Why was $13,800 unsustainable?

[cocoadreamboy]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

https://www.amsinger.org/home-1

I will keep updating this topic as the crash continues or if I get interesting comments.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,

Aaron

[1713533443]

1713533443

[1713533443]

1713533443

[Slow death]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I am not a miner and i am not a professional analyst, but is it possible that all miners sell their 1800 bitcoin a day? and why would all the miners sell their 1800 bitcoins a day? and about "holders". why would they sell their bitcoins? because I suppose that many of them are willing to hold for many more years

It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

charging $ 19.99

https://www.amsinger.org/subscriptions

yes, you " saved a lot of people money in this fervor "

[cocoadreamboy]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I am not a miner and i am not a professional analyst, but is it possible that all miners sell their 1800 bitcoin a day? and why would all the miners sell their 1800 bitcoins a day? and about "holders". why would they sell their bitcoins? because I suppose that many of them are willing to hold for many more years

It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

charging $ 19.99

https://www.amsinger.org/subscriptions

yes, you " saved a lot of people money in this fervor "

Lol if $20 is breaking ya, you are small fry.

1800 btc are mined every day unless the miners are deciding to hold massive amounts of coins at massively inflated prices. Does that seem logical to you?

If you were making pencils for 10 cents and some guy offered you $10 per you would sell all your inventory in a heartbeat.

That is how financial markets and regular markets work my friend.

[bbc.reporter]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I am not a miner and i am not a professional analyst, but is it possible that all miners sell their 1800 bitcoin a day? and why would all the miners sell their 1800 bitcoins a day? and about "holders". why would they sell their bitcoins? because I suppose that many of them are willing to hold for many more years

Agreed. That is why I blame Tom Lee. He told everyone in the beginning of this year that bitcoin's fair value is $14k. He is scamming with everyone. $14k is his target to dump hehehehe. He tricked us!

[exstasie]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

You recently called the top around $9,000. You said, "This is just the beginning of the fall" and yet the market never made new lows. Your clients, if you have any, lost a lot of coins on your advice. Care to explain what went wrong with your analysis last time? You don't exactly have a track record that warrants paying you for advice.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

Ah, so the bear market REKT you and now you're a perma-bear. I get it.

[cocoadreamboy]

Ah, so the bear market REKT you and now you're a perma-bear. I get it.

I have released information about optimal buy periods here:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research

This research is replete with realtime data and logic. What are your data that you use to tell people to buy 13k bitcoin?

I am a logical investor who presents unbiased information. If my clients want to stay in the market it is their choice. I just present RISK information and present a portfolio example of how I would invest the market.

I don't tell my clients to do anything. I find them to be very intelligent people, and I am sure many of them are better traders than I am.

Aaron

Read before you call people names my friend.

[MegaAnalysis]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

I will keep updating this topic as the crash continues or if I get interesting comments.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,

Aaron

It's not a crash, rather a correction (a big one though). A medium term crash should come later after further gains. 13800 level should be crossed in near future.

[exstasie]

You recently called the top around $9,000. You said, "This is just the beginning of the fall" and yet the market never made new lows. Your clients, if you have any, lost a lot of coins on your advice. Care to explain what went wrong with your analysis last time? You don't exactly have a track record that warrants paying you for advice.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

Ah, so the bear market REKT you and now you're a perma-bear. I get it.

I have released information about optimal buy periods here:

https://www.amsinger.org/open-research

This research is replete with realtime data and logic. What are your data that you use to tell people to buy 13k bitcoin?

When did I tell people to buy BTC at $13K? That never happened.

You just told people to sell at $9K a week ago (see quoted link above), right before BTC rallied to nearly $14K. It's amazing you can sell a paid service around here with a straight face. You should demonstrate a decent track record before attempting to sell shit here. From the looks of it, you're just coming into my community and ripping people off.

[STT]

I'm officially small fry but I agree with the general idea, new supply vs latent demand equates to some direction for the market.   Thats a very broad view and we obviously have large speculative swings and attempts to swing trade on a smaller time frame.    At present the market is very bullish but at some point supply is far too much for it to hold.

13,800 area is a Fib line and similarly the lows are close to another or more simply the two day average price.   It'll take time to work itself out, I assume we resolve upwards as long as we keep 12,400

[exstasie]

13,800 area is a Fib line and similarly the lows are close to another or more simply the two day average price.  

It was an interesting place for the rally to take a pit stop. $13,500 is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2018 bear market. I've definitely seen cases where we spiked through such a fib line and then entered a significant correction.

It'll take time to work itself out, I assume we resolve upwards as long as we keep 12,400

What's the significance of $12,400? I could see us running stops below the daily pivot ~$10,550 and continuing upwards.

[hisslyness]

The miners create 1800 bitcoin/ day, which means, with simple supply and demand, bitcoin will need ~$23.4 million of new investment/day just to buy the new bitcoin that is being created (not to mention holders selling new highs) to maintain that price.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies. I share this data with my clients on my site, please give it a look. It could have saved a lot of people money in this fervor.

https://www.amsinger.org/sample-analysis

I will keep updating this topic as the crash continues or if I get interesting comments.

