[2019-06-24]Key Bitcoin Price Indicator Suggests $21,000 ‘Fair Value’ By End Of

[Vladdirescu87]

Key Bitcoin Price Indicator Suggests $21,000 ‘Fair Value’ By End Of 2019

The bitcoin (BTC) price is unlikely to break $40,000 in 2019, Bitcoin Knowledge podcast host Trace Mayer declared as part of new analysis on June 24.

Uploading fresh readings from his price forecasting tool, the ‘Mayer Multiple,’ the serial commentator and bitcoin proponent said that current trajectory should favor an end-of-year bitcoin price of $21,000.

This, while below the estimates of other industry figures such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, still places the largest cryptocurrency ahead of its record high set in December 2017.

The Mayer Multiple is a calculation achieved by dividing the current bitcoin price by its 200-day moving average. Currently at 2.09, the metric has only seen higher readings 14.79% of the time, meaning that a giant leap to $40,000, in particular, is unwarranted.

“...Very low probability of $40k in a few months,” Mayer summarized.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/key-bitcoin-price-indicator-suggests-21-000-fair-value-by-end-of-2019

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[Carlton Banks]

total nonsense


...except if sufficient numbers of people believe it

and that really lays bare what this "news" piece is: it's pure 100% psychology and zero % empiricism. No analysis can predict future behavior in free-market currency prices accurately, especially such a commodity with an absolutely fixed supply schedule. "Uptrend" is about the best price prediction anyone can give, the rest is (at best) pure guesswork, or (at worst) pure market manipulation

[suzanne5223]

total nonsense


...except if sufficient numbers of people believe it

and that really lays bare what this "news" piece is: it's pure 100% psychology and zero % empiricism. No analysis can predict future behavior in free-market currency prices accurately, especially such a commodity with an absolutely fixed supply schedule. "Uptrend" is about the best price prediction anyone can give, the rest is (at best) pure guesswork, or (at worst) pure market manipulation

Definitely. First it was John McAfee which said the price of bitcoin will hit 1million per coin when it next year and now Trace Mayer also make another prediction but I wonder why people keep on making a false prediction of the bitcoin market every time the market seems to be in bullish mode.

[figmentofmyass]

the only "fair value" for bitcoins---or anything else---is what the market is willing to pay. value is completely subjective. you can't predict future supply and demand. you can't predict the level of faith people will have in bitcoin, and that's what money boils down to---collective faith that a given money will retain value.

the idea that someone could use technical indicators or network metrics to determine what the price ought to be is ludicrous. the people who peddle these theories (like tom lee) are horrible traders.

[1Referee]

First it was John McAfee which said the price of bitcoin will hit 1million per coin when it next year and now Trace Mayer also make another prediction but I wonder why people keep on making a false prediction of the bitcoin market every time the market seems to be in bullish mode.

McAfee is a complete lunatic, ignore this drug abuser and fraudster. Trace is quite a respected entity within the space with solid investments contributing to what he believe will work towards a better and more secure ecosystem. I add more value to what he says than anybody else throwing with predictions left and right.

I am more a fan of letting the market speak for itself. Whether the current price is $5000 or $100,000, it is what people are willing to pay for it. People said that sub $4000 was extremely unfair for Bitcoin, but if it was unfair, the price would reflect that and start going up. The market valuation at that point was fair. People didn't want to pay more for a Bitcoin. It's that simple.

The market is never wrong. People are most of the times.

[Jating]

Another so called experts just comes out of the closet? Fair value should be what the amount an average Joe is willing to buy (or sell) their coins.

But I would take the price any day, that is if it hits that target. However, be cautious though, not every prediction is a sure bull-eyes, I won't rather wait and let the market flows so that I won't be disappointed at the end.

[magneto]

Uploading fresh readings from his price forecasting tool, the ‘Mayer Multiple,’ the serial commentator and bitcoin proponent said that current trajectory should favor an end-of-year bitcoin price of $21,000.

This, while below the estimates of other industry figures such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, still places the largest cryptocurrency ahead of its record high set in December 2017.

There is this apparent fascination and obsession of determining what bitcoin's "fair value" or "natural value" is.

I think that this is completely unnecessary, and even potentially bogus analysis. First of all, there is no proof whatsoever that what they are doing in terms of analysing and drawing these indicators is actually through valid TA or whatnot.

Secondly, bitcoin's "fair value" as a currency is solely dependent on its utility, which can be reflected directly through demand. I personally do not believe there to be a natural price for bitcoin, or even a set underlying value.

I'd analyse fundamentals instead of trying to figure out something that doesn't even exist.

