prediction charts to help hodlers on when to sell and rebuy bitcoin

[btcbeliever]

I have seen various multi-year log charts showing a high and low line, and a line in the middle.  Sometimes these lines are drawn straight, sometimes curved with it flattenng  out more as time goes by.   On one there was a website witn a mathematical calculation telling you what the 'fair market value' of bitcoin was on any given day.  I have seen these posts in the wall observer thread over the years.

For anyone who knows where to find these charts, that help to predict when we are greatly over or undervalued in bitcoin, could you post links here in this topic?

 I've been in bitcoin since early 2013, and through all those run-ups followed by 75%+ crashes I've held my bitcoin.  But after the 2013 runup/crash, and long wait afterwards, I don't want to be still holding most of my bitcoin on the next market peak, nor be short on bitcoin-generated fiat profits to rebuy bitcoin when it hits the lows.

thanks!

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[Dogboy714]

All u really need -> https://twitter.com/100trillionusd?lang=en

Sell when orange, though a lot of front running seems to be occurring this time around. Stock to flow is something you should read up on...

Or this guy - he's fairly conservative in his views, but solid charts.

https://twitter.com/davthewave

[el kaka22]

I think there is no calculation that can tell you if we are overvaluing bitcoin or undervaluing it at any exact moment. You know why? Because, bitcoin has only one value and that is what people make it out to be, if we all collectively think bitcoin worth 20k then it will be 20k, if we all collectively think its 5k then it will be 5k.

So, the only thing that will make bitcoin go up and down is what people thing it worth and that is why it can never be overvalued or undervalued at all, it will always be precisely valued at any second. Plus charts can calculate only so much and can be half wrong because people may change their minds because of something unexpected and suddenly we would be low or high again, that is why it is so volatile because people can change their minds very quickly.

[JayJuanGee]

I think there is no calculation that can tell you if we are overvaluing bitcoin or undervaluing it at any exact moment. You know why? Because, bitcoin has only one value and that is what people make it out to be, if we all collectively think bitcoin worth 20k then it will be 20k, if we all collectively think its 5k then it will be 5k.

So, the only thing that will make bitcoin go up and down is what people thing it worth and that is why it can never be overvalued or undervalued at all, it will always be precisely valued at any second. Plus charts can calculate only so much and can be half wrong because people may change their minds because of something unexpected and suddenly we would be low or high again, that is why it is so volatile because people can change their minds very quickly.

I largely agree with you, el kaka22, but there still seems to be more to price evaluation rather than what the vast majority of people think, no?

And, doesn't it seem that btcbeliever is asking a bit of a different question regarding how s/he can attempt to time the top, which seems to be a bit of a fools errand, in my thinking.

Personally, I believe that each of us has to figure out our own pricing points in which we might want to shave off profits from our BTC, whether we make BIG shaving off plays or more incremental shaving off plays.

Personally, I subscribe to a kind of incrementalism approach to my BTC stash.  I invested in BTC for the longer term, yet I don't mind to shave off some profits, here and there, and to use those profits to buy back some BTC in the event that its price goes down (which seems to be a near inevitable likelihood with such an emerging market, namely the market that is developing around bitcoin). 

So anyhow, whether people believe in bitcoin or not, there are going to be other people (bear whales and bull whales) who attempt to manipulate the BTC price for as long and as far as they possibly can, so in those kinds of instances, the actual BTC price might not exactly reflect how people feel about bitcoin's price, but instead reflect a series of forces, including some folks who are attempting to manipulate both price and sentiment, and sometimes, we witness that those attempting to manipulate BTC's price down and to keep it down for as long as they can, run out of an ability to keep the price down, so in that regard, we will see a kind of explosion to the upside, which happens so fast and goes so far that such high prices cannot be sustained, either, and those resulting high prices don't necessarily reflect overall sentiment either, even though they might be sustained for a considerable amount of time until the price drops back down and buying support catches back up.. ... and each of the BTC price points of price support or even unsustainability tends to be difficult to figure out with any kind of precision.

Consider late 2017, a lot of folks considered prices between $5k and $10k to be a kind of absolute max for bitcoin during those times, yet she shot up to nearly $20k.. and it is also possible that BTC prices could have doubled again during that time to $40k, so it was quite difficult to really know exactly when the BTC price was going to reverse or how severe the reversal and the correction was going to be.

