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Author Topic: Bitcoin Dominance rising again. What is happening?  (Read 898 times)
deisik
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July 31, 2019, 07:26:44 PM
 #41

Lessions learned, alts are never to come back.
At least: not these alts.

that is something that the newcomers who are now bag holding tons of different altcoins in their so called "portfolios" don't want to accept. some time ago someone posted a screenshot of coinmarketcap website that belonged to a couple of years ago. it was funny to see the "top" coins of that time and how they were hyped up so much and people were thinking they all are going to live side by side of bitcoin and there were even talk of "replacing" bitcoin! that list doesn't look anything like today's list but people still have the same expectations

I guess Litecoin is still there

And if we compare the recent bottoms of both coins (i.e. 22 dollars vs 3300), Litecoin is still outperforming Bitcoin overall. And this remains true even if we take into account that Litecoin has been losing to Bitcoin last weeks. Actually, with Litecoin halving coming in a couple days, it will likely surge again (and this surge may have already started, by the way). To sum it up, not all altcoins are born equal

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July 31, 2019, 10:03:13 PM
 #42

Lessions learned, alts are never to come back.
At least: not these alts.

that is something that the newcomers who are now bag holding tons of different altcoins in their so called "portfolios" don't want to accept. some time ago someone posted a screenshot of coinmarketcap website that belonged to a couple of years ago. it was funny to see the "top" coins of that time and how they were hyped up so much and people were thinking they all are going to live side by side of bitcoin and there were even talk of "replacing" bitcoin! that list doesn't look anything like today's list but people still have the same expectations

I guess Litecoin is still there

And if we compare the recent bottoms of both coins (i.e. 22 dollars vs 3300), Litecoin is still outperforming Bitcoin overall. And this remains true even if we take into account that Litecoin has been losing to Bitcoin last weeks. Actually, with Litecoin halving coming in a couple days, it will likely surge again (and this surge may have already started, by the way). To sum it up, not all altcoins are born equal

According to PlanB, as you can read on my June Report, halvening isn't having any measurable impact on Litecoin price, as opposed of what is happening for bitcoin.
Regarding the Litecoin overperforming BTC, welol, I can't see all this evidence:



Long gone are the days when LTC was "silver to Bitcoin Gold" or "Testbed for Bitcoin".
Now LTC is like every other shitcoin.



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July 31, 2019, 11:19:37 PM
 #43

Long gone are the days when LTC was "silver to Bitcoin Gold" or "Testbed for Bitcoin".
Now LTC is like every other shitcoin.

I'm pretty sure Litecoin will still be a testbed for Bitcoin and for that reason enjoy some degree of popularity, but it's definitely not the 'Silver' to Bitcoin, and it never has been. It was something made up by those supporting Litecoin to make it look cooler than it actually is.

In the end, Litecoin's all time charts are ugly af. It's extremely bearish when you 5 years later dump far below your 2013 high. Solid indication that you're dealing with rubbish here.

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August 01, 2019, 06:06:46 AM
 #44

After somedays of stable price, bitcoin has gotten a $10000+ which I think is a significant move. Domination is again increasing and altcoins are having so bad days. I think bitcoin will have a new ATH within this year.

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August 01, 2019, 09:15:42 AM
 #45

Long gone are the days when LTC was "silver to Bitcoin Gold" or "Testbed for Bitcoin".
Now LTC is like every other shitcoin.

I'm pretty sure Litecoin will still be a testbed for Bitcoin and for that reason enjoy some degree of popularity, but it's definitely not the 'Silver' to Bitcoin, and it never has been. It was something made up by those supporting Litecoin to make it look cooler than it actually is.

In the end, Litecoin's all time charts are ugly af. It's extremely bearish when you 5 years later dump far below your 2013 high. Solid indication that you're dealing with rubbish here.

So, as long we disagree on the premises of the reasoning (to me LTC is a all round shitcoin,for you it has validity as "Bitcoin Testbed") , we agree on the consequences (LTC is rubbish).
Well, it's a start!

