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If four years will suffice, then there are a couple of recent posts from my local board that show you returns in a four year period:
These charts give you a bird’s eye view of the rolling returns after 4 years:
And this table depicts the information selecting one day per week from 2011-10-17 onwards:
Me ha gustado eso de "rolling 4 year return". Básicamente, a 4 años vista no se entra en números rojos nunca. Me he sacado los datos en texto (semanalmente, usando 4*52=208 semanas de diferencia, datos de bitstampUSD en bitcoincharts):
2011-09-12 4.87 => 2015-09-07 234.79: 4721% ===============================================
2011-09-19 5.68 => 2015-09-14 230.00: 3949% =======================================
2011-09-26 4.82 => 2015-09-21 233.81: 4751% ===============================================
2011-10-03 3.99 => 2015-09-28 238.95: 5889% ==========================================================
2011-10-10 4.05 => 2015-10-05 245.71: 5967% ===========================================================
2011-10-17 2.27 => 2015-10-12 270.07: 11797% =====================================================================================================================
2011-10-24 3.95 => 2015-10-19 282.84: 7061% ======================================================================
2011-10-31 3.00 => 2015-10-26 310.18: 10239% ======================================================================================================
2011-11-07 3.35 => 2015-11-02 383.53: 11349% =================================================================================================================
2011-11-14 2.43 => 2015-11-09 333.00: 13604% ========================================================================================================================================
2011-11-21 2.77 => 2015-11-16 326.50: 11687% ====================================================================================================================
2011-11-28 2.93 => 2015-11-23 356.95: 12083% ========================================================================================================================
2011-12-05 3.20 => 2015-11-30 388.00: 12025% ========================================================================================================================
2011-12-12 3.44 => 2015-12-07 436.19: 12580% =============================================================================================================================
2011-12-19 4.33 => 2015-12-14 461.80: 10565% =========================================================================================================
2011-12-26 4.58 => 2015-12-21 417.39: 9013% ==========================================================================================
2012-01-02 6.80 => 2015-12-28 433.55: 6276% ==============================================================
2012-01-09 6.30 => 2016-01-04 448.84: 7024% ======================================================================
2012-01-16 6.77 => 2016-01-11 386.91: 5615% ========================================================
2012-01-23 4.91 => 2016-01-18 386.40: 7770% =============================================================================
2012-01-30 5.94 => 2016-01-25 375.64: 6224% ==============================================================
2012-02-06 5.50 => 2016-02-01 375.39: 6725% ===================================================================
2012-02-13 4.23 => 2016-02-08 390.99: 9143% ===========================================================================================
2012-02-20 5.00 => 2016-02-15 434.63: 8593% =====================================================================================
2012-02-27 4.65 => 2016-02-22 431.07: 9170% ===========================================================================================
2012-03-05 4.94 => 2016-02-29 399.83: 7994% ===============================================================================
2012-03-12 5.42 => 2016-03-07 410.90: 7481% ==========================================================================
2012-03-19 4.83 => 2016-03-14 409.04: 8369% ===================================================================================
2012-03-26 4.90 => 2016-03-21 416.96: 8409% ====================================================================================
2012-04-02 4.70 => 2016-03-28 419.00: 8815% ========================================================================================
2012-04-09 4.96 => 2016-04-04 418.24: 8332% ===================================================================================
2012-04-16 5.24 => 2016-04-11 430.69: 8119% =================================================================================
2012-04-23 4.91 => 2016-04-18 451.92: 9104% ===========================================================================================
