, and $158. And for BTC  three consecutive monthly highs of $13k, $21k, and $32k.

But those prices do not have to occur at the same time, especially not the $82.

It seems the only way to fulfill the 0.01 LTC/BTC target is for LTC/USD to hit $82 while BTC/USD drops to $8200. Then the $116 can occur with a rocket shot in BTC to $13k. I was expecting that rocket shot at start of February, but everything may be accelerating in time.

Recently @infofront cited a Twitter post that said the LTC miners are preparing to disconnect their machines and pumping the LTC price so they can get out and liquidate their mining equipment (and LTC) at the best prices. Apparently they expect BTC dominance to return soon and they want to cash out.

BTC/USD may decline to $8200 before end of November with LTC rising to $82 as the very short altcoin season bleeds BTC for a month only. Then BTC slowly rising to $9600 before end of 2019. Then a rocket shot to $13k on Armstrong’s ECM turn date in the start of January. With LTC rising to $116. Then $158 and $21k in February. In March BTC hits $32k and LTC and all altcoins are declining. In April BTC goes supernova to $50+k. My target for a spike high was $78k.

Let’s revisit what may end up being a very, very important blog, perhaps even more important than Plan B’s stock-to-flows model:

https://medium.com/@positivecrypto/the-golden-ratio-multiplier-c2567401e12a

Focus on this chart:



Interestingly at the recent $13.8k high, the ratio to the 350 DMA was 2.4. That places it between the red and purple lines. Which thus corresponds to a tweening between the peaks in Q3 2012 and Q3 2013. Whereas the corresponding peak in 2015 commensurately before the halving was only up to the green line, so current fractal pattern is not corresponding to the 5 multiplier. And if we do get a rocket shot into the May (actually late April) 2020 halving, then the chart is going to look very fractally similar to the 2013 rocket shot.

So this means (as I had posited previously) that the multiplier for the coming peak in late April 2020 should be between 8 and 13. The 350 DMA is currently $7k and will rise to greater than $10k. Even if the multiplier does decline to 3 as that blog posits, that is still going to be in excess of $30k for the peak. So perhaps my $32k will be the peak and perhaps the rocket shot to $13k will not begin until February 2020.

However, I assert that the legacy Bitcoin is being readopted, which will cause a stampede effect and thus a reversion to the 8 or perhaps 10 multiplier. Again 8 would place it near to my $78k expectation.

Also the above linked Medium blog gives a very useful metric for timing the ATH, when the 111 DMA crossed over 2 multiplied by the 350 DMA. We should remember to watch for that. So estimating now roughly when the 3.5 month average price is higher than somewhere above $20+k. So if we take my 3 consecutive month price estimates $13k, $21k, and $32k and presuming some acceleration along the way to average is weighted more towards the lower prices. Also those are peak prices, with dips in between. And the 350 DMA is likely to be higher than $10k. So a quick moon shot to $50+k in April after a dip from $32k in March, is within the realm of mathematical possibility.

$32k is the minimum for the ATH before May 2020, presuming my thesis is correct that the price will be pumped in advance of a posited SegWit attack at the halving.

Interestingly the 350 DMA should be ~8+k by early January, so a 1.6 multiplier would be $13k. By February should be $8.5+k thus 2 to 2.4 multiplier provides my $21k target (remember the tweening). By March $9 – $10k, so the 3 – 4 multiplier will provide my $32k target.

My current scenario after studying carefully the fractal pattern correlation. The current U-shaped correction appears to be roughly 71% of the duration of the prior one earlier this year.

BTC should bottom on this current retracement below $8500 by Nov. 24. The ideal target is $8200. LTC will retrace to somewhere between $57 and $60.

On ~Nov 24, a spike up for LTC and BTC to ~$70 and ~$8700. Then a decline over next several days to $60 – $64 and $8 – $8.4k. Then another spike up on ~Dec. 5 to ~$75 and $9.7k. Then a decline over next couple of days to ~$65 and ~$8.5k. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up for LTC coupled with a slow rise for BTC to ~$80 and $8.7k. Then slow rise by ~Dec. 22 to ~$83 and $8.9k.