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August 01, 2019, 05:54:23 PM
 #46

According to PlanB, as you can read on my June Report, halvening isn't having any measurable impact on Litecoin price, as opposed of what is happening for bitcoin.
Regarding the Litecoin overperforming BTC, welol, I can't see all this evidence:



Long gone are the days when LTC was "silver to Bitcoin Gold" or "Testbed for Bitcoin".
Now LTC is like every other shitcoin.

Except Litceoin massively outperformed the rest of the altcoin market recently. Look at the December-March period where it totally outperformed Bitcoin, too. This is the reason people started speculating the bull run was being driven by the LTC halving, because LTC's momentum was so strong.

As it turned out, too many people bought into the halvening hype and it didn't play out, but LTC was a great hold through Q1.

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August 01, 2019, 07:21:57 PM
 #47

According to PlanB, as you can read on my June Report, halvening isn't having any measurable impact on Litecoin price, as opposed of what is happening for bitcoin.
Regarding the Litecoin overperforming BTC, welol, I can't see all this evidence:



Long gone are the days when LTC was "silver to Bitcoin Gold" or "Testbed for Bitcoin".
Now LTC is like every other shitcoin.

Except Litceoin massively outperformed the rest of the altcoin market recently. Look at the December-March period where it totally outperformed Bitcoin, too. This is the reason people started speculating the bull run was being driven by the LTC halving, because LTC's momentum was so strong.

As it turned out, too many people bought into the halvening hype and it didn't play out, but LTC was a great hold through Q1.

LTC has for sure overperformed other altcoins, but has underperformed BTC. This is what we meant and why it is relevant for the subject of the thread: BTC dominance is relevant.
As already said: BTC halvening is irrelevant, who bought for this has of course bought a massive pump scheme.

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August 01, 2019, 11:42:12 PM
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 #48

So, as long we disagree on the premises of the reasoning (to me LTC is a all round shitcoin,for you it has validity as "Bitcoin Testbed") , we agree on the consequences (LTC is rubbish).
Well, it's a start!


I don't think there is much disagreement, because your point is valid too simply for the reason that we have a Bitcoin testnet for testing purposes, hence the name. It's just so that Charlie Lee has done a lot to make sure his coin will be the first to run certain implementations to see how they fare with mainnet use. It's a clever way to add some usefulness to Litecoin.

The major aspect that makes Litecoin valuable is its network effect. After by default listing Bitcoin and Ethereum, new exchanges are very likely to list Litecoin. It's too important as property and for that reason can't be ignored.

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August 03, 2019, 07:19:59 PM
 #49

And if we compare the recent bottoms of both coins (i.e. 22 dollars vs 3300), Litecoin is still outperforming Bitcoin overall. And this remains true even if we take into account that Litecoin has been losing to Bitcoin last weeks. Actually, with Litecoin halving coming in a couple days, it will likely surge again (and this surge may have already started, by the way). To sum it up, not all altcoins are born equal

I rather don't think one is entitled to use words like overall when we've chosen partial timescales. Fact is overall LTC has underperformed.
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August 04, 2019, 08:41:04 AM
 #50

Lessions learned, alts are never to come back.
At least: not these alts.

that is something that the newcomers who are now bag holding tons of different altcoins in their so called "portfolios" don't want to accept. some time ago someone posted a screenshot of coinmarketcap website that belonged to a couple of years ago. it was funny to see the "top" coins of that time and how they were hyped up so much and people were thinking they all are going to live side by side of bitcoin and there were even talk of "replacing" bitcoin! that list doesn't look anything like today's list but people still have the same expectations

I guess Litecoin is still there

And if we compare the recent bottoms of both coins (i.e. 22 dollars vs 3300), Litecoin is still outperforming Bitcoin overall. And this remains true even if we take into account that Litecoin has been losing to Bitcoin last weeks. Actually, with Litecoin halving coming in a couple days, it will likely surge again (and this surge may have already started, by the way). To sum it up, not all altcoins are born equal

According to PlanB, as you can read on my June Report, halvening isn't having any measurable impact on Litecoin price, as opposed of what is happening for bitcoin.
Regarding the Litecoin overperforming BTC, welol, I can't see all this evidence

