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Author Topic: Supply and demand curve analysis, why Bitcoin does or does not change price.  (Read 508 times)
Onetogo
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May 30, 2019, 03:21:48 PM
 #1

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.

https://i.ibb.co/n0FYkCC/btc2-5k.png
https://i.ibb.co/Ks1JNHB/btc5k.png

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May 30, 2019, 07:35:00 PM
 #2

The only thing is that it is very difficult to predict if a bullish movement will happen, because if suddenly a whale enters to buy Huh
 you do not have that included in the prediction.

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May 30, 2019, 09:26:24 PM
 #3

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.






I quote you so we can see the images, it seems like there has been a massive selloff in the last few hours, after hitting $9.100 bitcoins are now down on $8200
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May 30, 2019, 11:31:21 PM
 #4

Basing things in charts couldn't predict the future of Bitcoin.
The market s unpredictable and sudden changes are occuring without our control.
There are whales who could manipulate the prices in one move and there will be dumpers who will do panic selling so no matter how we predict things, prices will still remain unpredictable.

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May 31, 2019, 09:15:38 AM
 #5

Yes, guys, you are all very correct. It all depends on the big gamers.

But we can predict several things within some probability area.

1. The volume
2. Log return


If we have demand and supply analysis, then we can as well predict how the market will react if big players jump into the market. Not always, big buying causes the price to go up, because it all depends on market demand and supply.


If you will follow my thread, you will be able to see that sometimes (despite) large volume, prices do not go up or down in a drastic way.


Here is new chart:

Quote


See, the supply curve is different than yesterday. The slope is different, the value of the slope is bigger. It means suppliers are optimistic about Bitcoin price to go up, so they have a lower interest to sell it at the price, which was yesterday at the same time. The question is how demand will react.


Note the balances can change anytime.


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May 31, 2019, 09:43:03 AM
 #6

https://i.imgur.com/5knHDz9.png

Current mid-term mood is a fight for 10k USD. This is the psychological price. If demand increases at 10k and supply stays the same, we will have new high level prices. But I think this period won't last very long, because demand is very elastic bellow 10k.
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May 31, 2019, 10:02:34 AM
 #7

Yes, guys, you are all very correct. It all depends on the big gamers.

But we can predict several things within some probability area.

1. The volume
2. Log return


If we have demand and supply analysis, then we can as well predict how the market will react if big players jump into the market. Not always, big buying causes the price to go up, because it all depends on market demand and supply.


If you will follow my thread, you will be able to see that sometimes (despite) large volume, prices do not go up or down in a drastic way.


Here is new chart:

Quote


See, the supply curve is different than yesterday. The slope is different, the value of the slope is bigger. It means suppliers are optimistic about Bitcoin price to go up, so they have a lower interest to sell it at the price, which was yesterday at the same time. The question is how demand will react.


Note the balances can change anytime.



Will you consider about the halving of bitcoin next year will ont directly change the trader or seller and buyer's opnions about bitcoin?  As far as i know the effect that caused by the halving must have happened before it was even done. Just called that as a long term fundamental impact to the bitcoin.
With that news and the market will able to press the holders to keep their all of their bitcoin for a while.

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May 31, 2019, 10:07:19 AM
 #8

Sorry, I am not a native English speaker. Could you simplify your question, please?
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May 31, 2019, 11:20:04 AM
 #9

Your graph shows values derived from a specific market.. but you are not saying what market and where the data are sourced from. If this is information pulled from 1 or 2 specific exchanges from a specific region or country, then it is not applicable to a global market.

Bitcoin is bought and sold from exchanges the world over and also on OTC platforms, so to get a true reflection of the price and global supply and demand, you will have to source from a very wide variety of data sources.  Wink

You willing to share your source data for these graphs?  Huh

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May 31, 2019, 11:29:47 AM
 #10

It is really hard to predict the price movement of crypto ,
We couldn't really be sure what would happen next because of the huge volume,
People do what they want so we couldn't expect anything to be the same as what we think .

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May 31, 2019, 01:43:08 PM
 #11

Your graph shows values derived from a specific market.. but you are not saying what market and where the data are sourced from. If this is information pulled from 1 or 2 specific exchanges from a specific region or country, then it is not applicable to a global market.