2012-04-30 5.04 => 2016-04-25 448.37: 8796% =======================================================================================
2012-05-07 4.91 => 2016-05-02 458.07: 9229% ============================================================================================
2012-05-14 5.07 => 2016-05-09 455.57: 8886% ========================================================================================
2012-05-21 5.07 => 2016-05-16 443.31: 8644% ======================================================================================
2012-05-28 5.19 => 2016-05-23 519.41: 9908% ===================================================================================================
2012-06-04 5.48 => 2016-05-30 573.80: 10371% =======================================================================================================
2012-06-11 6.41 => 2016-06-06 610.00: 9416% ==============================================================================================
2012-06-18 6.45 => 2016-06-13 754.83: 11603% ====================================================================================================================
2012-06-25 6.61 => 2016-06-20 659.86: 9883% ==================================================================================================
2012-07-02 6.79 => 2016-06-27 702.48: 10246% ======================================================================================================
2012-07-09 7.55 => 2016-07-04 647.78: 8480% ====================================================================================
2012-07-16 8.74 => 2016-07-11 662.45: 7480% ==========================================================================
2012-07-23 8.88 => 2016-07-18 655.52: 7282% ========================================================================
2012-07-30 10.51 => 2016-07-25 654.67: 6129% =============================================================
2012-08-06 11.38 => 2016-08-01 589.48: 5080% ==================================================
2012-08-13 11.54 => 2016-08-08 583.52: 4956% =================================================
2012-08-20 10.57 => 2016-08-15 577.88: 5367% =====================================================
2012-08-27 9.91 => 2016-08-22 568.31: 5635% ========================================================
2012-09-03 10.97 => 2016-08-29 595.01: 5324% =====================================================
2012-09-10 11.63 => 2016-09-05 621.65: 5245% ====================================================
2012-09-17 11.97 => 2016-09-12 604.10: 4947% =================================================
2012-09-24 12.28 => 2016-09-19 599.33: 4781% ===============================================
2012-10-01 12.39 => 2016-09-26 612.98: 4847% ================================================
2012-10-08 11.85 => 2016-10-03 614.34: 5084% ==================================================
2012-10-15 11.60 => 2016-10-10 635.96: 5382% =====================================================
2012-10-22 10.43 => 2016-10-17 654.52: 6175% =============================================================
2012-10-29 10.66 => 2016-10-24 711.13: 6571% =================================================================
2012-11-05 10.81 => 2016-10-31 703.46: 6407% ================================================================
2012-11-12 11.57 => 2016-11-07 702.28: 5970% ===========================================================
2012-11-19 12.25 => 2016-11-14 750.75: 6029% ============================================================
2012-11-26 12.34 => 2016-11-21 729.91: 5815% ==========================================================
2012-12-03 13.36 => 2016-11-28 760.75: 5594% =======================================================
2012-12-10 13.38 => 2016-12-05 772.28: 5672% ========================================================
2012-12-17 13.20 => 2016-12-12 788.52: 5874% ==========================================================
2012-12-24 13.22 => 2016-12-19 892.61: 6652% ==================================================================
2012-12-31 13.15 => 2016-12-26 966.30: 7248% ========================================================================
2013-01-07 13.89 => 2017-01-02 906.20: 6424% ================================================================
2013-01-14 15.38 => 2017-01-09 818.27: 5220% ====================================================
2013-01-21 17.49 => 2017-01-16 921.98: 5171% ===================================================
2013-01-28 19.82 => 2017-01-23 918.60: 4535% =============================================
2013-02-04 23.14 => 2017-01-30 1033.18: 4365% ===========================================
2013-02-11 27.50 => 2017-02-06 1012.40: 3581% ===================================
2013-02-18 29.54 => 2017-02-13 1056.40: 3476% ==================================