Thus I see LTC/BTC reaching only a maximum of 0.0093, although perhaps 0.0098 is possible on some intraday spike divergence for LTC and BTC. I would probably sell LTC at $80 and thus 0.0092 is likely the best I could achieve. Given an entry at 0.0069, that would be a 33% gain in BTC, if repurchasing BTC immediately after selling LTC. Those who entered at 0.006 might get a 50% gain in BTC if they time it perfectly.

Another strategy might be to sell maybe half at $75 and then if LTC drops to $65 repurchase for a 15% gain, else (if LTC does not drop) purchase BTC for ~$8.5k (because it seems BTC must drop otherwise it can’t rise to $8.7k), so that is still a 27% gain in BTC is purchased LTC when LTC/BTC was 0.0069.

Frankly only a 33% potential gain (relative to BTC) is not all that incredibly enticing given the risk of the volatility of LTC. Timing may be end up elusive.

GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS-GRS

I did the same calculations for GRS and it’s about 3X leveraged in price compared to the prior fractal earlier this year. On ~Nov 24, GRS should rise to ~0.27 which if BTC is $8700, then GRS/BTC will be 0.000031. Then by ~Dec. 13 a spike up ~$0.48, and thus GRS/BTC 0.000055. So I think GRS/BTC has better leverage and can double your BTC, but you must have your sell limit orders waiting because the spikes can be completed in a couple of hours sometimes. A strategy would be to sell maybe half at $0.27 and attempt to reload at $0.23 or purchase BTC at $8700.

In this scenario, the rocket shot is timed perfectly with Armstrong’s monumental ECM turn date, so ~Jan 1, 2020, a rocket shot to ~$116 and ~$12.5k. That will be the last chance to trade LTC for BTC. BTC may have an intraday (or next day) spike low of $11k. So if you sold at say $110 and repurchased $11.5k, that would be 0.096, thus increasing potential BTC gains to 40% (if purchased when LTC/BTC is 0.0069) or 65% if entered when LTC/BTC was 0.006. But that’s going to be some chaotic timing. Hope the exchanges don’t get slammed.

In this scenario, during the rest of January LTC will decline to ~$86 and BTC will oscillate but reach a peak of $13k. I wonder if we will get another flash crash in late January to $10k this time, mimicking the flash crash in April 2019.

In this timing scenario, before Feb 12 (2020), BTC will spike up again to $21k. Within a week a decline to perhaps ~$17.3k. Then another rocket shot to ~$32k by ~March 2.

The market would be somewhat confused at this point because the ATH would have been significantly exceeded well before the halving. Thus I would expect some sort of deeper and slightly longer correction. Maybe back to $21k again to throw many off the train who are looking to repurchase below the 2017 $20k ATH before the halving currently targeted for May 14:

https://www.bitcoinblockhalf.com/

That and including the uncertainty about whether the price will indeed go higher than ~$32k before any SegWit attack is why I will probably take all the cash I am going to need at $32k, then perhaps repurchase half of what I sold if the price drops to say $21k before the halving. Also I will be keeping my eye on the 111 DMA vs. twice the 350 DMA as mentioned in my prior email. Such an extended decline might be necessary to keep that 111 DMA from prematurely crossing down under twice the 350 DMA.

So then in April suddenly a moonshot to $50+k. Again my target is $78k but I will reaccess at that time after looking at all factors including where is the 350 DMA at that juncture.

It's just too exaggerated to give a random numbers while the market price today is under $9,000.

McAfee’s Dick Math may be based on point-set topology. Also re-read the lengthy post I made in this thread.