I really just want to help people save money and avoid the pain I felt in Nov 2018 when I was cleaned out for basically no reason.

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger,

Aaron

That is a very simplistic way of looking at it... but there is much more to it mining than a simple input/output view...

I don’t know if you are aware of the amount of people mining.... just from SlushPool there are over 15,000 active users, all of which have varied and hashrates... which means different payout ratios and varying amount of Bitcoin rewards... Some miners do not even withdraw their BTC for months, let alone sell.

Just because there are 1800 BTC created everyday, doesn’t means there needs to be $20M+ of new investment everyday...

However, there is always a cost associated with generating 1800BTC. Electricity Cost/hardware depreciation etc etc... this cost would need to be paid out regardless...

[Bitcoinwaist]

bitcoin in just taking a breather. don't you fret, that euphoric feeling will return   

[Red-Apple]

my friend you have to accept that you are new to bitcoin and have very little understanding of its market movement. so instead of trying to sell your false guesses in form of market analysis to newbies who don't know better you are better off doing something else to make money. that way you wouldn't be the cause of some newbies losing money either.

[cocoadreamboy]

It's not a crash, rather a correction (a big one though). A medium term crash should come later after further gains. 13800 level should be crossed in near future.

Again, what information do you use when saying that?

My opinions are founded with knowledge of the creation cost. My opinions are founded in treating bitcoin like a highly manipulated financial market.

People say it is going to 13k, 20k, 82.5k, but they base their statements in absolute garbage and emotional nonsense.

How do you know 13,800 will be crossed in the "near future" please tell me.

Aaron

[NeuroticFish]

Lol if $20 is breaking ya, you are small fry.

If you need 20$ for your advises it means that you are not good enough to earn from speculating on Bitcoin, so your advises are basically worthless.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies.

I also used logic in what I wrote above. Can you beat that?

[cocoadreamboy]

When did I tell people to buy BTC at $13K? That never happened.

You just told people to sell at $9K a week ago (see quoted link above), right before BTC rallied to nearly $14K. It's amazing you can sell a paid service around here with a straight face. You should demonstrate a decent track record before attempting to sell shit here. From the looks of it, you're just coming into my community and ripping people off.

Where did I tell people to sell at $9k Mr. troll? I predicted a drop due to short interest. I told no one to sell. I told people you can predict market maneuvers by understanding market dynamics.

And yes, you person with complete inability to read English, I demonstrated why Feb 7 was an optimal time to buy. I also said that May 2 was another good time to buy based on the creation cost. If you understood the numbers it is not hard to know when bitcoin is high and when it is low. You don't, that doesn't mean my clients don't.

Thank you for cussing and demonstrating how intelligent you are.

Learn to read English,

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

That is a very simplistic way of looking at it... but there is much more to it mining than a simple input/output view...

I don’t know if you are aware of the amount of people mining.... just from SlushPool there are over 15,000 active users, all of which have varied and hashrates... which means different payout ratios and varying amount of Bitcoin rewards... Some miners do not even withdraw their BTC for months, let alone sell.

Just because there are 1800 BTC created everyday, doesn’t means there needs to be $20M+ of new investment everyday...

However, there is always a cost associated with generating 1800BTC. Electricity Cost/hardware depreciation etc etc... this cost would need to be paid out regardless...

Any moron can make something difficult, it takes intelligence to make something simple. On average yes 1800 btc are sold per day. Yes there is an inventory, but it will eventually get sold +older coins will get sold during ridiculous highs.

At 13k yes you will need $20M+ to sustain the price. That is why it dumped so fast. It was clear market manipulation up.

I made this system to help people understand the reality of bitcoin. It is designed to help people find the right time to buy, and make money off the morons buying "on the moon".

Much love,

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

bitcoin in just taking a breather. don't you fret, that euphoric feeling will return   

No doubt, enjoy making financial decisions in euphoria lol

My clients will most assuredly enjoy taking advantage of your ecstasy.

Aaron

[cocoadreamboy]

Lol if $20 is breaking ya, you are small fry.

If you need 20$ for your advises it means that you are not good enough to earn from speculating on Bitcoin, so your advises are basically worthless.

I use LOGIC and NUMBERS to figure out my trading and holding strategies.

I also used logic in what I wrote above. Can you beat that?

The pay wall exists to protect my clients and not give profitable information to lookey loos on message boards.

You used false logic in what you wrote above, and I did in fact beat that.

Aaron

P.S. You guys are really mad I am not giving my hard work away for free lol

[NeuroticFish]

P.S. You guys are really mad I am not giving my hard work away for free lol

1. You didn't convince anybody that your advises are valuable at all.
2. You wrongly assumed that I want your work for free. I don't. I just tried to help any unknowing newbie lose money by blindly following (you or) any unknown people over internet trading advises.