2013-02-25 34.16 => 2017-02-20 1152.20: 3273% ================================
2013-03-04 46.00 => 2017-02-27 1260.00: 2639% ==========================
2013-03-11 46.74 => 2017-03-06 1176.55: 2417% ========================
2013-03-18 63.90 => 2017-03-13 969.40: 1417% ==============
2013-03-25 92.11 => 2017-03-20 956.02: 938% =========
2013-04-01 141.00 => 2017-03-27 1083.94: 669% ======
2013-04-08 91.64 => 2017-04-03 1184.03: 1192% ===========
2013-04-15 126.55 => 2017-04-10 1173.45: 827% ========
2013-04-22 128.80 => 2017-04-17 1233.20: 857% ========
2013-04-29 112.62 => 2017-04-24 1333.00: 1084% ==========
2013-05-06 115.04 => 2017-05-01 1558.02: 1254% ============
2013-05-13 118.49 => 2017-05-08 1776.89: 1400% =============
2013-05-20 128.97 => 2017-05-15 2013.99: 1462% ==============
2013-05-27 128.77 => 2017-05-22 2042.00: 1486% ==============
2013-06-03 109.11 => 2017-05-29 2540.94: 2229% ======================
2013-06-10 99.42 => 2017-06-05 2899.99: 2817% ============================
2013-06-17 100.00 => 2017-06-12 2630.00: 2530% =========================
2013-06-24 88.98 => 2017-06-19 2557.66: 2774% ===========================
2013-07-01 66.34 => 2017-06-26 2412.41: 3536% ===================================
2013-07-08 91.67 => 2017-07-03 2550.07: 2682% ==========================
2013-07-15 85.04 => 2017-07-10 1970.51: 2217% ======================
2013-07-22 88.16 => 2017-07-17 2832.71: 3113% ===============================
2013-07-29 95.55 => 2017-07-24 2680.56: 2705% ===========================
2013-08-05 93.51 => 2017-07-31 3263.62: 3390% =================================
2013-08-12 99.71 => 2017-08-07 3855.10: 3766% =====================================
2013-08-19 109.15 => 2017-08-14 4099.55: 3656% ====================================
2013-08-26 128.00 => 2017-08-21 4333.38: 3285% ================================
2013-09-02 119.93 => 2017-08-28 4599.90: 3735% =====================================
2013-09-09 124.49 => 2017-09-04 4308.72: 3361% =================================
2013-09-16 123.39 => 2017-09-11 3678.93: 2882% ============================
2013-09-23 126.54 => 2017-09-18 3779.17: 2887% ============================
2013-09-30 121.20 => 2017-09-25 4326.09: 3469% ==================================
2013-10-07 127.98 => 2017-10-02 4423.30: 3356% =================================
2013-10-14 166.00 => 2017-10-09 5801.29: 3395% =================================
2013-10-21 179.56 => 2017-10-16 6013.46: 3249% ================================
2013-10-28 204.86 => 2017-10-23 5730.69: 2697% ==========================
2013-11-04 341.24 => 2017-10-30 7388.83: 2065% ====================
2013-11-11 434.53 => 2017-11-06 6355.13: 1363% =============
2013-11-18 829.15 => 2017-11-13 7771.03: 837% ========
2013-11-25 1119.52 => 2017-11-20 8717.99: 679% ======
2013-12-02 693.30 => 2017-11-27 10872.00: 1468% ==============
2013-12-09 850.78 => 2017-12-04 14607.49: 1617% ================
2013-12-16 595.03 => 2017-12-11 19187.78: 3125% ===============================
2013-12-23 715.00 => 2017-12-18 14619.00: 1945% ===================
2013-12-30 828.79 => 2017-12-25 12640.00: 1425% ==============
2014-01-06 896.59 => 2018-01-01 17149.67: 1813% ==================
2014-01-13 810.00 => 2018-01-08 14197.78: 1653% ================
2014-01-20 806.80 => 2018-01-15 12775.99: 1484% ==============
2014-01-27 813.23 => 2018-01-22 11446.54: 1308% =============
2014-02-03 680.49 => 2018-01-29 9225.86: 1256% ============
2014-02-10 655.83 => 2018-02-05 8560.00: 1205% ============
2014-02-17 610.88 => 2018-02-12 11101.00: 1717% =================
2014-02-24 567.48 => 2018-02-19 9689.99: 1608% ================
2014-03-03 620.00 => 2018-02-26 11445.00: 1746% =================
2014-03-10 637.24 => 2018-03-05 8791.47: 1280% ============
2014-03-17 565.31 => 2018-03-12 7860.83: 1291% ============
2014-03-24 491.99 => 2018-03-19 8547.00: 1637% ================
2014-03-31 464.80 => 2018-03-26 6928.62: 1391% =============
2014-04-07 423.42 => 2018-04-02 6904.90: 1531% ===============
2014-04-14 503.80 => 2018-04-09 8000.41: 1488% ==============
2014-04-21 459.00 => 2018-04-16 8920.71: 1844% ==================
2014-04-28 439.00 => 2018-04-23 9345.11: 2029% ====================
2014-05-05 455.39 => 2018-04-30 9823.28: 2057% ====================
2014-05-12 449.06 => 2018-05-07 8481.60: 1789% =================
2014-05-19 528.44 => 2018-05-14 8231.20: 1458% ==============
2014-05-26 627.80 => 2018-05-21 7335.99: 1069% ==========
2014-06-02 657.13 => 2018-05-28 7642.00: 1063% ==========
2014-06-09 566.58 => 2018-06-04 7492.70: 1222% ============
2014-06-16 591.29 => 2018-06-11 6487.92: 997% =========
2014-06-23 589.56 => 2018-06-18 6177.38: 948% =========
2014-06-30 630.00 => 2018-06-25 6385.71: 914% =========
