Calm down.

[Qoheleth]

It feels like every six hours I see a fresh "news" article on my feed about how "the bubble is on" or "BTC has crashed" because of a 15-20% price motion.

I worry that these people are missing a history lesson.

Here's the period between the 2011 and 2013 bubbles:



So the 2011 bubble follows a pattern that even new folks, who joined in 2017, should recognize: a dizzying rise, followed by a year of gradual, painful losses.

But between when the price hit bottom (when six figures of BTC changed hands at the $2 pricepoint), and when the 2014 bubble began, there was a third pattern: long periods of relative stability (with fluctuations in the 20% range), punctuated by brief bullish periods (Dec 2011 bringing us to a semi-stable $5, July 2012 bringing us to a semi-stable $13, and the time spent around $100 in mid-2013).

As an example, we can zoom in on the $5 period:

Clearly, there are big daily moves going on here! Imagine what people might have been thinking on March 19th, or April 20th!
But in the end, these moves were just a random walk around a somewhat stable price.

Similar behavior can be found in the 2015-2016 chart, after 2014's despair had run its course but before 2017's fever began.



This historical behavior, to me, implies two things:
1) For cryptocurrency as it is today, even "stability" sees 20% fluctuations.
2) Months-long periods of this "stability" are normal; not everything is boom or bust.

So today, with prices going back and forth between (roughly) $11k and $13k, I can't help but think that folks who are taking every motion as an omen of a larger trend are wearing themselves out needlessly. This might just be the start of another stable period - a chance for the ecosystem to get comfortable with the idea that $12k is the "normal" price of a bitcoin.

Calm down. "It" doesn't have to happen today, or even this month. It'll happen when it happens.

[1714056590]

1714056590

[The Sceptical Chymist]

It feels like every six hours I see a fresh "news" article on my feed about how "the bubble is on" or "BTC has crashed" because of a 15-20% price motion.

I worry that these people are missing a history lesson.

You have to understand that the media outlets are in the business of creating news, even if there is no news.  Thus they make a huge thing out of nothing, and since bitcoin is a relatively new asset with huge volatility, they report on any big price swing.  You'll notice that even when the stock market ends the day completely flat, they'll still look for reasons why and report them as if they mean anything.  This is why I don't follow the news, any news, except for what I gather here on the forum.

The charts look pretty good to me, by the way.  Doesn't appear bitcoin is in bubble territory, though I'm hoping it doesn't rise much higher too quickly.

[harizen]

About the news, it's part of the usual system. Since bitcoin is one of the trends in the world of economics, there should always be a feed on it regularly.

About some individuals, these people are only looking on a single and not on a whole forest. They worried too much about how the price decrease without realizing how much it grows prior to price dip.

... a chance for the ecosystem to get comfortable with the idea that $12k is the "normal" price of a bitcoin.

This.

Average bitcoiner should be happy that the price didn't go on a full blast to the highest floors.

Forming a new decent bottom is way more good to happen first so that we won't see again that $3,000+ bottom floor which is the end of the chain link when the price starts to crash from $20,000.

$12,000 as bottom - brace yourselves guys for what will happen next if that will able to sustain.

[arpon11]

Yesterday, Bitcoin started very well in the morning before the comments by Powell on libra coin , push the price down to below $11200 from $13,116 as at the time the news about his comments hit the media. Today he has also testified before the Senate and make a comments that should push bitcoin upward and you can watch him here: https://youtu.be/iSRfoBp_Fq0?t=622. I see this as a confirmation from him that bitcoin is as good as gold and it is here to stay. After watch this record on YouTube I have calm my mind and I will like to joined op to encourage us that the up and down (fluctuations in price) we see happening now had been there before and we just need to calm ourself as the storm will continue. According to Powell ”Bitcoin is a speculative asset” and as such we should not expect it to be stable for long periods of time.

[Baofeng]

Yup, that's crypto media for us, every blip/glitch in the price is always reported but then with added hyperbole to hype their news articles. That's why you really need to learn to read between the lines, otherwise you will be suckered by the on-coming news in the ecosystem.

Let's this be a lessons for newbies or individual who wanted to enter, crypto journalism is bad and don't believed everything you read, use your common sense or at least investigate and learn to weed out fakes news and go to the source.

[bbc.reporter]

It is easy to disparage the media to calm down ourselves hehehe. However, we should also ask why bitcoin is beginning to approach near the volatility it had in the beginning of 2018.

I reckon it might be whales on high leverage trading again.

[pooya87]

sometimes i think some people see the market in black and white. it either has to be rising constantly and reach the "moon" or it has to drop constantly and "die"! it appears they can't see any middle ground where price is slowly rising with corrections on the way, or with moderately stable phase where we mostly have sideways action between a fixed max and min price, which in this case is between $10k and $13k.

in any case, excellent charts. thanks for posting an important part of history.

[Wind_FURY]

This historical behavior, to me, implies two things:
1) For cryptocurrency as it is today, even "stability" sees 20% fluctuations.
2) Months-long periods of this "stability" are normal; not everything is boom or bust.