I think we should compare within the period I specified

That is, the period from the recent bottoms (both Litecoin's and Bitcoin's earlier this year) till now, and within this period specifically Litecoin is still a better alternative to Bitcoin if you primarily aim for speculation. Regarding Litecoin halving, it is yet to happen (in a day or so), while its effect will take some time to reveal itself

And as I've written elsewhere, the decrease in the supply of new coins due to halving can't be fully priced in. It takes time to develop and affect the price for real (as it happened with Bitcoin in 2016). Long story short, it is the market which will decide on the fate of Litecoin (and Bitcoin too, for the record), not us writing here

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|ROULETTE
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August 04, 2019, 01:02:31 PM
 #51

Any of you guys come across this new dominance metric making its rounds on Twitter now?

Not sure of the exact source but been seeing it a couple of times now I think it was one of those media outlets strangely can't put a name to it right now. I'd post the Tweet if I could find it, was actually a series of Tweets/charts, comparing Bitcoin US dollar equivalent of monetary value to that of other countries. My search skill is bad =\

I recall it being even bigger than that of Malaysia and of 3 African countries combined. I know it's just a different way of calculating but I'd take it any time over crypto market cap!

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August 05, 2019, 04:46:36 PM
 #52

Little update.

Today Litecoin Halved.
A lot of hope was put in this event, but, as I predicted many times, nothing happened, as halving on LTC is meaningless, as SF model in LTC has very little correlation with price.
So, probably only a pump and dump trigger event.

Still LTC/BTC is flat on the day.

Bitcoin dominance is still rising and now at 67.7%.






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August 05, 2019, 04:59:09 PM
 #53

Little update.

Today Litecoin Halved.
A lot of hope was put in this event, but, as I predicted many times, nothing happened, as halving on LTC is meaningless, as SF model in LTC has very little correlation with price

It is not so much an event as a process, which will take time to develop

Though I understand that a 15% rise within a few hours is nothing out of the ordinary. Regardless, the reward has been halved and now we just have to wait patiently for a few months to see whether Litecoin halving is meaningless or not for its price. However, to claim that it won't have any effect on price is equal to claiming that supply doesn't affect it. For what it's worth, I don't think this is a valid assumption. But let's wait and see

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August 05, 2019, 05:22:39 PM
 #54

Little update.

Today Litecoin Halved.
A lot of hope was put in this event, but, as I predicted many times, nothing happened, as halving on LTC is meaningless, as SF model in LTC has very little correlation with price

It is not so much an event as a process, which will take time to develop

Though I understand that a 15% rise within a few hours is nothing out of the ordinary. Regardless, the reward has been halved and now we just have to wait patiently for a few months to see whether Litecoin halving is meaningless or not for its price. However, to claim that it won't have any effect on price is equal to claiming that supply doesn't affect it. For what it's worth, I don't think this is a valid assumption. But let's wait and see

Also Bitcoin rose 15%, so LTC/BTC is almost unchanged. It halvening were meaningful, yes, it should have impacted the cross. Contrary to other halving a lot of people is looking at this event trying to euristichally induce some consideration for the bitcoin halvening.
Was the rise already been frontrun? Maybe.
Were people trying to pump LTC to dump later? Probably.
Will LTC slowly drift to irrelevance? Almost sure.
There will be a massive transfer of value on LTC (someone will make a lot of money, someone else will be rekkt) ? Sure.


 

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August 08, 2019, 02:29:11 PM
Last edit: August 15, 2019, 11:03:31 AM by fillippone
 #55

Now that dominance is slightly going downwards Coindesk decides to publish something about it:

Bitcoin’s Surging Dominance – Is This Time Really Different?

Quote
Price measures bitcoin’s popularity. Dominance measures its popularity relative to other crypto assets. In theory this could mean a “flight to quality” as investors get spooked by market risk and switch out of smaller cap tokens into a “safer” asset. Or, it could represent growing interest in the sector as a whole, along with conviction that bitcoin has the strongest fundamentals.

Either way, it highlights that, of all crypto assets, bitcoin is the most attractive from an investor’s viewpoint. (It’s important to note that dominance can increase as the price goes down, and decrease as the price goes up – it’s a relative, not absolute, measure.)

