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Author Topic: Bitcoin dominance hits 71.2%, alts lagging behind  (Read 1981 times)
gentlemand
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September 04, 2019, 09:42:17 AM
Merited by stompix (1)
 #221

This is NOTHING like the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble was $10 TRILLION in 1999, which is probably equivalent to $15+ Trillion today.  

Obviously not in financial terms, but in spirit there are similarities.

The dotcom bubble consisted of -

Hey, here's this new thing. Looks sleek. Looks sexy. Buzzwords. Guess it must be worth something. BUBBLE.

Then it cratered for years. Then some real usage was figured out long after almost all of the stuff that bubbled died.


That's exactly how I expect crypto to play out too. The question is was the 2017 alt bubble dotcom in miniature while Bitcoin was the internet itself all along? Or is it the true dotcom moment yet to come? It's going to take a long time to find out.


I doubt that also.

In the first altcoin bubble in 2013 we got a lot of shitty altcoins that had no "whitepaper", no "team" no "roadmap" but some of them did attract a lot of money because we still had lots of new people that never heard of cryptos.
In 2017 simple project had no chance you had to have all the "x" in order to get money and some did.
2019 and nothing is managing to attract money the way they did it before.

There's no way of knowing until the whiff of bubbliness returns. As soon as it does I expect all diligence to fly out the window once more.

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September 04, 2019, 02:59:35 PM
 #222

~

This is NOTHING like the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble was $10 TRILLION in 1999, which is probably equivalent to $15+ Trillion today.  

So we have a long ways to go before we get to those proportions. The last alt/btc bubble didn't even make it to $1 Trillion. Plus the dot com bubble was US based. Crypto is world wide.

A crash is still a crash, no matter if there are 3 or 15 cars in the accident, and to those hurt in the accident or killed in it it doesn't really matter the size of it.
Same when there is a financial crash, a stock bubble when you start losing money it doesn't matter that others are losing billions or trillions.

And I said "like" it, not the same size or anything else.
But if you check the first few pages in altcoins and tokens you can see the similarities, those "project" are 100x more ridiculous than the ones that failed in the dot com bubble.

But alts (at least the decent ones with real applications and teams) will rise again.

Hmm, are there more than ten that have a unique real-world application that can't be done with BTC?
I seriously doubt it.

I don't know about you but focusing entirely at Bitcoin dominance is half the picture. I also look at the total marketcap of all coins (Bitcoin and alts) https://charts.cointrader.pro/charts.html?coin=MARKETCAP-TOTAL%3AMARKETCAP

It tells me where the money is flowing. So far, it's mostly on Bitcoin.

I was talking about how alts and shitcoins are attracting less and less money, market cap is very bad indicator for this.

And let me give you an example:
A 50 000$ coin buy in some shitcoin might trigger a 5 cent uptick and with 100 millions coins that's a raise of 5 million$ market cap.
So, how much money has flown into that coin? 50 000$ or 5 million?



The dotcom bubble consisted of -
Hey, here's this new thing. Looks sleek. Looks sexy. Buzzwords. Guess it must be worth something. BUBBLE.
Then it cratered for years. Then some real usage was figured out long after almost all of the stuff that bubbled died.

That's exactly how I expect crypto to play out too. The question is was the 2017 alt bubble dotcom in miniature while Bitcoin was the internet itself all along? Or is it the true dotcom moment yet to come? It's going to take a long time to find out.

Exactly my point.
All these ICOs are the same as a lot of defunct web companies that promised things poeple don't need, have no interst in it and there are already companies in the market doing that nusiness far better without any shitcoin help.

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September 05, 2019, 02:13:30 AM
 #223

Hmm, are there more than ten that have a unique real-world application that can't be done with BTC?
I seriously doubt it.

There were quite a few decent ideas. But the problem is that these "ideas" were not converted in to reality. For example, Tron (TRX) was created as a content distribution platform for the digital entertainment industry. And how many are using TRX for this purpose right now? TRX is a good example of what is wrong with the altcoins. There were a few good ideas, but the developers failed to finish the project. Too much hype was given to many of these projetcs, even before the initial round of development was complete.

And check the exchange rates for TRX. It has been a bloodbath. The coin has lost more than 60% of its value in the last two months and there is hardly any demand from the buyers. All the drama regarding the ($1 million) lunch with Warren Buffet failed to prop up the coin. If Justin Sun is serious about TRX, then he should concentrate on the development rather than indulging in theatrics.