[LeGaulois]

total nonsense


...except if sufficient numbers of people believe it

and that really lays bare what this "news" piece is: it's pure 100% psychology and zero % empiricism. No analysis can predict future behavior in free-market currency prices accurately, especially such a commodity with an absolutely fixed supply schedule. "Uptrend" is about the best price prediction anyone can give, the rest is (at best) pure guesswork, or (at worst) pure market manipulation

While I agree with you with no doubt, you can't deny $21,000 is possible. Why not? Take a look at the current uptrend, if it continues Dec. 2019 could be the fork of Dec. 2017 with 20k USD/BTC. Before April 1 who could guess the BTC value will double?
It's a possibility like BTC failing at $6k is also another one.

[Carlton Banks]

While I agree with you with no doubt, you can't deny $21,000 is possible.

oh yeah, of course it is. there's just no reason to assume there's anything special about the figure

It's a possibility like BTC failing at $6k is also another one.

seems less likely than the former, but even $0 is not impossible. All potential market values depend entirely on the circumstances.

[akamit]

Definitely. First it was John McAfee which said the price of bitcoin will hit 1million per coin when it next year and now Trace Mayer also make another prediction but I wonder why people keep on making a false prediction of the bitcoin market every time the market seems to be in bullish mode.

Does making predictions cost anything? No, It's not! Prediction is free and that's why we see this thing all the time.

If anyone predicted a future price and if it is achieved -- then people will call them "Lord of Prophecy", if not BS.
As an example Mr. McAfee's $1m prediction - we haven't seen a sign yet to reach that price -- so we can call it BS.

[CryptoBry]

Making prediction for bitcoin has become one of the trendiest thing to do these days and yes if more people will believe the same then it can surely influence the behavior and movement of bitcoin now and in the coming months. This is similar to a self-fulfilling prophecy. When the same prediction can happen or at least will be near the figures then am sure that Trace Mayer and can emboldened the guy to predict more outrageous numbers for bitcoin. Well, it is easy to predict that bitcoin can go as high as this and that all because we are in the bull run...the last time when bitcoin winter was pervading I saw no such things. Still, am hoping the same can come true.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Why don't they come up with these sort of predictions when the exchange rate was just above $3,000 per coin in March? These sort of predictions only come out when BTC suddenly goes up by 200% or 300%. IMO, the next bull run should take us to $50,000 per coin, and there is a very good chance of that occurring during this year itself.

[onrise]

Why don't they come up with these sort of predictions when the exchange rate was just above $3,000 per coin in March? These sort of predictions only come out when BTC suddenly goes up by 200% or 300%. IMO, the next bull run should take us to $50,000 per coin, and there is a very good chance of that occurring during this year itself.

The predictions are always vague generally like 100k, etc which does not seems to be realistic in this junction. Yes market will rise and will grow for sure but realistically speaking those are the danger prices and will fall drastically before even reaching half of those prices. Yes a prior prediction is always welcome though.

[rodel caling]

Let's wait if this analysis come true, I think positive that bitcoin is giving sign good indicator to reach 21,000$ or more than that price, but not over to 30,000$. 40,000$ are possible to hit 1 to 3 years from  now.

[roosbit]

Well there are too few bitcoins to go around for everyone in the world. And the fact that coins are limited in supply this ensures prices/(value) remains relatively high for its hodlers and general users.
If a price is to be put on bitcoin a million dollars wouldn't be bad  but since cryptocurrencies are still new to most countries $100k is good enough for me.

[Schirer]

McAfee is a complete lunatic, ignore this drug abuser and fraudster. Trace is quite a respected entity within the space with solid investments contributing to what he believe will work towards a better and more secure ecosystem. I add more value to what he says than anybody else throwing with predictions left and right.

Could not agree more, IDK why people like to follow this guy and his comments at all.

Dont know how it is possible to use " fair value" in any market . I believe that current price action could actually indicate that BTC will go higher not lower. The number 21'000 is weird, I think that if BTC breaks the last high, it will go higher than just 1'000 over the last record.

[gabbie2010]

Let's wait if this analysis come true, I think positive that bitcoin is giving sign good indicator to reach 21,000$ or more than that price, but not over to 30,000$. 40,000$ are possible to hit 1 to 3 years from  now.

Honestly a price mark of $21,000 at the end of the year is quite reasonable and feasible judging by the bullish sentiment of the market, in February the price of bitcoin was $3300+ and after gaining its volatility and momentum the price presently is at $11400+ if the performance is measured within that time frame while the bullish trend is sustained obviously reaching that price as predicted by Trace Mayer will come to pass.
Trace Mayer used Technical Analysis to predict how the price is going to move based on moving average which is a very reliable indicator on a higher time frame and speculating $30,000 to $40,000 in span of years is obviously realistic.