This matters for several reasons, one of which is what it says about market sentiment. While bitcoin is a speculative asset, it can be considered less speculative than smaller cap tokens, given its relative liquidity, history and network size. Its growing dominance points to a focus on fundamentals and on relative “safety,” which depicts a more grounded level of investor participation than in the ICO-fueled boom of 2017.

While not necessarily predictive, sentiment indicators tend to be recursive – you can’t be sure the trend will continue, let alone with what energy, but positive sentiment generally has in-built inertia. If traders choose to buy based on these indicators, they reinforce them, which encourages more traders to buy, and so on.

Meh, reading the full article I think more interesting considerations were done on this thread.


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August 21, 2019, 07:46:07 PM
 #56

An interesting read:
It sums up the already know reason why dominance is a shitty indicator and proposes few correction that gives a few interesting insights:

Bitcoin’s reported market dominance is approaching 70%, but in reality it is above 90%

Quote
The main reason is that one could easily create a cryptocurrency with 1 billion premined coins, and do one trade at say 3 dollar each. This would lead to a total market capitalization of $3 billion, which would represent 1% market dominance with today’s valuations and inflate the total market capitalization.

The problem is that the calculation does not take liquidity into account. One might be able to sell one token for 3 dollars, but what happens if you want to sell 1 million? Without accounting for liquidity, market capitalization becomes a meaningless measure.

Quote
As is shown in the table below, adjusting for liquidity by calculating the volume-weighted market capitalization, bitcoin’s market dominance is pushed well above 90%.

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August 22, 2019, 07:07:37 AM
 #57


it starts by this: "By calculating the market capitalization of a coin, its price multiplied with its circulating supply". but the problem is that the supply value used is NOT circulating supply. it is the existing supply. this makes a huge difference since majority of altcoins have huge premines and practically coins that are not in "circulation". and when you deduct those the market capitalization actually becomes a more meaningful number (although still not a good thing to use for "dominance").
for example both ETH and XRP market cap would fall about 70% if you use their real circulating supply. there are tokens that would lose 90% of their market cap even!

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August 22, 2019, 12:49:08 PM
 #58


it starts by this: "By calculating the market capitalization of a coin, its price multiplied with its circulating supply". but the problem is that the supply value used is NOT circulating supply. it is the existing supply. this makes a huge difference since majority of altcoins have huge premines and practically coins that are not in "circulation". and when you deduct those the market capitalization actually becomes a more meaningful number (although still not a good thing to use for "dominance")

In fact, it is even more complicated than that

The market capitalization of a coin doesn't just fail to reflect the real circulating supply, i.e. how many coins are actually used for any activity which determines the value of a coin, it also doesn't take into account the so-called velocity of money, which tells us how often one coin changes hands on average. In simple terms, a higher velocity effectively expands the circulating supply as if there were more coins circulating than there really are. Obviously, this characteristic also determines the price and value of a coin, and it is the reason why the market cap would still remain mostly a useless metric even if the whole of coin supply was circulating

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August 23, 2019, 08:51:47 AM
 #59

It has seen over 70% recently and that is a lot, its down couple notches because price went down a bit but its still at %68 and that is a whole lot. Do you guys think that will go down because bitcoin price will go down or do you think altcoins will increase?

Both would drop the dominance a lot and I am not sure which one will happen first. I think altcoins increasing seems like not gonna happen anytime soon because for that to happen we need to have a super hype of crypto and that is really not happening for the past 1 year now, they are all falling and falling like crazy and there is no super hype going around neither so we are stuck with the option of bitcoin falling and that is not really nice for our portfolio neither. I hope altcoins going up one will happen but I am afraid other one looks more possible right now.


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August 24, 2019, 01:03:48 PM
 #60

There is a certain pattern in the fact that Bitcoin rises in price, and some altcoins fall in price.  It seems to me that many cryptocurrency users are trying to optimize their portfolios and sell risky altcoins, and they also buy Bitcoin for the proceeds while it froze at the border of $ 10,000.  I think that by the end of this year only the highest-rated cryptocurrencies will be relevant.

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