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September 05, 2019, 06:31:48 AM
Merited by exstasie (1)
 #224

This is NOTHING like the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble was $10 TRILLION in 1999, which is probably equivalent to $15+ Trillion today. 
this is nothing like that but it has nothing to do with the size. in dot com bubble people were buying things that made sense, but in altcoin bubble they are buying into a pump of a useless thing that has no reason to exist.

There will be another ALT bubble. But alts are going to continue to die until BTC is above ATHs. Once there is excess money to go around, it will start to flow back into alts. But the alt bear needs to be proportional the alt bull. The alt bull was huge compared to the last btc bull market. So now it has to bleed some more first.
you are wrong.
the problem with altcoins is their lack of usage. basically they are created with one purpose in mind, to get pumped and dumped. so what we have is small periods where manipulators (market influencers) pump these coins artificially so that they can make money in short term and dump them right afterwards.
so what happens is that it doesn't matter what bitcoin does and where it is regarding its price, these pumpers are pumping these shitcoins 24/7/365 but sometimes since there is more newbies around they can pump shitcoins more than usual. otherwise "excess" money never goes into these shitcoins because they are super risky.

With all due respect, it is posts like yours that give me confidence that there will be another large - maybe even larger - alt bubble in the future. As soon as people start saying something can't happen because enter (humans wont do irrational things because it wouldnt make sense) here then, in the crypto world, I just say "Oh yeah? Then watch."
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September 05, 2019, 07:20:08 AM
 #225

you are wrong.
the problem with altcoins is their lack of usage. basically they are created with one purpose in mind, to get pumped and dumped. so what we have is small periods where manipulators (market influencers) pump these coins artificially so that they can make money in short term and dump them right afterwards.
so what happens is that it doesn't matter what bitcoin does and where it is regarding its price, these pumpers are pumping these shitcoins 24/7/365 but sometimes since there is more newbies around they can pump shitcoins more than usual. otherwise "excess" money never goes into these shitcoins because they are super risky.

With all due respect, it is posts like yours that give me confidence that there will be another large - maybe even larger - alt bubble in the future. As soon as people start saying something can't happen because enter (humans wont do irrational things because it wouldnt make sense) here then, in the crypto world, I just say "Oh yeah? Then watch."

I'm amazed at how many old timers there are who lived through 2013 and 2017 and still believe altcoins will never bubble again. I'm glad too. There's a lot of that sentiment going around. By the time BTC is testing the ATH, we'll probably be seeing the final ALT/BTC capitulation. It's always darkest before dawn.

I can't wait for the next altcoin season. Smiley

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September 05, 2019, 02:07:41 PM
 #226

Hmm, are there more than ten that have a unique real-world application that can't be done with BTC?
I seriously doubt it.

There were quite a few decent ideas.

That's the most important word. A few! Not 2648 (still listed on cmc) and probably another few thousand dead.

People will soon have to understand that if crypto is designed to do something like car-sharing or lemon juice labbeling it doesn't have to also be tradeable and raise in price to the moon. There are thousands of private companies out there getting more revenue than public traded ones, there are companies with literally no trading volume but who pay dividends with clockwork precision, and the altcoin market will have to mature also.

Those alts have no other purpose than making the 'dev" team rich and maybe a few holders who bought at the right time but other than that they are just used for gambling ..err trading. Not going to strike that since is quite the same.

I'm amazed at how many old timers there are who lived through 2013 and 2017 and still believe altcoins will never bubble again. I'm glad too. There's a lot of that sentiment going around. By the time BTC is testing the ATH, we'll probably be seeing the final ALT/BTC capitulation. It's always darkest before dawn.

I can't wait for the next altcoin season. Smiley

You're probably mistaken what some of us say here.
Alts will have their place in the market, but real altcoins, the few that actually can be used for something other than trading, not the shitcoins we're seeing right now in the top 100 on CMC.
Just like the dotcom bubble cleared a lot of the history companies out there and far stronger and healthier ones have appeared and succeded where those have failed.

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September 05, 2019, 06:34:27 PM
 #227

I'm amazed at how many old timers there are who lived through 2013 and 2017 and still believe altcoins will never bubble again. I'm glad too. There's a lot of that sentiment going around. By the time BTC is testing the ATH, we'll probably be seeing the final ALT/BTC capitulation. It's always darkest before dawn.