The legacy BTC price is likely going to $1 million in 2020, but I posit the official Bitcoin Core (which is actually an impostor) is going towards ~$0 after the SegWit “anyone can spend” donations to the miners attack at the May 2020 halving event if Craig Wright fulfills his Long-term advance notice. Craig is indeed a fake Satoshi and his BSV is probably a red-herring, but his warning is probably reality. Read the linked threads entirely to learn why.

55k is definitely not too high if you look at the history of Bitcoin. Even 100k is not too high.
In 2017 we went from 900 to 20k in a year. When we broke previous ATH we went times 20! Breaking 20k would take us to 200k if it happens again. I know we can't compare because it takes a lot more money to reach those levels but when we were below 1 k people were talking about the 2013 bull market and saying the same thing that we went from 300 to 1000 in a month but a 3x rise from ATH won't happen because it's a lot of money. Do you even remember today what people were saying when we were going through 3k? No? I don't remember it too because it was so fast.

Everyone forgets, incorrectly thinks Bitcoin’s price is decelerating, and gets lulled to sleep. Here is a mathematical model of what you are referring to:

McAfee’s Dick Math: illuminating Bitcoin’s ACCELERATING price

i believe that the more we move forward as the market size grows, the less drastic the big swings are going to be. meaning both rises and falls are going to happen in a more reasonable percentages. it is about more adoption and more packed order books that makes it so that when a big buy or a sell take place the price wouldn't jump up or down 30%!
so with that logic this upcoming rally price should go up to about $300k since last time price went up from $150 (the bottom) to $19900 which is 13166%. with the current bottom being $3200 that means reaching $424,512 which if it becomes smaller we should reach $300k instead

Everyone seems to think Bitcoin is decelerating, but it’s actually accelerating. My theory as to why is because of the upcoming readoption of legacy Bitcoin and the destruction of the Bitcoin Core imposter soft-fork, thus focusing wealth as most people are kicked off of Bitcoin and their BTC is donated to the miners. Whales never sell, thus the liquid float will decrease. Everyone seems to think Bitcoin needs to scale transaction volume, but I posit that was never the intended purpose of Bitcoin when the global elite created it.

My (and apparently McAfee’s) theory is you are being deceived by mismatching your comparisons of peaks from different topological sets. See the above link to McAfee’s Dick Math.

Your $300k is also my lowest level target for 2020. But $1+ million may be more likely if you believe the (unpublished) math McAfee claims.

in 2012 and 2016 halving, people still put a lot of doubts in bitcoin saying bitcoin will have zero value, majority did not believe that bitcoin will be worthy in the future and then the price skyrocketed, proven they all wrong.
nowadays majority so over confident about the upcoming bitcoin halving making speculation it will worth 5 to 20times from the current price , guess what should happen? the price fall down , prove the majority wrong?

Instead I posit that everyone will be destroyed by the SegWit attack at the halving and then the price will go much, much higher than anyone expects. But this attack is going to hoist huge income taxes on everyone due to the free airdrop of the Core tokens when it is forced to hard fork-off.

The majority is always wrong, but never in exactly the same way. New tricks are the up the sleeves of our slave masters who created the 666 Bitcoin.

[OROBTC]

...

Address Types of BTC Block Winners (Blocks 604143 – 604242, n = 100)


(Please excuse poor formatting, I'll try another way in another post soon)
                                        
Pool Name                 Address               Blocks Won      

F2Pool                    1KFHE7...          21              
BTC.com                    bc1q18...          15              
AntPool                    12dRug...          12              
Poolin “1” wallet                 1MUz4V...          11              
Poolin “3” wallet                 3HqH1q...            6      
SlushPool                         11CK6K...            6              
ViaBTC                    18cBEM...            5            
Unknown “1” (THash & 58COIN)   147SwR...            4                 
Unknown “4.1” (Huobi)      1C81BG...            4
Unknown “4.2” (Huobi)      1MvYAS...            2
Unknown “5” (okpool.top)      3DNPFX...            3
Unknown “6”                  3QLeXx...            3
Unknown “2” (Spiderpool)      38u1sr...            2
Unknown “7” (bytepool)      39m5Wv...            2
Unknown “3” (BitFury)      3KF9nX...            2              
BTC.TOP                    1Hz96k...            1              
Unknown “8”                 14eygc...            1