2014-07-07 638.10 => 2018-07-02 6759.99: 959% =========
2014-07-14 628.63 => 2018-07-09 6243.98: 893% ========
2014-07-21 596.23 => 2018-07-16 7409.92: 1143% ===========
2014-07-28 589.59 => 2018-07-23 8237.74: 1297% ============
2014-08-04 587.97 => 2018-07-30 7009.99: 1092% ==========
2014-08-11 521.97 => 2018-08-06 6239.98: 1095% ==========
2014-08-18 497.00 => 2018-08-13 6399.28: 1188% ===========
2014-08-25 500.85 => 2018-08-20 6732.40: 1244% ============
2014-09-01 479.78 => 2018-08-27 7185.01: 1398% =============
2014-09-08 477.98 => 2018-09-03 6178.31: 1193% ===========
2014-09-15 408.76 => 2018-09-10 6520.15: 1495% ==============
2014-09-22 401.77 => 2018-09-17 6710.01: 1570% ===============
2014-09-29 326.21 => 2018-09-24 6579.38: 1917% ===================
2014-10-06 362.00 => 2018-10-01 6544.08: 1708% =================
2014-10-13 390.58 => 2018-10-08 6199.69: 1487% ==============
2014-10-20 348.69 => 2018-10-15 6412.86: 1739% =================
2014-10-27 324.70 => 2018-10-22 6407.66: 1873% ==================
2014-11-03 345.39 => 2018-10-29 6335.00: 1734% =================
2014-11-10 376.99 => 2018-11-05 6349.32: 1584% ===============
2014-11-17 353.12 => 2018-11-12 5503.36: 1458% ==============
2014-11-24 375.49 => 2018-11-19 3785.65: 908% =========
2014-12-01 374.38 => 2018-11-26 4140.39: 1006% ==========
2014-12-08 351.67 => 2018-12-03 3398.80: 866% ========
2014-12-15 331.79 => 2018-12-10 3179.54: 858% ========
2014-12-22 316.47 => 2018-12-17 3980.90: 1158% ===========
2014-12-29 282.00 => 2018-12-24 3725.48: 1221% ============
2015-01-05 275.59 => 2018-12-31 3791.84: 1276% ============
2015-01-12 199.69 => 2019-01-07 3617.13: 1711% =================
2015-01-19 249.19 => 2019-01-14 3681.00: 1377% =============
2015-01-26 216.90 => 2019-01-21 3555.56: 1539% ===============
2015-02-02 228.30 => 2019-01-28 3462.82: 1417% ==============
2015-02-09 256.99 => 2019-02-04 3622.62: 1310% =============
2015-02-16 245.41 => 2019-02-11 3579.92: 1359% =============
2015-02-23 253.47 => 2019-02-18 4113.53: 1523% ===============
2015-03-02 276.71 => 2019-02-25 3810.46: 1277% ============
2015-03-09 282.01 => 2019-03-04 3916.43: 1289% ============
2015-03-16 260.00 => 2019-03-11 3990.00: 1435% ==============
2015-03-23 252.87 => 2019-03-18 3982.52: 1475% ==============
2015-03-30 253.70 => 2019-03-25 4094.92: 1514% ===============
2015-04-06 236.15 => 2019-04-01 5041.39: 2035% ====================
2015-04-13 223.40 => 2019-04-08 5063.63: 2167% =====================
2015-04-20 226.12 => 2019-04-15 5318.89: 2252% ======================
2015-04-27 233.83 => 2019-04-22 5168.91: 2111% =====================
2015-05-04 241.96 => 2019-04-29 5764.65: 2282% ======================
2015-05-11 235.66 => 2019-05-06 7217.47: 2963% =============================
2015-05-18 237.76 => 2019-05-13 7260.12: 2954% =============================
2015-05-25 232.11 => 2019-05-20 8064.64: 3374% =================================
2015-06-01 224.99 => 2019-05-27 8556.27: 3703% =====================================
2015-06-08 231.64 => 2019-06-03 7932.27: 3324% =================================
2015-06-15 244.76 => 2019-06-10 8857.19: 3519% ===================================
2015-06-22 251.21 => 2019-06-17 10661.30: 4144% =========================================
2015-06-29 260.20 => 2019-06-24 12755.99: 4802% ================================================
Puede verse que, si bien estamos bastante burbujosos últimamente, los rendimientos ya no son los que eran en Aquellos Maravillosos Años. Y si además de bitstamp cogemos datos de mtgox entonces aparecen unos rendimientos de 1.000.000% que me estropean del todo la cutre gráfica
(excepto que la ponga logarítmica pero meh)
Si en lugar de 4 años (208 semanas) usamos 3 años (156 semanas), ya sí que hay algunos períodos de estar en rojo, a finales de 2016:
2013-11-18 829.15 => 2016-11-14 750.75: -9%
2013-11-25 1119.52 => 2016-11-21 729.91: -35%
2013-12-09 850.78 => 2016-12-05 772.28: -9%
El período de hodl más largo en el que se entra en rojo aunque solo sea un momentito es de 174 semanas (3 años y 4 meses):
2013-11-25 1119.52 => 2017-03-27 1083.94: -3%
Es decir: que en el pasado, quien haya comprado, esperado 175 semanas (o más) y evaluado su posición, por mucho que haya entrado en el tope de la burbuja de los 1000 USD, nunca habrá visto números rojos.
The above post is in Spanish, but the first table with numeric data is self-explanatory. All 4 year rolling periods considered have a positive outcome. The second table (with only three rows) depicts the only three cases that would have a negative return if we consider a 3 year rolling period (instead of four years).
The last table (1 row) shows the only week measure that gives a negative return after 174 weeks of HODL. Anything above 174 weeks gave a positive return.