I can't wait for the next altcoin season. Smiley

You're probably mistaken what some of us say here.
Alts will have their place in the market, but real altcoins, the few that actually can be used for something other than trading, not the shitcoins we're seeing right now in the top 100 on CMC.
Just like the dotcom bubble cleared a lot of the history companies out there and far stronger and healthier ones have appeared and succeded where those have failed.

Thousands of altcoins are already in the graveyard. The ones that can't retain market listings through the bear phase risk completely disappearing from the market. That's already happened. There have been massive de-listings recently and there may be more coming.

It's all about timing. When altcoin season eventually arrives, basically every coin still listed on decent altcoin exchanges will get pumped at some point. That's what people around here don't understand. They keep trying to apply rationality to an irrational market. Nobody gives a shit about fundamentals during a bubble. New money is just desperate to get into something, anything, before it's too late.

The comparisons to the dotcom bubble (as if it's already happened) don't make sense. The altcoin market is in a much more nascent state then that. Clearly there is no Amazon or Google or Facebook. This is probably more like the pre-Yahoo stages where everything is still complete shit. I think it's simply crazy to assume the market has already "matured" and that over-speculation is unlikely to continue.

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September 05, 2019, 08:06:01 PM
 #228

The previous 'alt seasons' happened AFTER the BTC halving so this might take a while Grin.

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September 05, 2019, 08:31:53 PM
 #229

The previous 'alt seasons' happened AFTER the BTC halving so this might take a while Grin.

Good point, but here's something else to consider. The 2014-2015 bear market was decidedly longer than the 2018 bear market, by about 8 months. So maybe the halving gets front run by 6 months or a year this time, and everything unfolds more quickly.

I think the relationship between BTC and alts has much more to do with BTCUSD price than halvings or any fundamentals like that.

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September 05, 2019, 08:54:54 PM
Last edit: September 05, 2019, 09:10:42 PM by STT
 #230

On the last halvening, it was hyped and the price did rise.   I guess percentages matter here because it was only hundreds at the time but still there was lots of bullish talk, its coming its coming.   This is an easy bet, its for sure going to take off as soon as the block reward halves.  
   But that isnt really true, the whole process is like a year long transformation to the supply of less BTC per block.   The actual date of change means on that day every ten minutes its half as much, and it doesnt matter at all because thats barely anything vs the large amounts of BTC stacked up either side on the markets all around us.     Eventually there is a cumulative influence, a tightening and I think that has to be at least a year.

    Anyone buying for that reason or speculating is way too early anyway but it doesnt matter because its a non event, boring but true sorry.   Also every echo of this block reward event is half as important as the last, so double everything I just said.   It mostly went down after BTC halving short term anyhow, maybe the deflation in expectations in some way distributed and helped alt coins but afterwards can probably go holiday for rest of the year and not miss that much in terms of accelerated moves or trend transformation.
   However I'm always too cynical for BTC it seems, I'd be a millionaire a few times over and broke again in a Jesse Livermore kind of way if I believed 100% in many tech ideas occuring during my trading life.

Quote
there are who lived through 2013 and 2017 and still believe altcoins will never bubble again.

I'll believe it if theres a reason why.   People might dislike the ETH token thing and ICO and that kind of expansion but it explained why, anyone who paid attention and could foresee that did well.
    What should be driving the next alt coin phase should be efficiency, development, end user experience and engagement.   Its totally possible if they hook into the world economy and provide utility.   Hopefully its more then the idea and is an actual thing, I'd love to see genuine advancement and price doesnt matter if actual progress occurs.
    I always thought POS should have a turn, it could be a thing of the people and I've never found a good argument why it couldn't be a technology utilised.   Ideas have to be tested, economically the market is part of that I guess.   The ETH take on POS is not what I mean as it doesnt include the smallest 'bits' of the economy, thats where I see the power for growth.

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September 05, 2019, 09:25:52 PM
 #231

When altcoin season eventually arrives, basically every coin still listed on decent altcoin exchanges will get pumped at some point. That's what people around here don't understand. They keep trying to apply rationality to an irrational market. Nobody gives a shit about fundamentals during a bubble. New money is just desperate to get into something, anything, before it's too late.

The comparisons to the dotcom bubble (as if it's already happened) don't make sense. The altcoin market is in a much more nascent state then that. Clearly there is no Amazon or Google or Facebook. This is probably more like the pre-Yahoo stages where everything is still complete shit. I think it's simply crazy to assume the market has already "matured" and that over-speculation is unlikely to continue.