Total:                                   100 blocks won


Data looks better here at this Google Drive Link:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1pLWVImy9E8O9A3yY4RcwkL-HZeiAFTcSudu8oTpk90I/edit?usp=sharing


Notes:

1.   Information on some “Unknowns” from blockchair.com (OP-RETURN info?, from blockchair.com)
2.   There are SIX unique SegWit (addresses) and ONE SegWit Native (address) above, addresses in purple
3.   SegWit addresses (both types) won 33% of the 100 blocks examined
4.   Note Poolin and Huobi have different addresses winning blocks…
5.   Percent blocks won last 24 hours do not add to 100%, probably due to different block winners…
6.   Data from blockchain.info and blockchair.com, and are blocks won approx. midday 17 Nov 2019 (ET)
7.   It might be worthwhile to see if any of the SegWit addresses of miners change as May 2020 gets closer…


17 Nov 2019

[jbreher]

According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

I know perfectly well how a hardfork airdrop works, tyvm.

I'm amazed you are seemingly relying upon colloquial definitions of words, in the context where the IRS has very specifically defined them. Have you read the actual ruling? https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rr-19-24.pdf

"A hard fork occurs when a cryptocurrency undergoes a protocol change resulting in a permanent diversion from the legacy distributed ledger.  This may result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger.  If your cryptocurrency went through a hard fork, but you did not receive any new cryptocurrency, whether through an airdrop (a distribution of cryptocurrency to multiple taxpayers’ distributed ledger addresses) or some other kind of transfer, you don’t have taxable income." (from the associated IRS FAQ, emphasis added)

[THX 1138]

Relaying another message:

3.   SegWit addresses (both types) won 33% of the 100 blocks examined

This data is rather meaningless, because:

1. The miners which unbeknownst to us at this time will ultimately be aligned with Craig Wright at the initial stage of the warned SegWit donations taking attack, will be able to steal their SegWit tokens back to themselves.

2. Miners typically sell BTC to buy more mining equipment and pay electric bills, so they do not plan to be hodling much BTC at any given time (of a posited attack).

According to new IRS rulemaking, coins are received when they are manifest on the blockchain. Don’t move your coins to the new blockchain, ergo you have not received them, ergo no tax due.

Unless of course you want to claim them. That’s a problem of your own making.

I’m amazed that you don’t comprehend how a hard fork airdrop works.

I know perfectly well how a hardfork airdrop works, tyvm.

I'm amazed you are seemingly relying upon colloquial definitions of words, in the context where the IRS has very specifically defined them. Have you read the actual ruling? https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/rr-19-24.pdf

"A hard fork occurs when a cryptocurrency undergoes a protocol change resulting in a permanent diversion from the legacy distributed ledger.  This may result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger.  If your cryptocurrency went through a hard fork, but you did not receive any new cryptocurrency, whether through an airdrop (a distribution of cryptocurrency to multiple taxpayers’ distributed ledger addresses) or some other kind of transfer, you don’t have taxable income." (from the associated IRS FAQ, emphasis added)

The IRS clearly states the conditions by which we will have been deemed to have received the airdrop. The timing is when the hard fork occurs as recorded on the blockchain. A hard fork duplicates the UTXO into two orthogonal ledgers. And since you already hodl the private key that can sign for those tokens on both of the said orthogonal ledgers (instantly after the fork), then you have instantly and automatically received the new cryptocurrency due to the hard fork without any action required on your part. Sorry man, but you’re fucked. The powers-that-be are going to destroy you and take all your crypto wealth. Prepare yourself to live in poverty along with everyone else.