Surely, el kaka22, we are saying similar things, but I do think that BTC's price reflection is more than current sentiments, even while it remains prudent to attempt to factor in current sentiments when attempting to figure out the extent to which BTC might be over or under priced. and perhaps to shave off a bit more during what seems to be an overpriced period and perhaps to buy a bit more during a period that seems to be underpriced, even if we might not be able to know with any kind of precision what is the top or the bottom for that particular price cycle.

[btcbeliever]

I agree, there is no way to exactly predict at what price to sell all one's bitcoin at any particular time.  What I am looking for is a disciplined approach I can commit to ahead of time, because it is very hard emotionally to sell when it is increasing parabolically.  At the end of 2017 I only sold about 15% of my holdings before the 75% price decline, so next time I want to have price levels I'd update every couple of weeks, where I would sell 10%, 30%, 50% and 70%, maybe up to 90% if it really goes nuts.  Then, after the big decline, I would diversify back into bitcoin, maybe 50% of my assets.

[JayJuanGee]

I agree, there is no way to exactly predict at what price to sell all one's bitcoin at any particular time.  What I am looking for is a disciplined approach I can commit to ahead of time, because it is very hard emotionally to sell when it is increasing parabolically.  At the end of 2017 I only sold about 15% of my holdings before the 75% price decline, so next time I want to have price levels I'd update every couple of weeks, where I would sell 10%, 30%, 50% and 70%, maybe up to 90% if it really goes nuts.  Then, after the big decline, I would diversify back into bitcoin, maybe 50% of my assets.

Those all sound like fair questions and fair parameters.  Selling 15% during the last up cycle to $19,666 was not too bad, either. 

Yeah, of course, we saw a subsequent correction of 85% down to $3,122, so even if you had sold a much larger portion of your BTC, it might have been quite difficult to figure out exactly, when to get back in whether in the $10k range, or supra $6k or the ultimate bottom area of the $3,xxx arena.     Many folks would likely have gone nearly "all in" in the supra $6k arena, but surely you would have still been better off than hanging onto 85% of your stash, and having only 15% with which to buy back. 

I think that almost no matter what you do, you are going to have some difficulties timing comfort points. 

Let's take my situation as an example, I tend to sell a small portion all the way UP and then to use my sold BTC proceeds to buy back BTC on the way up.  I did not become too anxious about my situation, even though I sold a whole hell of a lot less than you on the way up to $19,666, and I bought back way higher than probably I should have, too, but I don't feel any real regrets.  Of course, I tweaked my system a little bit, but I did not make any major changes because largely I am comfortable with whatever level of correction is going to happen, and I feel no need to attempt to second guess or to sell my BTC in the event the price goes up rather than down.

So, in my case, I sold only about 12% on the way up to $19,666, and by the time the price dropped back down to $10k, I had used more than 50% of my sales proceeds to buy back, so in the remainder drop from $10k down to $3k, I used about 40% of the original amount to buy back and by the time we got to the bottom, I only had about 10% in reserve to continue to buy back in the event that the BTC price would continue to fall.  I am not exactly disappointed, even though I found some small ways of tweaking to help me to, perhaps, feel a little better on the next go around of UP and DOWN, assuming that they occur again in ways that are a bit difficult to predict, just like the last one had.

So, I guess, my point is that I am changing my price points, percentages and intervals a little bit without any kind of attempt to pinpoint various price points in which to attempt to take larger actions, such as selling more, as you seem inclined to want to do.  Also, I am not locked into my tentative plan, so we will see if I change my mind, this time around, and perhaps tweak a bit more than I had previously contemplated.  I will admit that there can be some level of reasonable spontaneity in any kind of plan, too.  One thing that can make a considerable amount of comfort too, is to have a decent level of equity that has already been built up in the value of the stash that is being held, such as already being 3x, 5x, 10x, 30x or 80x in profits above the initial investment amount.