The bolded bit is v interesting to me. I well and truly can't believe the current crop of exchanges is where the market will settle. The money required for something dotcom sized will be on established channels, not new ones.

I don't believe those types of places will have the slightest interest in listing all but a handful of alts. The days of a one page website and white paper shitcoin being exposed to the premier league are dwindling and probably gone already.

We're heading towards a two tier, or multiple tier, market. There'll be the super casinos glittering up front and the grind joints lurking in the shadows.

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September 06, 2019, 07:32:48 AM
 #232

When altcoin season eventually arrives, basically every coin still listed on decent altcoin exchanges will get pumped at some point. That's what people around here don't understand. They keep trying to apply rationality to an irrational market. Nobody gives a shit about fundamentals during a bubble. New money is just desperate to get into something, anything, before it's too late.

The comparisons to the dotcom bubble (as if it's already happened) don't make sense. The altcoin market is in a much more nascent state then that. Clearly there is no Amazon or Google or Facebook. This is probably more like the pre-Yahoo stages where everything is still complete shit. I think it's simply crazy to assume the market has already "matured" and that over-speculation is unlikely to continue.

The bolded bit is v interesting to me. I well and truly can't believe the current crop of exchanges is where the market will settle. The money required for something dotcom sized will be on established channels, not new ones.

I don't believe those types of places will have the slightest interest in listing all but a handful of alts.

But we're nowhere near the market settling or a dot-com sized bubble. We're just on the cusp of the next bubble. There's no reason to speculate about what might happen 10 or 20 years down the line when the market is finally "mature" or something. I'm just interested in what's going to happen in the next year or two. Altcoins are still very much a retail affair.

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September 06, 2019, 03:10:56 PM
 #233

I have edited my original post, as the Bitcoin dominance is increasing too fast. In my original post, I had posted that we'll see a dominance of 70% by the end of this year. And with four months to go, we have reached 71.2%. So I changed my prediction to 80% by the end of 2019. Altcoins, irrespective of their market cap are steadily marching to the graveyard. Give me an example of a single altcoin, which has increased its market share during the last 4 months.

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September 06, 2019, 03:32:29 PM
 #234

All big cap alts are indeed altcoins
I agree in a case of TRX it is ugly Ponzi by my opinion
I don't like xrp because it was premined coin however xrp will rebound at some moment
Personally i like both dash and LTC
I am waiting for Ltc at price 50$ or even 45$ then LTC can nicely recover
ETH is coin what is most hard to trade to me
But that so fast rising bitcoin dominance is not good for btc also
Now we have nice btc pump but look volume it is so low
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September 07, 2019, 04:10:09 AM
 #235

The good news is that the Bitcoin dominance has now breached the 70% level and it is surging ahead without any major obstacles. At this rate, I would say that 80% by the end of this year is very much of a possibility.

Total crypto market cap: $264,545,070,441

Bitcoin: $185,277,223,031 (70.036%)
Bitcoin forks: $8,030,578,364 (3.036%)
Stablecoins: $4,872,961,419 (1.842%)
Altcoins: $66,364,307,627 (25.086%)

This is the change compared to my last post:

Bitcoin: +1.489%
Bitcoin forks: -0.110%
Stablecoins: +0.056%
Altcoins: -1.435%

OK... Here are the updated numbers, after 4 days. See how much change occurred in just four days!!!

Total crypto market cap: $262,267,007,642

Bitcoin: $185,986,798,673 (70.915%)
Bitcoin forks: $7,807,050,930 (2.977%)
Stablecoins: $4,946,733,307 (1.886%)
Altcoins: $63,526,424,732 (24.222%)

This is the change compared to my last post:

Bitcoin: +0.879%
Bitcoin forks: -0.059%
Stablecoins: 0.044%
Altcoins: -0.864%

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Herbert2020
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September 07, 2019, 04:51:10 AM
 #236

This is NOTHING like the dot com bubble. The dot com bubble was $10 TRILLION in 1999, which is probably equivalent to $15+ Trillion today. 
this is nothing like that but it has nothing to do with the size. in dot com bubble people were buying things that made sense, but in altcoin bubble they are buying into a pump of a useless thing that has no reason to exist.