Resolving a long-standing question, the guidance says new cryptocurrencies created from a fork of an existing blockchain should be treated as “an ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received.”

In other words, tax liabilities will apply when the new cryptocurrencies are recorded on a blockchain – if a taxpayer actually has control over the coins and can spend them.

A23.  When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency.

A24.  If you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork […] You have received the cryptocurrency when you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of it, which is generally the date and time the airdrop is recorded on the distributed ledger.

Here follows a tax expert explains it to you like you are 5 years old:

“One unfortunate consequence of this guidance is that third parties can now create tax reporting obligations for you by simply forking a network whose coins you own, or foisting on you an unwanted airdrop.”

Individuals would be assessed income when they receive the asset, Hinkes said.

“Receipt is defined by ‘dominion and control’ … so it’s ability to transfer, sell, exchange or dispose of the asset according to this guidance,” he said. “The fear is that someone maliciously airdrops and tags you with a giant liability. But [this] fear is a bit oversold because you would only be liable for new income based on the fair market value of the asset when received, and most forks don’t start out with a high valuation.”

Phillips said it was possible that an individual with an ethereum wallet, for example, could receive an ERC-20 token from an airdrop without realizing it. Depending on how the token’s value fluctuates, this may result in them having to pay income tax on an asset that was worth more when they received it than when they sell the asset.

“This can happen when coins hit a high water mark of price discovery right after the airdrop event and the heavy selling could sink the price to a level from which is never recovers,” he said.

Here it is quoted directly from the new IRS guidance:

A hard fork is unique to distributed ledger technology and occurs when a
cryptocurrency on a distributed ledger undergoes a protocol change resulting in a
permanent diversion from the legacy or existing distributed ledger. A hard fork may
result in the creation of a new cryptocurrency on a new distributed ledger in addition to
the legacy cryptocurrency on the legacy distributed ledger. Following a hard fork,
transactions involving the new cryptocurrency are recorded on the new distributed
ledger and transactions involving the legacy cryptocurrency continue to be recorded on
the legacy distributed ledger.

An airdrop is a means of distributing units of a cryptocurrency to the distributed
ledger addresses of multiple taxpayers. A hard fork followed by an airdrop results in the
distribution of units of the new cryptocurrency to addresses containing the legacy
cryptocurrency. However, a hard fork is not always followed by an airdrop.
Cryptocurrency from an airdrop generally is received on the date and at the time
it is recorded on the distributed ledger. However, a taxpayer may constructively receive
cryptocurrency prior to the airdrop being recorded on the distributed ledger. A taxpayer
does not have receipt of cryptocurrency when the airdrop is recorded on the distributed
ledger if the taxpayer is not able to exercise dominion and control over the
cryptocurrency. For example, a taxpayer does not have dominion and control if the
address to which the cryptocurrency is airdropped is contained in a wallet managed
through a cryptocurrency exchange and the cryptocurrency exchange does not support
the newly-created cryptocurrency such that the airdropped cryptocurrency is not
immediately credited to the taxpayer’s account at the cryptocurrency exchange. If the
taxpayer later acquires the ability to transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the
cryptocurrency, the taxpayer is treated as receiving the cryptocurrency at that time.

Possessing the private key to sign for the new duplicated, airdropped tokens is precisely “dominion and control”.

Come on man. I hope you can read.

The case the IRS is referring to when tokens are not airdropped is when the new forked ledger does not (or not immediately) duplicate all of the UTXO of the legacy ledger. IOW, if the new fork’s protocol does not allow for your private key “dominion and control” then you would not have received airdropped tokens into your private/public key “account”. Clearly that exception will not be the case with the coming hard fork-off of Core when the legacy miners violate the Core protocol by taking the SegWit tokens as ‘anyone can spend” donations. Also that exception was not the case when BCH forked off from Bitcoin, nor when BSV forked off from BCH. All of these hard forks have been instant and automatic airdrops with income tax accrued to all of us fools.

