Is the upcoming Bitcoin halving triggering the rise of Bitcoin?

[STT]

Its still a year away and this is too much of a rise just to be explained in that way.    Part of the rise is a rebound from artificial lows from forced selling individuals connected to forked BTC chains, these sellers represent pricing outside market demand and lower the price for that moment but not by overall long term market consensus. 

I wish I had realised at the time that deliberate and forced selling could mean the price is then weak enough at that point to bounce back so forcefully, but lesson learned.     There are other factors but that one would be larger then the alteration of the block reward in the future, that event itself is speculative as the change is only cumulative

[1715352441]

1715352441

[1715352441]

1715352441

[adaseb]

In the previous bitcoin halving cycles the price went up in a similar way but at a much slower pace. If you look at a chart and see the 50/25BTC halving dates you will see that it went up slowly, not parabolically as it is right now. So this drive might not be due to the halving.

Another thing you need to consider is that the halving will reduce block reward from 12.5BTC to 6.25BTC, so it means only 6.25BTC less per block. This had a bigger effect in the 50/25 halving since it removed 25 BTC per block. However the price right now is much higher. So if you consider the first halving where BTC was like $10, it means that $250 less of selling pressure. If you consider the 25/12.5 halving the price was $650 so about $8125 less selling pressure. If we assume BTC will stay at $11K for next year until halving it means about $68K less selling pressure.

I just think this is BTC continuing its bubble from $1K to $20K and to $3K correction and now should broke the $20K again. We will see what next year brings.

[veleten]

the halving influences the price , historically , but this one is too early to affect the price
my guess would be the infamous Libra news triggered the bull run , but this can be a plethora of factors
this article is pretty good at describing the halvenning* and its influence on the bitcoin price :
https://blog.usejournal.com/bitcoin-halving-price-effects-and-historical-relevance-b63458216d97

[magneto]

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think that there will be two main factors that will contribute to halving pushing prices up.

Firstly, the fundamentals that it brings mean that newly mined coins become more scarce, which essentially means that the average cost of mining a coin will most likely increase. This should push supply of new coins entering the market significantly down, and prices up.

However, the more important aspect of this in my opinion is actually the psychological aspect, which may result in bigger effects than the fundamentals. People have certain expectations for the halving now because of how prices have historically went up with the halving event, which means that it becomes almost like a self fulfilling prophecy.

I think it's too early to speculate on magnitude of the rally the halving brings, but I think that it'll be imminent that a rally does occur.

[Shinpako09]

As we've seen in the past, yes, it could be the one triggering the price. We all know if it's halving then we are also expecting a new ATH to be set. We are still in June 2019 but look the effect of upcoming halving is taking on. If we are going to have increased in every month until the end of this year then, maybe we'll doubled or tripled the previous ATH.

[BitHodler]

my guess would be the infamous Libra news triggered the bull run

The bull run started the moment we saw that $1000 candle from $4000 to $5000 in April. Nobody at that point knew of Libra, nor did people know that Facebook would announce their coin this or next year.

As technicals improve, algorithms pick up on that and trade the market up. Averages crossing in a bullish manner help them become even more bullish. Based on that I'm saying that it started as a technical rally.

Another thing is that Litecoin has a positive effect on Bitcoin, and with how it has been pumping due to the halving being so close, it takes Bitcoin with it because we're going to see a halving take place as well.

[Ayiranorea]

As we've seen in the past, yes, it could be the one triggering the price. We all know if it's halving then we are also expecting a new ATH to be set. We are still in June 2019 but look the effect of upcoming halving is taking on. If we are going to have increased in every month until the end of this year then, maybe we'll doubled or tripled the previous ATH.

With some confirmed statement we can't say this to be the triggering factor for the rise in bitcoin price that we're experiencing at the moment. It is also a factor corresponding to the rise on the price of bitcoin. Thinking about the previous bull run that we experienced by 2017 it can be understood clearly that the growth took effect once after the days of 2016 halving.

[South Park]

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

We are almost one year away from the day the bitcoin halving will occur so if this rally is based on that only I doubt we will be able to sustain the growth that we are seeing, so I prefer to think there are other reasons for it, probably the most obvious was that the price of bitcoin was artificially low and whales took advantage of this and bought huge quantities of bitcoin for a cheap price, and once the growth started people looking for fast profits immediately joined the market fueling the current bubble that we are seeing.

[harizen]

We are almost one year away from the day the bitcoin halving will occur so if this rally is based on that only I doubt we will be able to sustain the growth that we are seeing, so I prefer to think there are other reasons for it, probably the most obvious was that the price of bitcoin was artificially low and whales took advantage of this and bought huge quantities of bitcoin for a cheap price, and once the growth started people looking for fast profits immediately joined the market fueling the current bubble that we are seeing.

If I'm not mistaken, the price was not increasing much back then prior when the last halving occurs. Should be the same for today's trend? Not that I will say completely NO since we can fairly say that Halving might be "ONE OF THE REASON" since most people now know what happened after the last halving.

There are no specific reasons why we are seeing a price movement like this today but there are lots of factors that can be considered. The price sustain its foundation at each price level resulting for some people to think that "it's now the right time to make an entry!" that further adds some fuel.

But honestly, even I like what's the price is showing today, I'm slowly seeing the same 2017 hype. Hope it's not.

[cocoadreamboy]

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

If you have no idea of what the creation cost is, how would you know how the halving will affect the price?

You can get creation cost data here:

https://www.amsinger.org

Hope you find it useful!

Aaron

[Oceat]

So we have Litecoin halving coming up. The media is talking about the Bitcoin halving coming up next year. That should push Bitcoin to ATH?

At the end of the day, miners need to become profitable so I think that will force the price of BTC to rise as the halvings occur. Forget 2020, I am more excited about the one in 2024 which will really reduce supply.

Any lost Bitcoins are gone forever and not replaced so that should also reduce supply over time. Scarcity will keep Bitcoin value on the rise over the long term.

I think bitcoin is becoming something that poor people may not be able to use it in future based on the way things are going. If we are having halving in 2020 and the market has started to react to that now that we are in 2019 it means by 2020 June bitcoin may be above $100,000. I am hearing about this reduction in supply of bitcoin by 2024 and that is going to create scarcity and bitcoin may be more than $1,000,000 then.

I still don't think so, there would be no chance that Bitcoin would reach that price by next year. You are basically asking a 10x growth of price in the next six month that is unlikely to happen. Let's just be realistic here by looking at the chart price of Bitcoin in the previous months. How would you find it that the price next year would touch the six-digit?