There will be another ALT bubble. But alts are going to continue to die until BTC is above ATHs. Once there is excess money to go around, it will start to flow back into alts. But the alt bear needs to be proportional the alt bull. The alt bull was huge compared to the last btc bull market. So now it has to bleed some more first.
you are wrong.
the problem with altcoins is their lack of usage. basically they are created with one purpose in mind, to get pumped and dumped. so what we have is small periods where manipulators (market influencers) pump these coins artificially so that they can make money in short term and dump them right afterwards.
so what happens is that it doesn't matter what bitcoin does and where it is regarding its price, these pumpers are pumping these shitcoins 24/7/365 but sometimes since there is more newbies around they can pump shitcoins more than usual. otherwise "excess" money never goes into these shitcoins because they are super risky.

With all due respect, it is posts like yours that give me confidence that there will be another large - maybe even larger - alt bubble in the future. As soon as people start saying something can't happen because enter (humans wont do irrational things because it wouldnt make sense) here then, in the crypto world, I just say "Oh yeah? Then watch."

to be clear the part i disagreed with and said "you are wrong" is not the altcoin bubble/pumps. as i said, the altcoins will pump again as many are already pumping big time and reaching big bubbles. in fact i don't even deny altcoin season and their massive bubbles. we will continue seeing a huge market wide altcoin bubble every 2 years at least.

the part i am disagreeing with was the "excess money going from bitcoin to altcoins". that simply is wrong in my experience. for starters people invest their bitcoin in altcoins not their money. and as i explained in details the altcoin pumps only fool newbies to "invest" others are just participating in them during the pumps.

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September 07, 2019, 01:37:43 PM
 #237

to be clear the part i disagreed with and said "you are wrong" is not the altcoin bubble/pumps. as i said, the altcoins will pump again as many are already pumping big time and reaching big bubbles. in fact i don't even deny altcoin season and their massive bubbles. we will continue seeing a huge market wide altcoin bubble every 2 years at least.

the part i am disagreeing with was the "excess money going from bitcoin to altcoins". that simply is wrong in my experience. for starters people invest their bitcoin in altcoins not their money. and as i explained in details the altcoin pumps only fool newbies to "invest" others are just participating in them during the pumps.

There should be a reason for the investors to pump these altcoins. So what will be the reason or a possible trigger in your opinion? Back in 2017, it was the ICO boom that caused the alt prices to go up like crazy (in particular, Ethereum went up by 10,000% in 2017). I can't think of a trigger happening anytime in the next 12 months. The ICOs are dead. Good IEOs are few and far in between. And while we debate about all this, the Bitcoin dominance continues to increase, approximately at a rate of 1% per week.

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September 08, 2019, 08:13:05 AM
 #238

In the last 24 hours, the dominance of BTC has declined slightly due to higher prices for most altcoins. It is possible that the altcoins price increase is associated with the Ethereum price increase, but I did not find any convincing news on this subject, so it is not clear to me what this situation in the crypto market is connected with.

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September 08, 2019, 08:50:06 AM
 #239

There should be a reason for the investors to pump these altcoins. So what will be the reason or a possible trigger in your opinion? Back in 2017, it was the ICO boom that caused the alt prices to go up like crazy (in particular, Ethereum went up by 10,000% in 2017). I can't think of a trigger happening anytime in the next 12 months.

I find it a bit odd that so few mention ICOs as one of the prime reasons for Bitcoin itself to pump in 2017. It was still the main gateway to enter altland.

All alts need to be to bubble is alive and cheaper than BTC if BTC takes off properly. It might not sustain or be as epic but it'll happen.


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September 08, 2019, 09:31:29 AM
 #240

There should be a reason for the investors to pump these altcoins. So what will be the reason or a possible trigger in your opinion? Back in 2017, it was the ICO boom that caused the alt prices to go up like crazy (in particular, Ethereum went up by 10,000% in 2017). I can't think of a trigger happening anytime in the next 12 months.

nobody ever sees it coming. that's how it works. you think in 2016 people were predicting ICOs would take off? of course not. something will get hyped like ICOs. it doesn't matter what it is. fundamentals don't matter in a bubble.

I find it a bit odd that so few mention ICOs as one of the prime reasons for Bitcoin itself to pump in 2017. It was still the main gateway to enter altland.

it's a symbiotic relationship. but i would say that bitcoin allows altcoins to bubble, not the other way around. it was bitcoin's bull market and new ATH that fomented the ICO bubble in the first place. altcoins can't bubble on their own.

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