Many of us already have tax obligations that we have thusly not correctly reported yet. The future penalties and fees are accumulating now as we speak.

[Elwar]

And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack”

Upon receipt of any forked coin the forked coin is initially valued at zero. You assume that you have been gifted a zero value token. When you finally sell or exchange that token for something of value you then compare the gifted value (zero) with the value of what you receive upon exchange/sale and you then pay capital gains at that time.

It is akin to receiving a baseball card of little to no value as a gift. But then after 10 years that baseball card is now worth $1 million. You must now pay capital gains on $1 million worth of gains. If you hold that baseball card until your dying days, even though it has a lot of value, you would never need to pay any tax on it.

[THX 1138]

Relaying another message:

And thus according to the IRS, those who automatically received this diabolical “free” airdrop owe income tax at the market value on the free Core tokens airdrop at the time of the said timestamp. The market value will be whatever nosebleed BTC price before Craig starts his posited (and warned) SegWit donations “attack”

Upon receipt of any forked coin the forked coin is initially valued at zero. You assume that you have been gifted a zero value token. When you finally sell or exchange that token for something of value you then compare the gifted value (zero) with the value of what you receive upon exchange/sale and you then pay capital gains at that time.

It is akin to receiving a baseball card of little to no value as a gift. But then after 10 years that baseball card is now worth $1 million. You must now pay capital gains on $1 million worth of gains. If you hold that baseball card until your dying days, even though it has a lot of value, you would never need to pay any tax on it.

A tax expert disagrees with your opinion:

“This can happen when coins hit a high water mark of price discovery right after the airdrop event and the heavy selling could sink the price to a level from which is never recovers,” he said.

The IRS says the “fair market value” at the time of the fork event as recorded on the blockchain:

Q23.  How do I calculate my income from cryptocurrency I received following a hard fork?
 
A23.  When you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, you will have ordinary income equal to the fair market value of the new cryptocurrency when it is received, which is when the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, provided you have dominion and control over the cryptocurrency so that you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of the cryptocurrency.

[…]

A24.  If you receive cryptocurrency from an airdrop following a hard fork, your basis in that cryptocurrency is equal to […] the fair market value of the cryptocurrency when you received it.  You have received the cryptocurrency when you can transfer, sell, exchange, or otherwise dispose of it, which is generally the date and time the airdrop is recorded on the distributed ledger.

When a taxpayer receives property that is not purchased, unless otherwise provided in the Code, the taxpayer’s basis in the property received is determined by reference to the amount included in gross income, which is the fair
market value of the property when the property is received.

The IRS says that fair market value is the published price on indices aka basket of exchange prices:

A26.  If you receive cryptocurrency in a peer-to-peer transaction or some other transaction not facilitated by a cryptocurrency exchange, the fair market value of the cryptocurrency is determined as of the date and time the transaction is recorded on the distributed ledger, or would have been recorded on the ledger if it had been an on-chain transaction.  The IRS will accept as evidence of fair market value the value as determined by a cryptocurrency or blockchain explorer that analyzes worldwide indices of a cryptocurrency and calculates the value of the cryptocurrency at an exact date and time.  If you do not use an explorer value, you must establish that the value you used is an accurate representation of the cryptocurrency’s fair market value.

The IRS says that if there’s no exchange markets for the token, then the reasonable fair market value applies:

Q27.  I received cryptocurrency that does not have a published value in exchange for property or services.  How do I determine the cryptocurrency’s fair market value?
 
A27.  When you receive cryptocurrency in exchange for property or services, and that cryptocurrency is not traded on any cryptocurrency exchange and does not have a published value, then the fair market value of the cryptocurrency received is equal to the fair market value of the property or services exchanged for the cryptocurrency when the transaction occurs.

There has been no major forked airdrop token that was trading at $0 the instant it appeared on an exchange. So the IRS will never agree that the fair market value is $0. When BCH forked off from Bitcoin, the value of BCH was the first exchange prices recorded for the token.