That reminds me of a meme someone posted in WO. It was a picture of a very old man with white hair and a beard, and he was saying, "Who said trading Bitcoin was stressful? I'm only 23, and I feel great!" Hahaha.

[barota]

Calm down and stop buying at this crazy and expensive prices
Every day .. a coin deleted or added from exhanges Because pumps of bitcoin
bitcoin will crash soon

[rdluffy]

For me BTC is very strong at the moment, it's holding more than 11k, no 10k for a few days, it's a great signal
People acts like crazy about these dips of 10% or 15%, commom guys, it's normal

Calm down and stop buying at this crazy and expensive prices
Every day .. a coin deleted or added from exhanges Because pumps of bitcoin
bitcoin will crash soon

Oh no, please, explain to me this, now I'm curious about such kind of theory 

Every day .. a coin deleted or added from exhanges Because pumps of bitcoin
bitcoin will crash soon

[proudhon]

The problem is that a new long term trend has been established as you can see in this confirmed ketchup & mustard analysis:

[FanEagle]

Look I am bullish on bitcoin as much as the next guy and I do feel like it will go up more than people even imagines but at the same time looking back on history and hoping that it will do the same thing is quite wrong. This is bitcoin, it can go up or it can go down but it doesn't have to do it in the same way that it has happened before, it could do it much differently this time around.

How 2011 increase was different from 2014 and 2014 was different from 2017, this could be different from all others as well. That is why even if you are bullish (or if you are bearish on bitcoin but then why are you here at all) then you should still not look back on the old charts and try to imagine what would happen if the same thing happened here, that is only assumption that might not happen and would ruin your predictions.

[1Referee]

News outlets just release news for the sake of releasing news. Price up = news article. Price down = news article. Stagnant price = news article. Speculation offers news outlets infinite possibilities of content whenever they feel it's time for another speculation/prediction article.

It's time for people to not get triggered by these articles so easily. In fact, I actually enjoy reading through some because of how poorly set up their are. It's hilarious reading through the analysis of a nobody over at a reputable news outlet just talking shit. The moral of the story is that no matter how long they have been reporting about crypto in general, they still don't get it. 

[bbc.reporter]

@1Referee. I reckon most of the bitcoin news websites might be similar to ICOs or altcoins. They will be insignificant after the hype has gone hehehe. How many of the are there spreading the same news with clickbait titles and lower quality? There are too many of them.

[Juggy777]

News outlets just release news for the sake of releasing news. Price up = news article. Price down = news article. Stagnant price = news article. Speculation offers news outlets infinite possibilities of content whenever they feel it's time for another speculation/prediction article.

It's time for people to not get triggered by these articles so easily. In fact, I actually enjoy reading through some because of how poorly set up their are. It's hilarious reading through the analysis of a nobody over at a reputable news outlet just talking shit. The moral of the story is that no matter how long they have been reporting about crypto in general, they still don't get it.  

News media outlets job is to create clickbait titles and spread hype among the masses, that’s how they’ll get unlimited traffic and revenues from advertisers. What is ironic is in the same day you’ll find them saying bitcoin bull rally has began, suddenly the prices fall down they’ll issue a fresh release and say avoid bitcoins. I’ll agree with you I too read it for the drama part, and not for the knowledge aspect because I find more knowledge in the forum then I find in those articles.

[bitcoinUF]

The problem is that a new long term trend has been established as you can see in this confirmed ketchup & mustard analysis:

Where's the hot dog ant the mayonnaise? 

[buwaytress]

We must be getting very very different feeds, actually, because my kind of news seems to be rather repetitive but in the almost opposite directions, since April decidedly bullish and that's okay (I still wish it weren't) but since June every 15 mins is some random idiot talking about 100k or 1 million or bull run now or FOMO is here... and they're still harping about it.

They should calm down too, but hey, we gotta have the worst of both worlds, right?

[bbc.reporter]

@bitcoinUF. I reckon he is from America not France hehehe.

@buwaytress. Agreed. However, never include Tom Lee in your list of random idiots. He is a special phenomenon like Gangnam style hehehehhe.

[Reid]

2k USD is a lot but with Bitcoin it is normal.

Some folks just don't see that specially with new ones getting invested in crypto currencies.
I guess we will have to give them a good lesson in history subject.

11k to 13k stability looks good to me. Rather than another fall will come and we will be spreading again looking for some reasons to why the hell it happened. Yeah, the word "correction" will be raped again.

Be aware with some news though. Some of them might be fake ones just for the comfort of the anchor to do his job even if there is no back up facts.

[davis196]

The experienced crypto traders are very calm.The newbies are the ones that panic and get excited really fast.Their excitement/panic is manipulated by lots of clickbait articles coming from the crypto news platforms.As we know,those websites are full of exaggerations,propaganda and clickbait shit,like "bitcoin is going to 100K next week".
I like your explanation of those historical price movements.