Based on some of my own mistakes, I think that my highest profit point had never quite reached 20x, but after the 2018 correction, I had never really gone below 4x either, but you can likely recognize a considerable difference between being 20x in profits and 4x in profits, too... but I attempted NOT to let that affect my thinking too much, and part of the reason would likely be to have a decent amount of confidence in the strength of the underlying asset (BTC in this case), which, concededly, is not necessarily an easy kind of psychological posture to maintain.

[WinslowIII]

1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin. If you are only trying to make more fiat using bitcoin as a tool, then fuck you figure it out for yourself.

[omonuyak]

Bitcoin to fiat trading has helped me of recent and i only do this for now because of how risky it is to invest in ico or altcoins market. However, accurately knowing when to sell or buy has been a very serious problem to every traders be it trading in stocks, commodities, forex or crypto. This actually depend on the level of you understanding of risk and how you think you can play around it.

[btcbeliever]

1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin. If you are only trying to make more fiat using bitcoin as a tool, then [explitive deleted] figure it out for yourself.

Why the hostility?  There is a definite historic pattern of repeated 75-85% declines in btc/usd price, and I've owned my stash since April 2013, and finally after 5 years, it dawned on me that it makes a lot more sense to have almost all bitcoin sold when a parabolic rise comes to an ending, and have the intended btc position purchase start back again, gradually when about 75% below the all time high.

If every investor did this, I wonder if there would be alot less of these wild swings, and bitcoin adoption of an investment would be accelerated.

Whether I am trying to make more fiat, or real-estate, or fiat-based investment securities I don't think is relevant.  At this phase of bitcoin adoption, anyone who keeps 100% of their assets in btc all the time and never owns fiat I believe is unwise.

[btcbeliever]

Selling 15% during the last up cycle to $19,666 was not too bad, either. 

But it has left me extremely overweighted still in bitcoin, so that it was inprudent to purchase any additional bitcoin during the extended 2018 bear market.   This is the situation I seek to avoid repeating on the next bull market fomo frenzy, that almost certainly will come in the next year or two.

[BitHodler]

But it has left me extremely overweighted still in bitcoin, so that it was inprudent to purchase any additional bitcoin during the extended 2018 bear market.   This is the situation I seek to avoid repeating on the next bull market fomo frenzy, that almost certainly will come in the next year or two.

15% is what I consider a fair amount as a hodler. I honestly wouldn't be interested to sell more than that because I'm here for the very long term, and you can't possibly know that the price will go lower until it does so.

People on social media boast about how they sold the exact peak (which I honestly doubt, especially at the very peak it's so unlikely), while the prices could have gone well past the $30k mark as well.

Overall, we can only say how we handle things ourselves, but if you really believe the peak is near and 15% is a little too conservative to cash out based on the previous bull run, then go for 25-30%. Definitely not more than 50%.

[bitbunnny]

The longer I'm involved with Bitcoin the less I trust prediction charts. To my opinion it's not good to rely on them too much, that might get you the feeling that you know what exactly is going to happen on the market and we know that is not true.
No one can't say you when to sell and when to hold, it's your own decision based on your own estimation.

[UnDerDoG81]

I am in the same position as you. Got in Bitcoin in 2013 and hodled for 6 years now, not selling anything. But at some point you should take profits and start to live instead of dreaming to get wealthier and wealthier but live a poor life. You never know when is your last day on earth. Will sell 75% if we ever hit 50k. 25% still good if we hit a million one day  

[btcbeliever]

Another consideration about what percentage of BTC to hold is one's age. My children are in their early 20's, but I am in my early 60's.  If Stock to flow model predicts a $3,000,000 price per bitcoin in 2028, that might be significant for my children, but since I'll be in my 70's by then, there very well may be alot of regret that I did not sell more bitcoin sooner.  And, as you point out underdog81, regardless of age, none of us know when our days on this earth will end, it could occur tomorrow today.

I have a father in law who seemingly ridicules why anyone would hold onto bitcoin after they have the valuation of bitcoin I currently have accumulated.  From his perspective, it is pointless at an older age to continue to accumulate.  I think some holders like me succumb to a psycological illness, to acquire more and more and more, out of greed?  or out of a desire to help bitcoin succeed as a store of value?  or to stick to the philosophy of holding through thick and thin that got us to this point, and unable to really switch gears.