When Core forks off from Bitcoin, then since Bitcoin Core is currently the official Bitcoin, then the exchange price of BTC will apply at the moment of the fork. This is likely why the powers-that-be which created Bitcoin and this diabolical 666 plan for it, also funded Blockstream. You go research the banksters who provided the funding for Blockstream aka Core. Educate yourself son.

[Elwar]

The airdrop is akin to a "gift". The IRS tends to hold the gift giver responsible for paying any tax owed. So if Craig Wright forks Bitcoin in such a way that it initially has value upon being airdropped, he will be liable for tax payments to the IRS of the sum of all bitcoins in existence times the price.

Who pays the gift tax? The donor is generally responsible for paying the gift tax.

So it's on him to hope that when he gifts the coins, they are worth zero.

[THX 1138]

Relaying the final reply:

The airdrop is akin to a "gift". The IRS tends to hold the gift giver responsible for paying any tax owed. So if Craig Wright forks Bitcoin in such a way that it initially has value upon being airdropped, he will be liable for tax payments to the IRS of the sum of all bitcoins in existence times the price.

Who pays the gift tax? The donor is generally responsible for paying the gift tax.

So it's on him to hope that when he gifts the coins, they are worth zero.

Incorrect theory. The IRS has already stated on their FAQ that the airdrops are not gifts and instead are income.

The reason is because there’s no donor to pay the gift tax. And there’s no individual discretion nor individual control involved in creating the airdrops. The blockchain which is making the gifts (via the miners who choose to mine the new protocol) is a decentralized entity. The creator of the protocol can’t force the miners to mine, and thus has no control over the assignment of the gifts. The individual miners have no control nor discretion over the rules of the protocol, they have to either mine it or not mine it collectively. Note in the case of proof-of-stake which can be provably shown to be controlled by a coordinated oligarchy, then indeed there would be individual control and thus it would be gift and that oligarchy would be liable for the gift tax!

It is explained this way:

Because they are legally required to give you the prizes you've won—if, of course, you're that lucky—just like your employer is legally required to give you your wages when you work for them. (There are exceptions if you voluntarily forfeit the prizes for some reason, and the taxes you would have to pay are in fact a common reason, but the basic idea is the same.) A gift implies the lack of legal obligation for the giver to have given you anything at all and they're doing it only because they're nice people or it's a special occasion like Christmas or your birthday.

And note that giving away the airdrops (or burning them to a non-spendable address):

One way you can get out of paying taxes on your game show winnings is by gifting them to friends and family members. According to IRS rules, you are eligible to gift up to $14,000 per year to as many individuals as you want.

Although you won’t be able to keep the money for yourself, it’s a great way to share your earnings with your family and avoid paying taxes on that portion of your game show winnings.

Will not absolve the income tax liability because the value of what you donate (by the time you can transfer the airdropped Core shitcoins you received) will be much lower by the time you can donate them and you may never be able to transfer them because as the attack begins Core blockchain will slow down to perhaps one new block every week or month thus backlogging the mempool and your transaction never getting into a block ever again:

You include the value of a prize won in your income. If you itemize deductions, you deduct the value of the prize won on Schedule A. Depending on the size of your prize and your other itemized deductions, you could wind up with zero net taxable income by donating a prize won to charity.

The evil powers-that-be who created Bitcoin and this trap thought it out very well. They closed all the means of escape.

[Elwar]

Another halving...another idiot proclaiming that at the halving the blocks will not be mined.

Even as shitty as the bcash startup was on the fork with blocks hardly ever being mined for the first month or so...the difficulty eventually adjusted and they have their small mining operation keeping things going.

See: November 2012 scare
See: July 2016 terror

[Fatoshi]

What is the solution for BTC holders? Should we sell to fiat at halving and then buy back into legacy BTC after a fork has happened? Is there any way around this issue IF it happened?