Bitcoin is bought and sold from exchanges the world over and also on OTC platforms, so to get a true reflection of the price and global supply and demand, you will have to source from a very wide variety of data sources.  Wink

You willing to share your source data for these graphs?  Huh

Hi, sure it's grabbed from one of the biggest exchange. I am aware it's not completely relevant, however I did analysis on other markets and supply and demand are pretty much at the same level as this sample.
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May 31, 2019, 02:34:37 PM
 #12

It is really hard to predict the price movement of crypto ,
We couldn't really be sure what would happen next because of the huge volume,
People do what they want so we couldn't expect anything to be the same as what we think .

strongly agree, it's not easy to predict the movements of bitcoin. there have been many who predict from ordinary people to those who really know about bitcoin, but since the beginning of 2018, all predictions have nothing to approach, especially true. it occurred to me whether there was no big broker playing too, this could change according to his will even though he might also miss?

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May 31, 2019, 02:41:29 PM
 #13

Bitcoin mining can at least be predicted through charts, but the changes in the demand for bitcoin is hard to predict. This is the reason why it's hard to make prediction on bitcoin price. Just like this year where the demand increases. Considering that huge bitcoin holders are out there to manipulate the market a bit.

           
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May 31, 2019, 04:24:45 PM
Last edit: May 31, 2019, 04:39:21 PM by webtricks
 #14



Current mid-term mood is a fight for 10k USD. This is the psychological price. If demand increases at 10k and supply stays the same, we will have new high level prices. But I think this period won't last very long, because demand is very elastic bellow 10k.


In Bitcoin market it is hard to believe that supply will remain constant. There are many sellers who have pre-determined price level for sale. So we can't say once we reach $10,000, it will surely gonna pump. What if I bought Bitcoin at $17000 last year, why would my sale become perfectly inelastic at levels above $10000?

 Both demand and supply are elastic in case of Bitcoin market and direction of chart depends upon which one is high at any particular price.


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May 31, 2019, 06:03:40 PM
 #15

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.


Don't you just love threads like these? Bitcoin eats them up, chews them and spits them out faster than it takes to build those charts and draft this post. Because, you know, Bitcoin has been doing this for as long as anyone remembers.

To be fair though, there was an 8-hour of relative quiet, the most stable in weeks, during Asian trading times. And then I'm still not sure what happened to pipe things up to 9k before all those profit taking orders crashed the line.

Weekend's approaching. Always the busy period for BTC.

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May 31, 2019, 06:05:14 PM
 #16

My prediction is Bitcoin will be quiet steady for today. I expect the price might fall down a bit, do not expect any drastic movement in price to go up, because there is quite an elastic supply for 2.5k bitcoins.





On what basis this prediction is made, making bitcoin market movements and value changes is really hard and even if you are able to take in all the factors and bring out a semi accurate analysis, it will still be not similar to what might happen, the predictions that are made don't take in consideration the factor of bull runs that might accrue or a big volume of people buying if the price goes up, and a supply increase if the price goes down which is when most people start considering cashing .


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May 31, 2019, 06:29:17 PM
 #17

We really can't predict the future movement of Bitcoin even if we record and track its previous movements. There are events like halving in the future which could affect its value but we couldn't speculate the exact price of it in the future. Despite considering a lot of factors which could affect the price, there's no one who could speculate the exact value and path of Bitcoin.

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May 31, 2019, 09:06:28 PM
 #18

https://i.imgur.com/hxnB59j.png


Why bitcoin is worth less than yesterday? Because demand shifted left. Supply is still stable.

For all of you who doubt: I am not a messiah, but current data shows current mood and current expectations.

Currently, it seems BTC will explode once it reaches 10k. It might get another 5k to 15k just one day. This is the current situation, once again.

But make sure, I'll let you know if there are any changes. I keep monitoring.
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May 31, 2019, 11:46:44 PM
 #19




Why bitcoin is worth less than yesterday? Because demand shifted left. Supply is still stable.

For all of you who doubt: I am not a messiah, but current data shows current mood and current expectations.

Currently, it seems BTC will explode once it reaches 10k. It might get another 5k to 15k just one day. This is the current situation, once again.

But make sure, I'll let you know if there are any changes. I keep monitoring.
I was impressed with your effort on making some updates.I do love TA's when it comes to Bitcoins price but on the topic title
saying that btc doesn't change price which isn't right at all.We should say atleast that the price is moving sideways yet price is always been volatile.
This is my first time on seeing the demand and supply. Where you do base it off?

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SvonioneFromMangoCoinz
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June 01, 2019, 02:17:41 AM
 #20

I and my team both analyze the chart and volume of the BTC. One thing I need to say is that the price of BTC will be reduced in the future. It will now sideway for 2-3 days, and then its price will continue to be adjusted again.
This is a good time for us to order Long on margin trading.

MINTER - WE MINT COINS AND CREATE THE INTERNET OF MONEY
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